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☆ China's risk of deflation is 'serious' — one economist says it's 'time to act'
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Fears are growing that China's economy is tethering on the verge of deflation after another slate of underwhelming economic data provided more evidence of stagnating growth, renewing calls for more meaningful policy intervention. On Monday, Beijing announced that GDP for the second quarter grew 6.3% from a year ago, missing market expectations for 7.3%. "We need to see broad and persistent price pressure before we can declare deflation," said Hong Hao, Grow Investment Group's chief economist. "I think we are on the verge of deflation. The annual decline in June was China's ninth consecutive drop and its steepest since December 2015.

Persons: Hong Hao, Hong, — Organizations: Grow Investment Locations: Beijing

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The long-awaited recession might not come
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Meanwhile, China's lackluster gross domestic product figures, released yesterday, prompted Wall Street to cut their expectations of China's annual growth to around 5%. Peak oil demandIndia imported 2.2 million barrels of Russian oil per day in June. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year and oil price caps were instituted, India has become one of the leading importers of Russian oil. Buffett previously revealed Berkshire added to its initial Activision stake in a bet the deal would close and cause shares to rise.

Persons: Hong, Hong Hao, Viktor Katona, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Bitcoin, bitcoin Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Grow Investment, Activision Blizzard, Microsoft, Activision, BlackRock Locations: New York City, Asia, Pacific, India, Russia, Ukraine, Berkshire

[1/3] US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks during her meeting with China's Vice Premier He Lifeng (out of frame) at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on July 8, 2023. Yellen said nothing publicly to indicate that the U.S. was poised to ease tariffs, but commentators in China were hopeful, amid a U.S. Trade Representative review. "While U.S might continue its technological curbs on China, a reduction or exemption of non-core tariffs against China is possible." Yellen last year advocated eliminating some duties on "non-strategic" goods as a way to ease some specific costs amid high inflation. Haley has said she would push Congress to revoke China’s trade status until China curbs its alleged role in the fentanyl trade.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Lifeng, Pedro PARDO, Janet Yellen's, Biden, Harry Broadman, Donald Trump's, Premier Li Qiang, Yellen, Hong Hao, Chad Bown, " Bown, Josh Hawley, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Haley, Donald Trump, David Lawder, Andrea Shalal, Gram Slattery, Jeff Mason, Heather Timmons, Nick Zieminski Organizations: China's, WASHINGTON, . Treasury, Trump, White House, World Bank, Berkeley Research, Premier, U.S . Treasury, . Trade, China's Finance, U.S, Grow Investment, Times, Peterson Institute of International Economics, Reuters, Republican, Firebrand, Thomson Locations: Diaoyutai, Beijing, China, U.S, Washington, U.s, Donald Trump's China, CHINA, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Florida, Mexico, Cuba

☆ Yellen's China trip yields long meetings, 'cordial' tone, but no consensus
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( David Lawder | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The accomplishment of the meeting was the meeting itself, not specific issues," said Scott Kennedy, a China economics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. A senior U.S. Treasury official accompanying Yellen on her first trip to China as secretary described it as "respectful, frank and constructive," adding: "She was warmly received." Her meeting on Saturday with He, China's new economic czar, was scheduled for two hours but lasted five, followed by a "cordial" dinner, the official said. In the meantime, Yellen said the talks set the stage for more frequent U.S.-China communications at the staff level about economic issues, including areas of disagreement. A possible venue for this would be the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco in November.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, Lifeng, Scott Kennedy, Premier Li Qiang, Pan Gongsheng, Joe Biden's, Jake Colvin, Hong Hao, Hong, Colvin, Biden, John Kerry, Gina Raimondo, Xi Jinping, Wang Yiwei, David Lawder, Andrea Shalal, Ryan Woo, Ellen Zhang, Qiaoyi Li, Stephen Coates Organizations: . Treasury, U.S, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Global Times, Treasury, Premier, People's Bank of China, National Foreign Trade Council, Grow Investment, . Commerce, Renmin University, Economic Cooperation, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Washington, China's, U.S, United States, Hong Kong, Asia, San Francisco, Anchorage , Alaska

☆ Chinese regulators warn four analysts over Feb 2022 strategy report
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The research report, published in February 2022 when China was battling the pandemic, predicted that the domestic stock market would still seek bottom following a rebound, as the economy was under heavy downward pressure. Negative comments by analysts and commentators in China are often censored and have come under increased regulatory scrutiny. The warning comes as China's stock market is struggling to stand on its feet amid signs the post-COVID recovery is losing steam. Other analysts and commentators in China have been censored or come under scrutiny after negative comments in the past. Separately, China's securities watchdog last March launched a crackdown on brokerages using feng shui to predict stock market trends in their research notes, state media reported.

Persons: CSRC, Zhang Xia, Chen Gang, Geng Ruitan, Tu, Yi Huiman, Hong Hao Organizations: China Merchants Securities, China Securities Regulatory Commission, Bank of Communications International Holdings Co, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, China, Shenzhen

The easiest trade of the year is fizzling, and the lost momentum is keeping investors' money out. "I will not put any more money into stocks until all my losses are recovered," he said. Interviews with a dozen more small investors showed the sentiment to be reasonably widespread. Brokerage account creation, while volatile, likewise dropped off in April after promising momentum in February and March, China Securities Depository and Clearing data showed. "It is as if stocks are losing faith in the China recovery story," said Grow Investment Group chief economist Hong Hao.

The easiest trade of the year is fizzling, and the lost momentum is keeping investors' money out. Interviews with a dozen more small investors showed the sentiment to be reasonably widespread. Brokerage account creation, while volatile, likewise dropped off in April after promising momentum in February and March, China Securities Depository and Clearing data showed. "It is as if stocks are losing faith in the China recovery story," said Grow Investment Group chief economist Hong Hao. China's April industrial output and retail sales growth undershot forecasts as the recovery turned wobbly.

Persons: Eric Yu, Yi Huiman, Hong Hao, Wang Zaizheng, Chi Lo, Hayden Briscoe, Meng, Jason Xue, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: China Securities Regulatory, JPMorgan, China Securities Depository, Mutual, Grow Investment Group, Management, UBS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, China's, Shanghai, China, United States, Hong Kong, Asia, Pacific, Singapore

☆ Alibaba’s restructuring and Jack Ma’s homecoming are all part of China’s plan
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Ma is seen as a symbol of China’s tech industry and a barometer of the Chinese government’s support for private business. Alibaba’s restructuring is “part of [Beijing’s] strategy to shore up confidence in the private sector,” said Hong Hao, chief economist for Grow Investment Group. “[Alibaba’s restructuring plan] offers a way to limit monopoly power and platform sway,” Hong said. Unlocking valueInvestors and analysts have cheered Alibaba’s restructuring. Alibaba’s business will be split into six units: domestic e-commerce, international e-commerce, cloud computing, local services, logistics, and media and entertainment.

☆ China’s property crash is prompting banks to offer mortgages to 70-year-olds
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Some banks in the cities of Nanning, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Beijing have extended the upper age limit on mortgages to between 80 and 95, according to a number of state media reports. China’s property market is in the midst of a historic downturn. The mortgage borrower’s age plus mortgage length should not usually exceed 70 years, according to previous rules published by the banking regulator. Separately, a branch of Citic Bank has extended the upper age limit on its mortgages to 80, the paper said, citing a bank client manager. Other than Beijing, some banks in Nanning, the provincial capital of Guangxi province, have raised the upper age limit on mortgages to 80, according to the city’s official newspaper Nanguo Zaobao.

Many investors say that stocks of drugmakers and medical equipment companies, however, will likely get a more lasting lift from China's bumpy journey towards an eventual economic opening. Investors have snapped up Chinese tourism (.CSI930633), leisure (.CSI930654), retailing (.CSI930674) and food and beverage stocks (.CSI930653) over the past week. "After curbs are relaxed, China could experience the impact from surging virus cases, along with rising deaths, potentially hitting the economy," the brokerage said. "I think it's reasonable to think that as infections rise, they're going to have shortages in some areas of workers," he said. Grow Investment Group chief economist Hong Hao, warning of confusion and chaotic expectations ahead, recommended internet platform companies and food delivery firms in the short term.

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