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☆ 6 global cities most at risk of being in a real-estate bubble, according to UBS
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Only six cities are now at elevated or high risk, down from 16 last year. Miami and Los Angeles are the two US cities most at risk of a housing bubble, the report said. AdvertisementUBS released its 2024 Global Real-Estate Bubble Index report last week, and it showed bubble risks have generally declined over the last 12 months. While 16 cities worldwide were considered to be at elevated or high risk of a real-estate bubble last year, just six cities fit that description today, the report said. Cities with a score above 1.0 are considered to be at an elevated risk, and those with a score above 1.5 are considered high risk.

Persons: —, Claudio Saputelli, Matthias Holzhey Organizations: Miami, Service, UBS Locations: Los Angeles, Frankfurt, Munich, Stockholm, Hong Kong, Paris

☆ Real-estate bubble risks are dwindling across the world with higher interest rates taking froth out the market, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Higher interest rates have deflated real-estate bubbles across the world, according to UBS. Central banks have aggressively hiked borrowing costs over the past 18 months to combat inflation. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . "House price growth has suffered due to rising financing costs as average mortgage rates have roughly tripled since 2021 in most markets," they added.

Persons: —, Matthias Holzhey, St Louis Organizations: UBS, Service, Federal Reserve, St, St Louis Fed Locations: New York, Boston, San Francisco, Swiss, Zurich, Tokyo, Francisco, Los Angeles

☆ UBS says Zurich and Tokyo are the cities most at risk of being in a housing bubble. Here are the other 15 markets where they warn home prices are overvalued — and the 6 most vulnerable to declines.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

This is driving up mortgage rates after years of lower-rate policies, crushing affordability and sinking home prices in some metropolitan areas. In the note, the pair released UBS's most reading of its Global Real Estate Bubble Index. Two cities — Zurich and Tokyo — top the list and are considered to be in "bubble risk" territory by being at least 1.5 standard deviations out of their index norm (Zurich at 1.71 and Tokyo at 1.65). UBS"Such high multiples come from an excessive appreciation of housing prices in the wake of previously low interest rates," Saputelli and Holzhey said. "House prices in all these cities remain vulnerable to corrections should interest rates remain elevated for longer or continue to rise further."

Persons: Claudio Saputelli, Matthias Holzhey, Holzhey Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of India, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of, Central Bank of, Bank of Canada, UBS, Swiss, —, Tokyo —, Miami Locations: Bank of Korea, Central Bank of Brazil, — Zurich, Tokyo, Zurich, Munich, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Toronto, Geneva, Los Angeles, London, Tel Aviv, Vancouver, Amsterdam, Stockholm, Paris, Sydney

☆ BiggerPockets’ housing-market guru says he sees home prices falling up to 10% over the next 12 months with housing affordability at four-decade-lows
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

With housing affordability deteriorating, home prices are due to fall, says Dave Meyer. The BiggerPockets housing market expert said he expects a decline of up to 10% in prices. "Houses are just not affordable at these prices with these interest rates," Meyer said. Either mortgage rates would have to skyrocket, he said, or housing prices would have to continue on their torrid pace upward. Morgan Stanley strategists said in late September that they expect home price growth to end 2023 at -3% year-over-over.

☆ A 20% crash in the housing market is possible as mortgage rates continue to surge higher
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

There's a flashing red warning sign hitting one of the biggest segments of the US economy: the housing market. This is all a recipe for disaster, and it could ultimately lead to a 20% decline in housing prices, according to Pantheon Macro's chief economist Ian Shepherdson. The housing market is in free fall with "no floor in sight." Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief economist Ian Shepherdson is sounding the alarm on the housing market, warning that home prices could fall as much as 20%. The price movement has some scratching their heads, given that demand for lumber is largely tied to the housing market, which can't get out of its own way due to soaring mortgage rates.

☆ 'It's difficult to be optimistic': A UBS real estate head shared just how much downside US home prices have in his 2023 housing market outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Matthias Holzhey of UBS shared his outlook for the US housing market in 2023. The sky might not be falling yet in the US real estate market, but home values will soon start to, warns a new report from UBS. "Prices look overvalued," said Matthias Holzhey, the head of Swiss real estate at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a recent interview with Insider. How to navigate the housing market in 2023There are four more key drivers of demand in the housing market, Holzhey said: income growth, risk asset returns, interest rates, and psychology. However, today's real estate market bears little resemblance to past markets.

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