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"Given the fast-changing landscape, I believe those who move fast (with wage hikes) should become competitive." A demand made this year by Rengo, Japan's largest trade union confederation, for pay hikes of "around 5%" resulted in average wage hikes of 3.58% among major companies. Six out of 10 economists in a Reuters poll expect major firms' pay hikes in 2024 to exceed this year's. The key, however, would be whether wage hikes broaden to smaller firms and those in the regional areas. A report by the BOJ's regional branch managers in October warned wage hikes remained uneven among sectors with many firms undecided on next year's pay increments.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Takeshi Niinami, Fumio, Kazuo Ueda, Hisashi Yamada, Rengo, Atsushi Takeda, Kishida, Keita Kondo, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Kentaro Sugiyama, Sam Holmes, Leika Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Suntory Holdings Ltd, Reuters, Meiji, Life Insurance, Suntory Holdings, Bank, Japan, Hosei University, OECD, UA Zensen, Itochu Economic Research Institute, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Ukraine, Saitama

Global financial markets have been closely watching Japan's wage data, as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda regards pay growth as a key gauge to consider in deliberations about a shift in policy. Regular wages rose 1.8% in May from a year before, labour ministry data showed, the biggest gain since February 1995. The strong base pay growth boosted worker's total cash earnings, or nominal wages, by 2.5% in May, after a revised 0.8% increase logged in April. Still, real wages contracted 1.2% in May, the 14th consecutive month of year-on-year declines, as relentless consumer inflation outstrips nominal pay growth and squeezes households' buying power. On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, household spending was down 1.1%, versus an estimated 0.5% gain to mark a fourth month of decline.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Kuroda, Hisashi Yamada, Rengo, Takumi Tsunoda, Shinichi Uchida, Taro Saito, Satoshi Sugiyama, Kantaro, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: Global, Bank of Japan, Hosei University, Shinkin Central Bank Research, Nikkei, BOJ's, NLI Research, Thomson Locations: TOKYO

☆ Japan's base salaries jump most since 1995, puts Bank of Japan's policy into view
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), far right, speaks during an event at the central bank's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, May 31, 2023. Ueda said central banks need to be more careful about how they communicate with increase in their toolkits and advancements in monetary policy making. Global financial markets have been closely watching Japan's wage data, as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda regards pay growth as a key gauge to consider in deliberations about a shift in policy. Regular wages rose 1.8% in May from a year before, labor ministry data showed, the biggest gain since February 1995. The strong base pay growth boosted worker's total cash earnings, or nominal wages, by 2.5% in May, after a revised 0.8% increase logged in April.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Noriaki Sasaki, Kuroda, Hisashi Yamada, Rengo Organizations: Bank of Japan, Yomiuri Shimbun, Bloomberg, Getty, Global, Hosei University Locations: Tokyo, Japan

☆ Japan's firms offer biggest pay hikes in 30 years, wage growth broadens
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The final survey of 5,272 unions affiliated with Rengo showed an average pay hike of 3.58%, or 10,560 yen ($73.04) per month, the biggest increase since 3.9% seen in 1993. Among them, SMEs raised wages by 3.23%, also the fastest pace in three decades. What's important from now on is to bring real wages to positive territory," said Hisashi Yamada, economist and Hosei University professor. The pay hikes could provide some political support for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida who has made wages as key part of his policy agenda, as a weak yen and higher import prices drive up living costs. Big firms' summer bonus payments are seen rising 3.9%, up for a second straight year, although gains are likely to be uneven, according to a survey by Keidanren, Japan's biggest business lobby.

Persons: Rengo, Kazuo Ueda, Hisashi Yamada, Fumio Kishida, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: Rengo, Bank of Japan, Hosei University, OECD, Thomson Locations: TOKYO

Importantly, smaller firms are also starting to raise pay even as many of them face a margin crunch. Big firms offered pay hikes of 3.8% this year in annual wage talks with unions that ended in March, the largest increase in three decades. Attention has now shifted to whether small firms, which employ seven out of 10 workers in Japan, would follow suit. The BOJ's tankan business sentiment survey showed last month that small firms' current profits fell 2.7% in the last fiscal year to March, while big firms' earnings rose 11.5%. Less than half of small firms said they were able to pass on rising costs to customers as of last September, government data showed.

☆ Japan's big firms offer largest pay rises in decades
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Rengo umbrella labour group has called for a 5% pay increase. The JERC survey showed that excluding seniority-based pay, base compensation that boosts fixed labour costs accounts for just 1.08%. "We need to focus on base pay. Workers from Japan's largest group of trade unions last week struck early agreements for hefty wage hikes. Unions have historically tended to settle for relatively meagre pay hikes around 2% in recent years, as unions are inclined to cooperate with management in keeping job security rather than aggressively demanding pay rises.

☆ Japan's big firms set to offer biggest pay rises in decades
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Given that consumer inflation, at 4.1%, outpace wage hikes, pay rises of 3% or more need to continue in the coming years to sustain price stability at 2%, said Hisashi Yamada, senior economist at Japan Research Institute. "Average wage hikes that are consistent with the central bank's 2% price target are 3% which can be met this year albeit temporarily," Yamada said. Kishida's government will likely hold a joint three-party meeting with labour and management for the first time in eight years on Wednesday to ensure structural wage hikes. Workers from Japan's largest group of trade unions last week struck early agreements for hefty wage hikes. 1 automaker, and Honda, have also secured their biggest pay rises in decades.

It will also test Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's flagship "new capitalism" policy that aims to more widely distribute wealth among households by prodding firms to hike pay. World's largest car maker Toyota (7203.T) accepted a union demand for the biggest base salary growth in 20 years, while gaming giant Nintendo (7974.T) plans to lift base pay by 10%. The gain will comprise a 1.08% rise in base pay and a 1.78% increase in additional salary based on seniority, it said. Uncertainty over the sustainability of wage hikes could prod the BOJ to go slow in dialing back stimulus, some analysts say. The BOJ will probably wait until next year in doing anything radical, such as ending its bond yield control policy."

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