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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Rates are not going back to where they were before,' researcher saysHetal Mehta, head of economic research at St James's Place, discusses central bank decision making and the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
Persons: Hetal Mehta Locations: James's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUK economy has been in a bad position for more than a year, researcher saysHetal Mehta, head of economic research at St James's Place, discusses the U.K. entering a recession in the fourth quarter and longer-term issues.
Persons: Hetal Mehta Locations: James's
LONDON — U.K. inflation came in at 6.7% in September, slightly ahead of expectations and unchanged from the previous month. For August, the U.K. consumer price index surprised with a dip to 6.7%, below expectations, which sparked the Bank of England to end a run of 14 straight interest rate hikes. The bank had been hiking rates consistently since December 2021 in a bid to rein in inflation, taking its main policy rate from 0.1% to a 15-year high of 5.25% in August. The market is pricing around a 77% chance that the Bank holds rates steady again at its next meeting on November 2nd. For now, the higher for longer interest rate narrative will continue to persist," he said Wednesday in an emailed note.
Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Marcus Brookes, Brookes, Hetal Mehta, BoE Organizations: LONDON, Reuters, National Statistics, Chancellor, Bank of, Bank, Quilter Investors, Bank of England's, Bank of England Locations: Canary, London, Bank of England, British, James's
LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - Finance minister Jeremy Hunt presented less gloomy forecasts for Britain's economy at his Spring Budget on Wednesday. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsROSIER OUTLOOKA rout in global banking stocks on Wednesday overshadowed many UK-specific moves. Investments announced by Hunt such as a corporate spending tax break, a boost for defence and extra childcare support were not viewed as particularly inflationary. Unlike in the last budget, noise around windfall taxes on oil and gas companies was muted in the run-up to the budget since energy prices have fallen dramatically since then. "In general, the budget is not the big story for gilts right now, global drivers are in the driving seat," said James Smith, economist at ING.
Inflation in Europe has been impacted by higher energy prices and supply shortages. Inflation in the euro zone dropped for a second consecutive month in December, but analysts do not expect it to spark a change in tone from the European Central Bank. It follows November's headline inflation rate of 10.1%, which represented the first slight contraction in prices since June 2021. At the time, the central bank forecast an average inflation rate of 8.4% for 2022, 6.3% for 2023 and 3.4% for 2024. Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING Germany, said these numbers "are not a relief, yet, only a reminder that euro zone inflation is still mainly an energy price phenomenon."
Summary Hawkish central banks dampen hopes of peak ratesEuro zone bonds yields surgeHawkish message a reality check for markets -analystsLONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Forget a year-end rally in financial markets. The message from major central banks is loud and clear: the battle to tame inflation is far from over. Central banks in the United States, euro zone, Britain and Switzerland met on Wednesday and Thursday and all slowed the pace of aggressive rate moves. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said to expect more 50-basis-point rate increases for a period of time and that the ECB was not "pivoting" yet. Such sharp moves loosen the very financial conditions that central banks are trying to tighten in order to contain inflation.
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