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Bonds have sold off as traders reassess the path of Fed Reserve rate cuts. AdvertisementThe bond market is in sell-off mode as traders reassess the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. That would be a big surprise to traders, with the market pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis point interest rate cut from the Fed next month. AdvertisementFed officials, for their part, have indicated they're likely to move cautiously, though more rate cuts are still their base case. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she expects interest rates will fall "gradually," and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid endorsed a "cautious and gradual" approach to cutting interest rates.
Persons: Bonds, , Donald Trump, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, Trump Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, Bloomberg, Bond, Treasury Bond ETF, Federal, Market, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dallas, Kansas City, House Locations: Atlanta
Gold prices muted with U.S. inflation data in focus
  + stars: | 2024-06-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices steadied on Thursday as investors digested comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on interest rate cuts and looked forward to more U.S. economic data for policy clues. Gold prices were subdued on Wednesday ahead of crucial U.S. inflation data due this week, which could offer more clarity on the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut this year. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said "at some point" it will be time to cut interest rates. "Dips in the gold price remain relatively shallow courtesy of buyers stepping in from the sidelines on price retreats," Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said in a note. Waterer added that the $2,368 level would need to be breached for gold to surpass the highs from last week.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Yeap Jun Rong, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, IG's, Rong, Tim Waterer, Waterer Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Fed, U.S, KCM Locations: U.S
The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in July to prevent a recession. Markets are only pricing in a 10% chance of an interest rate cut in July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. AdvertisementMarkets may think it's a long-shot, but the Federal Reserve could make its first interest rate cut in July as recessionary cracks start to form in the economy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are only pricing in a 10% chance of an interest rate cut at the July policy meeting, with most market participants expecting the first interest rate cut to happen in either September of November. And with recent data showing cracks forming in the housing and labor markets, that means a rate cut will happen sooner than most expect.
Persons: , Steven Blitz, Jerome Powell, Powell, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, GlobalData, Fed
Bad economic news so far has been mostly positive for the stock market, as investors worry over whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. The greenback often rises on bad news as investors seek the safety of cash and equivalents, while the stock market gains on good news. .SPX .DXY line 2024-04-01 Stocks vs. the dollar At the same time, economic data has generally deteriorated, or at least not met Wall Street forecasts. For the most part, bad economic news likely could help convince the Fed that the time is right to start lowering interest rates. Based on the prior two months, the unemployment rate would have to rise to 4.3% in May for that to happen.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, Dow Jones, Claudia Sahm, BofA Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Citi, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New Century Advisors
Oil prices were stable on Friday as investors considered the latest comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve on interest rates amid sticky inflation, while signs of firming seasonal U.S. fuel demand lent support. Brent crude futures rose 2 cents at $81.38 a barrel at 0315 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 1 cent at $76.86. Both benchmarks settled at multi-month lows on Thursday, with Brent crude futures closing at their weakest point since January and U.S. crude futures hitting a three-month low. Gasoline demand in the U.S. reached its highest level since November, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. That helped support the market as U.S. drivers account for around a tenth of global oil demand, "making the upcoming driving season a pillar of the recovery in global demand growth", ANZ analysts said in a note.
Persons: Priyanka Sachdeva, Phillip Nova, Jerome Powell Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Energy Information Administration, ANZ, Organization of, Petroleum, OPEC Locations: Fort Stockton , Texas, U.S
Gold prices drift lower on hawkish Fed minutes
  + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices extended their record rally on Monday, supported by speculative buying and continued tensions in the Middle East, which overshadowed strong U.S. job growth in March. Gold prices fell for a third straight session on Thursday after minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting indicated that some officials were inclined to raise interest rates. Spot gold fell 0.3% at $2,370.74 per ounce, as of 0335 GMT, after falling more than 1% in the previous session. "Gold did take a bruising after the Fed minutes reminded investors that interest rate cuts are far from imminent," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. Spot silver fell 0.8% to $30.52, platinum edged 0.2% lower to $1,032.54 and palladium dropped 1.1% to $988.25.
Persons: Bullion, Tim Waterer, Waterer Organizations: Reserve, KCM, Fed, Traders, Reuters Locations: ., U.S
Dollar hovers near highest in a week after hawkish Fed minutes
  + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen l anguished just above a three-week low despite the continued threat of intervention by Japanese officials. The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major rivals including the euro , sterling and yen, was little changed at 104.89 after gaining 0.28% overnight. The dollar was little changed at 156.77 yen after rising to 156.85 overnight, the highest since May 1. Traders and analysts suspect Japan's Ministry of Finance intervened several times to support the yen following its plunge to a 34-year low of 160.245 per dollar on April 29. Bigger rival bitcoin was little changed at $69,491 after reaching $71,957 on Tuesday for the first time since April 9.
Persons: Sterling, Ether, James Kniveton, Japan's, Rishi Sunak, bitcoin Organizations: Bank of Japan, Reserve, Federal, Traders, of Finance, Bank of England, Conservatives, Labour Party, Labour, Securities
Dollar a tad softer as markets wait for Fed
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Japan's yen was at 158.05 per dollar, up nearly 0.2% in quiet trading with Tokyo markets closed for the first of the country's Golden Week holidays. "The bar is pretty high for a sustained hawkish surprise, which would in turn lift yields," he said, referring to the Fed. "The BOJ disappointment might be transcribed onto the FOMC insofar that they may be more undecided than decidedly hawkish." The Fed is seen holding its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-to-5.5% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Markets are also on guard for any intervention by Japanese authorities to contain the yen's nearly 11% fall this year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Vishnu Varathan, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Bank of, Mizuho Bank, Market Committee Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Asia, Singapore
So the question is, are we going to have issues if rates remain higher for longer?" But financial markets, despite a recent 5.5% selloff for the S&P 500, have largely held up amid the higher-rate landscape. Higher rates can be a good signHistory tells differing stories about the consequences of a hawkish Fed, both for markets and the economy. Higher rates are generally a good thing so long as they're associated with growth. Futures market pricing implies a fed funds rate of 4.32% by December 2025, indicating a higher rate trajectory.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Mandel Ngan, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Paul Volcker, David Kelly, Kelly, , Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial, Afp, Getty, LPL, Fed, Asset Management, Market, Cleveland Fed, European Union Locations: Washington , DC
Don't be fooled by Monday's bounce, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic warned. The S & P 500 entered the week down more than 5% from an all-time high reached earlier in the year. A correction is generally defined as a 10% drop from a 52-week high. "Market concentration has been very high, and positioning extended, which are typically red flags, at risk of a reversal." "The combination of these macro factors increases the downside risks, and suggests that more Defensive trading should be appropriate," he added.
Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic,
The front month U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract for May , which expires on Monday, fell 12 cents to $83.02 a barrel. Iran is the third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, according to Reuters data. ANZ analysts said in a note that volatility in the Middle East will keep oil markets "jittery". On Saturday, a blast at an Iraqi military base killed a member of a security force that includes Iran-backed groups. Separately, on Sunday, Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah said it downed an Israeli drone that was on a combat mission in southern Lebanon.
Persons: Brent, Tina Teng, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: West Texas, Chicago Federal, Energy, U.S . House, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ, Hezbollah Locations: Israel, Iran, U.S, Ukraine, China, Iraqi, Sunday, Lebanese, Lebanon, Gaza
The Bank of England could still cut interest rates in May, Morgan Stanley has said, in an increasingly rare call of confidence as market sentiment supporting such a move wanes. "We still entertain a May rate cut," chief economist Jens Eisenschmidt told CNBC's "Street Signs" on Wednesday, reiterating the bank's commitment to an earlier call. The Wall Street bank's contrarian view is now some way off consensus, which currently prices in an initial BOE rate cut in September, according to LSEG data. "In general, the central banks are all, to some extent, in the same boat. Morgan Stanley on Monday revised its ECB rate cut forecast, following an earlier revision in its Fed outlook.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jens Eisenschmidt, CNBC's, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Morgan Stanley's, Eisenschmidt, there's Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom, Europe, U.S
Investors are hoping the upcoming earnings season will help bring back this year’s banner rally. The first-quarter earnings season could get the stock rally chugging along again, some investors say. Earnings season kicks off next week with quarterly updates from Delta Air Lines, Citigroup, BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. For the millions of recent Latino immigrants in the US, construction jobs have low barriers to entry and the openings are plentiful. The crackdown comes as its rival Netflix has attributed a jump in signups from its recent crackdown on password sharing.
Persons: Stocks, FactSet, , Matthew Stith, Wells, Yung, Yu Ma, Francis Scott Key, Ramishah Maruf, Gloria Pazmino, We’re, It’s, Reinaldo Quintero, , ” Read, Samantha Murphy Kelly, Bob Iger, hasn’t, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Investors, Bartlett Wealth Management, Delta Air Lines, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, BMO Wealth Management, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNN, Disney, CNBC, Netflix Locations: New York, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, Baltimore, America, signups
3 things rattling markets this week
  + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
The S&P 500 tumbled the first two trading days of the new quarter and is down 0.8% for the week after paring back some of its losses on Wednesday. Some Fed officials revealed at the central bank’s policy meeting last month that they see fewer rate cuts than the three they forecast last December for 2024. Traders see a 63% expectation that the Fed cuts rates in June, a drop from more than 70% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “With Middle East tensions on the rise, OPEC+ supply side measures have pushed crude oil volatility down,” BofA strategists wrote in a Wednesday report. “Adding to a complex backdrop, we now estimate that improving economic growth expectations have helped push global oil markets into a deficit.”The price of gold has also climbed this week.
Persons: New York CNN — Stocks, , , Brent Schutte, Jerome Powell, , Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Brent, Michael Shvartsman, Gerald Shvartsman, Donald Trump’s, Matt Egan, “ Michael, ” Damian Williams, Bruce Garelick, ” Williams, ” Read, Joe Biden, Sean Lyngaas, China Nicholas Burns, Antony Blinken, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, Treasury, FactSet, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Hawkish, San Francisco Fed, Stanford University, Wednesday, • Cleveland Fed, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Traders, Organization of, Petroleum, West Texas, Brent, Bank of America, Trump Media, Trump Media & Technology Group, DWAC, Southern, of, Acquisition Corporation, , Microsoft, US, Department of Homeland Security, CNN Locations: New York, OPEC, Florida, of New York, Washington, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCharles Schwab's Kathy Jones: Bracing for potentially hawkish Fed meeting this weekKathy Jones, Charles Schwab chief fixed income strategist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss why investors should prep for a hawkish meeting from the Federal Reserve, whether the inflationary downtrend is still intact, and where the opportunity in fixed income exists.
Persons: Charles Schwab's Kathy Jones, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Organizations: Federal Reserve
Currency market subdued ahead of fresh U.S. economic data
  + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The currency market was sedate on Thursday, with the U.S. dollar consolidating against major peers as market players awaited more data out of the world's largest economy for clues on the direction of Federal Reserve policy. With the Fed widely expected to hold rates steady at its meeting next week, attention will be on the bank's updated economic projections. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was mostly flat at 102.77. Sources told Reuters that Japan's central bank will debate ending negative rates next week if big firms' wage talks yield strong results. Elsewhere, the euro was holding steady against the dollar at $1.0949, ahead of remarks by several European Central Bank officials on Thursday.
Persons: Kyle Rodda, Jerome Powell, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S ., PPI, Bank, Reuters, European Central Bank Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, U.S
The election is not going to change that much either way," Roberts said. The market's moves through the year, though, could be important as they have often foretold outcomes in presidential races. Biden endorses taxing the rich whereas Trump pushed through corporate tax breaks while in office. Biden endorses taxing the rich whereas Trump pushed through corporate tax breaks while in office. The trend makes the market's moves in the months ahead potentially consequential for determining the election victor.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Doug Roberts, Roberts, there's, Trump, we'll, Joe Salmond, There's, Jerome Powell, Salmond, Jerome Powell's Organizations: Federal Reserve, House, Trump, Democratic, Channel Capital Research, Biden, Fed, Thornburg Investment Management, Global, Chase, White, AFP, Getty Locations: U.S, Washington, East, Russia, Wilmington , Delaware, Washington , DC
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stuck to his script that it is not yet time to begin cutting interest rates on Wednesday in the first of two appearances this week on Capitol Hill. The Fed has taken interest levels to their highest in decades in a battle to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% annual target. “The labor market remains relatively tight, but supply and demand conditions have continued to come into better balance,” Powell said. Job vacancies have declined, and nominal wage growth has been easing.”Powell and other Fed officials have repeatedly said they will judge whether to begin lowering interest rates on the state of incoming economic data. In his testimony, Powell did acknowledge that interest rates are “likely” at their peak for this economic cycle.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell, , Lydia Boussour, EY Organizations: Capitol, Financial Services, Labor Department, ADP, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s
"The market is too narrow and policy is too tight," Seaport macro strategist Victor Cossel wrote Tuesday. Cossel said the current market breadth for the S & P 500 , the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 is rolling over into the new year. Stocks have slipped to start the week after both the S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at fresh record highs Friday . Tech stocks have led the charge that has driven the overall market higher, boosted by earnings results from Amazon and Facebook parent Meta Platforms . But the outperformance of tech stocks may come at a price to the broader market, Cossel said.
Persons: Victor Cossel, Cossel, Russell, Eli Lilly, Jerome Powell, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Seaport Research Partners, Nasdaq, Federal, Dow Jones, Tech, Amazon, Facebook, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft
The S & P 500' s latest run to a record high last week took it through an obstacle course of macroeconomic and company-specific hazards. Stocks are not at all cheap, with the S & P 500 at 20-times year-ahead earnings, which probably will mute multi-year returns. The median S & P 500 stock is flat year to date, is up 13% over the past three months, has gained 30% off its 52-week low and is within 8% of its 52-week high. On Friday, even as a majority of stocks fell with the S & P 500 gaining 1%, there were 175 NYSE new 52-week highs compared to 54 new lows. Here are the equal-weighted industrial and consumer-discretionary sectors compared to the equal-weight S & P 5600 since just after the bear-market low in October 2022.
Persons: Stocks, Craig Johnson, Piper Sandler, it's, Steve Deppe, Jobs, Jerome Powell, Friday's, Henry McVey, KKR's, Keith Lerner Organizations: Treasury, Wealth Management, Meta, Microsoft, Truist, Equity Locations: Meta, handicapping
The Fed is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the economy, former Fed official Claudia Sahm said. The Fed is the biggest risk to the soft landing." Instead, an "unnecessary" recession created by elevated interest rates would be far worse. Advertisement"The idea that the worst thing that the Fed can do is cut and then raise is dangerous," she wrote. For the Fed to reverse its rate cuts wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, Sahm said.
Persons: Claudia Sahm, , Chris Waller, Raphael Bostic, Sahm, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Jerome Powell, that's Organizations: Service, Atlanta Fed, Fed
Gold heads for worst weekly fall in six as rate-cut view tempers
  + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices have increased since the Ukraine War but have soared to record highs since the start of the Hamas-Israel war. Other factors are the weakening US dollar and expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Spot gold was little changed at $2,022.07 per ounce by 0404 GMT, but has fallen 1.3% so far in the week. Markets were betting on 139 basis points (bps) of Fed rate cuts this year, down from 150 bps a week earlier, according to LSEG's interest rate probability app, IRPR. The odds of a Fed rate cut in March have dropped to 54% from about 71% last week, according to IRPR.
Persons: Bullion, Hugo Pascal, Pascal, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Federal Reserve, hawkish Fed, U.S, Atlanta Federal Reserve Locations: Birmingham, England, Ukraine, Israel, InProved, IRPR
Gold extends slide as dollar firms on hawkish Fedspeak
  + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices extended losses on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened after hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official dampened expectations for a March interest rate cut, while traders awaited comments from more Fed speakers this week. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,023.49 per ounce, as of 0415 GMT, after stooping 1.3% in the previous session - its biggest single-day decline since Dec. 4, 2023. Flow of funds to the U.S. dollar have been a key driver impacting the gold price, said Michael Langford, chief investment officer at Scorpion Minerals Ltd, forecasting bullion to trade around $2,000/Oz in the near term. With geopolitical tensions escalating, safe-haven flows could provide a floor for the gold price. However, "the short-term fate of the gold price is likely in the hands of the bond market," Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, wrote in a note.
Persons: Michael Langford, Christopher Waller, Tim Waterer Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Scorpion Minerals Ltd, Treasury, KCM, U.S Locations: U.S
Fourth-quarter earnings season is kicking off with a mix of good and bad news. Without those six stocks, the rest of the S & P is expected to see earnings fall 6%. There's a lot riding on earnings in 2024 For the S & P 500 to increase in 2024, earnings need to expand. But with the S & P 500 up over 20% last year, the forward earnings multiple is roughly 19.6, in the very pricey range. We need higher revenues The biggest risk to higher earnings is lower revenue growth.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, General Mills, Mobileye, Nick Raich, Adam Crisafulli, BofA's Subramanian, Deutsche, Binky, Sam Stovall Organizations: Pfizer, Merck, Moderna, Bank of America, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Nike, FedEx, General, Darden, Constellation Brands, Technology, Samsung Electronics, Vital, Deutsche Bank's Locations: Wayfair, Conagra
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementSo what's turning up the heat in the economy that could herald a hawkish return? "Non-cyclical components have continued to see strong growth in particular with strong post-Covid tailwinds to restaurants, hotels, and airlines," the economist explained. That pent-up demand that gushed over the economy after the pandemic wore off is still stoking consumer spending today, according to Sløk. Cyclical components of GDP growth rebounding Apollo ManagementMeanwhile, financial conditions have been easing since Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March last year.
Persons: , Apollo, Torsten Sløk, Sløk Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Fed
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