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☆ Fed to cut rates by a quarter point with a soft landing expected, according to CNBC Fed Survey
  + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The survey shows 84% of the 27 respondents, including economists, fund managers and strategists, see the Fed cutting by a quarter percentage point, with 16% seeing a half-point decrease. That compares with 65% probability of a half-point cut now priced into fed futures markets. "That forecast is more in line with a hard landing than a soft landing." (One basis point equals 0.01%)Soft landing expectedThe major difference could be that survey respondents appear less worried about the economy overall than futures markets, and more convinced the Fed has time to enact gradual rate cuts. Seventy-four percent said the September rate cut comes in time to preserve a soft landing, with just 15% saying it's too late.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Andrew Harnik, John Donaldson, Barry Knapp, it's, Michael Englund, Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC Fed Survey, CNBC, Haverford Trust Co, Ironsides, Fed
☆ Fed could cut rates fewer times than expected as economy keeps growing, according to CNBC survey
  + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
But the possible downside of the better forecast: less Fed easing with the possibility that officials at their meeting this week forecast fewer rate cuts in 2024 they did in December. The CNBC Fed Survey respondents include economists, strategists and fund managers. And while the average recession probability is down, about 20% of respondents still say there's an even money chance or greater of a downturn in the next 12 months. "The larger-than-consensus reduction in the federal funds rate in my forecast is contingent on a recession that brings inflation down," said Robert Fry, of Robert Fry Economics. He has a 60% recession probability and sees the Fed slashing rates to 3.6% by year end from the current level of 5.38%.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Tom Williams, John Donaldson, it's, Scott Wren, Robert Fry Organizations: UNITED STATES, Federal, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs Committee, Inc, Getty, CNBC Fed Survey, Haverford Trust Co, Wells, Investment Institute, CNBC Fed, Robert Fry Economics Locations: U.S
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