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ET Wednesday showed large gender gaps for the candidates: Among men, who made up 47% of the electorate, Harris won 42% of the vote and Trump won 55%. Among women, who made up 53% of the electorate, 53% voted for Harris and 45% for Trump. Broken down by race and education, the gender gap showed even wider splits in some cases: An overwhelming 91% of Black women voted for Harris vs. 7% who voted for Trump, and 57% of college-educated white women voted for Harris vs. 41% who voted for Trump. But among white female non-college graduates, only 35% voted for Harris vs. 63% who voted for Trump. But just 14% of voters said abortion mattered the most to their votes when they were asked to choose out of five issues.
Persons: Harris, Trump, , Jeff Horwitt, Bill McInturff, , Walsh, Hillary Clinton, Biden Organizations: NBC, Trump, Democratic, Hart Research, Republican Locations: Trump
When the votes are counted in U.S. presidential election, will it be the gender gap, the income gap, the Latino vote or the media and marketing campaigns that turned out to be decisive? CNBC Senior Economics Reporter Steve Liesman sat down with four polling experts for an in-depth look into the data to see which ones could turn the election to either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. The panel included Steve Kornacki, NBC News national political correspondent; Mark Murray, NBC News senior political editor; Micah Roberts, Public Opinion Strategies partner and CNBC's Republican pollsters; and Jay Campbell, Hart Research partner and CNBC's Democratic pollster. Yes, it's likely to be the economy. See the full video above to hear the discussion.
Persons: Steve Liesman, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Steve Kornacki, Mark Murray, Micah Roberts, Jay Campbell, Hart, it's Organizations: CNBC, NBC News, NBC, Republican, Hart Research, Democratic
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPolls show a tight presidential race. Here's how a gender gap and enthusiasm could be decisiveCNBC's Steve Liesman, NBC News senior political editor Mark Murray, NBC News and MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki, Public Opinion Strategies director Micah Roberts and Hart Research partner Jay Campbell discuss the final polls from CNBC and NBC News which show a tight presidential race, and what factors in the polling data could be decisive on Election Day.
Persons: Steve Liesman, Mark Murray, Steve Kornacki, Micah Roberts, Hart, Jay Campbell Organizations: NBC, NBC News, MSNBC, Hart Research, CNBC
It’s clearer than ever after months of close polling and years of intense polarization: Who wins the 2024 presidential election could come down to tiny differences in who votes and who stays home. But an analysis of the poll also shows how the composition of the electorate and small changes in who decides to vote could lead to small but important swings in the election. The more Democratic-leaning turnout universe is one that sees more women, nonwhite voters and higher-educated voters turning out, as well as those from the cities and suburbs. And the one favoring Republicans relies on the opposite: more white people, more men, more voters without college degrees and more from rural communities. But in the meantime, the analysis shows how small changes can have a big effect on a close election.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, Harris, pollsters Organizations: NBC, , Hart Research Associates, Democratic, Trump
Just 2% of voters say they’re unsure about the choice. Trump, meanwhile, leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%) and white voters without college degrees (64%-34%). This net gender gap of 34 points is larger than the 30-point gap in October’s NBC News poll. That’s a significant change from the final 2020 NBC News poll, when Biden was ahead of Trump by more than 20 points among these voters. And when it comes to the battle for Congress, 47% of voters say they prefer Democrats control Congress, while 46% want Republicans in charge.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, , Joe Biden’s, , Jeff Horwitt, Bill McInturff, We’ve, we’ve, McInturff, — Trump, Biden, — Harris, they’ve, Trump’s, That’s Organizations: NBC, Republican, White, Trump, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, Republicans —, Democrats —, Electoral, Black, The NBC, Biden, Republican Party Locations: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, U.S
— 42% of national registered voters pick Harris, while 40% choose Trump. Comparing Trump’s and Harris’ popularityIn addition, the CNBC poll shows Trump slightly more popular than Harris nationally, with Trump’s rating at 42% positive, 48% negative (-6 net rating), while Harris' stood at 39% positive, 49% negative (-10). But their ratings are almost identical in the battleground states — 44% positive, 49% negative for Trump (-5), compared with Harris’ 43% positive, 48% negative rating (-5). That 4-point edge for Republicans is identical in the combined battleground states, 48% for Republicans to 44% for Democrats. CNBC’s poll was conducted Oct. 15-19 of 1,000 registered voters, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Persons: CNBC’s, Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Kamala Harris, Harris, ” Trump, Trump, Jay Campbell, Campbell, Micah Roberts Organizations: Republican, Democrat, Trump, America Economic Survey, NBC News, CNBC, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, Republicans Locations: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona , Georgia
In the seven battleground states, Trump leads 48% to 47%, within the 4% margin of error for that portion of the poll. The nationwide sample included 186 voters from the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. An additional 400 voters were interviewed in those states for a total sample of 586 from battleground states. Trump holds commanding leads among voters who prioritize the inflation, the economy and addressing the needs of the middle class. Harris leads on a variety of second tier issues, areas of high concern that rate below the economy.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Jay Campbell, Harris Organizations: CNBC, America Economic Survey, Trump, Voters, Hart Research, Democratic Locations: Arizona , Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
With voters citing the economy and inflation, abortion, immigration and democracy as top issues in this election, the survey tested a series of policy proposals on those topics, offering clues about which policies could move voters. The survey did not identify which party or candidate is associated with the proposal. While economic policies could move voters toward a candidate, the survey also finds that election denialism could turn them off. Voters across swing groups, including suburban women, independents, moderates and seniors, say they are less likely to support a candidate who denies the election results. The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters, 898 of whom were reached by cellphone, was conducted Oct. 4-8.
Persons: Donald Trump, Roe, Wade, , , Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona, Arroyo, , Trump, MAGA, Kamala Harris, Harris Organizations: NBC News, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, Republican, MAGA Republicans, Trump, NBC
Close elections always come down to turnout. So the bipartisan polling team behind the NBC News poll, Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research Associates, devised an experiment. What happens to the ballot test in NBC News’ brand-new national poll when you assume a turnout model that benefits the Democratic Party versus one that favors the GOP? Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied on the head-to-head ballot in the new October NBC News poll results, at 48% each. Assuming a turnout model that’s more favorable to Republicans puts Trump ahead by 2 points, 49%-47%.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris Organizations: NBC News, Hart Research Associates, NBC, Democratic Party, Republicans, Trump, Democrats, Democratic
Trump picks up the pace: From the Politics Desk
  + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( The Politics Desk | ) www.nbcnews.com   time to read: +6 min
Plus, senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down the fault lines in our new poll of Latino voters. Leading the charge for more events is Trump himself, a campaign official said, saying Trump was supposed to have a slow Sunday but insisted instead, “We got to do something,” leading to the rally in Erie, Pennsylvania. Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 54%-40% among registered Latino voters nationwide, the poll shows. “We are looking at Latino voters rather than a consolidated Latino community,” she added. Read more: Nnamdi Egwuonwu dives into how the Harris and Trump campaigns are targeting the increasingly fragmented Latino electorate in very different ways.
Persons: Donald Trump, Mark Murray, Harris, Katherine Doyle, Jake Traylor, Jonathan Allen, Trump, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, lobbed, , , Helene, Hurricane Helene, Matt Dixon, Adam Edelman, Megan Lebowitz, Brian Kemp hasn’t, Biden, Kemp, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, ” Biden, Read, There’s, Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona, Arroyo, Republican pollster Micah Roberts, Telemundo’s Julio Vaqueiro, , Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Trump, GOP, Labor, , Georgia Gov, Republican, FEMA, Democratic, NBC News, Telemundo, CNBC, Catholic, Latina, Hart Research Associates, Press Locations: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, U.S, Mexico, Erie , Pennsylvania, Butler , Pennsylvania, Valdosta , Georgia, Hurricane, Georgia, North
Similarly, Latino voters’ preference for which party controls Congress stands at 54% Democrats, 42% Republicans — a much narrower gap than in past years. Surveying 1,000 Latino voters nationwide in English and Spanish, the poll also finds a striking split on immigration between Latino voters who prioritize a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and preventing discrimination, and those who focus more on border enforcement. Sixty-two percent of Latino voters believe immigration helps more than it hurts, versus 35% who think it hurts more than it helps. In this poll, 54% of Latino voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 42% who want Republicans in charge. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Latino poll of 1,000 registered Latino voters was conducted Sept. 16-23.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, Joe Biden’s, , Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona, Arroyo, Republican pollster Micah Roberts, ” Trump, Victor Gutierrez, Gutierrez, Michelle García, Matthew Delao, Fredy Arguello, Delao, Arguello, ” Arguello, Harris ’, Biden, García Organizations: , NBC News, Telemundo, CNBC, Democratic, Trump, NBC, Republicans —, , Hart Research Associates, Republican, Democratic Party —, Young, Catholic Locations: New Jersey, Puerto Rican, Peruvian, Maryland, California, United States, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Spain, Cuba, Dominican Republic
The survey of 1,000 Latino likely voters found the Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, leading the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, by 54% to 40%. Harris's 14-point lead is the narrowest margin for a Democratic candidate among surveyed Latino voters in at least the past four elections, going back to 2012. All of these groups rate the economy poorly, with Latino voters overall about as downbeat on the economy as the rest of the country. While that's about equal to the rest of the population, it stands 11 points higher than in the NBC 2022 Latino survey. Here is a demographic profile of Latino voters from the NBC/CNBC/Telemundo survey:
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Aileen Cardona, Arroyo, Micah Roberts, Republican pollster, Harris, Trump, Harris's, Biden, That's, it's Organizations: Republican, Democratic, National Constitution Center, Republicans, NBC, CNBC, Telemundo, Trump, Hart Research, America Economic Survey Locations: Philadelphia , Pennsylvania, America
Republican views of Taylor Swift have taken a nosedive in comparison to last year, a new NBC News poll shows, weeks after the pop singer announced her endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris. Just 12% of Republicans report positive attitudes toward the singer, down from 28% last year. Among Democrats, 58% view Swift in a positive light, a slight increase from 53% in 2023. About 26% of independents have a positive attitude toward Swift, a drop from 34% in 2023. The significant shift from Republican voters has pushed Swift’s overall favorability rating among registered voters lower than last year, decreasing from 40% in 2023 to 33% this year.
Persons: Taylor Swift, Kamala Harris, Swift, Jeff Horwitt, Democratic pollster, Bill McInturff, Horwitt, Harris, Donald Trump, ” Swift, Lady, , Sen, JD Vance, Trump’s, , Trump, TAYLOR SWIFT, ” Harris Organizations: NBC, Republican, Hart Research Associates, Democratic, NBC News Locations: R, Ohio
Two in three voters say the country is on the “wrong track,” as voters weigh whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump would be better able to change that less than two months from Election Day. The latest NBC News national poll finds 65% of registered voters surveyed earlier this month say the country is on the wrong track, while 28% say it’s on the right track. “While the wrong track data is now under 70% for the first time since September 2022, it is still a terrible 65% for the party in power,” Horwitt said. NBC News surveys have found steadily high rates of voters saying the country is on the wrong track for years — and especially since the coronavirus pandemic began in March 2020. But Harris does have an advantage over Trump when voters were asked which candidate better represents change, with 47% saying Harris and 38% saying Trump in the poll.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Jeff Horwitt, Bill McInturff, ” Horwitt, McInturff, Harris, Trump Organizations: NBC News, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, GOP, Republicans, NBC, Trump
Bernie Moreno, Republican Senate candidate for Ohio, at the RNC in Milwaukee, Wis., on July 16. “Honestly I think Bernie is heading in the right direction but handed Sherrod an opening with that.”Democrats have been hammering Republicans across the country on the abortion issue. Some Republicans warned that the party’s failure to counter abortion attacks cost them crucial seats that year. In 2022, exit polling found Democrats had an 11-point advantage on the issue of abortion. And in this new NBC poll, Harris’ advantage was just under 20 points.
Persons: Chuck Todd, Kamala Harris, Roe, Bridget Bowman, Adam Edelman, Henry J, Gomez, Bernie Moreno’s, Bernie Moreno, Eva Marie Uzcategui, Sherrod Brown, “ Bernie oof, , Moreno, Bernie, Sherrod, Democratic Sen, Jacky Rosen of, Joe Biden’s, Donald Trump, Harris, Gail Gitcho, , Sam Brown, Pennsylvania’s Dave McCormick, Larry Hogan —, Sen, Rick Scott, hasn’t, Trump, Joe Biden, Republican Bill McInturff, Jeff Horwitt, Biden, I’d, Trump’s, it’s, Chuck → That’s Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Gomez Republicans, Ohio, Republican, RNC, Bloomberg, Getty, Democratic, Democrats, Republicans, NBC News, GOP, didn’t, Trump, Hart Research, Biden Locations: Milwaukee, Wis, Ohio, Spanish, Jacky Rosen of Nevada, Florida
Elon Musk’s support among Democrats has withered to a new low as he has embraced Republican politics, according to a national NBC News poll. Only 6% of Democrats in the poll, which was conducted Sept. 13-17, said they had positive feelings about Musk, while 79% said they had negative feelings. The numbers were flipped for Republicans, with 62% having positive feelings toward him and 14% negative feelings. Musk didn’t respond to a request for comment Tuesday. Overall public support for Musk is negative, with 34% holding positive views and 45% negative views, according to the poll.
Persons: Elon, Donald Trump, , , Jeff Horwitt, Democratic pollster, Bill McInturff, ” Horwitt, Musk, Kamala Harris Organizations: Republican, NBC News, Hart Research Associates, Democratic, SpaceX, Bloomberg, NBC, Trump, Democrats
While it was an asset to Biden in polling against Trump, it appears to be a much bigger advantage for Harris. And in this new NBC poll, Harris’ advantage was just under 20 points. It’s obvious at this point that Trump will win men by close to double digits, ditto with Harris among women. But many voters have seen "Vice President Kamala Harris" as a fresher candidate, including those who previously viewed Trump as a better steward of the economy. That would spell doom for Democrats' Senate majority.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, hasn’t, Harris, Trump, Joe Biden, Republican Bill McInturff, Jeff Horwitt, Biden, Clinton, Roe, Wade, Dobbs, George W, Bush, “ Bidenomics, I’d, don’t, it's, It’s, he’s, Trump’s, he’ll, Jim Justice, Joe Manchin, Democratic Sen, Jon Tester, doesn’t, won’t Organizations: Trump, NBC, Republican, Hart Research, NBC News, Biden, Democratic, Republicans, nab, Senate, GOP Gov, Democrat, Democrats, GOP Locations: Trump, Arizona, North Carolina, stoke, Montana, Florida, Texas, Maryland , Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Maryland, Maine, Kansas, Alaska, , Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire , Colorado, Ohio , Pennsylvania
Why Trump is polling better in Georgia than North CarolinaBy Steve KornackiThe latest round of New York Times/Siena College state polls is a continuation of what has become a pattern: Donald Trump seems to be faring slightly better in Georgia than in North Carolina. And Trump is up by 2 points in North Carolina, where he prevailed by 1.3 points four years ago. And yet — at least in polling — it’s Georgia, not North Carolina, where Trump seems better positioned. According to exit polling, Trump won the noncollege white vote in each state by roughly the same margin in 2020: 59 points in Georgia and 57 points in North Carolina. It’s a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has over those early voters.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Ben Kamisar, Steve Kornacki, Donald Trump, Trump, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Mark Robinson, we’re, Harris, , Bill McInturff, Republican pollster, Jeff Horwitt, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Trump, New York Times, Siena College, Times, Peach, GOP, Democratic, it’s, Republicans, Republican, Hart Research Associates, Wall Locations: Georgia, North Carolina, Siena, Democratic Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, Durham, it’s Georgia, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,
Half of registered voters plan to vote early this fall, new figures from the September NBC News poll show, with Democrats continuing to run up the score among early voters and Republicans getting stronger backing from those who plan to vote in person on Election Day. It's a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has over those early voters. The massive political difference of early and Election Day voters is the latest evidence of a dramatic and enduring shift in the Trump years. And with that jump came a massive partisan difference — future President Joe Biden led among early voters by 26 points in the survey, while Trump led with Election Day voters by 29 points. But while the share of voters planning to vote early has dropped between the end of 2020 and now, the major partisan split remains.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, Harris, Bill McInturff, Republican pollster, Jeff Horwitt, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden Organizations: NBC, Republicans, Republican, Hart Research Associates, Trump, Wall, Election
Two-thirds of voters say their family income is falling behind the cost of living, and voters ranked the cost of living as their top concern in the election. Harris leads on abortion, fitness and change; Trump is ahead on the key issues of the border and inflationThe NBC News poll also tests Harris and Trump on 13 different issues and presidential qualities. But in this new poll, Harris is now at 48% positive, 45% negative (+3). And 66% of voters say their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living. Meanwhile, 65% of voters say the country is on the wrong track, compared to just 28% who say it’s heading in the right direction.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden’s, Harris ’ favorability, George W, Bush’s, , Biden, ” Harris, , Kamala Harris ’, , Jeff Horwitt, Democratic pollster, Bill McInturff, What’s, aren’t, ” Horwitt, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Jill Stein, Chase Oliver, Harris ’, George H.W, Ross Perot, That’s, it’s Organizations: NBC News, NBC, Trump, Hart Research Associates, Democratic, Republican, , Biden, Black, House Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't believe Trump will get a huge bounce out of the assassination attempt, says Frank LuntzFrank Luntz, pollster and political strategist, and Jeff Horwitt, Hart Research partner and pollster, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest developments int he assassination attempt against former President Trump, the likely impact on the 2024 race, and more.
Persons: Trump, Frank Luntz Frank Luntz, Jeff Horwitt, Hart Organizations: Hart Research
According to the poll, 64% of registered voters say they have a high level of interest in November's election — registering either a "9" or a 10" on a 10-point scale of interest. The lowest-ever level of high election interest in the poll during a presidential cycle was in March 2012 — at 59%. This election cycle, high interest has been both low and relatively flat for months, according to the poll. By party, the current poll shows 70% of self-identified Republicans saying they have high interest in the upcoming election, versus 65% of Democrats who say this. "They just aren't low interest," McInturff said of young voters.
Persons: Derrick Simonson, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kennedy, Devin Fletcher, he's, Fletcher, wouldn't, Jeff Horwitt, Bill McInturff, , McInturff, Republican pollster Organizations: Wisconsin, Central Assembly, NBC News, Republican, Biden, Trump, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, NBC, Independents Locations: Douglas County, Superior , Wisconsin, U.S, Wayne , Michigan, New Jersey, New York
Evelyn Hockstein | David Swanson | ReutersAmericans' views on the economy have improved modestly, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey, helping President Biden pull even with Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup. But former President Trump holds a commanding lead on several economic issues, like inflation, taxes and immigration, that voters say are most important in this election. The survey of 1,001 Americans across the country showed 46% of voters choose Trump and 45% picking Biden in a one-on-one match with 10% undecided. Younger Democrats, in fact, are evenly split on the presidents handling of foreign policy. While those issues look to be dragging on the president's approval, he has received a boost from somewhat better overall views on the economy.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Evelyn Hockstein, David Swanson, Biden, Trump, Jay Campbell, Hart, Micah Roberts, it's, they've Organizations: Reuters, CNBC, America Economic Survey, Trump, Biden, Hart Research, Democratic, Republican
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSpecial counsel Robert Hur did a 'political hit job' on Joe Biden, says Hart Research's Jeff HorwittFrank Luntz, FIL Inc. pollster and political strategist, and Jeff Horwitt, Hart Research partner and Democratic pollster, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss President Biden's press conference Thursday night, concerns over his age, state of the 2024 race, and more.
Persons: Robert Hur, Joe Biden, Hart, Jeff Horwitt Frank Luntz, Jeff Horwitt, Biden's Organizations: Inc, Hart Research, Democratic pollster
And Biden's deficit versus Trump on handling immigration and the border is greater than 30 points. All together, these numbers explain why the poll shows Trump leading Biden by 5 points among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 general-election matchup, 47% to 42%. "What is most concerning is the erosion of Biden's standing against Trump compared to four years ago," Horwitt said. That said, the poll shows improving attitudes about the economy, with the share of voters believing the economy will get worse in the next year declining 14 points since October 2022. The two men are essentially tied on the issue of protecting democracy, with 43% of voters preferring Biden and 41% picking Trump.
Persons: Joe Biden, Wade, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden, Jeff Horwitt, Bill McInturff, Horwitt, Organizations: Force, Reproductive, NBC News, Biden, Trump, NBC, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, Republican, GOP, U.S . Locations: Washington ,, Israel, Trump, Biden's, Iowa, New Hampshire, U.S, Jordan, Michigan
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