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☆ Betting markets nailed Trump's decisive win — and it's a good reminder they can be more accurate than polls
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-09 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Prediction markets swung in favor of Trump in the weeks before his victory, as polls showed a virtual tie. Proponents point to a number of factors that make betting markets more accurate. That was still hours before major news outlets called the electionPrediction site founders and researchers have long argued that betting markets are more accurate than traditional polling. I think this is the dawn of a new era for prediction markets, and prediction markets are here to stay," Mansour said. If they don't improve, the betting markets could replace them entirely, he predicted.

Persons: —, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Trump, They've, Tarek Mansour, Mansour, Harry Crane, Northwestern University's Thomas Miller, Miller, Biden, Harris, Crane, Davide Accomazzo Organizations: Trump, Service, Rutgers University, BI, Northwestern, Pepperdine Graziadio Business

☆ Americans are able to bet on the US elections again after a legal fight
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Americans can bet on the outcome of US elections following a legal fight. Last month, Kalshi briefly listed bets on congressional election outcomes before the CFTC shut them down. On Wednesday, prediction market Kalshi got the go-ahead to take bets on congressional elections after a months-long legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That makes it one of the only options for Americans to bet on election outcomes, and the only legal one for Americans to wager large amounts of money. The court's decision comes just five weeks before the elections, and follows years of legal battles between prediction markets and the CFTC.

Persons: Kalshi, —, CoinDesk, Harry Crane Organizations: CFTC, Service, Futures Trading Commission, Federal, Kalshi, Senate, Rutgers University Locations: New York, New Zealand

Imitation is said to be the sincerest form of flattery — although Twitter owner Elon Musk may not see it that way. The decisions to lock all three out of their Twitter accounts come as Musk, a self-proclaimed "free speech absolutist," draws intense scrutiny for how he handles speech issues on the platform. Griffin, Klein and Sommer all appeared to change their account names on their verified profiles to "Elon Musk" without indicating that they were parodying his account. As of Monday morning, many Twitter accounts still featured "Elon Musk" in their display names, while others added the "parody" disclaimer. In a caption to one of the screenshots, Klein wrote: "Comedy is dead elon musk killed it."

☆ Elon Musk bans impersonation without parody label on Twitter raising questions about free speech commitment
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Lora Kolodny | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Muhammed Selim Korkutata | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesAfter several celebrity and blue-check verified Twitter users changed their accounts to mimic the social network's new owner Elon Musk, he called for a swift change to policy enforcement. Musk wrote on Sunday that, moving forward, Twitter will now permanently suspend impersonators' accounts without warning if they are not clearly labeled as parody. In May, after he agreed to buy Twitter, Musk argued against lifetime bans and said he would reverse one on Donald Trump. The platform would not usually jump to a permanent ban of a user's account for impersonation prior to Musk's takeover. Twitter and Elon Musk did not immediately respond to a request for comment or confirmation as to whether Sommer and Griffin were permanently banned.

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