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☆ Before the Fed decision, all eyes will be on this big Treasury debt announcement Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Olivier Douliery | Afp | Getty ImagesAuctions of government debt, normally routine events for the Treasury Department, have suddenly become very important to financial markets. That's why an announcement Wednesday on refunding, entailing the size of auctions as well as the duration mix of the debt that will be issued, is expected to draw even more market interest. Indeed, the two entities are both pivotal in determining how the U.S. is going to manage its mammoth debt load. That symbiotic relationship will be on full display this week when the Treasury Department makes its refunding announcement Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the Fed follows with its decision on interest rates that same day at 2 p.m.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Olivier Douliery, Josh Emanuel, Emanuel, Morgan Stanley, Stanley Druckenmiller, Druckenmiller, Alexander Hamilton, Paul Tudor Jones, she's, Dhingra, Thomas Simons Organizations: Treasury, Foreign Investment, United States, Treasury Department, Afp, Getty, Federal Reserve, Duquesne Capital, Robin Hood Foundation, Jefferies Locations: Washington ,, refunding, Wilshire, U.S

☆ US Treasury seen boosting auction sizes as budget deficit worsens
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-29 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A bronze seal for the Department of the Treasury is shown at the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, U.S., January 20, 2023. Investors are playing close attention to this week's quarterly refunding announcement as a sharp jump in long-term Treasury yields has been partly attributed to concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit. So far this year, the Treasury has issued about $1.6 trillion of additional bills and roughly $1.04 trillion in longer-term debt. The Treasury is also likely to announce a buyback program for a possible launch in January, aimed at improving bond market liquidity, analysts said. The projected increase in longer-term deficits in the coming years, however, will keep Treasury raising auction sizes, analysts said.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Guneet Dhingra, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's Dhingra, Tom Simons, Zachary Griffiths, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Megan Davies, Jamie Freed Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, TD Securities, Treasury, Jefferies, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina

Like many, they home in on the outsized drop in used-car prices - one of the key aggravators of 'core' inflation that at 4.8% is still well above the now sub-3% headline CPI rate. Pointing to four straight months of ebbing 'trimmed mean' inflation measures of core inflation - which strip out high and low outliers - the Morgan Stanley team doubt June was a bum steer and see core disinflation more "a trend rather than a headfake". Inflation surprisesFed estimates of R* natural interest rateReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsR-STAR GAZINGOthers doubt the optimism, of course. And it's the latter that homes in on the prospect of an inflation undershoot. Further Fed tightening after this month, then, could well see markets start to consider inflation actually undershooting 2% targets after all - but dragging recession back onto the dashboard to boot.

Persons: it's, Morgan Stanley, Christopher Waller, Guneet Dhingra, Allen Liu, Janet Yellen jived, Mike Dolan Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters, Barclays, Global, Bank of America, Treasury, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Intriguingly

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