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Valerie Plesch | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Sentiment in markets, it seems, was buoyed by encouraging comments from the Fed. The Fed, in other words, is keeping a close eye on the economy and wants to make sure it maintains its smooth landing. It's as if Stephen Sondheim's musical "Into the woods to get the money," markets are merrily singing.
Persons: Valerie Plesch, Gregory Daco, Goldman Sachs, Stephen Suttmeier, Philip Jefferson reemphasized, we're, Mike Bailey, Stephen Sondheim's, Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Sarah Min Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, CNBC, Brent, Bank of America, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Apple, Micro Computer, Fed, FBB Capital Partners Locations: USA, Washington, Florida, U.S, Israel
Gregory Delpeche, 49, a city hospital worker, was shot Sept. 15 while he was riding the L train. He suffered a traumatic and significant brain injury, according to the notice of claim, which is the first step in filing a lawsuit against the city. Two officers opened fire on the man with the knife after he entered the station without paying his fare and refused to drop the weapon. The video shows the officers follow Mickles up the stairs to a platform. The officers follow him out and he runs in the direction of one officer, who runs backwards.
Persons: Gregory Delpeche, Derell, John Chell, , Mickles, Gregory, Nick Liakas Locations: New York City, Brooklyn, Delpeche, Delpeche’s
New York CNN —The stock market is racking up record highs again. Investors are wasting no time moving into riskier assets from bitcoin to tech stocks after last week’s long-awaited rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Fresh data this week has offered further encouragement that the economy is on solid footing. Applications to refinance a mortgage soared 20% last week from the prior week, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data. Meanwhile, tech shares have continued to gain this week on rate cut optimism and after Micron reported strong earnings.
Persons: Dow, FactSet, , Gregory Daco, Freddie Mac, Bitcoin Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Mortgage Bankers Association, Investors, Employers, Micron, Nvidia, Meta, Financial Times Locations: New York, China, Saudi Arabia
The NYPD on Friday released body-worn camera footage from a weekend shooting at a Brooklyn subway station that started as a confrontation between police and an apparent fare-beater who they have said charged at officers with a knife. According to police and surveillance video from the station, Mickles jumped a turnstile at the subway station just after 3 p.m. Sunday, right in front of two officers. When a train pulls into the station, Mickles backs onto it once the doors open. All shots were fired by NYPD officers, authorities have said. “There was no need for any bullets to fly in the subway station, especially in a setting where the officers put innocent bystanders at risk.
Persons: Gregory Delpeche, Mickles, Jonathan Fink, , Fink, , , Bystander’s, Nick Liakas, Gregory, ” Liakas, Derell Mickles “, Tasers, Thomas Donlon, John Chell, Loyda Colon, Chris Banks, Eric Adams, ” Adams, Mickles “ Organizations: Woodhull Hospital, NYPD, ” Police, Communities United, Police Reform, New, York City, “ Police Locations: Brooklyn, Brownsville, New York City, York
How Fed rate cuts affect the global economy
  + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Carlos Waters | In Carloswaters | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions can influence the trajectory of the U.S. economy. Changes to the Fed's interest rate can influence the cost of loan products such as mortgages and the value of cash, bonds and stocks. The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rate comes after months of shaky labor market data in the U.S. Fed decisions can also impact foreign exchange markets given their effect on the value of U.S. dollars, the global reserve currency. Economists at the Fed write that China's central bank has managed the value of the yuan to help the country achieve its goals on trade.
Persons: Gregory Daco, Federal Reserve Board they're, Reena Aggarwal, they've, Freya Beamish, Beamish Organizations: Federal, Market Committee, International Monetary Fund, U.S, European Central Bank, IMF, Federal Reserve Board, Georgetown, Psaros, CNBC, People's Bank of, Federal Reserve, TS Lombard Locations: U.S, EY, United States, People's Bank of China, China
It’s also a sign of confidence from Fed officials that inflation has come under control just enough to comfortably dial back policy. Typically, in the lead-up to a Fed policy decision, Wall Street and economists are in alignment on what to expect. But investors’ wagers for a half-point cut ramped up on Monday; and as of Tuesday afternoon, federal funds futures contracts were pricing in a 63% chance of a jumbo rate cut, up from around 30% on Thursday, according to the CME Group. As inflation skyrocketed in 2021 and 2022, American employers pumped out jobs and the unemployment rate declined to half-century lows. The Fed eventually responded to the country’s inflation problem with its bitter medicine of high interest rates.
Persons: It’s, Christopher Waller, Elizabeth Warren, Robert Kaplan, Bill Dudley, , Powell, ” Gregory Daco, , ” Julia Hermann Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Street, CME, Fed, Democratic, Dallas Fed, CNBC, Former New York, Bloomberg, Dow, Labor, New York Life Investments, CNN
Why the Fed is stressed about presidential elections
  + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
New York CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sent investors mixed messages on Tuesday during his semiannual testimony to Congress. Powell is stressed about the election: Powell was asked by multiple senators about White House politics, which he dodged. While the Fed head noted that policy decisions are data dependent, “elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” he said. The September Fed meeting will be “live”: Powell noted multiple times that every Fed policy decision is made “live” using the latest available economic data – in other words, decisions aren’t made in advance. About 75% of investors think the Fed will cut rates, and about 25% think they’ll remain the same.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, , Donald Trump, reappoint Powell, , Joseph Brusuelas, Trump, Gregory Daco, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, Larkin, don’t, aren’t, David Rubenstein, he’ll, Airbnb, Isabelle Chapman, Majlie, Puy Kamp, Audrey Ash, Chris Isidore . Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN — Federal, White, , Reserve, RSM, Federal Reserve, US Consumer, Treasury, Fed, Economics, Washington DC, Jackson, CNN, Boeing, Alaska Airlines Locations: New York, Powell, Washington, Alaska
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's time for the Fed to 'recalibrate' monetary policy, says EY-Parthenon's Gregory DacoGregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Banking Committee, outlooks on rate cuts, and more.
Persons: Parthenon's Gregory Daco Gregory Daco, Steve Liesman, Jerome Powell's Organizations: Fed, Banking Locations: EY
Read previewHey, America, we totally understand if you're not feeling so great about the economy. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. If you're interested in learning more about what's going on with the economy take a look at the charts below. Unemployment rates in the US have been lowThe unemployment rate did climb from 3.8% in March to 3.9% in April, but that's still low. However, just because we aren't in a recession doesn't mean the economy is perfect.
Persons: , We're, Harris, David Kelly, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Gregory Daco, Kelly, Daco, Alemán, Raymond James doesn't Organizations: Service, Guardian, Business, Morgan Asset Management, Real Locations: America
You’d think that would mean the economy is coasting, since periods of low unemployment are generally associated with higher rates of economic prosperity. That seems to be the case with a lot of recent economic data: No piece of good news comes without other evidence that give economists pause. “I wouldn’t give the economy a clean bill of health,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY. But given consumer spending is one of the biggest drivers of the economy, a pullback can have adverse effects, too. The uglyThe biggest flashing red light in the economy right now is the level of debt people are racking up.
Persons: Zers, , Gregory Daco, Joe Biden, there’s, Donald Trump’s, Here’s what’s, Christopher Waller, ” Waller, ” David Alcaly, Daco, ” Sung Won Sohn Organizations: New, New York CNN, EY, of Labor Statistics, Federal, Gov, Lazard, CNN, New York Fed, Loyola Marymount University, SS Locations: New York, Wisconsin
New York CNN —Even after years of inflation, geopolitical chaos and recession in Europe, the US economy remains robust and resilient. Unemployment rose to 3.9% last month, lower-income consumers are spending less and businesses are limiting employee hours and pay. A recent survey by Santander Bank of its customers found that while inflation fears have largely subsided, middle-income Americans are pessimistic about the economy. Those Americans could still be suffering, but their stories are obscured by data that paints a broad picture of a resilient economy. Piepszak, meanwhile, now leads the company’s newly combined commercial and investment bank with her co-CEO Troy Rohrbaugh.
Persons: , Gregory Daco, haven’t, Skyler Weinand, Regan, , ” Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, Bryan Mena, What’s, Jamie Dimon, Here’s, Dimon, he’s, , ” Dimon, can’t, “ Dimon, Marianne Lake, Jennifer Piepszak, Piepszak, Troy Rohrbaugh, Rohrbaugh, Mary Erdoes, Jeremy Barnum, Daniel Pinto, COOs Gordon Smith, Smith, Satya Nadella, Bing Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Regan Capital, Santander Bank, Hartford Funds, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Microsoft Locations: New York, Europe, Redmond, Washington
1 in 7 Gen Z credit card users are ‘maxed out’
  + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
CNN —Ariel Barnes plunged into a credit card debt spiral in college, and a decade later she’s yet to escape. Barnes, a manager of gift processing at Jackson State University, has maxed out seven credit cards and is struggling to make minimum payments on $30,000 of credit card debt. Roughly one in seven (15.3%) Gen Z credit card borrowers have maxed out their credit cards, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. For instance, the median Gen Z borrower’s credit limit is just $4,500, compared with $16,300 for Millennials and $21,800 for Gen X, the NY Fed said. There’s never a good time to carry a credit card balance, but right now is arguably the worst time.
Persons: CNN — Ariel Barnes, Barnes, ” Barnes, Baby Boomer, Xers, , “ I’ve, Zers, Ted Rossman, Gregory Daco, ” Daco, haven’t, X, it’s, There’s, That’s, Daco, CNN’s Alicia Wallace Organizations: CNN, Jackson State University, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed, NY Fed, Bankrate.com, Wall, NY, Federal Locations: Jackson , Mississippi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The Federal Reserve is expected to once again hold interest rates steady on Wednesday. Some predictions also do not forecast any interest rate cuts until the second half of the year. AdvertisementIt's probably still not time for the nation's central bank to cut interest rates just yet. AdvertisementGiven that inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, it's looking like rate cuts might not come until the second half of 2024. "Inflation has continued to run hot and there is no compelling need for the Fed to cut interest rates until they're comfortable with where inflation is headed."
Persons: Powell, , It's, Julia Pollak, Jerome Powell, Gregory Daco, Greg McBride Organizations: Federal, Service, Fed Locations: Washington
US real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter. While a slowdown was expected for the first quarter, the forecast was 2.5%. AdvertisementAmid US job growth above forecasts and accelerating inflation, the US economy in the first quarter of this year slowed more than expected. A news release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis out Thursday showed US real gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of 1.6%. "Looking ahead, we see the economy gently cooling as slower labor demand, easing wage growth, stubborn inflation, and tight credit conditions constrain private sector activity," Daco said.
Persons: , Gregory Daco, EY, Daco Organizations: Service Locations: That's
Gross domestic product, the sum of all goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, is expected to post a 2.4% annualized growth rate for the first quarter, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast. If that estimate is accurate, it would mark a step down from the 3.4% growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and just a touch less than last year's 2.5% full-year growth rate. "The U.S. economy is still very resilient, supported by a solid labor market that continues to support robust income growth and in turn, consumer spending activity," EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco said. "We are seeing a little bit of cooling in terms of the consumer spending momentum. But there isn't any form of retrenchment that would be alarming in terms of future income trends and in terms of future consumer spending trends."
Persons: Dow, Gregory Daco, Daco, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Spencer Hill Organizations: Wall, Gross, Atlanta Federal, Commerce, Commerce Department Locations: U.S, Atlanta
The Yemen-based branch of Al Qaeda said on Sunday that its leader, Khaled Batarfi, had died. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, known as A.Q.A.P., released a video announcing Mr. Batarfi’s death, showing images of him wrapped in a white funeral shroud overlaid with a black Al Qaeda flag. The United States government once considered Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to be one of the world’s most dangerous terrorist organizations. The United States previously offered a $6 million reward for information about Mr. al-Awlaki, and $5 million for tips about Mr. Batarfi. Born in Saudi Arabia, Mr. Batarfi traveled in the 1990s to Afghanistan and fought alongside the Taliban before joining Al Qaeda’s branch in Yemen, according to a U.S. informational sheet about him.
Persons: Al Qaeda, Khaled Batarfi, Batarfi’s, , Gregory D, Johnsen, , Ibrahim Al, Batarfi, Saad bin Atef, Awlaki Organizations: Al, United, Gulf States Institute Locations: Yemen, Al, Al Qaeda, United States, American, Washington, Sudanese, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda’s
Washington, DC CNN —Americans racked up a record amount of credit card debt in 2023, soaring past a trillion dollars. “Consumers still have a lot of money left over to be able to spend, so the credit card data is often misinterpreted,” Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial, told CNN. According to a LendingTree analysis of more than 350,000 credit reports, the average unpaid credit card balance was $6,864 in the fourth quarter. Overall, US household debt (including credit card balances) rose to a new high of $17.5 trillion in the fourth quarter, up 1.2% from the prior three-month period. So, while there certainly isn’t a shortage of economic hurdles bedeviling people’s budget — and credit card debt has surged — the big picture indicates that, so far, Americans (and their economy) remain healthy.
Persons: ” Russell Price, Price, haven’t, market’s, ” Gregory Daco, ” Lara Rhame, Laura, Jensen Huang, Christine Lagarde, Virgin, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, John Williams, Papa, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, fuboTV, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, Adriana Kugler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Workers, New York Fed, Consumers, Ameriprise, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, . New York Fed, Employers, Soaring, FS Investments, Nvidia, Huawei, AMD, Microsoft, Broadcom, US Commerce Department, Central Bank, eBay, Smucker, Urban Outfitters, Global, Board, TJX, Monster Beverage, Baidu, HP, Paramount Global, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Dell Technologies, Papa John’s, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, P, China’s National Bureau, Statistics, Pearson, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, ., EY, Santa Clara, Singapore, Shenzhen, China, Beijing, CAVA
Elena Perova | Istock | Getty ImagesJust ahead of the holiday season, Walmart had encouraging news for inflation-weary shoppers: Prices on food and other staples were falling instead of rising. But the retail giant backpedaled this week, saying higher prices on many grocery items and household staples like paper goods have stuck. Food prices climbed 2.6%, fueled by a 5.1% jump in prices for food away from home, a category that includes restaurant meals and vending machine purchases. That gives their makers the ability to keep raising prices to mitigate higher costs, even as their volume drops. Even some of the biggest U.S. brands have signaled that consumers' tolerance of higher prices has worn thin.
Persons: Elena Perova, John David Rainey, Coke, James Quincey, Gregory Daco, airfares, Tyson, Fernando Fernandez, Arun Sundaram, Kraft Heinz, Chocolate, Hershey, Edward Jones, Brittany Quatrochi, Sundaram, Pringles, Kellanova, Heinz, Stefani Reynolds, Brad Thomas, CFRA's Sundaram, Thomas, Frederic J, Brown, Oscar Mayer, Greg Melich Organizations: Istock, Walmart, CNBC, Federal, Depot, Pew Research Center, Maine Foods, Unilever, Nestle, Bloomberg, Getty, Planters, Target, Kroger, AFP, U.S, PepsiCo, Frito, Evercore ISI Locations: Hershey , Pennsylvania, North America, Washington ,, Rosemead , California
Yet two months into 2024, Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues seems to have nearly pulled off what many would have called a miracle not long ago. Between a rock and a hard placeThe January Fed meeting minutes reinforced policymakers' careful approach for the months ahead. AdvertisementTo be sure, as far as policy expectations, markets have only recently arrived on the same page as the Fed. "The Fed doesn't want to be seen as having allowed inflation to reignite," he added. "The Fed doesn't want to undo all the good work they've done, and needlessly push the economy into a recession."
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell, James McCann, Abrdn, Gene Goldman, CME's, Gregory Draco, Draco, Larry Summers, Summers, Cetera's Goldman, Goldman, Abrdn's McCann, McCann Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Co, Fed, Cetera Investment Management, Bloomberg
And while the economy usually comes out on top as the issue for most voters, there are doubts over whether even a good economy is enough for Joe Biden to win a second term. Certainly, the improving economy – and most importantly an inflation rate that is trending back to the Federal Reserve’s desired 2% annual target – should be an asset for Biden. “Obviously perceptions of Biden and Trump are largely baked in and have been for a long time” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “We’re playing at the margins at best.”For Democrats, running on a good economy will present its own challenges. The wing nuts have disproportionate power.”Ramamurti still believes that Biden should emphasize the economy, saying, “I’m of the view that good news is good news.
Persons: Joe Biden, , Jose Torres, ” Powell, , Biden, Al Capone, Alejandro Mayorkas, Bharat Ramamurti, Trump, Lee Miringoff, David Walker, Walker, “ There’s, ” Ramamurti, Ramamurti, Gregory Daco, Pollsters, Mark Zandi Organizations: Federal, Biden, Fed, Interactive, Republicans, Democrats, CBS, Trump, GOP, Homeland, National Economic Council, Marist, , Marist Institute, Public, Biden Administration, Republican, Democratic Party, Democrat, Dow Jones, Moody's Locations: Pennsylvania
The U.S. economy ended 2023 with a bang, as growth in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter came in at 3.3%, easily dashing expectations on strong consumer spending and exports. Economists had predicted a gain of 2% for the quarter following the third quarter’s 4.9% increase, driven by strong consumer spending, rebuilding of inventories and a resilient labor market. Although 2023 outperformed, defying predictions of a recession even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to a level not seen in four decades, most economists are forecasting growth slowing this year. The strong fourth quarter number is likely to cast doubt on whether the Fed will begin cutting interest rates as early as the market thinks. “Consumers will likely remain cautious with their spending as they confront ‘cost fatigue’ and less vibrant labor market conditions.
Persons: , Steve Rick, Gregory Daco, Daco, Jerome Powell, , ” Daco Organizations: Federal Reserve, TruStage, , Fed, Labor Department Locations: U.S, Ukraine
New York CNN —The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, measured 2.6% annually in November. So, getting that number down to the Fed’s 2% target should happen in no time, right? That’s because much of the run-up in inflation came from pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions and unusual spikes in demand. The reason is that as inflation cools more, the remaining components that work to keep inflation above the Fed’s target are increasingly “sticky,” meaning they’re the least responsive to changes in market conditions. And it’s so far, so good.”That said, though it’s not the Fed’s go-to inflation gauge, Thursday’s CPI report showed that the road to 2% could come with more bumps.
Persons: , John Cochrane, Jerome Powell, Gregory Daco, That’s, Powell, Cochrane, , ” Paul Donovan, ” Powell, I’d, it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Hoover Institute, , University of Chicago, CNN, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: New York, EY
Washington, DC CNN —US economic growth was even stronger in the third quarter than previously estimated, underscoring the economy’s remarkable resilience in the face of elevated inflation and high borrowing costs earlier this year. Wednesday’s latest reading reflects an even faster pace of growth than the blistering 4.9% rate the department initially estimated. Nonresidential fixed investment, or business spending, was revised up to a growth rate of 1.3% in the third quarter from a decline of 0.1%. Fourth-quarter spending likely won’t be as piping hot, however. Fed officials pay close attention to various facets of the US economy when deliberating monetary policy, including growth.
Persons: , Gregory Daco, , Christopher Waller, American Enterprise Institute . Waller, Michelle Bowman Organizations: DC CNN, Gross, Commerce, Consumer, Adobe Analytics, Institute for Supply Management, Employers, Atlanta Fed, Federal, , American Enterprise Institute ., Fed Locations: Washington, EY, Salt Lake City
The quickest growth pace in nearly two years reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, however, likely exaggerated the health of the economy last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 5.0% rate. The upward revision to growth last quarter reflected upgrades to business investment on structures, mostly warehouses and healthcare facilities. Inventory investment added 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth. Profits rose at a 0.8% rate in the second quarter.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Christopher Rupkey, There's, Gregory Daco, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department's, Reuters, Federal, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, New York, EY, Charlotte , North Carolina
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere could be a possible recession, says economist Christopher RupkeyGregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the recent labor market data, whether a recession is looming, and more.
Persons: Christopher Rupkey Gregory Daco, Christopher Rupkey, Steve Liesman Locations: EY
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