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☆ The Fed is following its 1995 playbook — and that's great news for stocks and the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed looks like it's following the same path it did in 1995, according to TS Lombard. It's also great news for stocks, as the S&P 500 more than doubled in value that decade. AdvertisementThe Fed is following a 30-year-old playbook with its interest rate moves — and that's good news for the US economy, according to TS Lombard. Stocks soared a day after the big rate cut. Despite wobbling in the hours after the Fed's rate move, the major indexes hit fresh records in Thursday trades.

Persons: It's, —, Dario Perkins, Perkins, Stocks Organizations: TS Lombard, Service, Fed, American Institute for Economic Research, Cleveland Fed

☆ As Social Security faces looming fund depletion, there's fierce debate over whether a commission can help
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-15 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

"A vote for a commission is a vote to cut Social Security," the man shouted before he was escorted off the floor. How the last major reforms, in 1983, came togetherPresident Ronald Reagan signs the Social Security Act Amendment into law on April 20, 1983. The changes involved taxes on Social Security benefits, increases to payroll tax rates, a future increase to the retirement age and a near-term postponement of cost-of-living adjustments. Social Security Commission Chairman Alan Greenspan, left, shakes hands with Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, prior to a Social Security hearing on Feb. 15, 1983. Lawmakers divided on best path forwardToday, lawmakers are divided on the best path forward to address Social Security.

Persons: —, Scott Peters, Peters, Bill Huizenga, Joe Manchin, Mitt Romney, — Rep, John Larson, Connecticut —, It's, " Larson, Larson, Nancy Altman, Ronald Reagan, Alan Greenspan, Greenspan, Jim Baker, Reagan, Tip O'Neill, Robert M, Ball, O'Neill, Sen, Charles Grassley, Bob Dole, John Danforth, Altman, Bruce D, Schobel, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, California —, they're, Hakeem Jeffries, Conn, Brian Higgins, Jimmy Gomez, Jeffries, Dan Kildee, Richard Neal, Tom Williams Organizations: iStock, Social, Social Security, AARP, CNBC, Rep, Democratic, Corbis, National Commission, Social Security Reform, Greenspan, Federal Reserve, House, White, Finance, Economic Policy Institute, Republican, Greenspan Commission, Senate Finance, Bettmann, Getty, Congress, Democratic House, White House, Democrats, Security, Capitol Visitor Center, CQ, Inc Locations: Sens, R, Utah, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Iowa, California, D

☆ Here’s what the S&P 500’s summer hot streak can teach us about the late 2023 rally and its staying power
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-02 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

In the final run-up to the late-July peak in stocks this column surveyed the rally , and asked, "Enough for now? .SPX YTD line The S & P 500's year-to-date performance Yes, the market is overbought by various technical measures. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo and Barclays are seeing the S & P 500 as dead money next year, at best. The virtues of owning the S & P 500 passively have always been low cost, tax efficiency, low turnover and broad exposure to the asset class. While 2021 was a Nasdaq 100 melt-up year, 2022 was the mirror image: Big Tech got blasted and the equal-weight S & P 500 held up better.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Jack Bogle, Alan Greenspan's Organizations: Federal, Deutsche, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America, Barclays, Hamas, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Big Tech, matchless, Treasury Locations: Wells Fargo, Israel

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda attends a press conference after its policy meeting in Tokyo, Japan October 31, 2023, in this photo taken by Kyodo. In addition, interest rate changes were asymmetric — Fed rate hikes following stock market recoveries were usually muted compared with the initial cuts. This was an explicit, open-ended policy to hold the currency at a set level and flood the Swiss economy and markets with oceans of liquidity, but essentially still a central bank put. As Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex points out, it is financial stability that is ultimately - and rightly - at the heart of the so-called central bank put. "There is a perception or myth that has built up around the central bank put.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Alan Greenspan, Louis, William Poole, Greenspan, Steven Englander, Marc Chandler, Chandler, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Japan, Kyodo, REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Louis Fed, Swiss National Bank, Standard Chartered, National Bureau of Economic Research, Swiss, Reuters, Bannockburn Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, New York, Switzerland, Swiss, Bannockburn

☆ Bank of England warns U.S. tech stock valuations may be out of whack
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. Valuations for U.S technology stocks may be too high given the current macroeconomic backdrop and spike in rates, according to the Bank of England. "Given the impact of higher interest rates, and uncertainties associated with inflation and growth, some risky asset valuations appear to be stretched," the BoE's financial policy committee said Tuesday. "Stretched risky asset valuations increase the likelihood of a greater correction in prices if downside risks to growth materialise." To be sure, this isn't the first time that a central bank has warned of valuations over the years, but as a general rule, central bankers would rather not offer an opinion on any specific market price.

Persons: BoE, premia, Ben Bernanke, Lehman, Alan Greenspan, Greenspan's, — CNBC's Scott Schnipper Organizations: Bank of England, Microsoft, Nvidia, Lehman Brothers Locations: City, London, Britain, U.S

He called the U.S. central bank's misreading of the issue "a major failure" that can mar analysis of where the economy stands. Since 2016, policies from the vastly different Trump and Biden administrations have combined in a sort of accidental complementarity to keep both job and economic growth above the Fed's estimate of potential. Median Fed policymaker projections of potential U.S. economic growth have slid from a level around 2.5% a decade ago to 1.8% as of June 2023, when the last projections were issued. Under pressure from colleagues to raise interest rates as the economy accelerated, Greenspan resisted and accommodated the expansion instead of fighting it. But it could help economic growth continue even as prices cool, another prop for the "soft landing" the Fed hopes to engineer and possible evidence of rising potential.

Persons: John Williams, Joe Biden, Adam Posen, Donald Trump, Trump's, Biden, Dana Peterson, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Board's Peterson, Alan Greenspan's, Greenspan, Jackson, John Fernald, Huiyu Li, Michael Feroli, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, San Francisco, Fed, Reuters, BlackRock, Bank of England, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Biden, Conference Board, Jackson, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Trust Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington

☆ Republicans and Democrats agree Social Security reform needs to happen. But they're divided on how
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Advocates for a bipartisan commission argue the approach may help smooth out the differences between the parties. But whether a bipartisan commission is the answer to Social Security's funding woes is the subject of fierce debate. Social Security benefit cuts unpopular, poll showszimmytws | iStock | Getty ImagesA new poll from Social Security Works and Data for Progress of 1,191 likely voters highlights one big concern about that approach — that it would require benefit cuts. 'It has to be done in a bipartisan way'Any changes to Social Security will require bipartisan agreement. "You don't want Social Security to become a partisan issue," said Bill Hoagland, senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Persons: Tom Cole, Jake LaTurner, Cole, Danielle Deiseroth, Nancy Altman, Altman, Bill Hoagland, Hoagland Organizations: Istock, Getty, Social Security Commission, Democrats, Social Security, iStock, Progress, actuaries, Greenspan, Center Locations: Kansas

☆ Twitter has suspended the accounts of a prominent Tesla and Elon Musk critic, PlainSite founder Aaron Greenspan
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Lora Kolodny | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Twitter suspended the accounts of PlainSite and its founder Aaron Greenspan, a prolific Tesla and Elon Musk critic, on Tuesday afternoon. PlainSite is an online database that makes state and federal court filings and other public records available to users for free. Greenspan has meticulously tracked litigation by or against companies mostly in the U.S., including Tesla, Twitter (which Musk took private in an acquisition last year), as well as competitors GM , Meta and a myriad of others. The suspension stands at odds with public statements from Twitter's executive chairman and CTO Elon Musk, and newly-appointed CEO Linda Yaccarino. He also discussed some of the reasons why he started the "legal transparency initiative" PlainSite, and how he came to be regarded as an Elon Musk nemesis.

Persons: Aaron Greenspan, Elon Musk, Greenspan, Tesla, Musk, Linda Yaccarino, Yaccarino, Elon Organizations: Twitter, GM, Meta, CNBC Locations: PlainSite, U.S, NBCUniversal

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - Even if the U.S. dollar's singular dominance as global currency of choice is in fact ebbing, it may not automatically lead to a weaker dollar exchange rate - and could periodically mean the opposite. The big advantage of large dollar reserve holdings alongside wide commercial usage and trade in dollars overseas was clear. But the issue is typically read in markets as a reason to bet on a weakening dollar exchange rate - or even to pump alternatives such as gold or crypto tokens. Of course, that was a global economy riven with fixed dollar exchange rate pegs that supercharged the transmission of Fed policy, most of which have since been dismantled. That may be a world many countries prefer if they are sure of viable alternatives - but may not mean a weaker dollar.

Persons: chomping, Alan Greenspan's, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Mike Dolan, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Federal, OASIS, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Washington, China, Ukraine, Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, Iran, Venezuela, outflows

ORLANDO, Florida, April 14 (Reuters) - Engineering a soft landing is hard. Blinder posits that the soft landing parameters of avoiding recession completely are too narrow. "To achieve another soft landing under these circumstances, the Fed will have to be skillful indeed," Blinder concludes. The Fed cut rates five months later and the rest is soft landing history. Of these 70 episodes, 41 ended with a hard landing and 29 with a soft landing.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has said the central bank may be at the end of its rate-rising cycle, there's a wide 'hawk-dove' divide within the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday became the first major central bank to pause its tightening campaign. "I don't think other major central banks are going to be able to match what the Fed is going to do. "The dollar can stay elevated as long as the Fed remains the most aggressive central bank in the world." Of course, central bank cycles don't always converge. Related columns:- Hedge funds record wager on higher 2-year U.S. bond yield- Rates market overshoot - or no man's land?

☆ Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan warned a US recession is on its way and slammed failed crypto exchange FTX in a recent Q&A. Here are the 10 best quotes.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan shared his outlook for 2023 in a recent investment commentary. He warned a US recession is now "the most likely outcome" – and slammed bankrupt crypto exchange FTX. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Since retiring as Fed chair in 2006, Greenspan has worked as a private advisor and financial consultant. Read more: A war between China and Taiwan is the economic 'black swan' investors should be most worried about, ex-Fed chair Alan Greenspan warns

☆ The stock market's biggest risk in 2023 is a drop in corporate earnings, even if the economy avoids a recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market's biggest risk in 2023 is a decline in corporate earnings, according to Ned Davis Research. "The direction of earnings revisions is likely to be down regardless of whether Powell can find some of Greenspan's 1994 soft-landing magic." In a non-recession scenario, NDR estimates that earnings revisions "in the ballpark of 8% would be a reasonable assumption." "If the economy falls into a recession, [earnings] revisions could be the biggest since 2020 COVID-19 shutdown and possibly larger than during the 2015 oil collapse," Clissold said. "Unless economic conditions improve quickly, earnings revisions could be severe."

Hopes have risen that the 20% S&P 500 plunge this year had cleared the decks by dragging the aggregate price/earnings ratio back below long-term averages. "In this environment we think bonds are more attractive relative to stocks on a risk-adjusted basis. chartMIND THE GAPTake the difference between the S&P 500 earnings yield and nominal 10-year Treasury yield. The current dividend yield - total annual dividends divided by the value of the index - is around 1.75%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.23%. As of Monday Oct. 24, the S&P 500 was down 20% year-to-date and the ICE BofA aggregate Treasuries index was down 15.6%.

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