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It overtook Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX), which is up 9%, in late May for the first time this year. In dollar terms, the STOXX 600 (.STOXXD) is still lagging, having gained 11.3% in 2023, while the euro is up 1.1%. "Relative to the U.S., European equities are looking less interesting and attractive," said Bernie Ahkong, co-chief investment officer at fund manager UBS O'Connor Global Multi-strategy Alpha. The euro zone economy was in technical recession in the first quarter, data from European statistics agency Eurostat showed last week. "But Europe looks even more unattractive than the U.S., because the temporary good data from Europe is really going to turn."

Persons: Europe's, Bernie Ahkong, UBS O'Connor, Ahkong, Geoffroy Goenen, Candriam, Graham Secker, Morgan Stanley, Hani Redha, Alex Richardson Organizations: UBS, UBS O'Connor Global, Alpha, U.S, Bank of America's, Eurostat, Barclays, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, China, PineBridge, United States

☆ European equity investors hunt for big returns in small places
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The MSCI Europe SMID index of European small to mid-cap firms (.MIEU000D0PEU) is trading near 2008 lows versus the wider market in terms of valuations, including both price/earnings and price-to-book ratios. The bank's small cap basket is invested across sectors, or 'sector neutral', to make it "less prone to the ups and downs of cyclical acceleration and deceleration." But M&A remains a supportive theme, said Amundi's Matti, as big players seeking external growth can look to the small cap sector for niche expertise to add to their portfolios. "When people are trying to find alpha to add to their portfolio, small caps tend to be the place to look at," said Matti. "Ultimately, they (small caps) are a rich hunting ground for long-term investors."

Persons: Dash, Emmanuel Cau, Amundi, Cristina Matti, Amundi's Matti, Matti, Graham Secker, Morgan Stanley, ”, Bernie Ahkong, Morgan Stanley's Secker, Thomas McGarrity, Lucy Raitano, Susan Fenton Organizations: Barclays, Energy, Reuters Graphics, O’Connor, Alpha, UBS Asset Management, Data, RBC Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Europe, Amundi

☆ Economic data more likely to disappoint than exceed expectations, Morgan Stanley strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomic data more likely to disappoint than exceed expectations, Morgan Stanley strategist saysGraham Secker, chief European equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, discusses the economic data outlook over the coming months.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Graham Secker

☆ Morgan Stanley sees a 10% fall in European stocks this summer — and reveals how to trade it
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Morgan Stanley expects a 10% slump in European stocks over the next quarter as several unfavorable conditions converge. The investment bank made the forecast partly based on a slowdown in economic momentum and tighter liquidity conditions in the fixed-income market. "We expect a 10% correction over the summer months as growth slows and liquidity deteriorates," said Morgan Stanley strategists led by Graham Secker in a note to clients on June 4. The investment bank said defensive stocks were better suited to navigate this anticipated downturn over cyclical stocks. In addition, Morgan Stanley expects a decline in earnings per share of 6% for 2023, up from a previously projected 10% decrease, and EPS growth of 6% for 2024.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Graham Secker, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Locations: Europe, LYY5

☆ Slowing growth will crash European stock party
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON, May 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - European shares have been on the rise for seven months, outshining their U.S. counterparts, and are now just 6% below their record high. Luck played a part in the recent European surge. Natural gas prices have fallen more than 80% since their August peak, boosting economic growth and reducing companies’ costs. Analysts currently expect a 0.4% fall in European companies’ earnings per share (EPS) in 2023, according to Barclays. European investors have had an unusually enjoyable, and profitable, ride.

☆ Morgan Stanley identifies 5 European stocks with downside risks ahead of earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Morgan Stanley analysts have identified what they say are five highly-profitable stocks in Europe with downside risk to their share prices ahead of first-quarter earnings results. The "over-earning" refers to a situation in which companies or sectors have been generating higher-than-average profits compared to their historical performance. The below table lists the five stocks "that may be over-earning," according to Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley's research suggests that the sectors most at risk of over-earning include transport, semiconductors, construction materials, energy, and autos. The investment bank analyzed these sectors across various profitability metrics and compared them to their 10-year historical averages, highlighting the potential risk of mean reversion. Last week, the bank named the five stocks to buy where its analysts have a "high conviction" in the stock's performance ahead of earnings.

A broad measure of European shares, the STOXX 600 index (.STOXX), is trading at 14-month highs, taking this year's gains to almost 10%. James Rutland, a European equities fund manager at Invesco, noted that consistent outflows from European shares last year, when the energy crisis dealt the region a fresh blow, had left valuations at very cheap levels. A broad index of European stocks is trading at a multiple of 12.6, compared with a ratio of 18.1 for the S&P 500, according to Refinitiv data. This 5.5 point premium is above the five-year average of around 4 points, suggesting European shares look cheap compared to their U.S. counterparts. "This has broken European stocks out of their relative downward trend, so we don't think Europe is now a structural underperformer," he said.

LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Banking sector turmoil has not dented demand for equities, with MSCI's world stock index up 7% so far this year. But under the surface, bad omens for world stocks are building. Central bank surveys show U.S. and European banks are already tightening lending standards, historically a predictor of dismal stock market performance. Credit tightening predicts poor stock market returns2/ MANUFACTURING SLOWDOWNRecessions starting in the United States tend to flow to the rest of the world and consequently global stocks. Seven mega-cap tech stocks were responsible for 92% of the S&P 500's first-quarter rise, Citi notes.

☆ 'Sell into rallies': Morgan Stanley names the stocks to navigate current European banking jitters
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In the wake of recent market volatility and steep share price falls, Morgan Stanley cautioned that the European banking sector is "not as attractive as it was." Morgan Stanley strategists cautioned that although the banking sector is now cheaper, news flow surrounding earnings upgrades and cash return expectations may fade or reverse. On a top-down basis, Morgan Stanley recommended the following overweight-rated (a buy equivalent rating) stocks to navigate this environment with a defensive exposure. Stocks in traditionally defensive sectors, such as health care and utilities, are being recommended by Morgan Stanley. However, Morgan Stanley said the banking sector's problems have shifted this perspective, as the outperformance of European banks has been closely tied to the broader European market.

☆ Europe grew faster than the US last year. Its markets are outperforming too
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The overall rise is a reversal of a 15-year trend that has seen US stock indices, flush with fast-growing tech companies, consistently beat those across the Atlantic. Over the past decade, investors poured money into fast-growing tech stocks, aided by ultra-low interest rates. (SXXL)But tech companies have taken a beating recently. Tech companies, including Microsoft and Alphabet, announced thousands of layoffs last month. High interest rates make it more expensive for companies to borrow to expand their business, raising doubts about their future earnings.

☆ China’s reopening has gotten Wall Street excited. Here’s how the pros are playing it
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Over the past week, a host of Wall Street banks have turned increasingly bullish on the world's second-largest economy and have upgraded their outlook on Chinese stocks. Morgan Stanley expects China's GDP to grow by an "above-consensus" 5.4% in 2023, on the back of a "fast-tracked" reopening and more proactive policy easing. Meanwhile, UBS says Chinese stocks look increasingly attractive. How to play the reopening Against this backdrop, analysts have named a slew of both Chinese and global stocks they think will benefit most from China's reopening. Bank of America's domestic reopening beneficiaries include consumer stocks such as alcoholic beverage makers Kweichow Moutai and Tsingtao Brew , airline stocks including China Southern Airlines , as well as online travel platform Trip.com .

☆ Analysis: European companies' robust Q3 makes timing the end of the bear market even harder
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Refinitiv data also shows analysts expect STOXX constituents to post quarterly earnings growth of 32.2% year on year, compared to just 4.3% for the benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) in the United States. Inflation has seen prices soar on the continent, but so far companies are showing they have been able to pass on rising costs. Of the 243 that have reported revenue, 80.7% beat analyst estimates, compared with 58% in an average quarter, according to Refinitiv. The STOXX technically entered a bear market in late September when it accumulated losses of more 20% from a January peak. “Our thesis at the moment is that we're not ready to say the bear market has finished.

☆ As the pound tanks, Goldman and others reveal the UK stock market's likely winners and losers
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The British pound continued its slide against the U.S. dollar this week, hitting a new record low against the greenback Monday. Goldman Sachs European strategist Sharon Bell said the bank expects the pound to trade at around $1.05 over the next three months. Winners Secker is overweight the blue-chip FTSE 100 , which he believes is "arguably the ultimate 'weak FX' play." "The losers in the U.K. are the small-and-mid cap companies that are importing raw materials, which has now become more expensive. The FTSE 250 , which is more domestic than the FTSE 100, will also tend to suffer, all else equal, as sterling falls," Bell said.

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