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Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFears are mounting that the U.S. could soon experience its own version of Britain's "mini-budget" crisis, with bond strategists warning that Donald Trump's return to the White House brings with it the specter of currency volatility and surging bond yields. The former president's economic agenda has ratcheted up concerns about a surge in consumer prices, which strategists say could spark significant shifts in bond yields and investor behavior. They warn a scenario that mirrors Britain's mini-budget crisis of 2022 is not out of the question. watch nowBritain's mini-budget crisis refers to a tumultuous period under former Prime Minister Liz Truss and ex-Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng. Bond yields tend to rise when market participants expect higher consumer prices or a growing budget deficit.
Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Trump, Remtulla, Liz Truss, Kwasi Kwarteng, Kwarteng, Althea Spinozzi, Trump's, Spinozzi, Angela Weiss, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, Thierry Wizman, likelier, Wizman Organizations: Economic, of New, Bloomberg, Getty, EFG, CNBC, U.S ., Finance, U.S, Bank of England, Saxo Bank, White, Treasury, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Capital Economics, Macquarie Group Locations: of New York, New York, U.S, Foreign, Treasurys, Treasuries, New York City, America
Three Wall Street banks have taken differing views on gold's trajectory in 2025, reflecting the complex economic outlook. Goldman Sachs expects the price of the yellow metal to reach $3,000 per ounce by December 2025, saying "Go For Gold" in a note from Nov. 17. The gold price has declined by 7% since late October as the risk of a disputed U.S. election result diminished. While maintaining a positive outlook on gold, UBS warned that its gains — gold had risen 35% this year until November — could slow down. Goldman Sachs pointed to a fivefold increase in central bank gold purchases, driven by concerns about financial sanctions and sovereign debt sustainability.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump's, Goldman, Daan Struyven, Karen Ward, Ward, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Trump, JPMorgan Asset Management, UBS Locations: U.S, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Switzerland, Russia, Ukraine
The rise in India's income and wealth inequality is not a result of the poor getting poorer, Sumedha Dasgupta, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) flags. India's income gap (which is the difference in wages earned between different demographic) comes alongside a worsening wealth divide too. Instead, the phenomenon comes as the "rich are getting much richer at a faster rate," she told CNBC's Inside India. India's 3 household groupsA more pressing issue brought on by India's wealth and income divide is the emergence of different categories of households with distinct standards of living. Unequal education opportunitiesThe EIU's Dasgupta attributes India's vicious wealth and income gap cycle in large part to mismatched education opportunities.
Persons: Knight Frank, Dasgupta, CNBC's, Shumita Deveshwar, Deveshwar Organizations: Economist Intelligence Unit, Blume Ventures, Oxfam, Private, Department of School Education, Global Commons Alliance, TS Lombard Locations: India, United States, Brazil, South Africa, Venture, Saharan Africa, Indian
Sundheim's D1 Capital added positions in GE Healthcare Technologies and Bank of America during the third quarter, a filing Thursday showed. Outside of those new positions and buying more shares of XPO Logistics , D1 Capital was mostly selling its top holdings. The hedge fund sold 22% of its biggest holding, Instacart , and 46% of its stake in cigarette maker Philip Morris . D1 Capital managed about $19 billion as of the end of last year. The extent of other holdings for D1 Capital is unclear.
Persons: Daniel Sundheim, Philip Morris Organizations: Sundheim's, GE Healthcare Technologies, Bank of America, XPO Logistics, D1, GE Vernova, Pfizer, Nu Holdings, Starbucks, Viking Global, D1 Capital Locations: Instacart
President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House has sent ripples through global financial markets, with many investors looking to recalibrate their portfolios for a dramatically different policy landscape ahead. Higher Treasury yields mean higher interest rates for corporate borrowers. Trump's tariffs Perhaps the biggest concern for investors globally is Trump's campaign promise of aggressive new tariffs , including the potential for a universal 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. However, some Asian nations might benefit if higher tariffs on China prompt manufacturers to relocate. Europe Most analysts agree that U.S. trade tariffs are likely to hurt Europe, with some companies able to navigate the challenges better than others.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Russell, Mislav Matejka, David Seif, Goldman Sachs, Gareth Leather, Macquarie, Aditya Suresh, Mark Diethelm, Diethelm, Emmanuel Cau, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: White, Republican, Trump, U.S, Nasdaq, Treasury, Nomura, Federal Reserve, Asia Capital Economics, Capital Economics, U.S ., Union, Morningstar, Logitech, Barclays Locations: Congress, Treasurys, Trump's, U.S, United States, Korea, Taiwan, China, Vietnam, Asia, India, Europe
European markets set to start the week on a positive note
  + stars: | 2024-11-11 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
European stocks are expected to open in positive territory Monday as global markets take a breath following last week's U.S. election. Earnings are set to come from Continental, Hannover Re and Mediobanca. Stocks also got a boost from the Federal Reserve after it lowered interest rates by a quarter percentage point last Thursday. Global investors will be awaiting the latest U.S. inflation readings due later in the week. Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets fell after China's latest stimulus measures underwhelmed and its October inflation numbers came in lower than expected.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Dow, Donald Trump's, Stocks Organizations: U.S, France's CAC, IG, Hannover Re, Federal Reserve, Global Locations: Continental, Europe, U.S, Asia, Pacific
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHigher budget deficit isn't a top concern given strong U.S. economy and dollar's central roleTodd Jablonski from Principal Global Investors says while Trump's economic policies may push up inflation, the Fed can counter balance that with monetary policy.
Persons: Todd Jablonski Organizations: Global Investors
European markets are heading for a mixed open as global investors digest Donald Trump's presidential election win and political upheaval in Germany. They also await monetary policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England. Global markets continue to react to Donald Trump's decisive election win, with U.S. stocks rallying Wednesday as Wall Street rejoiced the speedy conclusion of the presidential election. Central banks will be closely watched Thursday, with the Fed and BoE both expected to announce rate cuts. Scholz announced he would bring a vote of confidence to the German parliament on Jan. 15.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Germany's DAX, BoE, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Lindner's, Scholz Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, France's CAC, IG, Global, Fed Locations: Germany, Asia, Pacific, U.S
US debt is surging and Trump and Harris's plans will only add to the pile, the former FDIC chair says. Sheila Bair warns that high debt cause the next financial crisis. She says neither candidate has focused on the crisis because higher taxes and lower benefits would drive away voters. Surging debt levels could cause the next financial crisis if left unchecked, Bair warned. "Now, the resulting overhang of federal debt could itself be the cause of a future crisis," Bair wrote in an op-ed last week.
Persons: Sheila Bair, , Bair, Trump's, Harris's, don't, it's Organizations: Trump, Service, Treasury, Investors, CNBC
Larry Fink says the US election won't impact markets long-term. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementLarry Fink doesn't think the US election will affect markets much. The BlackRock CEO doubled down on saying the outcome of the US election, which will be decided in two weeks, won't matter in the long run. Divided Wall StreetFink is not the only Wall Street heavyweight saying the election won't matter to financial markets.
Persons: Larry Fink, Fink, BlackRock, , Larry Fink doesn't, I'm, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden, Adewale Adeyemo, Mike Pyle, Harris, Obama, Mike Gitlin, PGIM Organizations: Service, BlackRock, Securities Industry, Financial, The Financial Times, Republican, Republicans, Wall, Capital Locations: BlackRock, China
China is expected to announce extra fiscal policy support on Saturday. The lack of consumer support in China's last stimulus package disappointed investors. According to a Bloomberg survey, most analysts expect authorities to pledge $283 billion of fiscal stimulus at Saturday's highly anticipated press conference. Chinese authorities followed up by announcing Saturday's press conference, which promised to introduce new measures centered on fiscal policy. Some analysts remain less sure about what fiscal stimulus will actually achieve on its own, pointing out that Beijing needs to pursue structural reforms to revive consumer confidence.
Persons: , Lan Fo'an, China's, Mark Williams, Stephen Roach, Arthur Kroeber, Gavekal Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Finance, Analysts, CSI, Reform Commission, Capital Economics, Asia, Financial Times Locations: China, Beijing, Yale
Hong Kong CNN —Global investors went wild during China’s just-concluded Golden Week holiday by snapping up “everything” related to the country. But that optimism didn’t extend to shoppers and travelers in the world’s second-largest economy itself. “Low tourism spending per head and subdued services prices highlighted still weak domestic demand and continued consumption downgrading,” they said. Goldman Sachs added that anecdotal evidence indicates hotel prices and airfares during the holiday were lower than year-ago levels. According to official data, cross-border travel rose by about 26% to 13 million trips, compared with last year’s holiday period.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Xi Jinping, David Tepper Organizations: Hong Kong CNN — Global, Citi, Management, CNBC, Hong, National Development, Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance Locations: China, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAllianz Global Investors: Recapitalization of Chinese banks critical to sustaining market rallyJenny Zeng from Allianz Global Investors discusses whether the PBOC's stimulus package is enough to sustain the current Chinese market rally, adding that she is watching if the Chinese government will stay ahead of market expectations.
Persons: Jenny Zeng Organizations: Allianz Global Investors
The U.S. Federal Reserve's bumper 50-basis-point interest rate cut has been the talk of the market as investors evaluate sectors and stocks. Kingsley Jones, a chief investment officer at the Sydney-headquartered Jevons Global, says the rate cut has "supported the market." Avoid semiconductor equipment Jones is avoiding sectors like semiconductor equipment that companies have been spending more on, following interest in building AI infrastructure and chip factories. He warned of the impact that U.S. sanctions might have on semiconductor equipment plays. "So, I'd avoid the semi equipment sector trade out of that," he added.
Persons: Kingsley Jones, Jevons, Jones, it's, wasn't Organizations: U.S, Sydney, Tech, Big Tech, Nvidia, AbbVie Inc, Costco, Oracle Locations: Federal, United States, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's cutting cycle casts opportunities for global investors and emerging markets ex-China: FidelityJurrien Timmer of Fidelity Investments breaks down the benefits of the Fed's rate cut for global investors and emerging markets ex-China
Organizations: Fidelity, Fidelity Investments Locations: China
What a Fed rate cut could mean for the world
  + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
watch nowThe U.S. Federal Reserve is on Wednesday heading for its first interest rate cut since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic — and despite the move being widely forecast, global investors are braced for impact. Global impactA key concern is the pressure interest rate differentials put on currencies. Oil and other commodities, usually priced in dollars, often receive a boost with a rate cut as a lower cost of borrowing can stimulate an economy and increase demand. "Interest rate cuts reduce the cost of borrowing in U.S. dollars, thereby creating easier liquidity conditions for companies around the world," Quilter Cheviot's Richard Carter continued via email. That includes whether the initial cut will reduce the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points or 50 basis points below its current 525 to 550 range.
Persons: , Richard Carter, Cheviot, Cheviot's Richard Carter Organizations: U.S . Federal, Turkish, U.S ., Fed, Federal, Equity Locations: U.S, Canada, Mexico, Switzerland, Sweden
By extension, the move in Washington, D.C. could also spell good news for Chinese stocks. High U.S. interest rates relative to China have made it fairly straightforward for global institutions to pick U.S. Treasurys over Chinese stocks. More than lower rates needed Other global investors say Chinese stocks need more than easier monetary policy to become truly attractive. The "government can push interest rates down, but if households don't want to spend the extra income, it won't go into the economy," he said. Earlier this year, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng acknowledged U.S. Fed easing would create room for China to further cut interest rates.
Persons: Steven Sun, Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley, Aaron Costello, Yi Gang, Costello, James Wang, Wang, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, HSBC, HSBC Qianhai Securities, Nasdaq, U.S, Treasury, Cambridge Associates, CNBC, People's Bank of China, UBS Investment Bank Research, UBS, Hang Seng China Enterprises, China Southern Airlines, Hengli Petrochemical, Saudi, Aramco Locations: China's, Washington ,, China, 1H24, Asia, U.S, Beijing, Hang, Shenzhen, Shanghai
New York CNN —It’s easy to dismiss many presidential candidates’ campaign promises as empty, because Congress would need to approve them. Alex Durante, an economist at the Tax Foundation, a right-leaning think tank, told CNN that 100% tariffs would threaten the economy. It’s possible he is floating 100% tariffs as just a threat designed to change the behavior of other countries. ‘No question it’s inflationary’The Trump campaign did not provide an explanation to CNN about how Trump would implement 100% tariffs nor what the trigger would be. He said Trump’s tariff plan, if enacted, would risk setting off a market panic like former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss did in 2022.
Persons: New York CNN —, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Trump, , you’re, ” Maury Obstfeld, Obstfeld, ” Obstfeld, Christine McDaniel, George W, Bush, , McDaniel, George Mason University’s, Alex Durante, ” Durante, Brian Hughes, ” Hughes, , Harris, Kamala Harris, ” Kent Smetters, Smetters, Wharton “, it’s, ” Wharton, Liz, Joe Brusuelas, ” “ I’m, Joe Biden, Biden, Brusuelas, Liz Truss, Matt Priest, Trump’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Peterson Institute for International Economics, CNN, International Monetary Fund, Trump, United States Trade Representative, Commerce Department, Tax Foundation, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, Penn Wharton Budget, Wharton, ABC, RSM, Democratic, Footwear Distributors, Retailers of America Locations: New York, Wisconsin, United States, China, Russia, , American
For investors holding Japanese assets denominated in yen, the decline of the currency led to the value of their gains increasing. McManus isn't the only one who increased his exposure into the Japanese market following the early August sell-off. Before the yen started to strengthen, "Japanese investors could benefit because their lives and portfolios are denominated in yen. As a result, an appreciating yen will help overseas investors realize gains from the Japanese market as it continues its rebound. "This suggests that, if the cycle is heading towards [a] period of persistent yen strength, global investors should overweight Japan," Jefferies said.
Persons: , we're, Janus Henderson, Julian McManus, McManus, Jefferies, Shrikant Kale, Janus Henderson's McManus, Morgan Stanley, Daniel Blake, Peter Perkins, Perkins Organizations: Toyota, Bank of, U.S, Nikkei, Bank of America, Macro Research, Partners, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe yen 'carry trade' isn't dead despite market selloff: Advisory firmEd Rogers of Rogers Investment Advisors discusses Japan's market selloff and what it means for global investors.
Persons: Ed Rogers Organizations: Rogers Investment Advisors
Yen braces for BOJ decision with risk events aplenty
  + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
That is followed by inflation readings in France and the wider euro zone later in the day, alongside the Federal Reserve's policy decision, which takes center stage. With plenty of risk events to mark the month-end, currency moves were largely subdued in early Asia trade as investors were hesitant to take on fresh positions. "We anticipate that the BOJ will increase interest rates to around 0.25% at the upper limit." "A rate hike could help stabilize the yen's current levels, whereas the absence of a rate hike may trigger renewed selling pressure driven by carry trades." The yen similarly made headway against other currencies, with the euro falling 0.07% to 165.07 yen and the Australian dollar slipping 0.12% to 99.80 yen.
Persons: Gregor Hirt, Sterling eked, Julien Lafargue Organizations: Bank of Japan, Federal, CIO, Allianz Global Investors, Traders, Barclays Private Bank, New Zealand Locations: Bank, France, Asia
Why Global Investors Are Watching What Japan Does Next
  + stars: | 2024-07-29 | by ( Joe Rennison | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
Japan’s central bankers meet this week, and what they decide has the potential to move markets around the world. While policymakers in the United States and elsewhere either are preparing to cut interest rates or have already done so, the Bank of Japan is only just beginning to raise them. “Japan is in a different world,” said Kei Okamura, a portfolio manager based in Japan at the investment firm Neuberger Berman. The Bank of Japan cut interest rates below zero in 2016 and kept them there until March, when it announced the first rate increase in 17 years, as the economy showed signs of recovery from anemic growth and low inflation. Economists believe the central bank might raise rates again at its upcoming meeting, which concludes on Wednesday.
Persons: , Kei Okamura, Neuberger Berman Organizations: Bank of Japan, The Bank of Japan Locations: Japan, United States
While it offered few clues on how to tackle economic difficulties, the meeting did provide further insight into a shake-up of high-level personnel over the past year. If past sessions are a guide, a more detailed report may be released in the following days, but for now, “the plenum communique is light on specifics,” Evans-Pritchard added. That came days after China released disappointing economic data for the second quarter of this year. Analysts say that the coming months could offer more details on how Xi plans to revive the economy. Emphasizing short-term economic policies is rare in the history of the third plenums, said Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN — China’s, Xi Jinping, Xi, , Julian Evans, Pritchard, Qin, Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao, Jinming, Evans, , ” Evans, Mao, Larry Hu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Communist Party, Capital Economics, Central, Defense, Liberation Army Rocket Force, of America, National Bureau, Statistics, Analysts, Macquarie Group Locations: Hong Kong, party’s, Beijing, China, policymaking, outflows, United States, Mao China
From investors to airline travelers, many Americans are being forced to deal with the fallout of this giant IT outage . One-time cybersecurity darling Crowdstrike (CRWD) is getting the blame. CRWD 1D mountain CrowdStrike, 1 day Risk happens fast and for capturing volatility (either to the downside or upside), I prefer to use options to express a view. I want to sell the elevated option premium in CrowdStrike to seek to capitalize on this historic move. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Stakes are high for the meeting, which takes place every five years and is known as China’s third plenum. It has historically been a platform for the party’s leadership to announce key economic reforms and policy directives. China’s gross domestic product expanded by 4.7% in the April to June months, compared to the previous year. But observers of China’s opaque political machine don’t believe there will be fundamental economic reforms this time around. Uncompleted residential buildings at a real estate project on the outskirts of Shenyang in China's Liaoning province earlier this year.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, Xi Jinping, Xi, , Xi’s, Andrea Verdelli, They’ll, , Neil Thomas, Jing Qian, Li Shangfu, Qin Gang, Li Yuchao, Xu Zhongbo Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Communist Party, West, Reuters, party’s Central, US, Congress, Bloomberg, Getty, Observers, ” Asia Society Center, China, Tech, EU, Central Committee, Foreign, People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, United States, Europe, party’s, Shenyang, China's Liaoning, China's Shandong
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