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☆ S&P 500 to see small gain in 2024 as US economic risks rise - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 is up about 18% for 2023 to date. WFII sees the S&P 500 ending next year between 4,600 and 4,800. Geopolitical problems are among other risks to the market heading into 2024, strategists said, with investors closely watching the war between Israel and Hamas militants in Gaza. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth for 2023 is estimated at 2.3% after a weak first half of the year, according to LSEG data. The S&P 500 index's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is now at 19.1, up from 17 at the end of 2022 and its long-term average of about 16, based on LSEG data.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Paul Christopher, WFII, CME's, Goldman, Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls & Snyder, Dow, Caroline Valetkevitch, Chuck Mikolajczak, Sinead Carew, Stephen Culp, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Sarupya Ganguly, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reuters, Wall, Federal, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, U.S, Ingalls &, Dow, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, Israel, Gaza, New York, Monday's, Bengaluru

[1/2] United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain meets with striking UAW members from the General Motors Lansing Delta Plant, as they picket in Delta Township, Michigan U.S. September 29, 2023. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON/DETROIT, Oct 23 - The United Auto Workers (UAW) union went on strike at Chrysler-parent Stellantis's largest assembly plant on Monday, hitting the automaker's profitable RAM 1500 pickup truck production in a major expansion of the more than month-old strike. The union has demanded a 40% wage hike, including a 20% immediate increase, improvements in benefits, as well as covering EV battery plant workers under union agreements. He said the Detroit Three had converged on a 23% wage hike offer and made progress on other issues but told UAW members "there is more to be won". Fain also told UAW members the talks were nearing an end.

Persons: Shawn Fain, Rebecca Cook, Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls & Snyder, Fain, Arthur Wheaton, Stellantis, Wheaton, Bill Ford, Henry Ford, Ford, David Shepardson, Joe White, Ben Klayman, Sriraj Kalluvila, Deepa Babington Organizations: United Auto Workers, General Motors Lansing Delta Plant, Michigan U.S, REUTERS, WASHINGTON, UAW, Chrysler, Detroit, Ford, General Motors, Detroit Three, EV, Sterling, Ford's, Ingalls &, Labor, Korean, Twitter, Cornell University, GM, Anderson Economic, Thomson Locations: Delta Township, Michigan, DETROIT, Ford's Kentucky, U.S, Milan, New York, Washington, Detroit, Bengaluru

☆ Further Fed rate hike comes into view as job growth soars
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

An employee hiring sign with a QR code is seen in a window of a business in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., April 7, 2023. Implied yields on contracts tied to the Fed policy rate pointed to a nearly 50% chance the Fed will lift the benchmark short-term borrowing rate a quarter of a percentage point to the 5.50%-5.75% range at its December meeting. Before the jobs report, traders had given a quarter-point rate hike then about a 34% chance. The report, expected to show non-farm payrolls increased by 170,000 in September but in fact showing employers added 336,000 jobs, also had traders paring bets on Fed rate cuts next year. Futures contracts now price in a Fed policy rate of 4.69% at the end of next year, up from the 4.59% seen before the report.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls & Snyder, Ann Saphir, Sinead Carew, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Ingalls &, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S

"Hybrid is a great alternative to a pure electric vehicle (and) it's an easier sell to a lot of customers." Interest in hybrids is rebounding as consumer demand for pure electrics has not accelerated as quickly as expected. Sales of pure electrics will claim about 37%, leaving combustion vehicles — including so-called “mild” hybrids — with a nearly 40% share. In addition to new pure electric models coming soon, "we are very bullish on hybrids going forward," a spokesperson said. Hyundai and sister brand Kia offer seven hybrid models, with Ford and Lincoln six.

Persons: Mike Blake, Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls, Snyder, ”, Sam Fiorani, Ford, Jim Farley, ” Farley, “, Stellantis, GlobalData, ” Stellantis, Andrew DiFeo, Augustine, Biden, “ I've, I've, Paul Lienert, Ben Klayman, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Toyota, Los Angeles Auto, REUTERS, Rights, Ford, Reuters, AutoForecast Solutions, P Global, General Motors, Chrysler Pacifica, U.S, Lexus, Hyundai, Kia, Lincoln, Chevrolet Corvette, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles , California, U.S, America, New York, St, Jacksonville , FL, Detroit

☆ Second-quarter U.S. earnings estimate still weak, but improving
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters) - The forecast for second-quarter S&P 500 earnings is looking slightly improved from a week ago, although it remains weak with results in from more than half of the S&P 500 companies, Refinitiv data showed Friday. Second-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies now are estimated to have fallen 6.4% year over year. The latest estimate is based on results from 254 of the S&P 500 (.SPX) companies and projections for the remaining components. The earnings forecast tends to improve with stronger-than-expected results. The S&P 500 registered its highest close Friday since April 2022.

Persons: you've, Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls & Snyder, Stocks, Caroline Valetkevitch, Aurora Ellis Organizations: YORK, Ingalls &, Federal, Thomson Locations: New York

☆ Bank results lift stocks; Dow up for seventh straight session
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Shares of other banks such as Bank of New York Mellon (BK.N) and PNC Financial (PNC.N) also rose on Tuesday after they reported quarterly results. "I always hate to extrapolate the big bank earnings, which are always the first ones, to the rest of the market. The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) advanced to its highest intraday level since March 10, when the start of a mini-bank crisis created a sharp sell-off in the sector. Charles Schwab (SCHW.N) shot higher as the best performer on the S&P 500 after the brokerage posted a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly profit. Equities have rallied recently, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbing to 15-month highs on data showing economic resilience, cooling inflation and a solid labor market.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls & Snyder, JP Morgan, Charles Schwab, Bernstein, Chuck Mikolajczak, Richard Chang Organizations: Bank of America, Dow, Reuters Graphics Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, PNC Financial, PNC, Ingalls &, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Technology, Microsoft, Thomson Locations: New York

☆ Where to invest $10,000 right now if you want to generate the most income, without a ton of risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Meanwhile, preferred securities can see yields around 7%. The Fed's rate hikes also sweetened yields on money market funds and certificates of deposit . Yet what is the best avenue for someone who is looking to generate the most income on a $10,000 investment — without taking on a lot of risk? The ICE BofA Fixed Rate Preferred Securities index, which tracks the performance of fixed-rate preferred securities, has a yield to maturity of 7.1%. "Right now you can't do better … than just owning short- to intermediate term high-grade fixed income," he said.

Persons: There's, Tom Graff, Mitch Goldberg, Goldberg, laddering, you'll, Ian Weinburg, Weinberg, Tim Ghriskey, Snyder, haven't, Ghriskey, Bonds, he'd, Graff Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal, CNBC Pro, Family Wealth, Pension Management, Ingalls, ICE, Securities, Citigroup, XIII, Index, SEC Locations: Baltimore, Melville , N.Y, Woodbury , N.Y, New York, Treasurys, preferreds

"There's a lot of data we're going to see here over the next several weeks as we head to the end of July Fed meeting. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.78% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.39%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) closed 0.84% lower, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) lost 0.25%. The U.S. dollar was holding steady against other major currencies as traders awaited the Fed minutes. The dollar index rose 0.097%, with the euro down 0.04% to $1.0873.

Persons: Mike Segar, Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls & Snyder, Data, Sterling, Brent, Sinéad Carew, Tom Wilson, Stella Qiu, Dhara, Sam Holmes, Helen Popper, Christina Fincher Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasury, Federal, Investors, Tuesday's, Independence, Ingalls &, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Traders, U.S, Brent's, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Tuesday's U.S, New York, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Russia, London, Sydney

☆ Rallying U.S. stocks are pulling in sidelined investors, Deutsche Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) - A steadily rising U.S. stock market appears to be drawing investors off the sideline, one measure of market positioning showed. Positioning among discretionary investors - a cohort that includes everyone from portfolio managers to retail investors - broke out of its one-year underweight range and went above neutral for the first time since February, data from Deutsche Bank showed Friday. The shift comes after months during which discretionary investors sat on the sidelines while systematic investors - funds that take a repeatable data-driven approach and rely on computers to identify investment opportunities - have been steady buyers, according to Deutsche Bank. The S&P 500 index extended its gain last week to 20% from its October lows - one definition of a bull market. "A lot of it has to do simply with stocks moving up ... buyers attract more buyers," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder.

Persons: Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls & Snyder, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: YORK, Deutsche Bank, Stocks, Ingalls &, Federal, Thomson

☆ Behold Wall Street's new bull market, maybe
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Part of the uncertainty is that there is no set definition of a bull or bear market, or any sort of regulatory body that declares one, such as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does with recessions. The most commonly accepted definition is a 20% rise off a low for a bull market and a 20% decline from a high for a bear market, but even that is open to interpretation. "I just think it was a blip within a longer-term bear market." "Certainly it's a bull market in big-cap technology. I wouldn't call it a bull market in a broad market sense, because there are only certain stocks that are really in what we would call bull market territory, and it's just not a broad enough move to call it a sustainable bull market," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist Ingalls & Snyder in New York.

Persons: Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Silverblatt, Sam Stovall, Stovall, Dan Suzuki, Richard Bernstein, Suzuki, it's, Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls, Snyder, Ned Davis, Chuck Mikolajczak, Noel Randewich, Lewis Organizations: YORK, National Bureau of Economic Research, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Dow Jones, Richard, Richard Bernstein Advisors, Nvidia, Ned Davis Research, Thomson Locations: New York

The S&P 500 on Friday closed at its highest level in over nine months after a report showed that wage growth moderated in May. The S&P 500 declined 0.20% to end the session at 4,273.79 points. Of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, seven declined, led lower by industrials (.SPLRCI), down 0.71%, followed by a 0.58% loss in energy (.SPNY). Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) by a 1.5-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted 17 new highs and four new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 90 new highs and 54 new lows.

Persons: Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls, Snyder, Sruthi Shankar, Shristi, Noel Randewich, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Alto Networks, Nasdaq, Dow, U.S . Federal, Apple, Apple Inc, Pro, Nvidia Corp, Tesla Inc, Nvidia, Microsoft Corp, Institute for Supply Management, Fed, Traders, Dow Jones, Palo Alto Networks, Dish Network Corp, Big, Wall Street Journal, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, New York, Palo, Big U.S, Bengaluru, Oakland, Calif

The Labor Department reported that U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in April, pointing to persistent strength in a labor market that suggests pressure on both wages and inflation. Futures traders raised to 70% the probability of a 25 basis points hike at the Fed's June 13-14 policy meeting. FEDWATCHFed Governor and vice chair nominee Philip Jefferson said skipping a rate hike in two weeks would provide policymakers time to see more data before making a decision. The Labor Department's closely watched May unemployment report, due on Friday, could decide whether a rate hike occurs. Intel was the biggest gainer on the S&P 500 as the chipmaker said it was on track to hit the upper end of its second-quarter revenue forecast.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Joe Biden, it's, Brad Conger, Callaghan, Conger, FEDWATCH, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, Tim Ghriskey, we've, Nvidia Corp's, Herbert Lash, Shreyashi Sanyal, Shashwat Chauhan, Shounak Dasgupta, Maju Samuel, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Senate, Co, Labor Department, Philadelphia Fed, Inverness, Labor, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Technology, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Parts Inc, Genuine, O'Reily, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co, Nvidia, Intel, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Conshohocken , Pennsylvania, New York, Bengaluru

☆ Dow, S&P edge up as data, debt ceiling curb gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 47.98 points, or 0.14%, to 33,348.6, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 12.2 points, or 0.30%, to 4,136.28 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 80.47 points, or 0.66%, to 12,365.21. Meta Platforms Inc (META.O) climbed 2.16% as one of the top boosts to both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 after Loop Capital upgraded it to "buy" from "hold." Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidIn a relatively light week for economic data, investors will focus on retail sales, weekly jobless claims and housing data. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 59 new highs and 136 new lows.

Investors will look for clues on whether inflation is continuing to ease following the Labor Department's consumer price index (CPI) report on Wednesday. Shares of PayPal Holdings (PYPL.O) dropped and pressured the benchmark S&P 500 after the company cut its margin forecast. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 4, 2023. Under Armour Inc (UAA.N) fell 5.66% as the sports apparel maker forecast its annual sales and profit below street expectations. The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and 14 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 77 new highs and 171 new lows.

☆ Instant View: Fed hikes another 25 basis points, hints it may be the last increase
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

TOM GARRETSON, STRATEGIST, RBC PORTFOLIO ADVISORY GROUP, MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA"It was a pretty dovish rate hike today. The expectations were that it might be a bit more of a hawkish rate hike in terms of leaving the door open to further hikes if needed." "The updated language in the policy statement does suggest the bar is going to be quite high for further rate hikes. … The market is hoping or expecting the Fed to pause after this rate hike. From a consumer credit perspective, the impact of further rate hikes will likely continue to be felt by borrowers across a range of industries.

☆ Wall Street near flat after First Republic news, awaiting Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed, which has been raising rates to cool inflation, is expected to hike rates an additional 25 basis points on Wednesday. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidEnergy (.SPNY) was down the most of the major S&P 500 sectors, falling 1.3% as crude oil prices declined , . First-quarter results from S&P 500 companies have mostly beaten expectations, easing economic concerns. The S&P 500 technology index (.SPLRCT) climbed 0.2% on Monday, offsetting some of the day's weakness. The S&P 500 posted 35 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 88 new highs and 188 new lows.

☆ Wall Street near flat ahead of Fed decision; regional banks fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

JPMorgan will pay the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp $10.6 billion to take control of most of the regional bank's assets. The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) was up 0.5%, but the KBW regional banking index (.KRX) was down 2.2%. Investors have been on edge about the banking system's health following the collapse of two other regional banks in March. First-quarter results from S&P 500 companies have mostly beaten expectations, easing economic concerns. The S&P 500 posted 35 new 52-week highs and one new low.

☆ Instant View: US March PCE price index shows high, but cooling, inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index gained 0.1% in March after rising 0.3% in February. In the 12 months through March, the PCE price index increased 4.2% after climbing 5.1% in February. "Will the Fed raise rates at the May meeting. I don't think it'll influence them one way or another but we expect them to raise rates again. I don’t think it’s going to impact the Fed much if at all.

☆ World stocks hope for Fed pause, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gold climbed back up above the key $2,000 per ounce level as the dollar came off Monday's peak, while oil prices rose despite Chinese inflation data pointing to persistently weak demand. Investors are eagerly awaiting U.S. consumer prices data on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-over-year (USCPFY=ECI) in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The dollar fell after a strong U.S. jobs report for March showed a resilient labor market, adding to expectations of another Fed rate hike. The dollar index fell 0.244%, with the euro up 0.41% to $1.0904 and the yen weakening 0.12% at 133.78 per dollar.

The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-over-year (USCPFY=ECI) in March. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.5 basis points to 4.043%. "We're just beginning to feel the pain of these much higher interest rates. The dollar fell after a strong U.S. jobs report for March showed a resilient labor market, adding to expectations of another Fed rate hike. The 10-year JGB yield fell to as low as 0.445%, its lowest since April 4, after hovering at 0.465% in the previous session.

The Fed's policy-setting committee raised interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point in a unanimous decision on Wednesday, lifting its benchmark overnight interest rate to the 4.75%-5.00% range. Fed officials still feel that "some additional policy firming" may be needed, and they penciled in one more quarter-of-a-percentage-point rate increase by the end of the year. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note , which is highly sensitive to Fed rate expectations, was down more than 21 basis points in the session. Financial markets went a step further, betting that the Fed won't raise rates any further from here and will be reducing them by this summer. "The Fed has been spooked by Silicon Valley Bank and other banking turmoil.

☆ Instant View: U.S. February CPI increase leaves market guessing on Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

Core CPI without food and energy prices increased 0.5% after rising 0.4% in January. Year over year core CPI gained 5.5% vs 5.6% in January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast monthly CPI and core CPI up 0.4%. So they're going to have to respond to the banking crisis that's probably just not over yet." If the Fed’s worried about saving face or coming off as wishy washy or worried about losing credibility with the market, they're going to raise by 25 basis points.

☆ Wall St ends sharply lower, Treasury yield inversion widens after Powell remarks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"It's a pretty classic risk-off day," said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) closed 0.81% lower, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.25%. Benchmark Treasury yields dipped after Powell's remarks, and the inversion between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, a harbinger of potential recession, steepened. Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 4/32 in price to yield 3.9696%, from 3.983% late on Monday. The 30-year bond last rose 18/32 in price to yield 3.8794%, from 3.912% late on Monday.

☆ Wall Street slides, Treasury yield inversion widens after Powell remarks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File PhotoNEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks plunged, the greenback surged and Treasury yields dipped on Tuesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell concluded the first day of his semi-annual, two-day monetary policy testimonial before Congress. In a broadly risk-off session, the dollar gained strength and inversion between short- and long-dated Treasury yields touched their widest since 1981 as the testimony reaffirmed the Fed's determination to bring inflation down to its 2% target rate. European shares extended their losses after Powell's prepared remarks fueled rate hike worries. Benchmark Treasury yields dipped after Powell's remarks, and the inversion between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, a harbinger of potential recession, hit its steepest differential in over four decades. Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 2/32 in price to yield 3.9754%, from 3.983% late on Monday.

☆ Wall Street drops, Treasury yields gyrate on Fed Chairman Powell's remarks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Toby MelvilleNEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks retreated and benchmark Treasury yields wavered on Tuesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell commenced his semi-annual, two-day monetary policy testimony before Congress. All three major U.S. stock indexes were languid in early trading before Powell's prepared remarks were released as he sat down to testify before the Senate Banking Committee. "(Powell is) stating the obvious - inflation is stubbornly high," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York. Emerging market stocks lost 0.65%. Benchmark Treasury yields initially headed higher after Powell's remarks were released but eased as his testimony began in earnest.

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