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Trump won the presidency in 2016 by stunning Democrat Hillary Clinton to win all three states by a combined margin of about 80,000 votes. But, as in other states, Democrats have been concerned about the risk of depressed turnout and some gains for Trump among Black voters in Philadelphia. Eight years later, the two states split again, when Roosevelt comfortably won Pennsylvania and Michigan narrowly went to Republican Wendell Willkie. This trio of states has arguably become the most consistent tipping point in American politics. In the nine elections since 1920 when they split their vote, the candidate who carried two of these three states won seven times.
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DeSantis saying he’s going to start “slitting throats” reminded me of Romney’s “severely conservative.” While DeSantis’s is a dangerous escalation of violent imagery, they both sound bizarre and unnatural. At a more fundamental level, Bateman wrote:It’s not at all clear that what most Republican voters (rather than donors) want is a mainstream and party credentialed version of Trump. The problem with this approach, Ayres continued, is that “the Always Trump voters are ‘Always Trump’ for a reason — they are not going to settle for the second-best Trump if they can get the real thing.”Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster, wrote:There is no room for DeSantis or anyone else to outflank Trump on the right, where Trump has his most loyal base. Candidates can argue that Trump is insufficiently conservative on some issues, but that it not the point for Trump loyalists. Candidates can try to echo the ugliness of Trump’s rhetoric, but that too misses what really draws these voters to Trump.
Persons: Trump, Romney’s “, Bateman, It’s, Trump’s, ” David O, Sears, , Archie Bunker, Whit Ayres, Republican pollster, DeSantis, RFK Jr, Ayres, Geoff Garin, MAGA, Frances Lee, ” Lee, Organizations: Yale, Harvard, Trump, Republican, Derby, Wimbledon, NPR, Ivy League, for Disease Control, Democratic, Trump loyalists, Republicans Locations: Ukraine, Princeton
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