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☆ Markets just had the most volatile week since the pandemic outbreak — What we learned
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-10 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A wild week of trading on Wall Street ended with the S & P 500 back roughly where it started, but the lessons learned by whipsawed investors over those five days could determine what happens next. The S & P 500 had its worst day since 2022 on Monday, and then its best since 2022 on Thursday. But with the S & P 500 ending the week down less than 0.1% in a calm session on Friday, the market seems to have stabilized. .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500 finished the week nearly flat. And I think that has to do with investors really being a little bit skeptical about some of this equity market volatility."

Persons: Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Gennadiy Goldberg, didn't, Jeremy Schwartz, Peter Berezin, aren't, Wellington, Frank Gretz, RJ O'Brien, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick Organizations: Wall, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, TD Securities, CNBC, Japan —, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, BCA Research, Wellington Shields, Associates Locations: Japan

(This is CNBC Pro's live coverage of Monday's Wall Street chatter as global markets sell off. — Lisa Kailai Han 7:02 a.m.: How long sell-offs typically last Bad news: The current market sell-off may have further to go. — Lisa Kailai Han 6:09 a.m.: Oppenheimer's Stoltzfus: Best to not 'jump to conclusions' Investors need to have a cool head as global markets sell off, according to Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus. — Fred Imbert 5:51 a.m.: Global markets in an 'aggressive risk-unwind', Vital Knowledge says Fears of a U.S. recession are pressuring global markets, leading investors around the world to sell some of this year's top winners, according to Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge. "Markets are caught in an aggressive risk-unwind as equities plunge around the world, with tech getting hit particularly hard," he wrote in a note Monday.

Persons: Wharton's Siegel, Jeremy Siegel, CNBC's, Siegel, hasn't, it's, … They're, —, Lisa Kailai Han, Tom Lee, Lee, Duncan Toms, Toms, Fred Imbert, Victoria Greene, Greene, It's, Nimrit Kang, — Lisa Kailai Han, Dan Ives, Gene Goldman, Gennadiy Goldberg, Ives, Goldman, Goldberg, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, Evercore, Ed Hyman, Hyman, Adam Crisafulli, Crisafulli Organizations: CNBC, Stock, Nikkei, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Wharton, Federal Reserve, Fundstrat Global, HSBC, G Squared, Wealth, NorthStar Asset Management, Street, Wedbush, TD Securities, Federal, NASDAQ, U.S, Fed, Global Locations: U.S, Europe, Japan, China

☆ The bond market is on watch for a Trump win. What it'll mean for the deficit, inflation, and yields.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

AdvertisementThe chart below shows a Trump lead based on how users are betting money on an outcome on Predictit's platform. So there's not really any change to tax policy and Trump has been looking to cut taxes further on companies and potentially on individuals as well." AdvertisementInflationWhere inflation is concerned, under a second Trump administration, expect a 10% import tariff on all goods. BondsAdvertisementExpectations for increased deficits, higher inflation, and slower growth have put upward pressure on interest rates over the last few weeks, Goldberg noted. And going forward, it's going to continue to put downward pressure on bond prices and upward pressure on yields, he added.

Persons: We've, Gennadiy Goldberg, Kamala Harris, — Goldberg, Goldberg, there's, Trump, Trump's, it's, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, TD Securities, Business, Republican, Trump, Predictit, Republican House, Democratic, Republicans, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Pew Research Center Trump, Washington, Federal Reserve, Investors Locations: Washington, Mexico, Canada

☆ Two market experts on the recent sell-off in stocks and surge in bond yields
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo market experts on the recent sell-off in stocks and surge in bond yieldsBill Stone, The Glenview Trust Company CIO, and Gennadiy Goldberg, TD Securities Head of U.S. Rates Strategy, discuss how January's hotter-than-expected CPI report impacts the markets, rates, and the Fed.

Persons: Bill Stone, Gennadiy Goldberg Organizations: Glenview Trust Company, Securities

☆ Two market watchers discuss the significant moves in stocks and bonds yesterday
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo market watchers discuss the significant moves in stocks and bonds yesterdayGina Sanchez, Chantico Global CEO, and Gennadiy Goldberg, TD Securities Head of U.S. Rates Strategy, discuss the rally in stocks and move lower in bond yields yesterday.

Persons: Gina Sanchez, Gennadiy Goldberg Organizations: Chantico Global, Securities

☆ Are US Treasurys still a safe-haven asset? An epic bond-market crash and rising default fears are sowing doubts.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Financial markets have been engaged in a growing debate over the risks that lurk in Treasurys, with prominent voices raising doubts. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn March, a Richard Bernstein Advisors note said spreads on credit default swaps have climbed for Treasurys since since 2011, when the federal government was issued its first credit downgrade. Then came this spring's debt-ceiling drama and the US credit downgrade in August from Fitch, which cited the rising debt burden and political dysfunction. If a downgrade follows, then US debt wouldn't be in the safest category for default risk at any of the three major ratings agencies. Several auctions for long-dated Treasurys have seen weak demand, and buyers are demanding higher compensation for the risk of carrying Treasurys.

Persons: —, Moody's, they've, Mohamed El, Erian, Asset's Seema Shah, Treasurys, Richard Bernstein, Gennadiy Goldberg isn't Organizations: Service, Federal, CNBC, Dallas Federal, Richard Bernstein Advisors, Fitch, Penn Wharton Budget, Securities Locations: Treasurys, there's, US

☆ Ukraine Investigates Birthday Explosion That Killed Military Aide
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Constant Méheut | More About Constant Méheut | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Ukrainian prosecutors announced on Tuesday that they had opened an investigation into a bizarre explosion at a birthday celebration that killed an aide to Ukraine’s top military commander, in what the authorities portrayed as a tragic accident. The prosecutor’s office said that one of the grenades had been picked up by the major’s son. While taking the grenade from the boy, “the officer pulled the ring, which caused the explosion,” the office said in a statement. Prosecutors said that Major Chastyakov, an aide to Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, commander in chief of the Ukrainian military, had been killed on the spot by the explosion. There was no explanation of why someone would give the major grenades as a present or why he would have pulled the ring.

Persons: Gennadiy Chastyakov, Chastyakov, Valery Zaluzhny Organizations: Prosecutors Locations: Ukraine’s, Kyiv

☆ Live grenade in birthday gift kills aide to Ukraine’s military chief
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Rob Picheta | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Kyiv, Ukraine CNN —An aide to the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s military was killed after receiving a live grenade as a birthday present that was immediately detonated by his 13-year-old son. Chastyakov’s 13-year-old son then picked up one of the grenades and started turning the ring, Klymenko wrote. Zaluzhny, the chief of Ukraine’s military, wrote on Telegram that his “assistant and close friend” died “under tragic circumstances.”Police found five more unexploded grenades in the apartment, Klymenko said. Police said criminal proceedings had been initiated and an investigation is ongoing, though the Ukrainian interior ministry later said it considers the death an “accident” based on preliminary information. Klymenko assisted Zaluzhny as the military chief led Ukrainian troops in the war with Russia.

Persons: Major Gennadiy Chastyakov, Valery Zaluzhny, Ihor Klymenko, Klymenko, Chastyakov, ”, ” Mariana Reva, ” Reva, “, Zaluzhny, Reva, Volodymyr Zelensky Organizations: Ukraine CNN, Ukrainian, ” Police, police, Police, Ministry of Interior, Armed Forces of Locations: Kyiv, Ukraine, Klymenko, Ukrainian, Russia, Armed Forces of Ukraine

The U.S. central bank could even be forced to raise rates to ensure the pace of inflation remains on a downward trajectory and does not bounce back, Goldberg said. Markets also imply about an 80% probability the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates by April, while the Bank of England (BoE) is seen easing in August. An outlier is Australia's central bank, which is considered likely to resume raising rates at a policy meeting on Tuesday as inflation there stays stubbornly high. The head of the central bank said on Monday it was closer to achieving its inflation target, but it was still not enough to end ultra-loose policy. The drop in the dollar and yields has helped underpin gold, as investors have cautiously turned back to riskier assets.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Anthony Saglimbene, Saglimbene, We're, BoE, Jerome Powell, Herbert Lash, Wayne Cole, Alun John, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Mark Potter, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of England, ECB, The Bank of Japan, ., Germany's, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, New York, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Troy , Michigan, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia

Hopes for lower borrowing costs overnight helped shares in Asia, which missed out on Friday's rally that was inspired by the U.S. jobs data. DOLLAR DROPSTwo-year Treasury yields , which reflect interest rate expectations, rose 5.9 bps to 4.891% after falling 18 bps last week. The recent retreat in Treasury yields pulled the rug out from under the dollar last week. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, was steady at 105.07 after sliding 1.4% last week. U.S. crude rose 1.73% to $81.90 per barrel and Brent was at $86.07, up 1.39% on the day.

Persons: Issei Kato, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, BoE, Samy Chaar, Jerome Powell, Brent, Herbert Lash, Wayne Cole, Alun John, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Wall, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Lombard, ECB, The Bank of Japan, ., Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe, New York, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, East, Israel, Gaza

☆ Foreign bond investors are 'extremely concerned' about US deficits while the risk of China and Japan dumping Treasurys looms large
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Foreign bond investors are "extremely concerned" about US deficits, a TD Securities analyst told Insider. The possible dumping of US assets in Japan and China looms large over bond markets. AdvertisementAdvertisementTo be sure, US bond yields retreated sharply over the past week after they hit 17-year highs last month amid a massive bond sell-off. US Treasury demand is hitting another headwind as yields around the world have shot up as well, according to Goldberg. "Europe was at negative interest rates, Japan was at negative interest rates.

Persons: —, Gennadiy Goldberg, It's, Goldberg, that's Organizations: TD, Treasury, Service, TD Securities, Fitch, Treasury Department Locations: Japan, China, Europe, Beijing, Tokyo

☆ Ukraine's Siberian Battalion Recruits Russians to Help Fight Moscow
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Oct. | At P.M. | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +3 min

Their commander, a Ukrainian who introduced himself by the callsign Batya, said some of the recruits to Ukraine's newly-formed Siberian Battalion, the yellow and blue flag on their sleeves, were now ready for battle. The officer said most are from among the indigenous peoples of Siberia and recruits said they want to fight against what they said was Russian imperialism both inside Ukraine and in their homelands. Without pity for women, children or the elderly," said a 41-year-old from Moscow region with the callsign Gandhi. The Siberian Battalion's own Gandhi now wants to break up what he called Russia's "prison of nations". "I think this will help the empire to collapse, the prison to be destroyed," he added.

Persons: Max Hunder, Gennadiy, Vladimir Putin, Gandhi, Alexander Smith Organizations: Reuters, Siberian Battalion, Military, Free Buryatia, Kremlin, Ukraine, Russia, Gandhi Locations: Max Hunder KYIV, Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukrainian, Russia, Siberia, Russian, Buryatia, Lake Baikal, Moscow

☆ Relentless climb in Treasury yields may have further to run after surging to 5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( David Randall | Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. “That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, ’ ”, Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, ”, Gennadiy Goldberg, ” Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, “ Organizations: YORK, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine

☆ Falling stocks, climbing mortgage rates: how 5% Treasury yields could roil markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated and mounting U.S. fiscal concerns are among the factors driving the move. Because the $25-trillion Treasury market is considered the bedrock of the global financial system, soaring yields on U.S. government bonds have had wide-ranging effects. "The longer we remain at higher interest rates, the more likely something is to break." Elon Musk warned that high interest rates could sap electric-vehicle demand, which knocked shares of the sector on Thursday. Reuters GraphicsThe U.S. dollar has advanced an average of about 6.4% against its G10 peers since the rise in Treasury yields accelerated in mid-July.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, Powell, Elon Musk, Tesla’s, gravitating, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Reuters, Global Research, Reuters Graphics, ICE, Fed, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Treasuries

Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. "That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, ”, Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine

☆ Foreign holdings of US Treasuries in August hit highest since December 2021 -data
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Total holdings of U.S. Treasuries climbed to $7.707 trillion in August from $7.655 trillion the previous month. "There is still buying coming through from foreign investors. China's holdings of Treasuries fell further to $805.4 billion in August, the lowest since May 2009, when it had $776.4 billion, data showed. Data further showed, major U.S. asset classes showed inflows during the month. Overall, foreign residents increased their holdings of long-term U.S. securities in August; net purchases were $61.3 billion, according to U.S. Treasury data.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Treasuries, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Jonathan Oatis, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, Treasuries, Treasury, U.S, TD Securities, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Japan, New York, Treasuries, China

☆ Rates are rangebound and in an air pocket of 4.5% to 5.32%, says TD Securities
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRates are rangebound and in an air pocket of 4.5% to 5.32%, says TD SecuritiesGennadiy Goldberg, Head of U.S. Rates Strategy at TD Securities, discusses what's driving Treasury yields higher.

Persons: Securities Gennadiy Goldberg Organizations: Securities, TD Securities

The collective impact of higher rates across the economy could also weaken the government's own finances. With borrowing rates high and inflation still relatively elevated, consumers, who drive about 70% of economic growth, are expected to spend more cautiously. “Those tighter, higher rates will have an impact on the economy.”Financial analysts point to several reasons for the rapid increase in lending rates. Overseas buyers have reduced their purchases, thereby forcing rates higher to attract buyers. “All of that is driving these fears of higher rates, and no one knows when it’s going to stop,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Freddie Mac, Loretta Mester, ” Mester, it’s, ”, Gennadiy Goldberg, Benson Durham, Piper Sandler, Durham, Jerome Powell, ‘, we’re, ’ ”, Nancy Vanden Houten, David Page Organizations: WASHINGTON, United Auto Workers, Representatives, Republican, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, ”, Fed, Treasury Department, TD Securities, Oxford Economics, AXA Locations: U.S, ’ ” Durham, London

The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. Broadly speaking, higher rates for longer could be an unwelcome turn of events for stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 lost 0.94% on Wednesday, while the yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflect interest rate expectations, hit 17-year highs. Futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate late Wednesday showed traders were betting the central bank would ease monetary policy by a total of nearly 60 basis points next year, bringing interest rates to about 4.8%. Signs of wobbling growth could bolster the case for the central bank to cut rates far sooner than it had projected.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Josh Jamner, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, …, David Norris, John Madziyire, ”, Norris, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Herbert Lash, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S ., Clearbridge Investments, TD Securities USA, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

☆ Stocks waver, short-end U.S. yields rise after hawkish Fed statement
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"They're talking about higher rates for longer, but it's really the economy that matters. MSCI's U.S.-centric gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.25% as stocks on Wall Street mostly slid. "Right now the message is we're going to leave rates higher for longer to make sure we slay the inflation dragon. Sterling came under pressure after data showed Britain's high inflation rate fell unexpectedly in August, prompting speculation that the Bank of England could pause its historic run of interest rate hikes as soon as Thursday. The dollar index rose 0.076%, with the euro down 0.02% to $1.0675.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Powell, Gennadiy Goldberg, it's, Anthony Saglimbene, Sterling, Brent, Herbert Lash, Dhara Ranasinghe, Samuel Indyk, Tom Westbrook, Toby Chopra, Chizu Nomiyama, Sharon Singleton, Aurora Ellis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of England, Bank of, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, MSCI's U.S, Troy , Michigan, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Britain, London, Singapore

☆ Analysts react to Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Fed policymakers at the median still see the central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate peaking this year in the 5.50%-5.75% range, just a quarter of a percentage point above the current range. I do think that they'll remain data dependent and you'll probably hear that from Powell at the 2:30 press conference and going forward as well. So yes, they're talking about higher rates for longer, but it's really the economy that matters. This is because when the Fed announces an interest rate increase, credit card interest rates typically follow shortly thereafter, which may result in larger minimum monthly payments for credit card holders. While the decision not to raise interest rates this time round mitigates that for now, more interest rate increases may be on the horizon.

Persons: Jerome Powell, GARRETT MELSON, presser, GINA BOLVIN, Powell, BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, KARL SCHAMOTTA, GENNADIY GOLDBERG, it's, TOM MARTIN, MICHELE RANERI Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Fed, PPI, OF, TOM, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: BOSTON, Powell, WISCONSIN, TORONTO, U.S, ATLANTA, CHICAGO

☆ Foreign holdings of US Treasuries increase in July, China holdings plunge -data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Total holdings of U.S. Treasuries climbed to $7.655 trillion in July, up from $7.562 trillion in the previous month. China's stash of Treasuries dropped to $821.8 billion, the lowest since May 2009, when it had $776.4 billion, data showed. "A lot of the increase in foreign holdings was from the Caymans, Luxembourg, Bermuda, which are associated with custodians. Major U.S. asset classes showed mixed results during the month, data showed. Data also showed U.S. residents increased their holdings of long-term foreign securities, with net purchases of $36.8 billion in July.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Treasuries, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Chris Reese, Sonali Paul Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, Treasury, Analysts, TD Securities, U.S, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Treasuries, China, New York, Luxembourg, Bermuda, Japan

REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsSept 5 (Reuters) - A post Labor-day rush of bond issuance by U.S. investment-grade-rated companies added renewed pressure on long-end U.S. Treasuries, as some investors switch to buying top-rated corporate debt offering higher yields than those on government bonds. Investors told Reuters they expect anywhere between $100 billion and $150 billion in new bond issuance this month. Ten-year Treasury bond yields were last about nine basis points above Friday's market closing, at 4.27% from 4.180%, and 30-year yields similarly climbed about 9 bps to 4.38% from 4.285% on Friday. Other factors have also contributed to the selloff, from higher government bond supply to rising concerns around U.S. debt sustainability, as highlighted by Fitch’s downgrade of U.S. debt last month. "For right now, it’s just all about supply, and I think that’s what’s pushing yields higher," he said.

Persons: Florence Lo, Gennadiy Goldberg, Tom di Galoma, it’s, Philip Morris, Matt Tracy, Davide Barbuscia Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Financing, Investors, Reuters, Fed, ICE, TD Securities USA, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase, Tuesday's, Unilever Capital Corp, Philip Morris International, Volkswagen, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Inflation Has Been Easing Fast, but Wild Cards Lie Ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

“Inflation is going the right way,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a rates strategist at TD Securities. Slower rent increases should help to weigh down overall inflation for at least the next year, several economists said. The world’s second-largest economy is growing much more slowly than expected after reopening from pandemic lockdowns. And more generally, Fed policy should help to pull down inflation in the months to come. The central bank has raised interest rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent over the past year and a half.

Persons: ”, Gennadiy Goldberg Organizations: TD Securities Locations: China

Some analysts warn that rising yields could push up borrowing costs, causing the economic slowdown investors are now betting against. The key question is how much further bear steepening the market needs to see for "investors to become nervous," he added. In 2018, for instance, the curve shifted to a bear-steepening dynamic as the economy appeared to hold up well despite the Fed's tightening. Risks remain, however, warned Jonathan Cohn, head of US Rates Desk Strategy at Nomura Securities International, including the pain for companies refinancing debt at higher rates and China's weakening growth. BEARISH BETSSome investors are worried that Powell’s speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, could trigger a short squeeze.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Michael Harris, Gennadiy Goldberg, Alfonso Peccatiello, Peccatiello, Jonathan Cohn, Powell, Harris, Eoin Walsh, Jim Cahn, Cahn, Michael Edwards, Weiss, there'd, Edwards, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Megan Davies, Mark Porter Organizations: Treasury, Futures, Quest Partners, Securities USA, Fed, Nomura Securities International, Investors, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Carolina

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