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☆ China is trying to give investors the one major thing missing from its economic stimulus blitz
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China is expected to announce extra fiscal policy support on Saturday. The lack of consumer support in China's last stimulus package disappointed investors. According to a Bloomberg survey, most analysts expect authorities to pledge $283 billion of fiscal stimulus at Saturday's highly anticipated press conference. Chinese authorities followed up by announcing Saturday's press conference, which promised to introduce new measures centered on fiscal policy. Some analysts remain less sure about what fiscal stimulus will actually achieve on its own, pointing out that Beijing needs to pursue structural reforms to revive consumer confidence.

Persons: —, Lan Fo'an, China's, Mark Williams, Stephen Roach, Arthur Kroeber, Gavekal Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Finance, Analysts, CSI, Reform Commission, Capital Economics, Asia, Financial Times Locations: China, Beijing, Yale

☆ Global recession risks: The variable is the United States, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGlobal recession risks: The variable is the United States, analyst saysArthur Kroeber, founding partner and head of research at Gavekal Dragonomics, says "the world has not been principally relying on China as a source of demand."

Persons: Arthur Kroeber, Dragonomics Locations: United States, China

☆ Strained Chinese cities struggle to pay home buying subsidies
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Chinese cities have promised subsidies and other incentives to prop up the ailing property sector but have failed to deliver, frustrating potential homebuyers. The 30-year-old now pays 6,000 yuan of her 8,000 monthly salary on the mortgage for the 1.1 million yuan apartment and another 1,800 yuan to rent another one, relying on her parents for other basic expenses. Weifang, with a population of more than 9 million and an economy larger than Croatia's, and dozens of other Chinese cities, have promised subsidies and other incentives to homebuyers to prop up the ailing property sector. But the real estate downturn also affects the ability of cities to lease land to developers, a key revenue source. This meant some local governments were unable to raise funds to pay the promised subsidies, frustrating buyers and casting doubts over future support measures.

Persons: Amy Wang, Wang, Christopher Beddor, Gavekal Organizations: People's, Communist Party Locations: Hangzhou city, Zhejiang province, China, Weifang, Shangqiu

☆ ‘Cherry on the Cake’: How China Views the U.S. Crackdown on TikTok
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( Ravi Mattu | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

He spoke with DealBook about how China views the latest U.S. crackdown on TikTok. How does China see the latest TikTok fight? Chinese state media and government spokespeople have made it clear that this is very unwelcome. State media is keeping its powder dry because there are still several steps before ByteDance might have to sell TikTok in the U.S. Before this looks really imminent, state media is not rallying citizens to object too much.

Persons: Dan Wang, Wang, Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai, DealBook, spokespeople, ByteDance Organizations: Yale Law, Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, U.S Locations: China, United States, America, Beijing, U.S

☆ Goldman Sachs says these China stocks can win even if there's a repeat of Japan's lost decades
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Goldman Sachs calls the China story today one of "rebalancing," and has picked 40 buy-rated stocks to play the theme. They predict certain consumer names, artificial intelligence companies and rising global players will be among the Chinese stocks that can do well. December data and fourth-quarter GDP due out late Tuesday New York time may give more clues on China's economic trajectory — and whether policymakers need to act. For China's economic outlook, comparisons to Japan may ultimately be more academic as the debate has become more about the extent to which national security has replaced economic growth as the priority. "Very often I'm asked the question, will China ignore development as it talks more about security?"

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Japan's, Kinger Lau, Morgan, Robin Xing, Goldman, Lau, Li Qiang, Liu, SICC, Arthur Kroeber, Dragonomics, Liu Jianchao, Michael Bloom Organizations: Beijing, China Equity, China New Economy Summit, China, New, Invesco, Central Commission, Financial, Economic Affairs, Laboratories, U.S . Food, Drug Administration, U.S, StarPower Semiconductor, Wire China, Communist Party's, Foreign Locations: China, Japan, Hong Kong, Beijing, New York, Davos, Shanghai, U.S, Shenzhen, Europe

Local governments plan to use the proceeds of the latest bond sales to purchase equity or convertible bonds from smaller banks, most of them state-owned, effectively recapitalising them, according to the deal prospectuses. DEEPER IN DEBTThe intensified efforts to support smaller banks also come amid growing worries about the impact of ballooning local government debt on the economy. While policymakers are highly concerned over rising debt levels, Beijing has little option but to support smaller banks to contain spillover risks, analysts said. It was not immediately clear if the central authorities had given any guidance to the local governments on recapitalising smaller banks, and who were the buyers of these special-purpose bonds. "Local governments are a likely the first line of defense whenever regional banks become stressed," they said.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Gavekal, Zhang Xiaoxi, Pan Gongsheng, Ziyi Tang, Ryan Woo, Sumeet Chatterjee, Kim Coghill Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Rights, China Electronic Local Government Bond, Authorities, National Financial Regulatory Administration, International Monetary Fund, Beijing, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Rights BEIJING, China, Henan, China's, Liaoning, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia

☆ China wealth manager Zhongzhi flags insolvency, $64 bln in liabilities
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BEIJING, Nov 23 (Reuters) - China's Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, a leading wealth manager, told investors it is heavily insolvent with up to $64 billion in liabilities, threatening to reignite concerns that the country's property debt crisis is spilling over into the broader financial sector. The firm, which has sizable exposure to China's real estate sector, apologised to its investors in a letter that said it had total liabilities of about 420 billion yuan ($58 billion) to 460 billion yuan ($64 billion). The liabilities compared to Zhongzhi's estimated total assets of about 200 billion yuan, according to the letter, which was issued on Wednesday and was seen by Reuters. 'ENORMOUS' HOLESigns of trouble at the Zhongzhi group first came to light in July when Zhongrong International Trust Co, a leading trust company controlled by Zhongzhi, missed payments on dozens of investment products. "The Zhongzhi group deeply apologises for the losses caused to investors.

Persons: Zhongzhi, Xu, Xing Zhaopeng, Christopher Beddor, Beddor, Ziyi Tang, Ryan Woo, Sumeet Chatterjee, Muralikumar Organizations: Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, Reuters, International Trust Co, Big, ANZ, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, Zhongzhi, China's, China

☆ China wealth manager Zhongzhi flags insolvency, $64 billion in liabilities
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Nathaniel Taplin — Asia Editor, Heard on the Street at The Wall Street Journal
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Nathaniel TaplinNathaniel Taplin is the main columnist on China's economy and political economy for Heard on the Street, The Wall Street Journal's economic and financial commentary section. Before moving to the Journal, he spent five years in Beijing and Shanghai with Thomson Reuters and the independent macro consultancy Gavekal Dragonomics. While in China he traveled widely and reported on issues ranging from local government debt to protests against financial products gone bust and the market crises of 2015 and 2016. At Gavekal, he headed up global commodities coverage and wrote extensively on China’s energy sector, industry and trade. Nathaniel is a two time finalist for the Society of Publishers in Asia award for excellence.

Persons: Nathaniel Taplin Nathaniel Taplin, Heard, Nathaniel Organizations: Thomson Reuters, Society of Publishers Locations: Asia, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Gavekal

An aerial view shows the 39 buildings developed by China Evergrande Group that authorities have issued demolition order, on the man-made Ocean Flower Island in Danzhou, Hainan province, China January 6, 2022. "The (investigation into Hui) clearly shows that Chinese policymakers prioritise political considerations to economic ones in dealing with Evergrande," he said. Evergrande and China's housing authority did not immediately respond to requests for comment during the week long National Day holiday. Gavekal in its report said that at the very least, an orderly restructuring of Evergrande seemed increasingly hard to achieve. A liquidation petition filed against Evergrande is scheduled for hearing in a Hong Kong court on Oct 30.

Persons: Aly, Hui Ka Yan, Hui, Xin Sun, Evergrande, Christopher Beddor, Sandra Chow, bondholder, Antonio Fatas, Xie Yu, Clare Jim, Kane Wu, Sumeet Chatterjee, Lincoln Organizations: China Evergrande Group, REUTERS, China Evergrande, HK, lurched, East Asian, King's College London, SOE, Evergrande, Thomson Locations: Danzhou, Hainan province, China, HONG KONG, Beijing, homebuyers, Asia, Pacific, Gavekal, Hong Kong, Evergrande

HONG KONG/BEIJING, Sept 28 (Reuters) - China Evergrande Group's (3333.HK) founder is being investigated over suspected "illegal crimes", the embattled developer said on Thursday, as creditors become increasingly concerned about the group's prospects amid an uncertain debt revamp plan and liquidation risk. Evergrande has been working to get creditors' approval for restructuring its offshore debt. The offshore debt restructuring plan now looks set to falter and the risks of the company being liquidated are rising, some analysts said. An Evergrande sign is seen near residential buildings at an Evergrande residential complex in Beijing, China September 27, 2023. "We believe that Evergrande's debt turmoil has had a great turmoil and negative impact on the global economy, and the things behind it are not simple."

Persons: Hui Ka Yan, Evergrande, Hui, Gary Ng, Ng, Florence Lo, They've, Christopher Beddor, Yan Yuejin, Saxo, Redmond Wong, Upasana Singh, Donny Kwok, Scott Murdoch, Ziyi Tang, Anne Marie Roantree, Sumeet Chatterjee, Kim Coghill, Shri Navaratnam, Lincoln, Miral Fahmy, Susan Fenton Organizations: HK, Trading, Asia Pacific, Reuters, REUTERS, Evergrande, China Research, Development Institution, Buyers, China Market, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, BEIJING, China, Asia, Beijing, Evergrande, Shanghai, Bengaluru, Hong Kong, Sydney

☆ China’s growth is buried under great wall of debt
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Most of these 3,000-plus entities were created by local governments during the 2008 crisis to skirt a central government ban on direct state borrowing. These vehicles had already accumulated 80 trillion yuan of liabilities at the end of 2022, according to analysts at Guosheng Securities. At a more optimistic 30% discount, the proceeds would jump to 55 trillion yuan, which would cover all outstanding interest-bearing debt. S&P analysts calculate that about 20 trillion yuan of LGFVs’ loans may be at risk of restructuring. If Xi won't boost property wholeheartedly and is not able to count on consumers, his efforts to revive China’s growth have to focus on smashing the great wall of local debt.

Persons: Wen Jiabao, Xi Jinping, Wen, Xi, Peter Thal Larsen, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Reuters, HK, Guosheng Securities, Citi, Finance, Reuters Graphics, Financial Times, Investment, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Shanghai, New York, China's Southwestern Guizhou, United States

☆ Investors’ China aversion is bad for everyone
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

FIERCE RESTRAINTAs a country on the cusp of high-income status, China ought to be a magnet for overseas investors. Companies in the MSCI China Index trade at 10 times their expected earnings for the next twelve months, half the level of the S&P 500 Index. However, assets following these mandates remain insignificant compared to the $1.3 trillion benchmarked to MSCI’s Emerging Markets Index. However, they have played a bigger role in the past decade funding Chinese companies through Hong Kong and U.S. listings. Chinese equities have a combined market value of $15 trillion, greater than Japanese, French, Indian and British stocks combined.

Persons: Xi Jinping, Goldman Sachs, Gavekal Dragonomics, Gavekal, Tesla, John Welling, Dow, Xi, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, U.S . Federal, People’s Bank of, Treasury, HK, Companies, Apple, Microsoft, BlackRock, China, WHO, International, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Dow Jones, Global, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, China, People’s Republic, People’s Bank of China, United States, Hong Kong, U.S, Gulf, Asia, North America, Shanghai, Shenzhen

The difficulty of this achievement also shows the resilience of the country’s chip technological ability," TechInsights analyst Dan Hutcheson said. EUV refers to extreme ultraviolet lithography and is used to make 7 nm or more advanced chips. LIMITED ACHIEVEMENTThe most advanced chip SMIC had previously been known for making was 14nm, as it was barred by Washington in late 2020 from obtaining an EUV machine from Dutch firm ASML (ASML.AS). But TechInsights last year said it believed SMIC had managed to produce 7 nm chips by tweaking simpler DUV machines it could still purchase freely from ASML. Jefferies analysts reckon Huawei is preparing to ship ten million units of the Mate 60 Pro, though it may struggle to support that quantity with China-made 7 nm chips.

Persons: Gina Raimondo's, chipmaker SMIC, Dan Hutcheson, EUV, Jefferies, TechInsights, SMIC, Tilly Zhang, Dragonomics, Zhang, Doug Fuller, David Kirton, Max Cherney, Brenda Goh, Miyoung Kim, Nick Zieminski Organizations: FRANCISCO, Huawei Technologies, U.S, Huawei, U.S . Commerce, Kirin, HK, U.S . Commerce Department's, of Industry, Security, China, U.S . Department of Commerce, China's State Council, Reuters, Copenhagen Business School, Thomson Locations: SHENZHEN, China, California, Washington, Ottawa, U.S, China's, Netherlands

China cut its one-year benchmark lending rate on Monday, which is set to further weigh on banks' NIM. Chinese commercial banks' NIM shrank sharply to 1.74% last quarter from 1.91% at the end of 2022, official data showed. Shares of China's biggest five banks have been sliding since early May amid concerns over the weakening economy. Debt-laden municipalities represent a major risk to China's economy and financial stability, after years of over-investment in infrastructure and plummeting returns from land sales. Still, there's really no getting around the fact that banks will need to sacrifice profitability to support the economy this year," Beddor added.

Persons: Florence, headwinds, Gary Ng, NIM, Christopher Beddor, there's, Beddor, Ziyi Tang, Ryan Woo, Sumeet Chatterjee, Himani Organizations: Bank of Communications, Fair for Trade, Services, REUTERS, China Construction Bank, Corporate, Investment Banking, Industrial, Commercial Bank of China, Bank of Communications Co, Agricultural Bank of China, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING

Economists say China needs measures to boost consumption and business confidence, such as tax cuts or government-funded consumption vouchers, but add that unlike previous slowdowns, there is no quick fix. Wang's comments came after weak economic activity data on Tuesday fuelled concern that China is heading for a deeper, longer slowdown. The private sector accounts for 60% of gross domestic product and 80% of urban employment, officials say. But there is a growing disconnect between officials calling for investment and a sweeping national security crackdown that is denting business confidence, diplomats in China say. One example was a recent anti-espionage law, accompanied by raids on some foreign consultancy firms, that sent waves of anxiety through the foreign business community.

Persons: Xi Jinping, Tingshu Wang, Joe Biden, Biden, Xi, Christopher Beddor, Wang Wenbin, Wang's, Lee Smith, Baker Donelson, Xu Chenggang, Xu, Laurie Chen, Yew Lun Tian, Martin Quin Pollard, John Geddie, Robert Birsel Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, GAP, State, U.S . Department of Commerce, Stanford University's Center, Chinese Communist Party, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights BEIJING, U.S, loggerheads, Taiwan

☆ It's clear that China's unlikely to roll out a 'massive stimulus,' analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's clear that China's unlikely to roll out a 'massive stimulus,' analyst saysArthur Kroeber, founding partner and head of research at Gavekal Dragonomics, says the "massive stimulus that we've been used to in China over the last 15 years every time they got a slowdown — I don't think we're going to get that again."

Persons: Arthur Kroeber, Dragonomics Locations: China

☆ China is still 'pretty far behind' its global peers in chipmaking, says tech analyst
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is still 'pretty far behind' its global peers in chipmaking, says tech analystDan Wang of Gavekal Dragonomics says China will have a "hard road to walk" as Chinese semiconductor production and lithography technologies fall behind.

Persons: Dan Wang, Gavekal Dragonomics Organizations: China Locations: chipmaking, China

☆ Li Qiang becomes China's premier, tasked with reviving economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Li Qiang, likely to become the next premier, is pictured here speaking at a major annual financial conference in Shanghai in 2020. Li Qiang, the former Communist Party chief of Shanghai, took office on Saturday as China's premier, the country's No.2 post, putting the close ally of President Xi Jinping in charge of reviving an economy battered by three years of COVID-19 curbs. Li Qiang is the first premier since the founding of the People's Republic never to have served previously in the central government, meaning he may face a steep learning curve in the initial months on the job, analysts said. Still, Li's close ties with Xi - Li was Xi's chief of staff between 2004 and 2007, when the latter was provincial party secretary of Zhejiang province - will empower him to get things done, leadership-watchers said. "My reading of the situation is that Li Qiang will have a lot more leeway and authority within the system," said Trey McArver, co-founder of consultancy Trivium China.

But retail investors are haunted by the regulatory purges, volatility and losses since 2021. With 212 million retail investors, equal to Brazil's population, the conservatism of China's retail army has implications for the viability of the rally. Individual retail investor transactions accounted for about 60% of the total A-shares turnover in late 2022, China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Yi Huiman said in November. But data shows barely any investor accounts being opened and the margin financing that retail investors typically use has plateaued. Retail investors are waiting for clearer policy signals, said Lei Meng, China equities strategist at UBS Securities.

☆ China's 'great migration' kicks-off under shadow of COVID
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( Casey Hall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

BORDER REOPENINGSunday marks the reopening of China's border with Hong Kong and the end of China's requirement for inbound international travellers to quarantine. More than a dozen countries are now demanding COVID tests from Chinese travellers, as the World Health Organisation said China's official virus data underreported the true extent of its outbreak. In Shanghai, for example, the city government on Friday announced an end to free PCR tests for residents from Jan. 8. China has relied on nine domestically-developed COVID vaccines approved for use, including inactivated vaccines, but none have been adapted to target the highly-transmissible Omicron variant and its offshoots currently in circulation. China reported three new COVID deaths in the mainland for Friday, bringing its official virus death toll to 5,267, one of the lowest in the world.

Property investment in November fell the fastest since the statistics bureau began compiling data in 2000, down 19.9% on year. "Although property sales and starts will likely be slightly weaker than in 2022, property will be much less of a drag on the economy than in 2022." Reuters GraphicsHOUSING DEMANDShares in embattled Chinese property developers have gained 86% since the trough in October, buoyed by a string of property easing measures and the COVID policy u-turn. "We may be close to see some bottoming out in housing demand …but I don't think we're quite there yet," he said. The latest China Beige Book private economic survey was more blunt: "But forget a return to days of old: it will take considerable policy support in 2023 just to pull property out of the gutter."

Many investors say that stocks of drugmakers and medical equipment companies, however, will likely get a more lasting lift from China's bumpy journey towards an eventual economic opening. Investors have snapped up Chinese tourism (.CSI930633), leisure (.CSI930654), retailing (.CSI930674) and food and beverage stocks (.CSI930653) over the past week. "After curbs are relaxed, China could experience the impact from surging virus cases, along with rising deaths, potentially hitting the economy," the brokerage said. "I think it's reasonable to think that as infections rise, they're going to have shortages in some areas of workers," he said. Grow Investment Group chief economist Hong Hao, warning of confusion and chaotic expectations ahead, recommended internet platform companies and food delivery firms in the short term.

☆ China's stocks, yuan tumble as COVID protests rattle nerves
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A U.S. crackdown on Chinese tech giants citing national security concerns also weighed on shares of technology firms. Nevertheless, the social unrest and rising coronavirus cases had fuelled expectations of an earlier end to China's zero-COVID policy, putting a floor under stocks and boosting tourism and consumer shares. "The market does not like uncertainties that are difficult to price and the China protests clearly fall into this category. While state media has not reported the protests, photos and videos of the protests circulated on social media. "The demonstrations ... mean the current COVID policy mix is no longer politically sustainable.

☆ China sees protests against COVID curbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

CHINA PROTESTS Fire deaths fuel COVID lockdown fury How the protests gained momentumProtests have flared in several cities in mainland China in recent days, in a wave of civil disobedience unprecedented since President Xi Jinping assumed power a decade ago. Protests reported across China Protest mapAlthough the demonstrations in recent days are thousands of miles apart, they share elements in common. Video shows crowds topple police barricades in the street to protest against COVID curbs in China’s Guangzhou Crowds topple police barricades in the street to protest against COVID curbs in Guangzhou, China. Nov. 25 – Urumqi protests Crowds took to the streets at night in Urumqi, chanting "End the lockdown!" Video shows people in China’s Xinjiang protesting against COVID lockdown measures in China Protests against COVID lockdown measures in China's XinjiangIn the capital, Beijing, some 2,700 km (1,678 miles) to the east, some residents under lockdown staged small-scale protests or confronted local officials over movement restrictions.

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