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☆ Red Sea crisis: Why escalating violence in the Middle East isn’t pushing up gas prices
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The prices of a barrel of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, and West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, have barely moved. Now, however, analysts say economic factors — weaker demand in countries such as China and Germany, ample oil and gas supply — are superseding concerns about violence in the Middle East. Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesGlobal oil demand growth is expected to almost halve this year, the International Energy Agency said in a report Thursday. At the same time, global oil supply is forecast to hit an all-time high, driven by record output from countries including the United States and Canada, the IEA said. Nan said relatively modest demand was also helping to prevent spikes in gas prices.

Persons: Brent, “, Homayoun, “ It’s, ”, Hope, Al Drago, That’s, Falakshahi, Xi Nan, Kpler, Wood Mackenzie, Nan Organizations: London CNN, Hamas, West Texas Intermediate, AAA, CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg, Getty, International Energy Agency, Organization of, Petroleum, Rystad Energy, Gas Infrastructure, LNG “ Locations: Red, Iran, Pakistan, Gaza, Ukraine, China, Germany, South Africa, Washington , DC, United States, Canada, Russia, OPEC, Europe, wean, Gas Infrastructure Europe, Africa, Qatar, United Kingdom

A general view of pipelines on the gas storage facility at the gas trading company VNG AG in Bad Lauchstaedt, Germany July 28, 2022. REUTERS/Annegret Hilse Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Europe’s gas inventories continued to accumulate much later than usual into the autumn as exceptionally mild weather delayed the onset of the winter heating season. It was the culmination of an unusually long refill season which has left the region’s storage sites brimming with gas and eliminated fears about supply security. In an average heating year, Frankfurt will experience a total of around 2,161 heating degree days between July 1 and June 30. Related columns:- Europe's record gas stocks start to pressure prices (November 7, 2023)- Europe’s gas stocks at record high going into winter 2023/24 (October 6, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Annegret, John Kemp, Marguerita Choy Organizations: VNG AG, REUTERS, European Union, Britain, Gas Infrastructure, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Bad Lauchstaedt, Germany, Chartbook, Europe, GIE, Ukraine, Northwest Europe, Frankfurt, EU, Russia, Asia

REUTERS/Kacper Pempel/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Europe's record gas inventories continue to climb even higher as a warm start to autumn delays the onset of heating demand while high prices discourage industrial use and encourage continued imports. But prices for gas delivered at the height of winter in January 2024 have started to slide as the record levels of inventory weigh on the market. Chartbook: Europe gas inventories and pricesInventories across the European Union and United Kingdom hit a record 1,146 terawatt-hours (TWh) on Nov. 5, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. At the same time, futures prices and calendar spreads have remained strong, despite record stocks, discouraging resumption of industrial use and encouraging continued imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Related columns:- Europe’s gas stocks at record high going into winter 2023/24 (October 6, 2023)- Europe’s gas storage must peak early this autumn (September 8, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Kacper, Stocks, John Kemp, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, European Union, United, Gas Infrastructure, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Strachocina, Poland, Chartbook, Europe, United Kingdom, Gas Infrastructure Europe, Frankfurt, Germany, Ukraine

Pressure gauges, pipes and valves are pictured at an "Dashava" underground gas storage facility near Striy, Ukraine May 28, 2015. Gas prices remain elevated compared with the years before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Warmer-than-normal temperatures combined with sharp reductions in industrial consumption and high prices to curb gas use by power generators and others left the region with extraordinarily high inventories. Having taken a lot of pain upfront in the form of eye-wateringly high prices during winter of 2022/23, Europe’s gas storage is much better positioned for the winter of 2023/24. Related columns:- Europe’s gas storage must peak early this autumn (September 8, 2023)- Europe's record gas inventories cap prices (August 8, 2023)- Europe’s gas prices stabilise as storage additions slow (June 8, 2023)- Europe only has space for a small gas refill in 2023 (April 14, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Gleb Garanich, Stocks, John Kemp Organizations: REUTERS, European Union, Gas Infrastructure, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Striy, Ukraine, Europe, United Kingdom, Asia

Pipes for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea, which are not used, are seen in the harbour of Mukran, Germany, on September 30, 2022. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline had accounted for 15% of Europe's gas imports in 2021, according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. A second Nord Stream 2 link was planned but never operated. "Our biggest risk was that Russia can manipulate our energy markets," EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson told Reuters. Across the EU, gas storage caverns are now 95% full, Gas Infrastructure Europe data show.

Persons: Pipes, Fabian Bimmer, Kadri Simson, SEB, Ole Hvalbye, Tom Marzec, Wood Mackenzie, Gergely Molnar, Jacob Mandel, Kate Abnett, Julia Payne, Nora Buli, Barbara Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Reuters Graphics, EU Energy, Reuters, EU, SEB Commodities, Gas Infrastructure, International Energy Agency, Aurora Energy Research, Thomson Locations: Baltic, Mukran, Germany, Russia, BRUSSELS, OSLO, Europe, Ukraine, RUSSIA, Norway, United States, Russian, Greece, Poland, Finland, Italy, Netherlands, France, Reuters Graphics Germany, Belgium, Britain, Portugal, Spain, Paris, Brussels, Oslo

☆ Gas markets are becoming 'extremely difficult' to predict. It's a big problem for Europe this winter
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Aerial view of the LNG storage and vaporization vessel "Höegh Esperanza" at the Wilhelmshaven LNG terminal. European gas markets have been constantly fluctuating in recent months, owing to extreme heat, maintenance at gas plants and, most recently, industrial action at major liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Australia. "Gas markets are becoming riskier — gas and LNG prices are increasingly volatile and greatly affected by global factors," Jaller-Makarewicz said. The EU reached its target of filling gas storage facilities to a 90% capacity roughly 2 1/2 months ahead of its Nov. 1 deadline. It means that we've got a pretty good buffer," Malek said, referring to Europe's filling of its gas storage facilities.

Persons: Ana Maria Jaller, seesaw, Makarewicz, Christyan Malek, Malek, CNBC's, we've, Filippo Monteforte Organizations: Getty Images Energy, Workers, LNG, Makarewicz Energy, Institute for Energy Economics, Gas, EU, Gas Infrastructure, International Energy Agency, European Union, Eurasia Group, JPMorgan, Afp, Getty Locations: Wilhelmshaven, Australia, Western Australia, Japan, China, South Korea, Asia, Europe, U.S, skyrocketing, Gas Infrastructure Europe, wean, Ukraine, Eurasia, Tuscany

A pressure gauge and valves are seen at Storengy's natural gas storage site in Saint-Illiers-la-Ville, western France, September 20, 2022. Inventories across the European Union and the United Kingdom had climbed to 1,071 terawatt hours (TWh) by Sep. 6, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, GIE, Sep. 8). The risk of storage space running out has been reduced correspondingly. Nonetheless, it will be critically important for the refill season to end earlier than usual to ensure storage space does not run out. Related columns:- Europe's record gas inventories cap prices (Aug. 8, 2023)- Europe’s gas storage is filling too fast (July 6, 2023)- Europe’s gas prices stabilise as storage additions slow (June 8, 2023)- Europe only has space for a small gas refill in 2023 (April 14, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Christian Hartmann, John Kemp, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, European Union, Gas Infrastructure, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Saint, Ville, France, United Kingdom, GIE, Europe, Russia, Ukraine, Australia

A worker turns a valve at an underground gas storage facility near Striy May 21, 2014. Stocks in the European Union and the United Kingdom had climbed to 998 terawatt-hours (TWh) by Aug. 6, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe ("Aggregated gas storage inventory", GIE, Aug. 8). But because inventories finished the winter of 2022/23 at a record high even a smaller-than-average accumulation has left them at record levels. Chartbook: Europe gas inventories and pricesFutures prices for gas delivered in the summer of 2023 have already fallen sharply to encourage more consumption by industrial users and power generators. Related columns:- High prices keep lid on Europe's industrial gas use (July 11, 2023)- Europe’s gas storage is filling too fast (July 6, 2023)- Europe’s gas prices stabilise as storage additions slow (June 8, 2023)- Europe only has space for a small gas refill in 2023 (April 14, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Gleb Garanich, Stocks, John Kemp, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Gleb Garanich LONDON, European Union, Gas Infrastructure, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Striy, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, Latin America

LONDON, July 6 (Reuters) - Europe’s gas storage is filling more slowly after prices fell sharply in the first half of the year, but a further slowdown will be needed to prevent space running out before the start of winter 2023/24. Gas inventories across the European Union and the United Kingdom amounted to 889 terawatt-hours (TWh) on July 4, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, GIE, July 6). Chartbook: Europe's gas inventories and pricesFront-month futures prices have already fallen by 85% in real terms since August 2022 to encourage more consumption by electricity generators and industrial users as well as re-route liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to Asia. Prices and spreads will continue to come under pressure until storage accumulation slows much further to avoid space becoming full before October. Related columns:- Europe’s gas prices stabilise as storage additions slow (June 8, 2023)- Europe’s gas prices slide on swollen inventories (May 11, 2023)- Europe only has space for a small gas refill in 2023 (April 14, 2023)- Europe’s gas outlook transformed after mild winter (April 13, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Stocks, John Kemp, Emelia Sithole Organizations: European Union, Gas Infrastructure, Thomson, Reuters Locations: United Kingdom, GIE, Asia, Europe

☆ European gas prices jump 50% in June
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Prices reversed course mainly because of longer-than-expected maintenance outages at key gas plants in Norway, analysts told CNN. “The recent price rally shows just how sensitive the European market is to disruption,” said Bill Weatherburn, a commodities economist at Capital Economics. European natural gas prices are still far below their levels last summer, when the continent found itself locked in an energy standoff with Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The field is one of the biggest in the world but now accounts for just a fraction of Europe’s gas supply. “The European gas market — and by extension the global gas market — [is] certainly not out of the woods in terms of adequately matching supply with demand,” Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at ICIS, told CNN.

Persons: ”, Bill Weatherburn, Tom Marzec, ” Massimo Di Odoardo, Wood Mackenzie, ” Henning Gloystein, Di Odoardo Organizations: London CNN, Benchmark, Independent Commodity Intelligence Service, CNN, Capital Economics, European Union, Gas, Gas Infrastructure, Wood, Eurasia Group, Norway “ Locations: Norway, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Europe, Netherlands, Groningen, “, Gas Infrastructure Europe, Japan, South Korea, Asia, Russian

LONDON, June 8 (Reuters) - Europe’s gas storage is refilling much more slowly than usual as the drop in prices encourages more consumption by industrial users and power generators while diverting liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to Asia. The surplus has narrowed from +282 TWh (+80% or +2.41 standard deviations) at the end of the traditional winter drawdown season on March 31 (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, Gas Infrastructure Europe, June 8). Chartbook: Europe gas inventories and pricesInventories have responded to lower prices, with front-month futures prices down by more than 90% from its peak in August 2022. Lower prices in Europe are also diverting more LNG cargoes to price-sensitive customers in South and East Asia for power generation. Related columns:- Europe’s gas prices slide on swollen inventories (May 11, 2023)- Europe only has space for a small gas refill in 2023 (April 14, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: John Kemp, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Union, Gas Infrastructure, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, United Kingdom, Gas Infrastructure Europe, Chartbook, Europe, South, East Asia

LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - Europe needs to put a smaller-than-average volume of gas into storage this year after a mild winter left the region with record high inventories. Chartbook: Europe gas storageThe European Union and the United Kingdom have capacity to store around 1,129 terawatt-hours (TWh) of gas, according to data compiled by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). On April 1, the start of the traditional refill season, storage was 56% full - a record high for the time of year - with inventories of 633 TWh (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, GIE, April 14). DEEPENING CONTANGOPrices and spreads are now moving decisively to limit the amount of gas added to storage this summer. Related column:- Europe’s gas outlook transformed after mild winter (April 13, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Inventories in the European Union and the United Kingdom amounted to 632 terawatt-hours (TWh) on March 31, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (“Aggregated gas storage inventories”, GIE, April 13). Chartbook: Europe gas inventories and pricesRECORD REFILL IN 2022Record end-of-winter inventories are a consequence of a record start-of-winter stock; a mild winter, especially in the first half; and significant cuts in industrial gas use. The European Union and United Kingdom added an unprecedented 788 TWh of gas to storage in 2022 to prepare for a possible interruption of pipeline supplies from Russia. REDUCED CONSUMPTIONEurope’s gas consumption was sharply reduced in winter 2022/23 compared with previous years. Europe emptied around a third of its gas storage space over the whole drawdown period compared with an average of 53% over the previous decade.

Stocks in the European Union and United Kingdom amounted to a seasonal record 685 terawatt hours (TWh) on March 1, and storage was almost 61% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). Storage fill is at record levels and far above the 39% seasonal average for the last decade (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, GIE, March 3). Chartbook: Europe gas stocks and pricesOn average, stocks fall to a post-winter minimum around March 30, with the low occurring at the earliest on March 16 (winter 2011/12) and at the latest on April 19 (winter 2020/21). Related columns:- Europe nears end of winter with bulging gas stocks (February 17, 2023)- Crisis over? Europe’s gas stocks at seasonal record high (January 17, 2023)- Europe's gas prices slump to moderate storage build (January 4, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

European gas prices rallied in the run-up to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine begun almost exactly a year ago and they leapt to record highs when Russia subsequently cut supplies of relatively cheap pipeline gas. Although European prices have eased to around 50 euros ($53) per megawatt hour (MWh) from last August's peak of more than 340 euros, they remain above historic averages. That was even when they had received significant levels of Russian gas on long-term contracts prior to the shut down of the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany in August. Nord Stream's closure drove up European gas prices, as well as liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices, which also hit record levels of around 70 million British thermal units (mmBtu), compared with around $16 now . That could be tricky as the fall in gas prices this year has reduced the incentive to avoid the fuel.

☆ Europe's natural gas prices fall below €50
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

London CNN —Europe’s natural gas prices have tumbled to their lowest level in nearly 18 months in the latest sign the region has avoided a much-feared energy crisis. Benchmark wholesale gas prices fell almost 5% Friday to hit €49 ($52) per megawatt hour, their lowest level since September 2021 and a fraction of the all-time high of €320 hit in August last year, according to data from Independent Commodity Intelligence Service. The plunge in prices will further reduce the risk of a recession in Europe. Gas stores across the European Union were 65% full on Thursday, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, an industry body. The bloc has also boosted imports of pipeline natural gas from Norway, and of liquefied natural gas (LNG) — a chilled, liquid form of gas that can be transported via sea tankers — mostly from the United States and Qatar.

LONDON, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Europe is on course to end the winter with a near-record volume of gas in storage as a result of industrial closures, high prices and a milder-than-normal season. The projected carry out would be the second-highest on record and only just below 609 TWh at the end of winter 2019/20. Chartbook: European gas inventories and pricesRelatively mild temperatures so far this winter have played a part in reducing heating demand and gas consumption. At the same time, high prices continued to maximise the inflow of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe at the expense of importers in China and South Asia. Europe’s gas stocks at seasonal record high (Reuters, January 17, 2023)- Europe's gas prices slump to moderate storage build (Reuters, January 4, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ Europe’s now dealing with an oversupply of natural gas after hoarding it for months before winter
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The benchmark price for natural gas futures has cratered about 28% this year, and it's trading roughly 85% cheaper than record highs reached in August. At that time, natural gas was costing buyers about 10 times more than usual ahead of the winter months. As a key energy supplier to Europe, many feared that Russia would cut off natural gas flows in retaliation to Western sanctions. Europe enjoyed its third hottest January ever last month, meaning people used less heating and thus less natural gas. A former Gazprom official told Reuters this week that all the years of work to build up Russia's natural gas exports have become moot.

Combined gas inventories in the European Union and the United Kingdom were equivalent to 807 terawatt-hours (TWh) on Feb. 1, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. Stocks are projected to deplete to a post-winter low of 606 TWh (with a range from 468 TWh to 705 TWh), slightly down from a projection of 617 TWh (487-733 TWh) on Jan. 22. Chartbook: Europe gas stocks and pricesNorthwest Europe is more than 60% of the way through the heating season so there is increasing visibility about the likely carryout. But overall Europe’s gas inventories remain exceptionally high for the time of year, which has kept a lid on prices and spreads despite the drop in temperatures. Europe’s gas stocks at seasonal record high(Reuters, January 17, 2023)- Europe's gas prices slump to moderate storage build (Reuters, January 4, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Northwest Europe is half-way through the winter heating season and gas inventories are at a record high following an extended period of exceptionally mild temperatures since the middle of December. Market-driven high prices have significantly reduced gas and electricity consumption by major industrial customers and more modestly by residential and commercial users. By Dec. 19, Frankfurt had experienced a total of 675 heating degree days, very close to the long-term average of 682. Between Dec. 19 and Jan. 15, however, the region experienced an exceptional and extended period of much warmer temperatures that reduced heating demand significantly. Cumulative heating demand so far this winter was 20% below the long-term seasonal average by Jan. 15 compared with a 5% deficit by Dec. 19.

☆ Natural gas prices haven’t been this low since Russia went to war
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —Natural gas prices in Europe and the United States have tumbled to levels last seen before Russia sparked a global energy crisis by invading Ukraine. Even so, European gas prices are still historically high, and could rise again this year if demand from China picks up or supplies are disrupted. Wholesale prices were already shooting up in the months before the war as economies reopened from pandemic lockdowns. “It will take a bit [of time] for the fall in the wholesale prices of natural gas to [feed into] into the retail prices,” he said. That will keep Europe at a competitive disadvantage to the United States, where gas prices are about five times lower.

The rapid drawdown in gas inventories for space heating, industrial processes and power generation shows the system functioning as intended. Gas stocks were +56 TWh (+21% or 1.39 standard deviations) above the ten-year seasonal average for 2012-2021. The largest seasonal depletion was -148 TWh (winter 2018/19) while the smallest was just -34 TWh (winter 2014/15). Related columns:- Europe’s gas stocks comfortable despite cold snap (Reuters, December 14)- Europe on course to end winter with plenty of gas (Reuters, November 28)- Europe’s gas storage peaks after record refill season (Reuters, November 18)- Mission accomplished? Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule (Reuters, October 4)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

LONDON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Europe’s gas inventories remain comfortable despite much colder-than-normal temperatures across the northern part of the region which have boosted heating demand significantly since the start of December. Inventories in the European Union and United Kingdom (EU28) totalled 987 terawatt-hours (TWh) on December 12, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, GIE, December 14). Chartbook: Europe gas inventoriesExceptionally high prices coupled with conservation measures enacted following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have significantly changed consumption patterns. Related columns:- Europe on course to end winter with plenty of gas (Reuters, Nov. 28)- Europe’s gas storage peaks after record refill season (Reuters, Nov. 18)- Europe’s gas prices retreat as storage almost full (Reuters, Oct. 13)- Mission accomplished? Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule (Reuters, Oct. 4)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ Europe’s energy grids face first major winter stress test as Arctic blast takes hold
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON — Temperatures in Northern Europe are expected to fall sharply over the coming days as cold air blows in from the Arctic, posing the first major winter test of the region's energy grids. The projected cold snap is thought to represent a significant stress test for Europe's fragile energy market systems. The latest data from industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe shows the EU's gas storage is estimated to be roughly 90% full. Energy analysts told CNBC that while Europe's gas storage levels were in a relatively strong position for winter, southern Germany may be "particularly vulnerable" to freezing temperatures partly due to nuclear outages in France. The U.K. could face problems early next year too if energy exports from the EU fall.

LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Europe's gas inventories are on course to end the winter of 2022/23 at one of the highest levels on record - if prices stay high and provided pipeline deliveries from Russia continue. Exceptionally high prices, energy conservation, and warmer-than-normal temperatures since the middle of October have combined to cut consumption and attract large volumes of imported LNG. Depletions have ranged from as much as -712 TWh in the winter of 2018/19 to as little as -311 TWh in the winter of 2014/15. Related columns:- Europe's gas storage peaks after record refill season (Reuters, Nov. 18)- Europe's gas prices retreat as storage almost full (Reuters, Oct. 13)- Mission accomplished? Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule (Reuters, Oct. 4)- Europe tops up gas stocks, but winter demand cuts essential (Reuters, Sept. 7)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

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