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The narrative from Silicon Valley is that the AI train has left the station and any smart investor had better hop on before these products become “superintelligent” and start solving all the world’s problems. Now, some of the leading language models appear to be hitting a wall, according to at least three reports last week. But if we have indeed hit a scaling wall, “it may mean that the the mega-cap technology companies have over-invested” and it’s possible that they could scale back in the near future. That’s the AI optimist/pragmatist view. For a less rosy outlook, I turned to Gary Marcus, NYU professor emeritus and outspoken critic of AI hype.
Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN — It’s, OpenAI, , that’s, , Orion “, Ilya Sutskever, ” Sutskever, Marc Andreessen, Sam Altman, ” Gil Luria, Davidson, it’s, ” Luria, Gary Marcus, ” Marcus, “ LLMs Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Nvidia, Tech, ” Bloomberg, ” Reuters Locations: New York, GPT
Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt says there's "no evidence" of an AI slowdown. AdvertisementEric Schmidt says there's "no evidence" artificial intelligence scaling laws are stopping as some in Silicon Valley worry about an AI slowdown. He said there will be "two or three more turns of the crank of these large models" over the next five years, referring to improvements in large language models. Related Video Why "deployment of AI is top of mind for everybody," according to IBM's Jonathan Adashek"There's no evidence that the scaling laws, as they're called, have begun to stop. AI scaling laws are the theoretical rules that broadly state models will continue to improve with more training data and greater computing power.
Persons: Eric Schmidt, Schmidt, LLMs, , IBM's Jonathan Adashek, we're, OpenAI's, OpenAI, Claude, Gary Marcus, Sam Altman, Anthropic Organizations: Google, Service, Bloomberg, New York University, OpenAI, Business Locations: Silicon
Inside Microsoft's struggles with Copilot
  + stars: | 2024-11-15 | by ( Ashley Stewart | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +23 min
In September 2023, Microsoft's famously soft-spoken CEO, Satya Nadella, unveiled the company's flagship AI product, Copilot, with sweeping fanfare. Some of Microsoft's own employees and executives are privately concerned that Copilot won't be able to deliver on its ambitions. Copilot's struggles have created an opening for Microsoft's rivals, some of whom have seized on the opportunity to promote their own agendas. "Now, when Joe Blow logs into an account and kicks off Copilot, they can see everything," said one Microsoft employee familiar with customer complaints. As complaints and questions over Copilot mount, so does the pressure to justify Microsoft's unprecedented level of spending on AI.
Persons: Microsoft's, Satya Nadella, Gartner, Copilot, it'll, Copilot's, Marc Benioff, Benioff, Goldman Sachs, Marc Andreessen, Andreessen Horowitz, Ethan Miller, Jared Spataro, Spataro, , Joe Blow, Joe, Nadella, Gary Marcus, Marcus, Wile, Coyote, Brontë, Judson Althoff, Jason Zander, Zander, We've, OpenAI, Tasos Katopodis, Steve Jobs Organizations: Microsoft, Venture, Getty, Goldman, BI, Fortune, Excel, Lumen Technologies, Honeywell, Gartner, Wall Street, Initiative, Department of Homeland Security, Employees, San Francisco, Software, Apple, Jobs Locations: Microsoft's, Copilot, New York City
It reignites a debate about the feasibility of developing increasingly advanced models and AI scaling laws — the theoretical rules about how the models improve. It remains to be seen how smart an AI model can get when it has that much capital thrown at it. There could also be strategies to make AI models smarter by enhancing the inference portion of development. The model OpenAI released in September — called OpenAI o1 — focused more on inference improvements. Still, it's clear that, like Altman, much of the industry remains firm in its conviction that scaling laws are the driver of AI performance.
Persons: OpenAI's, It's, , Sam Altman, Fabrice Beaulieu, Altman, OpenAI, Andrew Caballero, Reynolds, Ion Stoica, Gary Marcus, Anthropic, Marcus, Claude, Ilya Sutskever, Dario Amodei, Kevin Scott, we're, Scott, they've Organizations: Service, OpenAI's, Orion, Business, Getty, Companies, New York University, Reuters, Sequoia, o1 Locations: GPT, Silicon Valley, AFP
AI expert Gary Marcus says OpenAI may be forced to become a surveillance company to make money. AI expert Gary Marcus says the company shaping the global AI arms race is on the cusp of turning what Orwell imagined into reality. "What they're going to be pressed to do is become a surveillance company." But Marcus thinks the company won't be able to earn enough money to support its valuation that way because the technology isn't advanced enough. Marcus suspects that OpenAI will eventually tap into this potential income stream and become a powerful surveillance company.
Persons: Gary Marcus, OpenAI, , George Orwell's, Orwell, Peter Norvig, Marcus, Paul Nakasone, Edward Snowden, Snowden, Sam Altman, Altman, he's Organizations: Service, Google, Stanford's, Capitol, Business Locations: that's
There are signs across AI models, chips, and new form factors that the market is getting frothy. Investors spent the summer wondering if top AI stocks could continue to justify soaring valuations in the face of absent returns from their massive AI spending. Now, signs have emerged that they're not yet done with generative AI mania. OpenAI reaches dizzying new heightsSam Altman's OpenAI secured a $157 billion valuation after raising $6.6 billion in its latest funding round. In short, a lossmaking startup must justify its $157 billion valuation.
Persons: Cerebras, , Andrew Feldman, Ramsey Cardy Cerebras, here's, Abu, Cerebras —, Altman's OpenAI, OpenAI, Elon Musk's xAI, OpenAI's, Ilya Sutskever, Gary Marcus, OpenAI's Sam Altman, David Sacks, Darius Rafieyan, Mira Murati, Mark Zuckerberg, Andrej Sokolow, frothiness, Jensen Huang, Alex Heath, Rahul Prasad, Snapchat Organizations: Nvidia, Service, Investors, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco, Bloomberg, OpenAI, LLMs, Financial Times, Anthropic, Craft Ventures, Tiger Global, The New York Times, Getty, company's Connect, Meta, Orion Locations: Sunnyvale, Abu Dhabi, Silver, Saudi, Silicon Valley,
OpenAI bleeds C-suite executivesAs OpenAI chases a massive fundraising round, the startup continues to deal with a staff exodus. The nonprofit side of OpenAI will still exist and have a minority stake in the for-profit company, the sources told Reuters. "Given the ambitions of OpenAI, a non-profit structure has been too constraining. AdvertisementThe debate over whether OpenAI should be a for-profit company has been a bone of contention for one very vocal tech industry bigwig — Elon Musk. Park, the corporate law expert, told BI that the for-profit governance structure could also leave OpenAI vulnerable to greater government scrutiny.
Persons: , OpenAI, Mira Murati, Sam Altman's, Murati, Barret Zoph, Bob McGrew, Altman, Greg Brockman, Wojciech Zaremba, Brockman, Ilya Sutskever, John Schulman, Peter Deng, Sutskever, James, I'd, Slack, Gene Munster, She's, Mira, — Elon, Musk, Gary Marcus, Marcus, Musk's, Mark Zuckerberg, xAI, Sam Altman, Munster Organizations: Service, Technology, Business, Microsoft, Nvidia, Wired, University of California, OpenAI, Bloomberg, Deepwater Asset Management, Reuters, Intelligence, Guardian, Meta Locations: It's, OpenAI, Los Angeles
It's been a wild 24 hours at OpenAI. Meanwhile, CEO Sam Altman said Thursday the exec departures were unrelated to restructuring talks. AdvertisementIt's been a wild 24 hours at OpenAI, with three high-level execs leaving the company — including CTO Mira Murati — and reports it's restructuring as a for-profit benefit corporation. Speaking at Italian Tech Week Thursday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the executive departures and restructuring talks were unrelated. "I obviously won't pretend it's natural for this one to be so abrupt, but we are not a normal company," he wrote.
Persons: It's, Sam Altman, , Mira Murati —, Sam Altman's, execs, Altman, Elon Musk, Gary Marcus —, Altman —, Sora hasn't, Marcus, Nicolas Miailhe, Miailhe, I've, it's, Mark Chen, Bob McGrew Organizations: Service, Italian Tech, OpenAI, Bloomberg, Reuters, Geometric Intelligence, Future Society Locations:
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is defending the role of artificial intelligence — particularly in the workplace — like it's his job. AI can help people boost their productivity right now, Nadella said during a virtual appearance at the Fast Company Innovation Festival 2024 last week. Longer-term, it could help take on roles, even involving decision-making, across "healthcare or in finance or any other domain," he said. All that money has yet to yield a tool that actually helps most businesses earn more revenue, the Goldman Sachs report said. Plus, sign up for CNBC Make It's newsletter to get tips and tricks for success at work, with money and in life.
Persons: Satya Nadella, Nadella, Microsoft's, , Goldman Sachs, Jim Covello, Gary Marcus, CNBC's, Marcus, you'll Organizations: Fast, Microsoft, New York University, Workforce, CNBC
The new model can work through complex tasks and, in comparison to previous models, solve more difficult problems in science, coding, and math. AdvertisementFor example, it beat GPT-4o — a multimodal model OpenAI unveiled in May — in the qualifying exam for the International Mathematics Olympiad by a long shot. Over the summer, while o1 was still in development, the company unveiled a new five-level classification system for tracking its progress toward that goal. But when Mollick asked o1 to solve a crossword puzzle, it thought about it for a "full 108 seconds" before responding. AdvertisementSince OpenAI unveiled GPT-4 last year, it's been releasing successive iterations in its quest to invent AGI.
Persons: , OpenAI, Ethan Mollick, Mollick, Gary Marcus, it's Organizations: Service, Business, o1, International, Company, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, New York University Locations: , AGI, GPT
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has argued that AI models should eventually produce synthetic data good enough to train themselves effectively. As the well of usable human-generated data dries up, more companies look into using synthetic data. Rather than being pulled from the real world, synthetic data is generated by AI systems that have been trained on real-world data. Synthetic data may help offer some effective "countertuning" to the biases produced by real-world data, too. 'Habsburg AI'While the AI industry found some advantages in synthetic data, it faces serious issues it can't afford to ignore, such as fears synthetic data can wreck AI models.
Persons: , that's, Sam Altman, Gary Marcus, It's, Nathan Lambert, Gretel, SynthLabs, Meta, Timnit Gebru, Margaret Mitchell, LLMs, Sadowski, Alexandr Wang, AlphaGeometry, Marcus Organizations: Service, Google, Business, Oxford, Gartner, New York University, Allen Institute, AI, Nvidia, Meta's, Anadolu, Getty, Rush, Microsoft, Monash University Locations: Cambridge, Habsburg
Gary Marcus, founder of Geometric Intelligence, testified before the Senate with Sam Altman in 2023. Once hopeful of Altman, Marcus now says that the OpenAI CEO can't be trusted. The AI expert also wrote in The Guardian that we're on the wrong path to AI. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . But a leading AI expert says the CEO's actions contradict his public pronouncements, and the current path to AI is headed in the wrong direction.
Persons: Gary Marcus, Sam Altman, Altman, Marcus, Organizations: Geometric Intelligence, Guardian, Service, Intelligence, Business Locations: OpenAI
It also exposes the fragility of those systems and raises the question: Does Big Tech deserve our trust to properly safeguard a technology as powerful as AI? He said Big Tech companies evaluate systems based on if they work "pretty well most of the time," because there's a rush to get products to market. He said big tech companies should have alternative vendors and a multi-layered defense strategy. Big Tech companies, including Facebook, Amazon, and Google, saw the sharpest drop in trust, with an average decline in confidence ratings of 13% to 18%, according to Brookings. Big Tech companies have had "free rein," Patnaik said.
Persons: , CrowdStrike, Gary Marcus, Marcus, John Schulman, Dan O'Dowd, there's, Javad Abed, Johns Hopkins, Abed, Sanjay Patnaik, Patnaik Organizations: Service, Big Tech, Tech, Business, Microsoft, Geometric Intelligence, Uber, Tesla's, BI, Companies, Google, Adobe, US Department of State, Johns, Carey Business School, Brookings Institution, Facebook Locations: Brookings
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're 'at least a decade away' from solving AI, says NYU Professor Gary MarcusGary Marcus, New York University professor emeritus, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss artificial intelligence implications, the future of generative AI, investor decisions, and more.
Persons: Gary Marcus Gary Marcus Organizations: New York University
Mark Zuckerberg just dropped Meta's new AI models. Bt what Llama 3 does not do is beat OpenAI's GPT-4. AdvertisementPerhaps the most important detail was that Meta's open-source models will soon be on par with their closed-source counterparts. For open-source AI developers, that'll be a huge deal. The AI models they were working on looked pretty rudimentary as recently as last year as they struggled to complete sentences without repeating themselves.
Persons: Mark Zuckerberg, OpenAI's GPT, , Meta, Nick Clegg, Claude, OpenAI's, that'll, Sharon Zhou, Sam Altman's, Sam Altman, Justin Sullivan, Google's, That's, Jim Fan, Altman, Zuckerberg, Gary Marcus Organizations: Service, Financial, Google, GPT, Nvidia, Facebook, New York University
Gary Marcus, the founder and CEO of Geometric Intelligence, a machine learning AI startup acquired by Uber in 2016, doesn't agree with Musk's AI predictions. AdvertisementDear @elonmusk,$1 million says your latest prediction – that AI will be smarter than any individual human by the end of 2025 – is wrong. "We should want the world to find better, more trustworthy ways to build AI," Marcus said. "I was actually quite supportive of Musk," Marcus said. Marcus told BI he believes AI could help humanity, but he's much less optimistic about AI being trustworthy in the near future.
Persons: , Elon, Musk, Nicolai Tangen, he's, Gary Marcus, doesn't, Gary P.S, @GaryMarcus, Damion Hankejh, Hankejh, Marcus, Musk hasn't, it's, hasn't, Musk's, AGI, they're, He's, there's, OpenAi Organizations: Service, Norges Bank, Business, Geometric Intelligence, Uber, Investor
Read previewSome AI leaders are starting to ask themselves the question: should we be buying the hype? Almost a year and a half on from the launch of ChatGPT, the hype around the technology is seemingly everywhere. AI image generator Stability AI also lost its chief, Emad Mostaque, amid reports of financial pressure. Others though, like Google deep learning expert François Chollet, are keen to stress just how far off human intelligence today's AI models actually are. Until some real signs of money-making, human-level intelligence do emerge, expect more to call it all hype.
Persons: , Bill Gates, Elon Musk, it's, Gary Marcus, Sam Altman, Marcus, GmjUDKhc6k — Gary Marcus, @GaryMarcus, Mustafa Suleyman, Emad Mostaque, Eric Schmidt, Demis Hassabis, Musk, François Organizations: Service, Business, Google, Invest, Investors, New York University, Nvidia, NVidia, Blackwell, Microsoft, Financial Locations: OpenAI, Sequoia
Users started to wonder if the OpenAI's chatbot was malfunctioning after it spouted "Spanglish." download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Muchas gracias for your understanding, y I’ll ensure we’re being as crystal clear como l’eau from now on,” ChatGPT wrote. chatgpt is apparently going off the rails right now and no one can explain why pic.twitter.com/0XSSsTfLzP — sean mcguire (@seanw_m) February 21, 2024Another user asked ChatGPT about the difference between mattresses in different Asian countries. Its status dashboard first noted it was “investigating reports of unexpected responses from ChatGPT” on February 20.
Persons: , OpenAI’s, Sean McGuire, , ” ChatGPT, Bill Evans, 0XSSsTfLzP — sean mcguire, ChatGPT, hasn’t, ” OpenAI, ChatGPT ”, It's, OpenAI, Gary Marcus, — Gary Marcus, @GaryMarcus, Marcus Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Business Locations: GPT
It Generated a Copyrighted Image. image generator, to create an image of Joaquin Phoenix from “The Joker.” In seconds, the system made an image nearly identical to a frame from the 2019 film. Reid Southen Create an image of Joaquin Phoenix Joker movie, 2019, screenshot from a movie, movie scene Midjourney’s response Generated by A.I. Mr. Southen Create an image of Dune movie screencap, 2021, Dune movie trailer Midjourney’s response Generated by A.I. Mr. Southen Create an image of “The Last of Us 2,” Ellie with guitar in front of tree Midjourney’s response Generated by A.I.
Persons: Reid Southen, Midjourney, Joaquin Phoenix, , Southen’s, “ Joaquin Phoenix, Sega’s, Woody, watchdogs, Sarah Silverman, John Grisham, OpenAI, Southen, Keith Kupferschmid, Kupferschmid, Ellie, Gary Marcus, “ Marcus, ChatGPT, SpongeBob, chatbot, Kathryn Conrad, Marcus, Microsoft Bing, Mario, Conrad Organizations: Warner Bros, Marvel, The New York Times, Times, Microsoft, Copyright Alliance, New York University, Viacom, University of Kansas, Nintendo Locations: Michigan, A.I, Italian
Claudine Gay is out as the president of Harvard. Gay announced Tuesday in a letter that she was stepping down, and reactions have poured in on social media from both her supporters and critics. AdvertisementElon Musk voiced his agreement with a social media user's post that said Gay had been "caught plagiarizing." I admire Claudine Gay for putting Harvard's interests first at what I know must be an agonizingly difficult moment. AdvertisementNot everyone celebrated Gay's resignation.
Persons: Claudine Gay, Gay, , Larry Summers, Gay's, Elon Musk, Emil Michael, Uber's, Alan Garber, — Lawrence H, Summers, Bill Ackman, Ackman, hasn't, Sally Kornbluth, Elizabeth Magill, it’s, 3yUDw6tciF — Emil Michael, @emilmichael, Christopher Rufo, Rufo, Elon, Jason Calacanis, Timnit Gebru, Couldn't, Gebru, Nikole Hannah Jones, Janai Nelson, Liz Magill's, Gary Marcus, Uber, Marcus Organizations: Harvard, Service, Treasury, Twitter, Billionaire, Gay, Former University of Pennsylvania, Harvard Corporation, Conservative, Google, NAACP Legal Defense, Educational Fund
A mysterious new OpenAI model known as Q* has got the tech world talking. AI experts say the model could be a big step forward but is unlikely to end the world anytime soon. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAs the dust settles on the chaos at OpenAI, we still don't know why CEO Sam Altman was fired — but reports have suggested it could be linked to a mysterious AI model. Dr Andrew Rogoyski, a director at the Surrey Institute for People-Centered AI, told BI that solving unseen problems was a key step towards creating AGI.
Persons: , Sam Altman, OpenAI, Ilya Sutskever, Charles Higgins, Sophia Kalanovska, Kalanovska, we've, Andrew Rogoyski, Gary Marcus, Marcus Organizations: Service, Reuters, Surrey Institute for People, AIs, Business Locations: OpenAI
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, attends the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in San Francisco, California, U.S. November 16, 2023. In recent weeks, talks have hit stumbling blocks over the extent to which companies should be allowed to self-regulate. Alexandra van Huffelen, Dutch minister for digitalisation, told Reuters the OpenAI saga underscored the need for strict rules. "Please don't gut the EU AI Act; we need it now more than ever." Reporting by Martin Coulter and Supantha Mukherjee; Editing by Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Sam Altman, Carlos Barria, Altman, OpenAI’s, Brando Benifei, , Alexandra van Huffelen, Gary Marcus, Martin Coulter, Supantha Mukherjee, Susan Fenton Organizations: Economic Cooperation, REUTERS, European Commission, EU, Reuters, Microsoft, New York University, Thomson Locations: Asia, San Francisco , California, U.S, European, OpenAI, France, Germany, Italy
The wildest coup in Silicon Valley's history just took place over the last 48 hours. OpenAI booted CEO Sam Altman, nearly hired him back, then went with 2 other CEOs. Sam Altman has now been scooped up as an employee by Microsoft, OpenAI's biggest investor. Sam Altman had met with world leaders, including British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, in London earlier in the month. But Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has not let a good crisis go to waste.
Persons: OpenAI, Sam Altman, Altman, , Mira Murati, Emmett Shear, Greg Brockman, — Aaron Levie, ❤️ emojis, AngelList, Babak Nivi, OpenAI's, Rishi Sunak, Kamala Harris, Ursula von der Leyen, Alastair Grant, Ilya Sutskever, Adam D'Angelo, Tasha McCauley, Helen Toner, Mary, Gary Marcus, Sam, 👉, Gary, Satya Nad Organizations: Microsoft, Service, British, AI, Georgetown's Center for Security, Emerging Technology, usl Locations: London
Generative AI still mostly experimental, say executives
  + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Katie Paul | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - One year after the debut of ChatGPT created a global sensation, leaders of business, government and civil society said at the Reuters NEXT conference in New York that generative AI technology is still mostly in an experimental stage, with limited exceptions. Aguirre cited self-driving cars as an example of a technology struggling to make the transition to full deployment. “I’ve observed many generative AI applications that are in production while other customers are just beginning their journey.”One way generative AI was already being deployed widely, highlighted by speakers across industries, was to write computer code. Gary Marcus, a professor at New York University, said generative AI was error-prone in coding just like in other areas, but that the problem was less of a hindrance in the tech sector because programmers knew how to troubleshoot it. Companies should move slowly and deliberately when integrating the technology into uses where accuracy matters, executives emphasized.
Persons: ChatGPT, What's, Anthony Aguirre, Aguirre, Sherry Marcus, I’ve, Lili Cheng, Copilot, Cheng, Gary Marcus, Marcus, Cisco's Vijoy Pandey, Pandey, Katie Paul, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Reuters NEXT, Life Institute, Microsoft Corporate, Reuters, New York University, Thomson Locations: New York
[1/2] Artificial Intelligence words are seen in this illustration taken March 31, 2023. Companies are increasingly using AI to make decisions including about pricing, which could lead to discriminatory outcomes, experts warned at the conference. “We should not underestimate how powerful these models are now and how rapidly they are going to get more powerful,” he said. Developing ever-more powerful AI will also risk eliminating jobs to a point where it may be impossible for humans to simply learn new skills and enter other industries. “Once that happens, I fear that it's not going to be so easy to go back to AI being a tool and AI as something that empowers people.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, ” Gary Marcus, Marcus, Marta Tellado, Anthony Aguirre, , , Anna Tong, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters NEXT, New York University, Companies, Consumer, Life Institute, Reuters, reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, San Francisco
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