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☆ The Fed slashed interest rates last week, but Treasury yields are rising. What’s going on?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +6 min

The Treasury market, though, hasn’t been paying attention. Officials penciled in another 50 basis points in reductions by the end of the year and another 100 by the end of 2025. That sentiment is evident in the “breakeven” inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. Taken together, the various dynamics in the Treasury market are making it a difficult time for investors.

Persons: hasn’t, ”, Jonathan Duensing, — haven’t, “, Robert Tipp, We’re, Jerome, Powell, ” Duensing, Tom Garretson, “ They’d, There’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation, RBC Wealth Management

☆ Inflation ticked up in July, pausing a year of slowing price growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Inflation as measured by the CPI was expected to accelerate, with a year-over-year CPI forecast of 3.3% for July after June's 12-month change of 3.0%. Inflation had been cooling for 12 straight months before the latest CPI release. That increase is around the forecast, a year-over-year increase of 4.8%. The food index surged 4.9% year over year in July. "Despite elevated inflation, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets."

Persons: That's, Tom Garretson, Garretson, Greg McBride, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, RBC Wealth Management, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Here's everything you need to look for in Friday's July jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The prime-age participation rate, for one, focuses on the 25-to-54 age group cohort. watch now"The durability of this labor market largely comes because we simply don't have the people," said Rachel Sederberg, senior economist for job analytics firm Lightcast. They don't even come close to the Baby Boomers who have left the labor market." Those measures include job data from alternative sources, the job openings count from the Labor Department, and the firm's own employer surveys. The trick, said Lightcast economist Sederberg, is for the labor market to be cooling but not crashing.

Persons: Jeff Greenberg, Jeffrey Roach, Roach, —, Covid, Rachel Sederberg, We've, X, Tom Garretson, Garretson, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Spencer Hill, Hill, Sederberg, we've Organizations: Miami, Universal, Getty, Federal Reserve, LPL, Baby Boomers, RBC Wealth Management, RBC, Labor Department Locations: Miami Beach , Florida, Normandy Isle, 7ty, U.S

☆ Global manufacturing is sputtering
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-11 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

S&P Global data showed that the US manufacturing sector fell into contraction territory in May. Business conditions in China’s manufacturing industry, the largest in the world, improved in May, according to the Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. Globally, manufacturers’ optimism fell to its lowest level since December, according to the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The possibility of China reinvigorating global economic growth is slipping. That could eventually lead to global manufacturers trimming their workforces if demand for goods continues to weaken and their backlogs shrink further.

Persons: ”, Ariane Curtis, “ We’ve, Tom Garretson, Jerome Powell, hasn’t, won’t bode, Liu Young, Monish Patolawala Organizations: DC CNN — Manufacturers, Factories, P, Institute for Supply Management, Commerce Department, JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI, Capital Economics, International Monetary Fund, RBC Wealth Management, Credit Suisse, UBS, The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Fed, Apple, 3M, National Association of Manufacturers Locations: Washington, United States, Ireland, China, Europe, Germany, Europe’s

☆ Equities choppy while Treasury yields, dollar retreat in choppy trading after Fed hikes rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The updated language in the policy statement does suggest the bar is going to be quite high for further rate hikes. The dollar, which was down ahead of the Fed's statement, deepened its losses in volatile trading on the prospect of a rate hiking pause. U.S. Treasury yields edged lower after the Fed's signal that it could keep rates unchanged at the next few meetings. Benchmark 10-year note yields were down 3.6 basis points to 3.403%, from 3.439% late on Tuesday. The 30-year bond yield was last down 1.9 basis points to 3.7128% while the 2-year note yield was last was down 3.9 basis points to 3.9407%, from 3.98%.

☆ Instant View: Fed hikes another 25 basis points, hints it may be the last increase
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

TOM GARRETSON, STRATEGIST, RBC PORTFOLIO ADVISORY GROUP, MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA"It was a pretty dovish rate hike today. The expectations were that it might be a bit more of a hawkish rate hike in terms of leaving the door open to further hikes if needed." "The updated language in the policy statement does suggest the bar is going to be quite high for further rate hikes. … The market is hoping or expecting the Fed to pause after this rate hike. From a consumer credit perspective, the impact of further rate hikes will likely continue to be felt by borrowers across a range of industries.

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