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☆ Why you shouldn't worry about the job market and a recession just yet
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewThe labor market is trending in the wrong direction, but it might not be time to sound the alarm just yet. The unemployment rate has risen for four consecutive months and at 4.3%, it's the highest it's been in nearly three years. However, there are some reasons it might be too soon to freak out about the labor market. AdvertisementSatyam Panday, chief US economist for S&P Global Ratings, said in a note published on August 6 that the slowing labor market appears to suggest a "normalization" of a previously red-hot labor market, rather than an "economy that's about to slip into a recession." The labor market might get worseTo be sure, there are plenty of reasons to remain concerned about the state of the labor market.

Persons: —, there's, it's, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Manuel Abecasis, they've, It's, Goldman Sachs that's, Satyam Panday, Michael Gapen, JP Morgan, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Federal, Satyam, Bank of America, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, New Century Advisors Locations: US

☆ Markets are counting on the Fed to head off recession with sizeable interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +5 min

Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America. Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. Why wait?”LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Steven Blitz, ”, Andrew Hollenhorst, ‘, ’ ”, Michael Gapen, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, “, “ They’ll, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Fed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Nikko

☆ 3 reasons to worry about July’s weak jobs report — and 1 reason not to panic
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The Federal Reserve now has egg on its face after it kept interest rates near a quarter-century high earlier this week. By now, there’s ample evidence that the job market, a key driver of the US economy, has lost steam. Here are three reasons to be worried about July’s shockingly weak jobs report — and one silver lining. Consumer demand itself also hasn’t weakened just yet, despite the highest interest rates in more than two decades. Generally, the Fed makes its decision congruent with what’s going on with inflation or the job market.

Persons: , July’s, ’, ”, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Elizabeth Crofoot, Alicia Wallace, Jerome Powell, ” Crofoot, ” Michael Gapen, Matt Egan, weren’t, ” Truist’s Keith Lerner, they’ll, hasn’t, ” Chris Rupkey, Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Investors, Labor, Citigroup, JPMorgan Locations: New York, decelerate, American

☆ Should you sell your house now? The pandemic-driven boost to prices should last until at least 2026, according to Bank of America.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-07 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Housing prices around the country have been rising at a dizzying pace since the pandemic, increasing 6% on average in just the last year. With these rapid increases, homeowners can command a pretty penny in today's red-hot housing market. But according to Bank of America, there's still room for prices to go higher. AdvertisementBank of AmericaAlthough the Fed is expected to cut rates later this year, Bank of America doesn't foresee mortgage rates falling much in the near future. Prices could increase beyond 2026In this market, homeowners can take advantage of at least two more years of price appreciation.

Persons: —, there's, Michael Gapen, Gapen doesn't, Gapen, Millennials Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, National Association of Realtors

☆ Stocks surged during the first half of 2024. What’s next?
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Much of the S&P 500’s gains were concentrated in the Magnificent Seven big tech names, while other stocks lagged behind. Coming into this year, Wall Street projected that the Fed would ease rates as many as six times in 2024. What could be in store for the stock market during the second half of 2024? “I feel very, very good about the values of my three children, and I have 100% trust in how they will carry things out,” Buffett told the Journal. Previously, Buffett had said his will stated that more than 99% of his estate was earmarked for philanthropic usage to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the four charities connected to his family: the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, Sherwood Foundation, Howard G. Buffett Foundation and NoVo Foundation.

Persons: there’s, Bell, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, you’ve, It’s, we’re, it’s, I’d, That’s, Warren Buffett, Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Melinda Gates, ” Buffett, Susan Thompson Buffett, Howard G, Read, Matt Egan, unstuck, —, Michael Gapen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, Wall, Fed, Berkshire, Wall Street, Melinda Gates Foundation, Gates, Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, Sherwood Foundation, Buffett Foundation, NoVo Foundation, Gates Foundation, Bank of America, CNN Locations: New York, America

☆ The Fed needs more time to determine appropriate rate path, says BofA's Michael Gapen
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed needs more time to determine appropriate rate path, says BofA's Michael GapenPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO; Diane Swonk, KPMG chief economist; Michael Gapen, Bank of America Securities head of U.S. Economics; and CNBC’s Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the latest economic data.

Persons: BofA's Michael Gapen Peter Boockvar, Diane Swonk, Michael Gapen, Steve Liesman Organizations: Bleakley Financial, KPMG, Bank of America Securities, Economics

☆ The housing market is ‘stuck’ until at least 2026, Bank of America warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Economists at Bank of America warned this week that the US housing market is “stuck and we are not convinced it will become unstuck” until 2026 — or later. And mortgage rates may not fall much — even if the Federal Reserve finally delivers long-delayed interest rate cuts. There isn’t a magic fix,” Michael Gapen, head of US economics at Bank of America, told CNN in a phone interview. However, Bank of America expects housing starts — which is a measure of newly constructed homes — to remain flat for the coming years. Divide between haves and have-notsThe forecast for a “stuck” housing market cuts both ways.

Persons: unstuck, —, Michael Gapen, “ It’s, ”, ‘, Dave Liniger, ” Liniger, Liniger, “ Don’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, CNN, ”, ” Bank of America, Gallup Locations: New York, America

☆ Housing market to remain 'stuck' until at least 2026, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The housing market is unlikely to recover for several years and affordability won't get any better unless a recession hits, according to Bank of America economists. "The US housing market is stuck, and we are not convinced it will become unstuck anytime soon," Bank of America economist Michael Gapen and others said in a Monday note. In some respects, the housing market is a victim of its own success: Buyers swarmed in after Covid hit, taking advantage of mortgage rates around 3% and even less. Bank of America does expect some moderation in regard to prices, but again not for a few years. As things stand, the NAR's housing affordability index , after rising earlier this year, tumbled in May to its lowest level since November 2023.

Persons: Michael Gapen, Gapen, Covid Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, NAR

☆ Housing inflation will need to come down before the Fed can think about cutting rates, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With shelter inflation "sticky" at a 5.4% year over level, Gapen said it could be months before "greater confidence" is achieved. "We think the Fed is unlikely to achieve the confidence it needs to begin rate cuts until shelter inflation takes a step lower," he said. Monthly housing inflation readings in the PCE measure have been running at either 0.5% or 0.4% since March 2023. We don't target housing prices, for example," Powell said. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, a nonvoter on the FOMC this year, on Tuesday singled out the "long-term stubbornness of shelter inflation."

Persons: Michael Gapen, Gapen, Jerome Powell, Powell, Patrick Harker Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Commerce, Philadelphia Fed

☆ The Fed probably won't be delivering any interest rate cuts this summer
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesInvestors likely will have to sweat out a summer during which it looks increasingly improbable that the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates. A batch of stronger-than-expected economic data coupled with fresh commentary from policymakers is pointing away from any near-term policy easing. "The market takes every bit of data and translates it to how the Fed sees it. So if the Fed is data dependent, the market is probably more data dependent." Put it together, and there's not much reason for the Fed to be easing policy here.

Persons: Michael M, Quincy Krosby, Christopher Waller, there's, Michael Gapen, BofA, Gapen Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, LPL, Fed, Bank of America Locations: New York City

☆ CPI takes risk of rate hikes off the table but doesn't bring cuts any closer: BofA's Michael Gapen
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCPI takes risk of rate hikes off the table but doesn't bring cuts any closer: BofA's Michael GapenMichael Gapen, Bank of America head of U.S. economics; John Porter, Newton Investment Management CIO and head of equities; and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss April's CPI report, macro outlooks, and more.

Persons: BofA's Michael Gapen Michael Gapen, John Porter, Steve Liesman Organizations: CPI, Bank of America, Newton Investment Management

☆ Wall Street is confused and divided over how many times the Fed will cut rates this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street reacted Thursday to this week's Fed meeting, with forecasts scattered across a range of outcomes for where monetary policy heads next. Most economists for the biggest forecasting firms expect the central bank to lower benchmark interest rates sometime later this year. Goldman left in place its call for two rate cuts this year of a quarter percentage point each, with one in July and the other in November. "If inflation comes in stronger than in our baseline, we would expect the first rate cut to be postponed to December," he wrote. For 2025, we continue to expect four rate cuts."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Powell, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Marc Giannoni, Michael Gapen, Michael Bloom Organizations: Fed, Futures, Group, Citigroup, Barclays, Bank of America

☆ U.S. Growth Slowed in First Quarter, but Inflation Remained a Bug
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. economy remained resilient early this year, with a strong job market fueling robust consumer spending. The trouble is that inflation was resilient, too. Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. That was down sharply from the 3.4 percent growth rate at the end of 2023 and fell well short of forecasters’ expectations. “It would suggest some moderation in growth but still a solid economy,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America.

Persons: ”, Michael Gapen Organizations: Gross, Commerce Department, Bank of America Locations: U.S

☆ The inflation fight has stalled and the first rate cut won't happen until December, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America pushed back its forecast for the first rate cut of 2024 from June to December. The re-acceleration of inflation means markets should expect just a single 25 basis-point cut this year. AdvertisementThe recent string of unexpectedly high inflation readings has led Bank of America to push back its forecast for the first rate-cut of 2024 from June to December. Moreover, unfavorable base effects mean year-over-year core PCE inflation will probably not decline further between the June and September meetings," the note said. This would mean one-25bp rate cut this year, instead of our previous forecast of 75bp in rate cuts," analysts added.

Persons: —, Michael Gapen, Goldman Sachs, Larry Summers Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America, RBC, US

☆ A bigger pool of American workers could continue to slow inflation even further
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Now, as the Federal Reserve faces the final stretch of its historic inflation battle, a bigger pool of workers could slow inflation even further. That then begs the question: How much more can better labor supply slow inflation? The US Labor Department releases January figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended March 2. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases February inflation data.

Persons: Mary Daly, “, ” Sarah House, Michael Gapen, That’s, Jack Bantock, ’, ”, Richard Felton, Thomas, ’ ”, Patrick Harker, Ross, Nordstrom, Michael Barr, Campbell Soup, Foot, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, National Association for Business Economics, Labor, CNN, Bank of America, White House’s Council, Economic Advisers, English Premier League, Chelsea, Burnley, Philadelphia Fed, Target, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, Abercrombie, Fitch, Financial Services, The Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Broadcom, Costco, Eagle Outfitters, Potbelly, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, European Central Bank, Cleveland Fed, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, San, Wells, United States, London, JD.com, Kroger, Burlington, DocuSign

☆ Jobs data show little sign of impending slodown in activity: BofA's Michael Gapen
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJobs data show little sign of impending slodown in activity: BofA's Michael GapenMichael Gapen, head of U.S. economics at BofA Securities, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss January labor statistics, the timeline for Fed rate cuts, and more.

Persons: Michael Gapen Michael Gapen, Steve Liesman Organizations: BofA Securities

☆ Wall Street has adjusted its expectations for when the Fed starts cutting rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Traders have moved out the probability of a March easing from around 90% in recent weeks to a coin-flip in the days leading up to this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting to about a 1-in-3 chance Thursday. That's not to say the market still doesn't think the committee will cut rates sharply this year, but any dialing back now probably won't come quite as soon as expected. For the most part, Wall Street commentary showed an expectation that the Fed will cut at least four times this year, likely beginning in either May or June. "As inflation falls, real rates become more restrictive, and we think gaining consensus to cut will be easier." Most of Wall Street expects the FOMC to skip November, as the meeting falls the same week as the U.S. presidential election.

Persons: Jerome Powell, That's, Matthew Luzzetti, FOMC, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Powell, David Mericle, Michael Gapen, Marc Giannoni, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Traders, Deutsche Bank, Dow Jones, Fed, Wall, U.S, Bank of America, Barclays

Since June, the quarterly "dot plot" of policymakers' projections of the appropriate path of policy has shown rates rising another quarter point this year. Investors will be eager for the boost a rate cut would give to markets, and consumers will be relieved by lower mortgage and credit rates. Indeed, in remarks last week Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that over the last six months inflation had averaged around 2.5%. Investors, meanwhile, have become increasingly fixed on March as a starting point for rate cuts. Between falling inflation and a modest slowdown in growth, Powell said: "We are getting what we wanted to get."

Persons: Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus, Reinhart, Donald Trump, Michael Gapen, Gapen, Jerome Powell, Powell, Christopher Waller, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal Reserve, Mellon, WE, Republican, Bank of America, Fed, Spelman College, Thomson Locations: U.S, Atlanta

☆ A soft landing for the economy is expected, says BofA's Michael Gapen
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA soft landing for the economy is expected, says BofA's Michael GapenMichael Gapen, head of U.S. economics at BofA Securities, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the trajectory of the economy, the Fed's interest rate outlook, and more.

Persons: BofA's Michael Gapen Michael Gapen Organizations: BofA Securities

☆ Interest rate cuts are coming next year, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America predicted the Fed will cut interest rates in the middle of 2024. Still, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is not considering rate cuts right now. As Insider previously reported, the point at which experts predict interest rate cuts are coming in the US vary. When it comes to the Federal Reserve itself, it doesn't think interest rate cuts should be top of Americans' minds right now. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the November press conference following the central bank's announcement to continue its pause on rate hikes that he's "not talking about rate cuts."

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, Candace Browning, Michael Gapen, Powell Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America, BofA Global Research, UBS, Fed, Vanguard, Federal Reserve

WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday with officials widely expected to keep interest rates on hold for now, but also flagging in new economic projections whether they feel rates still need to rise further before the end of the year. A new policy statement and interest rate decision will be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Wednesday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. to elaborate. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsIn June the Fed paused, but the quarterly economic projections accompanying that decision showed 12 of 18 policymakers still anticipated two more quarter-point rate increases by the end of the year. But how fast and when that occurs remains a matter of debate within the Fed and depends on how fast inflation falls. But it may mean rates stay higher for longer than the public currently expects.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Morgan, Michael Feroli, Feroli, Powell, Michael Gapen, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Bank of America, Thomson Locations: synch

"We now forecast a mild recession in the U.S. economy this year ... In May and June, the Fed staff projections "continued to assume" the U.S. economy would be in recession by the end of the year. Fed policymakers' projections, which are issued on a quarterly basis, never showed GDP contracting on an annual basis. 'CHUGGING ALONG'What made the difference between an in-the-moment recession that many thought was underway last year to growth that has surprised to the upside? An Atlanta Fed GDP "nowcast" puts output growth for the current July-September period at 5.0%, showing continued strong momentum.

Persons: Biden, Michael Gapen, Gapen, Jerome Powell, Powell, Sharif, We've, Sal Guatieri, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Bank of America, Fed, Reuters, Valley Bank, Atlanta Fed, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, California

☆ A former BlackRock stock chief shares 3 indicators that tell him it's too early to abandon his recession call despite the economy's strength — and warns the stock market's rally is doomed for a revers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The inverted yield curve and The Conference Board's LEI are two indicators that inform his view. Instead, investors should be paying attention to indicators like the Treasury yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and money growth. Here's the yield curve. And the start of a recession typically comes a bunch of of months after the yield curve inverts. The yield curve didn't invert until less than a year ago.

Persons: Bob Doll, LEI, Doll, Wall, — Bank of America's Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli —, we're, Louis, It's, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Greg Boutle, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, — Bank of America's, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Louis Investors, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, BNP, Institute for Supply, Institute for Supply Management, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wells

☆ Asia shares on guard for US, China inflation risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> was a fraction firmer in thin trade, after losing 2.3% last week. Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) eased 0.7% with investors still disappointed at the lack of major and concrete stimulus steps from Beijing. Going the other way, S&P 500 futures added 0.4% and Nasdaq futures 0.5%. In China, the market is looking for further signs of deflation with annual consumer prices seen down around 0.5%, and producer prices falling 4%. Futures imply only a 12% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, and 24% for a rise by year-end.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Walt Disney, Goldman Sachs, Michael Gapen, Brent, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Yen, REUTERS, Nikkei, SYDNEY, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Nasdaq, News Corp, Goldman, Federal, Fed, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Beijing, Ukraine

☆ Not everyone is convinced the US will avoid a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —The case for no US recession is building, but some on Wall Street are cautioning against getting overconfident. That has raised hopes among investors that the United States could avoid a recession despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive pace of interest rate hikes. Still, some investors are maintaining that the US economy could tip into a recession later this year. The index of leading economic indicators is just kind of at an extreme rating. One of the reasons for the rise in equity valuations in recent weeks was the pricing out of recession or economic weakness.

Persons: Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli, ”, Bell, David Donabedian, we’ve, There’s, Catherine Thorbecke, Danielle Romain, Romain, Read, Uno Mattel, Uno Quatro, Ellie Stevens, “ We’re, Ray Adler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase’s, CIBC Private Wealth, Fitch, Google, Trust, Mattel, Uno Locations: New York, United States, New York City

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