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☆ What the Syrian rebellion could mean for the balance of power in the Middle East
▼ + stars: | 2024-12-07 | by ( Mostafa Salem | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +12 min

Syrian rebels have made a lightning advance in the north of the country, taking two major cities: Aleppo, the second biggest city, and Hama, a strategically important city that lies on a vital supply route. For Russia, Syria’s fall could mean losing its closest Middle Eastern ally and undermining its ability to project power while it fights a war in Ukraine. In 2023, the Syrian regime was readmitted to the Arab League. Over a decade after they backed the Syrian opposition, Gulf Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are now siding with Assad as he once again faces a rebellion. SANA/ReutersIn Syria, Israel has consistently targeted Iranian personnel and supply routes used to transfer weapons to its proxies.

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Erdogan's ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin have weighed on Turkey's relations with its traditional Western allies for years, along with other factors including concern over his increasingly autocratic rule. "Turkey doesn't want the Turkish-Russian relationship to be badly hurt, but this will inevitably have an impact on relations. Ankara has been important to Moscow as Erdogan has refused to join Western sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine invasion. 'ROSE-TINTED SPECTACLES'The Kremlin said it intended to develop relations with Turkey "despite all the disagreements". In 2009, Cyprus blocked six out of the 35 chapters Turkey must conclude as part of its EU accession negotiations.

Persons: Erdogan, Tayyip Erdogan, Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Dalay, Washington, Biden, Putin, Dmitry Peskov, Peskov, Evren Balta, Orhan Coskun, Tom Perry, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: NATO Russian, NATO, Western, Analysts, Ukraine, Chatham, VISA, Turkish, Reuters, Kremlin, Russia, European Union, EU, Union, Ozyegin University, Thomson Locations: Sweden, Turkey, Washington, ANKARA, ISTANBUL, U.S, Russia, Ukraine, Ankara, Moscow, Turkish, NATO, Republic of Turkey, Europe, Cyprus

"The winner has undoubtedly been our country," Erdogan said in a speech to cheering supporters at the headquarters of his ruling Islamist-rooted AK Party in the capital Ankara overnight. Going into the election, the opposition had sensed its best chance yet of unseating Erdogan, encouraged by polls showing him trailing his main challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu. But the results suggested Erdogan and his AK Party had been able to rally conservative voters despite a cost-of-living crisis. [1/4] Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and AK Party (AKP) gather on election night, in Istanbul, Turkey May 15, 2023. "During the campaign period ahead of the runoff, President Erdogan is likely to emphasise stability as he already retains the majority in the parliament," Dalay said.

☆ Instant View: Turkey faces runoff election as Erdogan survives first test but remains at risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/3] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan greets his supporters as he leaves his residence in Istanbul, Turkey May 14, 2023. I would expect a significant crash in the Istanbul stock exchange and lots of fluctuations in the currency. Both sides will try to make a case for themselves but Erdogan will be in an advantage in a second round. GALIP DALAY, ASSOCIATE FELLOW AT CHATHAM HOUSE"If the current numbers are confirmed by the Supreme Election Board, the governing coalition will go to the second round with numeric and psychological advantages. It has the majority in the parliament and Erdogan is poised to go to the second round with a lead over his rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu."

[1/4] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Central Bank Governor Sahap Kavcioglu are pictured during a signing ceremony in Ankara, Turkey, June 8, 2022. But his drastic transformation of the economy and financial markets means such a change would bring its own uncertainties. The election will also determine what role regional military power and NATO member Turkey plays in conflicts in Ukraine, where Erdogan has helped broker talks, and in neighbour Syria. In the short-term it seems to have worked however, halting a years-long rise in Turks converting lira into dollars. Last week, Turkey had no problem borrowing $2.75 billion from international capital markets.

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