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Issei Kato - 1 Kazuo Ueda - 1 Mitsubishi UFJ - 1 Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley - 1 Hiroshi Namioka - 1 Namioka - 1 Fumio Kishida's - 1 Chiyuki Takamatsu - 1
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☆ BOJ to end negative interest rates in 2024, over 80% of economists say: Reuters poll
  + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Satoshi Sugiyama | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
While none of 26 economists predicted changes in the upcoming December BOJ meeting, many foresaw the negative rate policy, which has set Japan's short-term deposit rate at minus 0.1%, would reach the end of the line next year. In the Nov. 15-20 poll, 22 of 26, or 85%, of economists said the BOJ would end the policy by the end of next year. Having watered down YCC, the BOJ's next focus is to end its negative interest rate policy and push short-term rates to zero, sources previously told Reuters. Close to 85% of poll respondents forecast the BOJ would end its YCC policy, while the rest said it would tweak the scheme again, the poll found. EYES ON NEXT YEAROf 22 economists in the poll who chose 2024 for the end of negative rates, more than a half, 12, opted for the April 25-26 meeting.
Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Hiroshi Namioka, Namioka, Fumio Kishida's, Chiyuki Takamatsu, Satoshi Sugiyama, Veronica Khongwir, Sujith Pai, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of, Reuters, Capital, Research Institute, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, D, Management, Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan
☆ Analysis: Japanese insurers likely to provide tailwind to yen as BOJ shifts
  + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Rae Wee Daiki Iga | Rae Wee | Daiki Iga | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
[1/3] Examples of Japanese yen banknotes are displayed at a media event in Tokyo, Japan, November 21, 2022. Those positions took a hit when Tuesday's Bank of Japan policy shift allowed 10-year yields to almost double to 0.47%. On Wednesday the long end of Japan's yield curve actually rallied, with 30-year yields down 2.5 bps to 1.545%. "The 10-year yield is still very low ... maybe they will invest in the 20-year." In Australia, where Japan is also the largest foreign player in the bond market, 10-year yields are up about 20 bps.
☆ BOJ may unwind ultra-easy policy in 2023, nearly half of economists say- Reuters poll
  + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
TOKYO, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) could unwind its ultra-loose monetary policy between March and October next year, according to almost half the economists in a Reuters poll on Monday, much sooner than predicted in previous projections. Of 26 economists polled, 11 expect the central bank will unwind its ultra-loose policy between March and October, the Dec. 8-15 poll found. Half, or 13, said the BOJ wouldn't scale back until 2024 or later and two still expect the next move to be more easing of policy. The most common means tipped by analysts for the BOJ to unwind stimulus would be a tweak to its forward guidance, according to 15 respondents. DEFENCE WITHOUT DEBTAsked about how Japan's defence budget spending increase would ideally be funded, nine of 20 economists chose tax hikes.
☆ POLL Rising U.S. rates pose biggest risk for Japan but recession unlikely
  + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
REUTERS/Florence Lo/IllustrationTOKYO, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The biggest risk to Japan's economy over the next year is a prolonged period of U.S. monetary tightening, although the world's third-largest economy is unlikely to sink into a recession, the majority of economists polled by Reuters said. Policymakers worldwide, including the International Monetary Fund, have cut global growth projections for 2023, citing elevated prices and higher cost of borrowing. While most economists agreed that such risks would not plunge Japan into a recession, they said that was mainly owing to a low base. "Japan's economy appears robust compared with overseas peers, but that's just because its recovery from the pandemic has been lagging behind," said Fukoku's Takamatsu. Elsewhere in the poll, a median estimate of 34 respondents had the Japanese economy expanding an annualised 2.0% in October-December, slightly better than the 1.9% forecast in the September poll.
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