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☆ Investors flock to US natural gas ETF despite price slump
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Suzanne Mcgee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Storage tanks and gas-chilling units are seen at Freeport LNG, the second largest exporter of U.S. liquified natural gas, near Freeport, Texas, U.S., February 11, 2023. Reuters/Arathy Somasekhar/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsDec 1 (Reuters) - Investors have been piling into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to track U.S. natural gas prices, in spite of the commodity's dismal performance in 2023. The U.S. Natural Gas Fund's (UNG) (UNG.P) price, tied to the performance of futures contracts on the commodity, has plunged 60.7% so far this year, falling 27% in November alone. Analysts said the drop in the ETF's price came alongside a fall in the price of natural gas sparked by milder than usual weather across the United States in recent weeks. Natural gas prices fell about 22% in November, the single largest monthly percentage drop since a 40% decline in January.

Persons: Arathy, Stacey Morris, Morris, UNG, Suzanne McGee, Ira Iosebashvili, Emelia Organizations: Reuters, Natural, Analysts, New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Thomson Locations: Freeport, U.S, Freeport , Texas, United States

☆ How shipping more US natural gas to Europe helped fuel CO2 pollution
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Tim Mclaughlin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The administration approved five U.S. LNG export licenses to serve the European market following Russia's invasion, having approved none beforehand. U.S. special climate envoy John Kerry told Reuters last year that greenhouse gas emissions were an inevitable "downside" to increasing LNG exports to European allies. CO2 emissions from the energy-intensive process of liquefying gas for export mark only one stage in the industry's overall climate impact. Critics argue that it is unclear whether the U.S. gas export boom to Europe is displacing coal or delaying a transition to renewables like solar and wind. NextDecade Corp has said its proposed terminal near Brownsville, Texas, could remove more than 90% of its expected 6.4 million tons per year of carbon emissions.

Persons: Arathy, Biden, John Kerry, Robert Fee, Critics, Alexandra Shaykevich, Sempra, Susan Richardson, Tim McLaughlin, Richard Valdmanis, Suzanne Goldenberg Organizations: Reuters, Cheniere Energy, United, U.S . Environmental Protection Agency, Federal Energy Regulatory, Biden White, LNG, The Energy Department, FERC, U.S, Energy Information Administration, Reuters Graphics, Washington, Venture Global, CCS, SEC, Talos Energy, NextDecade, Thomson Locations: Freeport, U.S, Freeport , Texas, United States, Russia, Ukraine, Europe, Texas, Cameron, Louisiana, Brownsville , Texas

Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 21 million barrels of crude oil options and futures but purchased 18 million barrels of products, including 14 million of distillates, over the week ending on June 13. The biggest rotation has been from U.S. crude to European gas oil, reflecting the rise in crude inventories in the United States while stocks of distillates, used heavily in Europe, remain well below normal around the world. The most recent weekly increase in gas oil positions was the largest for almost two years since August 2021 and before that November 2020. Funds had already built a fairly sizeable position in U.S. diesel and now bullishness is starting to spill over into European gas oil. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 16 million barrels (+4% or +0.28 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average on June 9.

Persons: ”, John Kemp, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: ICE, Funds, diesel, Saudi, Thomson, Reuters Locations: United States, Europe, NYMEX, U.S, Freeport LNG, Saudi

Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 28 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on June 6. Funds bought Brent (+22 million barrels), U.S. diesel (+7 million) and European gas oil (+4 million) but sold NYMEX and ICE WTI (-2 million) and U.S. gasoline (-3 million). Portfolio investors are especially bearish about crude, with a net position of 269 million barrels (7th percentile) and a long-short ratio of 2.39:1 (14th percentile). The hedge fund community has become especially bearish about the outlook for European gas oil given indications the region is already in recession. Funds were net short by 12 million barrels (3rd percentile) with a long-short ratio of 0.73:1 (2nd percentile).

Persons: Saudi Arabia’s, WTI, ”, John Kemp, Alexander Smith Organizations: Investors, Funds, U.S ., ICE, Bloomberg, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Saudi, China, U.S, Riyadh, OPEC, Freeport

Over the same period, however, working gas inventories increased by 454 billion cubic feet compared with a prior 10-year average increase of 401 billion cubic feet. No progress was made eliminating excess inventories during the spring quarter. Freeport LNG's re-opened export terminal did not make a significant difference in depleting the excess inventories accumulated during the winter of 2022/23. Unless the summer is unusually hot, boosting gas consumption by electricity generators, excess inventories look set to persist for several more months. As a result, hedge funds and other money managers have been cautious about turning bullish on gas prices.

Persons: John Kemp, Paul Simao Organizations: Climate Prediction Center, CPC, Freeport LNG's, Thomson, Reuters Locations: United States, U.S, Ukraine

As a result, the combined position had been reduced to just 302 million barrels (7th percentile for all weeks since 2013) on May 2 from 534 million barrels (38th percentile) on April 18. The position has essentially returned to where it was on March 21 (289 million barrels, 2.16:1) before OPEC⁺ surprised investors by announcing production cuts on April 2 totalling more than 1 million barrels per day. Chartbook: Oil and gas positionsThe most recent week saw sales across the board in Brent (-69 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-37 million), European gas oil (-24 million), U.S. diesel (-11 million) and U.S. gasoline (-4 million). Fund managers had become especially bearish on middle distillates such as diesel and gas oil, the most exposed to the business cycle. Funds sold the equivalent of 71 billion cubic feet over the seven days ending on May 2, after selling 99 billion cubic feet the week before.

But growth is set to decelerate sharply as the more recent slump in prices curtails new drilling and well completions, with the impact evident by the fourth quarter of 2023. Chartbook: U.S. oil and gas productionMuch of the increase was the lagged effect of high prices and additional drilling during the first nine months of 2022. Slower drilling will filter through into slower production growth before the end of 2023, helping offset slower consumption growth as a result of the business cycle downturn. GAS PRODUCTIONU.S. gas production increased to a record 5,984 billion cubic feet in the first two months of 2023, up from 5,600 billion cubic feet in the same period in 2022, an increase of almost 7%. Working gas inventories in underground storage amounted to 2,009 billion cubic feet on April 21 compared with 1,484 billion cubic feet at the same point a year earlier.

The combined position fell to 447 million barrels (23rd percentile for all weeks since 2013) down from 534 million barrels (38th percentile) seven days earlier. Funds sold the equivalent of 99 billion cubic feet over the seven days ending on April 25, after buying a net total of 1,287 billion cubic feet in the previous eight weeks. The position slipped to 12 billion cubic feet net short (31st percentile for all weeks since 2006) from 87 billion cubic feet net long (34th percentile) a week earlier. Stocks were 280 billion cubic feet (+16% or +0.61 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average on April 21, up from a deficit of 263 billion cubic feet (-8% or -0.98 standard deviations) on Jan. 1. Related columns:- Oil market has absorbed surprise production cut by OPEC⁺ (April 26, 2023)- Oil buying slows amid renewed concerns about economy (April 24, 2023)- Oil prices stall as short-covering rally is completed (April 17, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

The most recent week saw purchases of NYMEX and ICE WTI (+12 million), Brent (+8 million), U.S. gasoline (+2 million) and European gas oil (+1 million) but sales of U.S. diesel (-3 million). But in products, the long-short ratio has increased to only 2.69:1 (40th percentile) from 2.39:1 (38th percentile) on March 21. And in middle distillates, such as gas oil and ultra-low sulphur diesel, the ratio has actually fallen slightly to 1.70:1 (33rd percentile) from 1.78:1 (35th percentile). Even on the crude side, however, the end of the short-covering process has sapped oil prices of some of their upward short-term momentum. U.S. NATURAL GASInvestors are becoming cautiously more bullish on U.S. gas prices, anticipating prices have already dropped so low the balance of risks is tilted strongly towards the upside.

The buying came as OPEC+ announced cuts totalling more than 1 million barrels per day on April 2 and after fund managers had already purchased 61 million barrels the previous week. Purchases centred on crude, in both Brent (+73 million barrels) and NYMEX and ICE WTI (+60 million barrels), with small sales of European gas oil (-2 million) and U.S. diesel (-3 million) and no change in U.S. gasoline. CRUDE SQUEEZEWith its surprise announcement, OPEC+ successfully squeezed the shorts in crude petroleum, with bearish positions reduced to the lowest for 11 weeks since late January. Since March 21, funds have purchased a total of 174 million barrels of crude, the fastest rate since December 2019 and before that September 2017. Bearish short positions were cut by 113 million barrels while fund managers added 61 million barrels of new bullish long positions.

This marked a sharp turnaround after fund managers sold a total of 281 million barrels over the two preceding weeks, the fastest rate of selling for almost six years. Most of the buying came from the closure of previous bearish short positions (-48 million barrels) rather than initiation of new bullish longs (+13 million). Buying was concentrated in NYMEX and ICE WTI (+49 million barrels), U.S. gasoline (+14 million), U.S. diesel (+5 million) and European gas oil (+1 million) with sales of Brent (-9 million). Short positions in NYMEX and ICE WTI were slashed (-51 million barrels) but no new bullish positions were established and in fact long positions were trimmed marginally (-2 million). U.S. GAS POSITIONSFund managers are becoming less bearish about the outlook for U.S. gas prices following the full re-opening of Freeport LNG’s export terminal.

Big gas producers including Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK.O) and Comstock Resources Inc (CRK.N) are reducing their drilling. "About a third of U.S. gas production is associated gas - produced from oil wells," said Jacques Rousseau, a managing director at research firm ClearView Energy Partners LLC. Gas from the Permian also has climbed to record highs every month this year. PRODUCTION REMAINS STICKYU.S. gas production remains on track to hit 100.67 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this year, up from last year's record 98.09 bcfd, according to the U.S. government. Despite low gas prices, U.S. drillers have 160 rigs seeking gas up 16% from a year ago, according to data from Baker Hughes Co (BKR.O).

Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 142 million barrels in the six most important contracts in the seven days ending on March 21, after selling 139 million barrels in the week to March 14. Fund managers have slashed their combined position to just 289 million barrels (6th percentile for all weeks since 2013) from 570 million (46th percentile) on March 7. The fund community liquidated 163 million barrels of previous bullish long positions in the two most recent weeks, while establishing 115 million barrels of new bearish short ones. The most recent week saw heavy sales across the board, including Brent (-63 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-48 million), U.S. gasoline (-15 million), U.S. diesel (-6 million) and European gas oil (-10 million). Anticipating the erosion of the surplus, funds have bought the equivalent of 774 billion cubic feet in the last seven weeks.

Working stocks in underground storage amounted to 1,900 billion cubic feet on March 17, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the highest for the time of year since 2020 and before that 2017. Stocks were 242 billion cubic feet (+15% or +0.54 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average (“Weekly natural gas storage report”, EIA, March 23). The seasonal storage surplus was a total transformation from a deficit of 263 billion cubic feet (-8% or -0.98 standard deviations) on Jan. 1 and 427 bcf (-13% or -1.52 standard deviations) on Sept. 9. But liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports increased to a record 3,866 billion cubic feet, an even faster increase of 8.6% compared with 2021. Related columns:- U.S. gas prices near record low amid over-production (Feb. 22)- U.S. gas prices slump to maximise power burn (Feb. 10)- U.S. gas prices slump on production surplus (Jan. 12)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ U.S. regulators seek more answers from Freeport LNG to weigh restart request
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Companies Freeport LNG Development LP FollowMarch 6 (Reuters) - U.S. regulators sent another list of questions seeking information to Freeport LNG on Monday, as they evaluate its request to restart full commercial operations of its export facility in Texas. Last month, the privately held LNG export facility, the second-biggest in the U.S., started to exit an eight-month outage that was caused by a fire in June 2022. FERC and the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) sought answers on operating conditions and steps taken to improve safety. The request asked for "a status update on Freeport LNG’s hiring efforts to address operator fatigue and training status of the new hires," according to FERC's letter to Freeport. The fiery blast that knocked the facility offline last June resulted from inadequate operating and testing procedures, operator fatigue and other shortcomings, a review found.

☆ US natgas plunges 15% on less cold forecasts, biggest drop in 8 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. natural gas futures plunged by about 15% on Monday - its biggest one-day drop in over eight months —on forecasts for much less cold weather and heating demand than previously expected over the next two weeks. "This has translated to ... [gas] demand lost over the forecast period ... With the vast majority of that being [residential and commercial] demand," Gelber said. The gas market is used to huge price swings, which are usually related to changes in weather forecasts. When operating at full power, Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March 2022, before the Freeport LNG facility shut.

☆ US natural gas prices plummet 13% as streak of mild winter weather set to continue
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Natural gas prices have fallen 13% amid forecasts of more mild weather as winter winds down. Falling prices are a sign that the US needs to scale back gas production, some commentators say. Henry hub natural gas futures for April fell to $2.62 per million British thermal units, according to data from the CME Group, down 12.73% from its previous close of $3 per million BTUs. Natural gas prices have tanked 34% since the start of the year, with the latest drop spurred by warm weather forecasts for the coming weeks. The changes in supply-demand balance are a stark contrast from last year, when issues stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine spiked gas prices on the spot market.

LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - U.S. gas prices have slumped close to their lowest level on record, after adjusting for inflation, as traders respond to signs of a persistent production surplus in the domestic market. Chartbook: U.S. gas prices and inventoriesThe U.S. gas market appears to have been running a persistent surplus since early September 2022, which has sent futures prices tumbling. The storage surplus marked a significant turn around from a deficit of -427 billion cubic feet (-13% or -1.52 standard deviations) on September 9. Gas prices are now sending the strongest possible signal for fuel-switching to blunt the accumulation of excess stocks. Related columns:- U.S. gas prices slump to maximise power burn (Reuters, February 10, 2023)- U.S. gas prices slump on production surplus (Reuters, January 12, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

As a result, research on business cycles moved in other directions, and policymakers increasingly aimed to eliminate cyclical instability altogether. Oil and gas cycles have been closely correlated with each other and with U.S. manufacturing activity. On average, troughs in oil prices occur within ±3 months of a turning point in U.S. manufacturing activity, while troughs in gas prices occur within ±4 months. Some softness in manufacturing activity as well as oil and gas prices should therefore be expected at this point. If the current slowdown proves to be a mid-cycle soft patch, gas and especially oil prices are likely to rise strongly later in 2023.

After a dearth of plant approvals last decade, developers have secured dozens of long-term contracts to finance new multibillion-dollar LNG plants. The United States was long an importer of LNG, but natural gas discoveries and production from the shale revolution flipped the country into an LNG exporter in 2016. U.S. LNG exports hit 10.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022, making the country the second biggest LNG exporter behind Australia. But their production volumes will allow the United States to remain ahead of output from Australia and Qatar. The seven U.S. export plants already in service, including Freeport LNG, can turn about 13.8 billion cubic feet of gas into LNG each day.

☆ Natural gas prices fall to 25-month low as key Texas LNG facility looks to restart exports
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Natural gas prices declined to a 25-month low on Monday, falling as much as 5%. The fall came despite news that a key LNG export hub in Texas looks to restart operations. The Freeport liquefied natural gas plant first went offline in June of last year due to a fire. Meanwhile, forecasts for mild winter weather continued to weigh on natural gas prices as demand for the heating fuel lags. For now, natural gas is flowing to the Freeport plant even as exports have yet to resume.

☆ U.S. energy regulators questioned on oversight of Freeport, Texas, LNG plant
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Companies Freeport LNG Development LP FollowFREEPORT, Texas, Feb 11 (Reuters) - U.S. energy regulators on Saturday assured Texas residents they are monitoring repairs and the eventual restart of the fire-idled Freeport LNG plant as a vessel this week began taking the first fuel out of its storage tanks in eight months. When fully operational, Freeport LNG processes about 2 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas and exports up to 15 million tonnes of LNG per year. Methane is the main component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas. Freeport LNG was invited to send a representative to Saturday's meeting, PHMSA said. Reporting by Arathy Somsekhar in Freeport, Texas Editing by Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Chartbook: U.S. gas prices and inventoriesFreeport’s eventual reopening should provide an outlet for some excess inventory, but with stocks in Europe also very full, exporters will have to compete for price-sensitive customers in Asia. Slumping futures prices will discourage drilling and incentivise electricity generators to run their gas-fired units for more hours at the expense of coal. Discounted futures prices will also boost combustion from the power sector, helping limit the accumulation of inventories this summer. Gas prices are now trading below the cost of coal, once the superior efficiency of gas-fired units is taken into account, which will encourage maximum gas burn this summer. Related columns:- Europe’s gas supply stabilises after colder weather (Reuters, February 3, 2023)- U.S. gas prices slump on production surplus (Reuters, January 12, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

We're buying 150 shares of Coterra Energy (CTRA) at roughly $23.84. One of the biggest commodity stories this year has been the significant decline in the price of natural gas. After peaking at around $10 per million British thermal units back in August, the price of nat gas has pretty much fallen off a cliff. Our other pure exploration and production stocks — Devon Energy (DVN) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) — are far less tied to nat gas. A drilling rig operates in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, February 10, 2019.

☆ U.S. natgas output to hit record high in 2023, demand to fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 100.27 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 101.68 bcfd in 2024 from a record 98.09 bcfd in 2022. The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would fall to 87.04 bcfd in 2023 and 86.10 bcfd in 2024 from a record 88.63 bcfd in 2022. But EIA's latest projections for 2023 were higher than its February 2022 forecasts of 97.97 bcfd for supply and 83.85 bcfd for demand. The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 11.78 bcfd in 2023 and 12.59 bcfd in 2024, up from a record 10.63 bcfd in 2022. That 2023 forecast was lower than the 12.06 bcfd EIA forecast in January due to the delayed restart of the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas.

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