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☆ Gold ticks up as Treasury yields slip; U.S. retail sales data in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices inched higher on Wednesday, as U.S. Treasury yields eased, while market participants waited for more U.S. economic data to determine the number of interest rate cuts the Federal Reserve is likely to deliver in the near term. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,667.97 per ounce by 0217 GMT, $17 shy of a record high hit last month. The 10-year Treasury yields slipped for a third straight session, making zero-yield bullion more appealing. "The game changer in gold prices is the U.S. monetary policy easing as it sets the stage for investment demand," said ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari. Delegates to the London Bullion Market Association's annual gathering predicted gold prices would rise to $2,941 over the next 12 months and silver prices would jump to $45 per ounce.

Persons: Soni Kumari, Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic, Benjamin Netanyahu, Emmanuel Macron Organizations: SA, Treasury, Federal Reserve, ANZ, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta Fed, London Locations: Budapest, Hungary, U.S, rearming

☆ Treasury yields dip as investors digest remarks from Fed officials
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday as investors digested comments from Federal Reserve policymakers about the state of the economy and monetary policy outlook. Investors considered the path ahead for interest rates after comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell. "The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence, and instead indicate that it's likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence," he said. Earlier in the week, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said there was "no urgency" for rate cuts to begin. Further comments from Fed officials are expected later in the week.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Mary Daly Organizations: Treasury, . U.S, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Locations: .

☆ 10-year Treasury yield holds above 4.6% as investors weigh interest rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by nearly 2 basis point to 4.6344%, trading at levels last seen in mid-November of 2023. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 4.947% after rising by less than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Tuesday as investors considered the latest economic data and comments from Federal Reserve policymakers. Investors weighed the path ahead for interest rates as they considered the latest economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said there was "no urgency" for the Fed to cut interest rates.

Persons: Mary Daly Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Investors, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Locations: Israel

☆ Dollar struggles to retain gains even as March rate cut odds recede
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Japan's yen was the notable mover in otherwise quiet trading, as it tiptoed away from Friday's one-month low of 148.80. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Friday said she believes the U.S. economy and monetary policy are in a "good place" and it is premature to think rate cuts are imminent. Short-term interest rate futures market show traders are betting interest rate cuts will start in May, with the probability of a March cut dropping below 50%, down from near 80% in the first weeks of January, according to CME Group data. "The USD holds a fair relationship with the evolving implied pricing for a March Fed cut, where rate cut probability falls the USD rallies, and vice versa," he wrote. Much of the gains have come from investor bets on Fed rate cuts.

Persons: dovish, Mary Daly, Chris Weston, Pepperstone Organizations: U.S, of Japan's, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Group, NatWest Markets, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Japan, Europe, U.S

Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in September, indicating Americans are tentative about the direction of the economy, according to the latest survey-based index from the University of Michigan. The overall consumer sentiment index, released on Friday, retreated to 67.7 from 69.5 in August, while the current conditions assessment dropped to 69.8 from 75.7 and the forward-looking expectations index increased to 66.3 from 65.5. “Sentiment this month was characterized by divergent movements across index components and across demographic groups with little net change from last month. There was improvement in how consumers see inflation going forward. That means workers are keeping just ahead of inflation, although prices for necessities such as groceries and gasoline have increased.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, “, ” Hsu, ” Bernard Baumohl, Baumohl, “ They’re, Joe Biden, – Ford, Peter Berezin Organizations: University of Michigan, Consumers, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Economic Outlook, Supreme, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Senate, Fed, BCA Research, Global Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S

☆ One unintended consequence of the unaffordable housing market: Crashing furniture sales
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US furniture retailers like RH and Williams-Sonoma are struggling to sell products in a tight housing market. The unaffordable housing market is stretching wallets and making new furniture less of a priority for buyers. A slew of furniture brands have reported weaker earnings in the most recent quarter. Furniture retailers have reported weaker sales as Americans, who are struggling to break into the housing market, aren't buying the usual amount of couches, tables, and home goods. "A housing shortage and the over 20-year high on fixed mortgage rates has slowed down housing activity.

Persons: RH, Hooker, Jeremy Hoff Organizations: Williams, Service, Bloomberg, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Locations: Sonoma, Wall, Silicon, Williams, Elm, Virginia

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. The Consumer Price Index reading for August is due on Sept. 13, while the Federal Reserve's policy decision is scheduled for Sept. 20. New York Fed President John Williams kept his options open over future interest rate policy and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said while it "could be appropriate" to skip a rate hike in the upcoming meeting, more policy tightening might be needed. DocuSign (DOCU.O) added 3.1% as the e-Signature product provider beat second-quarter results estimates and raised its annual revenue forecast. GameStop (GME.N) fell 2.3% on a report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating the videogame retailer's chairman, Ryan Cohen.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mark Haefele, Morgan Stanley, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Mary Daly, Ryan Cohen, Shristi Achar, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mizuho, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, UBS Global Wealth Management, Traders, FedWatch, Apple, Wall, Dow e, . New York Fed, Dallas Fed, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, GameStop, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Beijing, China, Bengaluru

☆ Stocks fall, yields rise after hotter than expected inflation reading
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. producer price index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.3% in July, according to the Labor Department. And in the 12 months through July, the PPI rose 0.8% against estimates for a 0.7% advance. On Thursday, Wall Street's main indexes had finished flat, giving up most early gains on milder-than-feared consumer price inflation data. In currencies, the dollar index rose 0.107%, with the euro down 0.18% to $1.0959. On the U.S. Treasuries side, yields rose after the hotter than expected PPI.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Paul Christopher, Christopher, Mary Daly, Sterling, Brent, Sinéad Carew, Elizabeth Howcroft, John Stonestreet, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Reserve, Labor Department, PPI, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Britain, International Energy Agency, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, St Louis, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London

Asian stocks fell to a one-month low and European indexes were in the red, with the STOXX 600 down 0.8% at 1125 GMT (.STOXX). "We’re still getting a mixed message from the inflation numbers," said Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at eToro. The pound was up 0.4% at $1.2725 , after GDP data showed Britain eked out some unexpected growth in the second quarter, helped by a strong June performance. But it remains the only large advanced economy that has not yet regained its pre-COVID late-2019 level, data showed on Friday. Investors will be watching for UK inflation data next Wednesday.

Persons: DAX, Mary Daly, We’re, Ben Laidler, eToro's Laidler, Brent, Elizabeth Howcroft, John Stonestreet, Susan Fenton Organizations: Credit Suisse, Wall, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Investors, Nasdaq, HK, Britain, West Texas, International Energy Agency, Thomson Locations: Silicon, China, Australia, Japan

☆ US dollar recovers from inflation-related losses; yen slumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The greenback climbed to five-week peaks against the yen of 144.735 , and last traded up 0.7% at 144.71 yen. The recovery of the dollar against both the euro and yen pushed the dollar index up 0.1% to 102.56 . Earlier in the session, the dollar dropped after data showed the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% last month, matching the gain in June. Investors are also on the lookout for possible intervention by the Japan to lift the yen. In September, Japan intervened when the dollar rose above 145 yen, pushing the pair to around 140 yen as the Ministry of Finance bought the yen to weaken the dollar.

Persons: Florence Lo, Yen, Helen, It's, Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Mary Daly, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Alun John, Mark Potter, Andrea Ricci, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, Monex USA, Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Federal, Market, Fed, Labor Department, Analysts, Ministry of Finance, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, Japan, London

☆ Daly: Premature to say if Fed has done enough on rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"Whether we raise another time, or hold rates steady for a longer period -- those things are yet to be determined," Daly said in an interview with Yahoo Finance. "It would be premature to project what I think would happen because there's a lot of information coming in between now and our next meeting." While goods inflation is receding, and newly signed lease trends signal inflation from housing will also cool, core services inflation excluding housing has so far made little progress, Daly said. The Fed raised its policy a quarter of a percentage point last month, to a range of 5.25% to 5%, and policymakers will consider whether to raise rates further when they meet again in September, November and December. Daly before the most recent rate hike had thought a total of two more interest-rate increases would likely be needed before year's end, but she did not reiterate that view on Thursday.

Persons: Mary Daly, Daly, Ann Saphir, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Yahoo Finance, U.S . Labor Department, Fed, Traders, Thomson

☆ From inflation to mortgages: What last week’s data says about the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-15 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, showed that inflation was double the target in May (more on inflation shortly). Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index showed that annual inflation slowed from 4% to 3% in June, the lowest level since March 2021. Then on Thursday came Producer Price Index data, which measures the average change in prices that businesses pay to suppliers. That data showed annual wholesale inflation cooled last month to the lowest level in nearly three years. And June of last year was monumental: Annual inflation soared to 9.1%, the highest in more than 40 years largely because of record-high energy costs,” she wrote.

Persons: Michael Scott, Price, ”, Mary Daly, “ It’s, Alicia Wallace, Freddie Mac, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, can’t, Dimon, “, — CNN’s Bryan Mena, Matt Egan Organizations: New, New York CNN, Reserve, ” San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, University of Michigan, JPMorgan, CNN Locations: New York, ” San Francisco

☆ San Francisco Fed president: ‘It’s really too early to declare victory on inflation’
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Despite promising signs that inflation is abating, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said the fight against price increases isn’t over. But she cautioned, “It’s really too early to declare victory on inflation.”The latest Consumer Price Index report published on Wednesday showed that annual inflation slowed from 4% to 3% in June, the lowest level since March 2021. However, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, showed that inflation was double its 2% target in May. Daly acknowledged there’s a risk the Fed will raise rates higher than what’s ultimately needed to get inflation down to 2%. Daly, who will be voting on interest rates at the Fed’s meetings next year, said she wouldn’t necessarily consider cutting rates once inflation hits 2%.

Persons: Mary Daly, ” Daly, “ It’s, Daly, there’s, “ can’t, ”, Daly’s, James Bullard Organizations: New, New York CNN, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, CNBC, Louis Federal Reserve Bank Locations: New York, San, St

☆ San Francisco Fed president: Silicon Valley Bank’s failure wasn’t our fault
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Washington, DC CNN —Silicon Valley Bank failed because regulators were far too slow to take action, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said Monday in her first extended remarks about the collapse. SVB operated in Daly’s district before the regional bank’s stunningly rapid failure in March, but she noted she doesn’t have a supervising role. Daly said the supervisors at the San Francisco Fed simply report issues to the Fed’s Board of Governors, which is ultimately responsible for fixing any regulatory issues. “My job is to support the supervision that the vice chair of supervision has set out, so how do I do that? The possibility of a rate hike in September remains unclear, though Powell said he wouldn’t take consecutive rate hikes off the table.

Persons: Mary Daly, SVB, ” Daly, Michael Barr, Democratic Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Daly, Jerome Powell, Warren, ”, Barr, it’s, It’s, Powell, Loretta Mester, Mester, “, Raphael Bostic, ” Bostic, ” — CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: DC CNN, Valley Bank, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Brookings Institution, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, Democratic, San Francisco Fed, Fed’s, of Governors, Fed, San Francisco, Cleveland Fed, University of California, Atlanta Fed, trickling, Cobb County Chamber of Commerce Locations: Washington, Daly’s district, Washington ,, San Francisco Fed, San Diego, Cobb County, Atlanta

☆ Oil dips on demand worries as more rate hikes likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

More U.S. interest rate hikes also seemed likelier. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said two more rate hikes this year was a "very reasonable" projection. The Bank of England rate rise triggered fund liquidation and energy producers were moving to a "hedge now" mentality, Kissler added. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. Risk-aversion among investors also boosted the value of the U.S. dollar, which pressures oil prices by making the commodity more expensive for other currency holders.

Persons: Brent, Mary Daly, Dennis Kissler, China's, Alex Lawler, Sudarshan, Philippa Fletcher, Kirsten Donovan, Louise Heavens, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Fed's Daly Bank of, HOUSTON, . West Texas, Bank of England, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, EU, BOK, The Bank of, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Norway, Switzerland, San, China, Saudi, OPEC

Last week Fed policymakers decided to hold the policy rate steady at the current 5%-5.25% range, interrupting what had been a string of 10 straight increases aimed at stomping inflation. The unemployment rate has crept up to 3.7% but is lower than the 4% rate Fed policymakers estimate is consistent with a fully employed American workforce on a sustainable basis. That's one more reason, she said, to slow down on rate hikes. "No wonder there's a couple of extra rate hikes," Daly said. Two more quarter-point rate hikes this year, Daly said, is "a very reasonable projection at this point," she said.

Persons: Florence Lo, Mary Daly, Daly, what's, Banks, I've, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Reuters, Thomson

☆ Dollar eases as US inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, April 13 (Reuters) - The dollar was on the back foot on Thursday after cooler-than-anticipated U.S. inflation data lifted risk sentiment and stoked expectations that the Federal Reserve will be done with its monetary tightening after hiking one last time next month. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, eased 0.03% to 101.44, hovering around a one week low of 101.40 after sinking 0.6% overnight. "While disinflation trends continue and broadened across headline, core and supercore measures, the CPI report is hardly an all clear on inflation," strategists at Saxo Markets said. Taylor Nugent, an economist at National Australia Bank, said the CPI data and the minutes provided ample fodder for those reading the Fed tea leaves, noting that inflation showed welcome, but not overwhelming progress. The Japanese yen weakened 0.04% to 133.20 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2486, up 0.04% on the day.

☆ Dollar eases as U.S. inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An image of the U.S. dollar bill and a euro coinThe dollar was on the back foot on Thursday after cooler-than-anticipated U.S. inflation data lifted risk sentiment and stoked expectations that the Federal Reserve will be done with its monetary tightening after hiking one last time next month. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, eased 0.03% to 101.44, hovering around a one week low of 101.40 after sinking 0.6% overnight. "While disinflation trends continue and broadened across headline, core and supercore measures, the CPI report is hardly an all clear on inflation," strategists at Saxo Markets said. Taylor Nugent, an economist at National Australia Bank, said the CPI data and the minutes provided ample fodder for those reading the Fed tea leaves, noting that inflation showed welcome, but not overwhelming progress. The Japanese yen weakened 0.04% to 133.20 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2486, up 0.04% on the day.

☆ San Francisco Fed leader Daly likely not a major player in SVB saga, officials say
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"She was not in the chain of command," one former Fed bank president told CNBC. "Supervisory action taken by the San Francisco Fed staff would have been cleared by Washington." Daly and Fed board officials declined to comment for this report. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly reacts at the Los Angeles World Affairs Council Town Hall, Los Angeles, California, U.S., October 15, 2019. A review of what went wrong will likely point more heavily to Washington, its supervisory bureaucracy and the board leadership than to San Francisco.

☆ A Climate for Failed Bank Regulation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Congress will hold hearings this week on the role of regulators in recent bank failures, and let’s hope they’re instructive. One question that deserves probing is whether misplaced priorities at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank caused it to overlook financial risks hiding in plain sight. The Fed’s mandates include promoting price stability and full employment on monetary policy and a safe and sound banking system as a regulator. The San Francisco Fed is responsible for regulating banks in the Western U.S., and one of those was Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) that failed two weeks ago.

☆ US Sen. Scott pushes for new Fed inspector general, slams Fed over bank regulation,
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( David Morgan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Senator Rick Scott said on Monday he will introduce legislation to create an independent inspector general to oversee the Federal Reserve, as he called the U.S. central bank "unable or unwilling to properly regulate" banks in a letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. "I am proposing legislation to establish a presidentially-appointed and Senate-confirmed inspector general for the Federal Reserve," Scott told Powell in the letter. The Federal Reserve is responsible for supervising - monitoring, inspecting and examining - certain financial institutions to ensure that they comply with rules and regulations, and that they operate in a safe and sound manner. Scott's legislation stems from concern in Congress that the Federal Reserve's current inspector general is not independent enough to serve as a check on the central bank. Scott also urged the Fed chief to use the central bank's policy meeting this week to examine the bank failures and identify accountable Fed personnel.

☆ About Those ‘Safe’ Silicon Valley Bank Treasurys
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

One surprise for investors in the Silicon Valley Bank failure is that it didn’t hold exotic derivatives, structured debt products or other horrors that caused so much financial carnage 15 years ago. SVB held boring Treasurys and highly rated mortgage-backed securities in large quantities. Bad management and negligent oversight from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank played a role. But the politicians and regulators who supposedly fixed the financial system after 2008 share responsibility. The banking rules they introduced after 2008 made sovereign bonds such as Treasurys and the mortgage securities of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac the coin of the realm for bank capital standards.

Silicon Valley Bank had $209 billion in assets at the end of last year, while Signature Bank had some $110 billion. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank is a direct result of an absurd 2018 bank deregulation bill signed by (Republican former President) Donald Trump that I strongly opposed," Senator Bernie Sanders said in a statement. he added, saying awareness of the bank's recent growth and business model should have led Fed officials to anticipate trouble. In an op-ed for the New York Times, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren placed some of the blame at the feet of bank regulators, whom she accused of "letting financial institutions load up on risk." "There won't be legislation getting through Congress, and so regulators will be making the big decisions," he said.

☆ Wondering what the hell just happened at SVB? Here's everything you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Sindhu Sundar | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Silicon Valley Bank, a once-trusted banker to startups, was closed down by regulators on Friday. SVB became the latest casualty of a bank run as VCs and founders rushed to protect their funds. Sign up for our newsletter for the latest tech news and scoops — delivered daily to your inbox. The bank had already been experiencing headwinds from "continued higher interest rates, pressured public and private markets, and elevated cash burn," Greg Becker, the CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, wrote to investors on Wednesday. As part of the closure, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the agency that helps insure customers' bank funds, has now taken control of SVB.

March 6 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 made little progress on Monday, closing slightly higher than its session low as U.S. Treasury yields pulled higher with investors braced for this week's testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the February jobs report. Rising bond yields tend to weigh on equity valuations, particularly those of growth and technology stocks, as higher rates reduce the value of future cash flows. "People are worried about the jobs number and the economic data because they're worried about what the Fed will do. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 2.72 points, or 0.07%, to end at 4,048.36 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 12.59 points, or 0.11%, to 11,676.41. Since Powell last spoke strong economic data and hotter than expected inflation have raised concerns the Fed will raise rates higher than expected or keep them higher for longer.

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