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☆ The best writing online about why Trump won, why Harris lost, and what it all means
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Theron Mohamed | Erin Snodgrass | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +20 min

Commentators and academics have been weighing in on why Donald Trump won the US election. The images of him bleeding after a failed assassination attempt became the symbol of what supporters saw as a campaign of destinyHow Mr. Trump won is also the story of how Ms. Harris lost. Laurel Duggan, UnHerdWhy white women stuck with TrumpAdvertisementThe abortion issue had seemingly little impact on Republicans's performance with white women in this cycle. Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and author of the Silver Bulletin newsletterSilver republished a lengthy blog post from late October with the new title "24 reasons that Trump won." Nate Silver offered up 24 reasons why Trump won.

Persons: Donald Trump, —, There's, Donald Trump's, They've, Kamala Harris, Frank Bruni, Let's, Harris, aren't, Hannibal Lecter, Trump, Allysia Finley, Taylor Swift, Taylor, Swift, they'd, I'd, Sarah Baxter, Mueller, Francis Fukuyama, Ankush Khardori, Politico Trump, Shane Goldmacher, Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan, MAGA, Biden's, John Burn, Alexandra Ulmer, Gram Slattery, Elon Musk, Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen, Axios, David Weigel, Annie Lowrey, Biden, Gerard Baker, Hitler, Laurel Duggan, UnHerd, Sen, Chuck Schumer, Todd Landman, Evan Vucci Steve Hanke, Ronald Reagan, Steve Hanke, Reagan, Steve Hanke Nate Cohn, Tina Fordham, Trump's, Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight, AP Matthew Yglesias, Yglesias, overperform electorally, Dominic Sandbrook, Sandbrook, Hillary Clinton, Tom Williams, Eric Cortellessa, Musk, Eric Cortellessa's Organizations: Service, Democratic, The New York Times Democrats, Trump, Street, Democrats Get, demeaned, Democrats, Financial, Republican, Biden, The New York Times, Trump Won, Republican Party, Britain's, Reuters Trump, White, Republicans —, Trump Republicans, Semafor, The Atlantic Voters, The, Democrat, Republicans, University of Nottingham, AP, Johns Hopkins University, Silver Locations: Trump, Ukraine, White, London, Florida, South Dakota, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Washington, New York City, San Francisco, Israel, California

In late-September reports, strategists at J.P. Morgan and Fitch Ratings had predicted two additional interest rate trims by the end of 2024 and expect such reductions to continue into 2025. The CME Group's FedWatch tool puts the probability of a 25-basis-point cut at this week's November meeting at 98%. The current probability of the benchmark rate being taken down by another 25 basis points at the December meeting is 78%. "The end of financial repression, of zero interest rates and zero inflation, that era is over. Interest rates will be higher, will be challenged around the world.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Saudi Arabia —, aren't, Morgan, CNBC's Sara Eisen —, Goldman Sachs, Carlyle, Morgan Stanley, Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton, Larry Fink, " Fink, David Solomon, Ted Pick, Pick, Francis Fukuyama Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, Wall, Federal Reserve, Fed, Fitch, Saudi, Future Investment Initiative, Standard Chartered, CNBC, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Reuters RIYADH, Saudi Arabia, U.S, BlackRock

☆ Morgan Stanley CEO says the era of zero interest rates and inflation 'is over'
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

RIYADH — The days of easy money and zero interest rates are firmly in the past, Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick said Tuesday, speaking at a panel of finance CEOs in Riyadh. "The end of financial repression, of zero interest rates and zero inflation, that era is over. Interest rates will be higher, will be challenged around the world. And the end of 'the end of history' — geopolitics are back and will be part of the challenge for decades to come," Pick said, referencing the famous 1992 Francis Fukuyama book, "The End of History and the Last Man," which argued that conflicts between nations and ideologies were a thing of the past with the ending of the Cold War. Repressed rates and easy monetary policy have been in the rearview mirror since 2022, when — after slashing rates to near zero to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic — the Federal Reserve cranked its benchmark rate up by around 500 basis points over the course of 18 months.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Ted Pick, Pick, Francis Fukuyama Organizations: Federal Reserve Locations: RIYADH, Riyadh

Editor’s Note: In this appeal to Congress, more than 35 artists, activists, scholars and others call for funding for Ukraine. On territory that Russia occupies, it tortures Ukrainian citizens, kidnaps Ukrainian children and murders Ukrainian leaders. By fighting Russia alone, they protect Europe. By fighting a conventional war against a nuclear power, they are making nuclear proliferation and nuclear war less likely. Together we call upon Congress to do the right thing – right now.

Persons: Read, Stringer, Abrams, José Andrés, Gabrielle Carteris, Mona Charen, Misha Collins, Rosario Dawson, Felicia Day, Doug Fears, Jonathan Safran Foer, Francis Fukuyama, Mark Hamill, Gale Anne Hurd, Dara Khosrowshahi, William Kristol, Eric Edelman, Scott Kelly, Daniel Lubetzky, Michael McFaul, Kate McKinnon, Alyssa Milano, Viggo Mortensen, Patton Oswalt, Phillips O’Brien, Brad Paisley, Sean Penn, Serhii Plokhii, Ivanna Sakhno, Eric Schmidt, Liev Schreiber, Timothy Snyder, Terrell Jermaine Starr, Barbra Streisand, Hilary Swank, Peter Wehner, Katheryn Winnick Organizations: Ukraine, CNN, Getty Locations: Russia, Russian, Crimean Tatars, Ukrainian, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Aleppo, Grozny, Europe, Donetsk, Ukraine, AFP, China, Beijing, Asia, East, Africa, United States

☆ Opinion | The G.O.P. Bumper Sticker: Trump First. Putin Second. America Third.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Thomas L. Friedman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Every so often there is a piece of legislation on Capitol Hill that defines America and its values — that shows what kind of country we want to be. Will America carry the red, white and blue flag into the future — or just a white flag? Given the pessimistic talk coming out of the Capitol, it is looking more and more like the white flag — autographed by Donald Trump. bumper sticker: Trump First. … The hard-core MAGA wing represents a minority within a minority, yet our institutional rules permit them to veto decisions clearly favored by a majority of Americans.”

Persons: America, Donald Trump, ” “, Vladimir Putin, Trump, Today’s, Putin, Francis Fukuyama, “, ” Organizations: Capitol, Washington, Republican Party, ” “ Trump, America, Purpose, MAGA Locations: America, Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel, United States

☆ The Debate Over How Dangerous Trump Rages On - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Thomas B. Edsall | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

As the parties have grown racially, religiously, and socially distant from one another, a new kind of social discord has been growing. The increasing political divide has allowed political, public, electoral, and national norms to be broken with little to no consequence. Institutions that empower partisan minorities can become instruments of minority rule. And they are especially dangerous when they are in the hands of extremist or antidemocratic partisan minorities. Its political system spreads power out very broadly, in ways that give many individual players the power to stop things.

Persons: Lilliana Mason, Johns Hopkins, Trump, ”, Steven Levitsky, Daniel Ziblatt, “ Vetocracy, ” Francis Fukuyama, Stanford’s, Fukuyama, ” Fukuyama Organizations: American, Harvard, Constitution, Global, Politics Today, Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, House Republicans Locations: America, U.S

☆ What the West Loses by Trading With Dictatorships
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Mathias Döpfner | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Officials from the EU and China celebrate the agreement admitting China to the World Trade Organization, May 2000. Photo: Alain BUU/Gamma-Rapho/Getty ImagesIn 1989, the political scientist Francis Fukuyama declared the end of history: “What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of postwar history, but the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.” Today we have to acknowledge: Fukuyama was wrong.

Persons: Alain BUU, Francis Fukuyama, Fukuyama Organizations: EU, China, World Trade Organization Locations: China

☆ Big Histories for the Big Future
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Francis Fukuyama | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Worse, the path to safety is not clear; simply getting past the next election without the democratic system grinding to a halt seems like a big achievement. Both authors had predicted, by a decade or more, that a period of great crisis would arrive around 2020, though neither foresaw a pandemic. He proposes a cyclical scheme of societal rise and subsequent disintegration based on a “wealth pump,” whereby elites get richer and ever more entrenched. Inequality, if left unchecked, grows to the point that the system fragments and has to be rebuilt from the ground up. Such is the situation today in America, where oligarchy has become so extreme that a huge redistribution of power needs to take place.

Persons: Neil Howe, Peter Turchin, Neil Howe’s “, Peter Turchin’s Organizations: Elites Locations: Ukraine, America

☆ Opinion | The American Empire in the Fog of Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ross Douthat | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

In a critique of the political thinker James Burnham, penned in the wake of World War II, George Orwell wrote:Power worship blurs political judgment because it leads, almost unavoidably, to the belief that present trends will continue. Whoever is winning at the moment will always seem to be invincible. But a war that seems stalemated, that grinds without dramatic shifts, poses a somewhat different challenge to political judgment; the observer is always tempted to discern a certain trend, a sweeping historical judgment, amid a state of ebb and flow and wartime fog. The war in Ukraine is a case study, yielding very different big-picture arguments based on developments from month to month and even week to week. The same pattern applies to analysis of how the war fits in the global power picture.

Persons: James Burnham, George Orwell, Orwell, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Samuel Huntington’s, Francis Fukuyama’s Locations: South Asia, Asia, Tobruk, Cairo, Berlin, London, Ukraine

☆ Georgia's former president says he's dying in prison because of Putin, and calls on the US to save his life
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( John Haltiwanger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Georgia's ex-president, Mikheil Saakashvili, said he is dying in prison. Saakashvili is asking the US and its allies to help save his life by applying international pressure. He also warned that Georgia's government is "sliding toward the Kremlin." Georgia 'sliding toward the Kremlin'In his Politico op-ed, Saakashvili described himself as a "political prisoner" who continues to "defend democracy against Putin and his allies." Saakashvili warned that Georgia and other countries in the region "have continued sliding toward the Kremlin" amid Russia's ongoing and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

☆ Sfârşitul Erei Nucleare: Rusia iese din paritatea strategică cu SUA
▼ + stars: | 2020-05-25 | by ( Iulian Chifu | ) adevarul.ro time to read: +14 min

Punctul cel mai fierbinte a fost în 1962, criza rachetelor din Cuba, apoi Războiul Rece a fost dominat de echilibrul terorii, de distrugerea reciproc asigurată între marile puteri, iar din 1985, de cursa înarmărilor. Mai mult, ambiţiile nemăsurate comparative cu postura strategică reală a Rusiei lui Putin au început să se vadă iar aspiraţiile Rusiei să prezinte sincope majore. Rusia a căzut economic la nivelul PIB-ului Olandei, ulterior la nivelul celui al Spaniei, iar astăzi schimbarea previzibilă a epocii petrolului periclitează şi mai mult poziţiile sale. De această dată, la 16 mai ţinta a fost un avion în zbor, un avion fără pilot, desigur. Şi paritatea Rusiei cu SUA dispare, atât de pe hârtie, din tratate, cât şi cea din realitate, de pe teren, dispare cu aceeaşi ocazie.

Persons: Donald Trump, preşedintelui Putin, Churchill, Fulton, George Kennan, Francis Fukuyama, Statele Unite . Putin îşi, Putin, Ronald Reagan, George Lucas, evoluţia, Putin ., Vladislav, furnituri Organizations: Securitate, ONU, Navy, USS, Semnificaţia Locations: SUA, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Europei, URSS, Cuba, Rece, Uniunea Sovietică, Rusă, Statele Unite, Rusia, Rusiei, Olandei, Spaniei, Arabia Saudită, Europa, Abhazia, Osetia de Sud, Georgia, Crimeii, China, Persic, USS, Golful Persic, Portland, Pacific, sovietic, Kremlin, Chinei, UE, Japonia, India, timonă

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