The European Central Bank (ECB), which supervises euro zone banks, believes some lenders have overly optimistic assumptions about the economy, based on models that cannot fully capture the damage from the current bout of inflation, the sources say. Source: S&P Global-EBAMorgan Stanley estimates euro zone banks will pay out 40 billion euros ($40 billion) in 2022 dividends plus an additional 60 billion euros in share buybacks between this year and next - an outsized return by recent standards. "It's not a good idea to pay out capital during a recession," Intesa's Chief Executive Carlo Messina told analysts last week. "With the economy entering recession, the time of massive bank payouts is over," Marco Troiano, a managing director at Scope Ratings, said. "Running down capital cushions would weaken banks."

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