“The overall trend is unmistakable: The far right is gaining ground,” said Matthijs Rooduijn, a politics professor at the University of Amsterdam. But recent elections have seen the far right increasingly usurp centrist conservatives as the main right-wing force. “But that potential upper limit just keeps increasing.”The far right is “no longer second fiddle to the main right-wing party. Centrists can sometimes cobble together coalitions to keep out the far right — even if those parties are smaller individually. Whereas in France, Le Pen was kept from victory in June-July parliamentary elections by an intricate network of tactical voting between erstwhile rivals.

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