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watch nowThe European Central Bank delivered an expected quarter-point interest rate cut this week — and alongside the announcement came several indications that rates will swiftly move even lower early next year. Economists also jumped on the removal of the ECB's message that the central bank must "keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary." She also said that a larger, half-point cut had been debated, and that Governing Council (GC) members unanimously voted to reduce rates. The ECB cut the deposit facility — its key rate — to 3% on Thursday. What constitutes the neutral rate has been a key point of debate in recent months, and Lagarde said Thursday that while it had not been discussed at the December meeting, staff saw it between 1.75% and 2.5%.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Robert Holzmann —, , Holzmann, Lagarde, Francois Villeroy de Galhau Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters Locations: Frankfurt, Austrian
Mārtiņš Kazāks, Bank of Latviawatch nowOn a 50-basis-point rate cut: "Well, everything should be on the table, you know, given what the data tells us. Klaas Knot, Netherlands central bankwatch now"Are we risking a structural undershoot of our inflation target? Joachim Nagel, German central bankwatch nowOn rate cuts: "This discussion about 25 or maybe something different is not helpful. On rate cuts: "The direction is clear. Gediminas Šimkus, Bank of Lithuaniawatch nowOn rate cuts: "We are clearly moving ... towards the direction of easing monetary policy.
Persons: Karen Tso, Pierre Wunsch, I'm, we've, Mario Centeno, Klaas, It's, Robert Holzmann, Joachim Nagel, disinflation, Volcker, Olli Rehn, it's, Gediminas Šimkus, Boris Vujčić Organizations: European Central Bank, International Monetary, Bank of Latvia, National Bank of Belgium, Bank of Portugal, Austrian National Bank, Bank of France, Bank of Finland, Bank of Lithuania, Croatian National Bank Locations: Washington ,, Kazāks, Netherlands, German, Galhau, Europe
European flags flutter in front of the European Central Bank (ECB) building prior to a news conference following the meeting of the governing council of the ECB in Frankfurt/Main, Germany, on September 12, 2024. Daniel Roland | Afp | Getty ImagesThe European Central Bank is on course to deliver its third interest rate cut of the year at its meeting this Thursday, as policymakers say inflation risks are easing faster than previously expected. Headline price rises in the euro area cooled to 1.8% in September, below the central bank's 2% target. Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau last week described an October rate cut as "very likely" and said such a step "won't be the last." This led him to forecast ECB rate cuts will take place both this week and at each of the central bank's forthcoming meetings, until the deposit rate hits 2.5%.
Persons: Daniel Roland, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Villeroy, Christine Lagarde, Joachim Nagel, Germany's Bundesbank, Jack Allen Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Afp, Getty, Bank of France, France, European Union, Citi, Media, U.S, U.S . Federal, Barclays, Capital Economics, Reynolds, Bank of America Global Research Locations: Frankfurt, Main, Germany, U.S .
European stock markets are set to open sharply lower Friday, rounding off a week in which escalating tensions in the Middle East and repricing of interest rate expectations have been in focus. After a strong start to 2024, the index is heading for its first monthly loss of the year in April. In the latest back-and-forth between the countries, Israel launched a limited direct military attack on Iranian soil early Friday morning. Investors are monitoring a slew of commentary on the path of interest rates emerging from the International Monetary Fund's Spring Meetings in New York. But markets have become significantly less confident there will be a June cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve or Bank of England, after two hotter-than-expected inflation prints.
Persons: François Villeroy de Galhau, Christine Lagarde Organizations: International, European Central Bank, CNBC, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England Locations: Israel, New York
The ECB opted to hold rates steady in April and next meets to vote on monetary policy on June 6. Christine Lagarde, president of the ECBThe ECB's figurehead delivered a firm message that reflected her statements in recent press conferences: markets should expect an interest rate cut soon, barring major surprises. watch nowGabriel Makhlouf, governor of the Central Bank of IrelandMakhlouf said the most recent data sets had shifted his view on rates. "We don't follow the Fed... and now the ECB will be the central bank to be followed," Šimkus said. One could have cut rates way back in March or even April," he continued, adding that he hoped a majority of Governing Council members would back a June cut.
Persons: Kirill Kudryavtsev, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Galhau, Villeroy, Karen Tso, Joachim Nagel, Germany's, Nagel, Robert Holzmann, Mario Centeno, Centeno, Gabriel Makhlouf, Central Bank of Ireland Makhlouf, we've, Makhlouf, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, Boris Vujčić, Jerome Powell, Vujčić, Gediminas Šimkus, Bank of Lithuania Šimkus, Šimkus, Edward Scicluna, Central Bank of Malta Scicluna, Kazāks, Bank of Latvia Kazāks, Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: Afp, Getty, International, European Central Bank, CNBC, ECB, Bank of France, Council, Austrian Central Bank One, Bank of Portugal, Central Bank of Ireland, National Bank of, Croatian National Bank, Federal, U.S, Bank of Lithuania, Central Bank of, Governing, Bank of Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, New York, ECB's, National Bank of Belgium, U.S, Europe, Central Bank of Malta, Bank of Latvia, Bank of Finland
The job is not yet done,” François Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of France’s central bank, said this week in Davos. Those “upside risks to inflation” include supply chain fragmentation, trade protectionism, climate shocks and armed conflicts, according to Gopinath. As soon as central banks start lowering interest rates “people feel better, they start spending more,” she said. Now the bank has to keep interest rates high “for as long as necessary” to put inflation firmly on the path back to 2%, she added. Meanwhile, container shipping costs along many of the world’s busiest trade routes have doubled — and in some cases tripled — since the middle of December, according to data from London-based shipping consultancy Drewry.
Persons: Sergio Ermotti, , “ It’s, Galhau, Gita Gopinath, Francois Villeroy de, Stefan Wermuth, Gopinath, Mary Callahan Erdoes, Christine Lagarde, , Joe Biden, Vincent Clerc, CNN’s Richard Quest, Tobias Meyer, ” Robert North Organizations: London CNN, UBS, Economic, Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Bloomberg, Getty, JPMorgan, Central Bank, IMF, Oxford University, Drewry, Oxford Economics, Maersk, DHL Locations: Iran, Africa, Davos, Switzerland, Red, United States, Europe, United Kingdom, France’s, Israel, Pakistan, British, Yemen, Suez, London, Asia
French central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau stressed that it was not possible to say in which season the European Central Bank may cut interest rates this year. But...we are not calendar driven, we are data-driven," he said during a CNBC-moderated panel event at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. On the path of inflation, he added: "It's too early to declare victory … the job is not yet done. That said, interest rate tightening has been quite successful so far, more successful than we thought even at Davos one year ago." "What we can see on both sides of the Atlantic is something like a soft landing so far."
Persons: François Villeroy, Galhau, — Jenni Reid Organizations: European Central Bank, CNBC, Economic Locations: Davos, Switzerland
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB's de Galhau says monetary tightening has been more successful than expectedGovernor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, discusses the potential for interest rate cuts and the transmission of monetary policy.
Persons: Galhau, François Organizations: Bank of France
Euro zone inflation tumbled to 2.4% last month from above 10% a year earlier after a record string of rate hikes. Schnabel, who had insisted just a month ago that rate hikes must remain an option because the "last mile" of the inflation fight may be the toughest, said she had shifted stance after three unexpectedly benign inflation readings in a row. "The most recent inflation number has made a further rate increase rather unlikely." "The recent inflation print has given me more confidence that we will be able to come back to 2% no later than 2025." Schnabel said weak growth as a result of the ECB's rate hikes is helping the inflation fight but that a deep or prolonged recession is unlikely, with recent survey data supporting expectations for a recovery.
Persons: Isabel Schnabel, Jim Urquhart, Schnabel, John Maynard Keynes, Christine Lagarde, Francois Villeroy de, Yannis Stournaras, Joachim Nagel, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Teton, Jackson, REUTERS, Rights, ECB, Reuters, Bank of Greece, Thomson Locations: Jackson , Wyoming, U.S, French, Francois Villeroy de Galhau
Morning Bid: Watching what the ECB giveth
  + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan. The forward-looking flash November PMIs due out globally should help investors assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts will begin. Interest rate futures show the market is pricing in rate cuts by April and more aggressively so in June . Later on Thursday, Sweden's central bank will announce its latest policy decision in what is expected to be a very close call on whether to hike again. A Reuters poll showed 10 of 19 economists looked for a rise, while market pricing is leaning against a move.
Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, haven't, Mario Centeno, Joachim Nagel's, Christine Lagarde's, Jeremy Hunt's, Van Haaren, ECB's Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, Francois Villeroy de, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Vidya, European Central, PMI, ECB, Reuters, Ubezpieczen SA, Virgin Money, Bank of France, Thomson Locations: Japan, United States, Britain, U.S, Sweden's
ECB rates to stay unchanged for next few quarters -Villeroy
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank's interest rates have reached a plateau where they will likely remain for the next few quarters, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday, dismissing rate cut talk as premature. The ECB broke a streak of 10 consecutive hikes last month by holding rates steady, prompting investors to turn their attention to when rate cuts could come. The ECB aims to steer euro zone inflation towards its 2% target by 2025, though Villeroy insisted the number was an average and he was not fixated on hitting 2.0% precisely. Euro zone inflation has fallen quickly in recent months as the economy has slowed, though Villeroy said a recession could be avoided and a "soft landing" seemed more likely. ($1 = 0.9168 euros)Reporting by David Milliken, writing by Leigh Thomas, editing by Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Sarah Meyssonnier, Villeroy, David Milliken, Leigh Thomas, Christina Fincher Organizations: France, Bank of France, REUTERS, ECB, Society of Professional, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, French, London, Gaza, Israel
Morning Bid: Thanksgiving starters of AI and oil
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Thanksgiving may make for a clipped U.S. markets week, but there's plenty to chew on around the world before then - and a feast of intrigue in the artificial intelligence space. His plans include shutting the central bank, ditching the peso and dollarizing the economy and slashing spending with potentially painful reforms. The risk premium between German and Italian 10-year yields tightened to 170 bps - the lowest since Sept. 21.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Sam Altman, That's, thrall, Javier Milei, Milei, Jeremy Hunt, Andrew Bailey ,, Francois Villeroy de, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Big Tech, Nvidia, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank, Bayer, Federal Reserve Bank of England, Andrew Bailey , Bank of France, Bank of Spain, Technologies, Keysight Technologies, Holdings Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, OPEC, Tokyo, Europe, Canada, Francois Villeroy de Galhau
Euro zone inflation could tick up in coming months: Lagarde
  + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
FRANKFURT, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation could tick up in the coming months but European Central Bank interest rates held at their current level at least for several quarters could still get price growth back to 2%, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Friday. "There will be a resurgence of probably higher numbers going forwards and we should be expecting that," Lagarde told a Financial Times event. Still, Lagarde hinted that even if inflation picks up, another rate hike may not be needed. When asked what long enough means, Lagarde said no change should be expected in the "next couple of quarters". Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; editing by Christina Fincher, Tomasz Janowski and David EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Philip Lane, Balazs Koranyi, Christina Fincher, Tomasz Janowski, David Evans Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, Financial, European Union, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, French
MARRAKECH, Oct 13 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymakers are planning a springtime push to cut interest payments made to commercial banks, in part to recoup some of the costs associated with a decade worth of stimulus, sources familiar with discussions said. That would mean overall interest payments to lenders - which still earn the ECB deposit rate, currently 4%, on other excess cash parked with the central bank - would be reduced further. But the ECB rejected the proposal in July, partly on resistance from its Executive Board, the sources said. The board's key argument is that excess liquidity is distributed unevenly across the euro zone and raising the ratio would put an excessive burden on smaller banks with a larger portion of deposits. Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing argued that the change would add to banks' financial burdens and restrict their lending options.
Persons: Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, Robert Holzmann, Latvia's Martin Kazaks, Isabel Schnabel, Austria's Holzmann, France's Francois Villeroy de, Pierre Wunsch, We're, Schnabel, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing, Tom Sims, John Stonestreet Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, Austrian, Barclays, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian, Thomson Locations: MARRAKECH
Robert Holzmann, governor of Austria's central bank, speaks during an event in Vienna, Austria, on Tuesday, Sept. 26, 2023. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAustrian central bank Governor Robert Holzmann said the European Central Bank could implement one or two further interest rate increases, if there are "additional shocks" to the economy. watch nowThe European Central Bank opted to hike interest rates to a record in September, continuing a cycle that has lasted almost two years. In a market-moving statement in mid-September, the ECB also indicated that further hikes may be off the table for now. He added that there was a "clear downward trend" in prices, in an interview with franceinfo, as translated by CNBC.
Persons: Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Holzmann's, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, franceinfo Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, European Central Bank, CNBC, International Monetary, Bank, ECB Locations: Austria's, Vienna, Austria, Marrakech
Fresh fruit on display at a produce stall inside a covered market in central Madrid, Spain, on Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2023. Annual inflation in the euro zone cooled to its lowest level since October 2021, falling to 4.3% in September, flash figures showed Friday. The bank's most recent macroeconomic projections for the euro area anticipate inflation will average 5.6% this year, falling to 3.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Annual price rises in Germany, the biggest euro zone economy, remain well above target at 4.3%, as it also struggles with an economic contraction. Estimates from Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency, put headline inflation harmonized across euro zone nations at 5.6% in France and 3.2% in Spain for September, as Slovakia and Slovenia suffer with inflation of 8.9% and 7.1%.
Persons: , Francois Villeroy de Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, CNBC, Eurostat Locations: Madrid, Spain, Germany, France, Slovakia, Slovenia
Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the yen to an almost 11-month high on Monday following last week's gains, keeping traders focused on Japan intervention risks. The Japanese currency remained within striking distance of 150, a level which some market watchers saw as a line in the sand that would spur forex intervention from Japanese authorities similar to that of last year. A yen overshooting would be seen by many as a catalyst for renewed interventions to strengthen the Japanese currency, similarly to last year, she added. EURO FACES GROWTH FEARSThe euro edged 0.1% lower to $1.0633, moving towards a six-month low of $1.0615 touched on Friday against a stronger dollar.
Persons: Florence Lo, Kazuo Ueda, Esther Reichelt, Nick Rees, we've, Reichelt, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Sterling, Joice Alves, Alun John, Ed Osmond, Bernadette Baum Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Commerzbank, Federal Reserve, FX, Monex, SBB, European Central Bank, Bank, Thomson Locations: Japan, Swedish, Monex Europe, London
Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. In the broader currency market, the dollar steadied after last week's gains as the Federal Reserve surprised markets by signalling U.S. rates would need to stay higher for longer than initially expected. The yen was last flat at 148.38 per dollar after falling to its lowest level of 148.49 per dollar since late October. "It is possible of course that exactly such fears of interventions might have prevented a weaker yen for now". The dollar index , which on Friday touched an over six-month high, firmed at 105.64 and was last 0.1% higher.
Persons: Florence Lo, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Esther Reichelt, Reichelt, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Sterling, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Ed Osmond Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank, Thomson Locations: Japan, London, Singapore
A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Heiko Becker//File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsPARIS, Sept 25 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank has reached the point where it needs to be wary of raising interest rates too high and should try to avoid a hard landing of the economy, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday. The ECB raised its main interest rate to a record high 4% this month after 10 successive hikes, but signalled a pause in October. Villeroy said that the risk of doing too much - and possibly triggering a recession - and the risk of doing too little were now symmetrically balanced after the string of rate hikes. If the ECB did too much, the central bank could run the risk of having to rapidly reverse course, he told a conference at the French central bank, which he also heads.
Persons: Heiko Becker, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Villeroy, Leigh Thomas, Toby Chopra Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Rights, ECB, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany
Morning Bid: Fed's hawkish pause keeps pressure on markets
  + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Global markets have been feeling the heat as U.S. bond yields surged and a strengthened dollar hit a six-month high following the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone last week. The euro zone central bank also struck a relatively dovish tone. But markets will have plenty of material to pore over this week as they try to glean future Fed moves. In the euro zone, ECB President Christine Lagarde kicks off a string of speeches and remarks this week. Markets are expecting that the euro zone's central bank is done hiking.
Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Brigid Riley, Neel Kashkari, Christine Lagarde, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Isabel Schnabel, Fed's Neel Kashkari, Edmund Klamann Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, Brigid, Brigid Riley Investors, Global, Federal Reserve, U.S, Minneapolis, China, HK, ECB policymaker, Bank of France, ECB, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S, Europe, Britain, Switzerland, Japan, China, Hollywood
It is "premature" to bet on a cut to interest rates, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, France's central bank governor, told CNBC, as market players consider whether the European Central Bank has reached peak rates. "We should remain at this level for a sufficiently long period of time," he told CNBC's Annette Weisbach exclusively on Monday. "Betting now on the next cut is probably premature." The ECB hiked rates once again earlier this month, bringing its main deposit rate to 4%. The benchmark rate stood at -0.5% in July 2022 before the central bank embarked on an intense rate hiking cycle in an effort to tackle high inflation.
Persons: Francois Villeroy de, CNBC's Annette Weisbach Organizations: CNBC, European Central Bank Locations: France's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCriticism of European Central Bank is unwarranted, says Bank of France's de GalhauFrançois Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Bank of France and ECB member, discusses his current perspectives on the European Central Bank's monetary policy.
Persons: Galhau Organizations: European Central Bank, France's, Bank of France, ECB, Central
Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau delivers a speech during the annual meeting of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises leaders at the Bank of France in Paris, France, October 22, 2021. "Gasoline consumption at the pump represents roughly 5% of our total consumption, so it is a small part of total inflation, even if it is what is most visible," he told France Inter radio. "I will say it again this morning, our forecast and our commitment is to bring inflation towards 2% by 2025," he added. Villeroy also reiterated that ECB rates were at a good level and called for patience. "We have passed the peak of inflation, there even seem to be a turnaround in underlying inflation (...) now we have to be perseverant, keep rates at this level for as long as it takes," he said.
Persons: Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Sarah Meyssonnier, Francois Villeroy de, Villeroy, Patience, Sybille de La Hamaide, Gilles Guillaume Our Organizations: France, Bank of France, REUTERS, Rights, European Central Bank, ECB, France Inter, Brent, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Ukraine
Central Bank Governor Yannis Stournaras poses for a photo in his office at the bank’s headquarters in Athens, Greece, October 22, 2021. REUTERS/Louiza Vradi Acquire Licensing RightsSept 17 (Reuters) - European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said governments must do their part in reining in consumer prices after borrowing costs reached a level that may well be their peak, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday. “Monetary policy has done its part to fight inflation,” Stournaras told Bloomberg in an interview, adding that now it was up to fiscal policy to "take out some of the heat." “A more restrictive fiscal stance wouldn’t only be a welcome strategic complement to ECB policy but also help improve the credibility of public debt and loosen the nexus with banks,” the Greek central bank chief said. Reporting by Kanjyik Ghosh in Bengaluru Editing by Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Central Bank Governor Yannis Stournaras, Louiza, Yannis Stournaras, ” Stournaras, wouldn’t, Stournaras, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Kanjyik Ghosh, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Central Bank Governor, REUTERS, Central Bank Governing, Bloomberg, ECB, Thomson Locations: Athens, Greece, reining, Bengaluru
But speaking on Wednesday, the last day before the ECB's self-imposed quiet period, the Dutch, French, German and Slovak central bank chiefs all said the Governing Council's decision was still open. France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau hinted that a fresh rate hike could still come at a later date and argued that the slowdown is not a recession and that the ECB needed to persevere in its fight with inflation. Slovakia's Peter Kazimir, an outspoken policy hawk, was more explicit, arguing that another hike was still needed to tame inflation. He said the ECB could delay a rate rise to one of its autumn meetings or pull the trigger next week. "It would be wrong to bet on a rapid decrease in interest rates after the peak," Nagel told German business daily Handelsblatt.
Persons: Nagel, France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Peter Kazimir, Kazimir, Klaas Knot, Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, " Nagel, Robert Holzmann, Mario Centeno, Akanksha Khushi, Catherine Evans Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, Bloomberg, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, PARIS, Slovak
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