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☆ Dollar down on day, but off lows after hotter than expected inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The headline U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month, for an annual gain of 3.4%, against expectations of 0.2% and 3.2%, respectively. Traders are pricing in aggressive expectations for rate cuts this year, with the Fed seen as beginning to cut rates in March. But "today's CPI report suggests that the Fed's initial rate cut may be later than the market is hoping for," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The question everyone is struggling with is what kind of inflation regime we are in - are we still in a 2010s era of low growth, low inflation and we're still just working through the end of the pandemic adjustment and then we're back into that?" The dollar index was last down 0.05% on the day at 102.29.

Persons: Bitcoin, Adam Button, Quincy Krosby, Button, it's, Loretta Mester, Thomas Barkin, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, Consumer, Index, Fed, ForexLive, Traders, Financial, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Wednesday Locations: Toronto, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S

☆ Canadian dollar posts biggest loss in 1 month as economy shrinks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto January 23, 2015. The loonie was trading 0.6% lower at 1.3595 to the U.S. dollar, or 73.56 U.S. cents, its biggest decline since Aug. 1. "The Bank of Canada's job is done," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. "The Canadian dollar is selling off because the debate will quickly shift to when rate cuts are coming. Separate data showed that the contraction in Canada's manufacturing sector gathered pace in August.

Persons: Mark Blinch, Adam Button, It's, Fergal Smith, Frances Kerry, Alison Williams Organizations: REUTERS, greenback, Canadian, U.S, of Canada, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Toronto, TORONTO, Canada

The U.S. dollar index was 0.097% higher on the day at 103.56, after hitting a two-month high of 103.59. The greenback has drawn support from a recent run of U.S. economic data reinforcing the view that interest rates will remain high for some time. The Australian dollar was last 0.44% lower at $0.64, having tumbled more than 0.9% to a trough of $0.6365 following the employment data release. The Norwegian crown rose from six-week lows against the dollar and the euro on Thursday after Norges Bank raised interest rates, as expected, and said it was likely to hike again in September. Against the dollar , the Norwegian crown was last up 0.22% to 10.60, having hit 10.66 earlier in the session.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Adam Button, it's, Kathy Lien, Sterling, BoE, Hannah Lang, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Angus MacSwan, Kirsten Donovan, Alexandra Hudson, Sandra Maler Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Investors, U.S, Fed, Bank of Japan, Zealand, Norges Bank, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Norwegian, Washington, London, Singapore

☆ C$ hits 3-week low as 'cracks' emerge in Canada's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie," is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto, January 23, 2015. "The (U.S.) dollar is reasserting itself as the champion of the currency market and the Canadian dollar is just caught in that wave," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. S&P Global's measure of Canadian manufacturing activity edged higher last month to 49.6 from 48.8 in June. Canada's employment report for July, due on Friday, could offer further clues on the strength of domestic activity. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, edged lower on signs of profit-taking after a rally in July.

Persons: Mark Blinch, Adam Button, Fergal Smith, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, greenback, PMI, Canadian, U.S, ., Thomson Locations: Toronto, TORONTO, U.S

☆ BOJ tweak stirs yen volatility; dollar stays down after US data
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. Whipsawing as traders digested the decision, the Japanese yen weakened 1.13% versus the greenback and was last at 141.05 per dollar in the New York afternoon session. U.S. annual inflation in June increased by the smallest amount in more than two years, with underlying price pressures moderating. CENTRAL BANK WEEKEarlier this week, the Fed and the European Central Bank announced interest-rate hikes, as expected. The ECB raised the possibility of a pause in September as inflation pressures show tentative signs of easing with recession worries mounting.

Persons: Florence Lo, Karl Schamotta, Adam Button, Jerome Powell, Sterling, bitcoin, Laura Matthews, Amanda Cooper, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Jonathan Oatis, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, New York, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, ForexLive, Federal, CENTRAL, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Whipsawing, New, Corpay, Toronto, Japan, Bank of Japan, New York, London, Singapore

☆ BOJ tweak stirs yen volatility; dollar down after U.S. data
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After chopping and changing direction as traders digested the BOJ decision, the Japanese yen weakened 0.70% versus the greenback to 140.43 per dollar in early New York trading session. "This may be the first step towards a credibility crisis for the Bank of Japan and that is really dangerous. This is the first wobble, and the Bank of Japan cannot afford to lose any of its credibility. "The market has largely moved past the inflation story at the moment, and you can see that in today's data," said Button. Earlier this week, the Fed and the European Central Bank hiked policy rates by 25 basis points, as expected.

Persons: Adam Button, Jerome Powell, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Bank of Japan, Bank of, ForexLive, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: New York, Bank of Japan, Toronto

☆ Dollar clings to gains with central banks in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The euro was down 0.49% at $1.1069 while sterling was last trading at $1.2823, down 0.25% on the day, kicking off a busy week for central bank meetings with investors expecting rate hikes in Europe and the United States. The Fed concludes a meeting on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) a day later and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday, as well as earnings from many heavyweight companies. The BOJ is the most likely of the three central banks to throw up a market-moving surprise, traders say, with a tweak to its yield curve control policy seen as a possibility. "There's a deep sense of unease around what might come next from the Bank of Japan," said ForexLive's Button.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Adam Button, John Velis, ForexLive's Button, bitcoin, Laura Matthews, Alun John, Tom Westbrook, David Holmes, Jacqueline Wong, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, ForexLive, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Investors, ECB, Fed, BNY Mellon, Reuters, Thomson Locations: York, Europe, Toronto, U.S, United States, Americas, New York

☆ Canadian dollar hits 2-week low as rate hike bets recede
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The loonie was trading 0.5% lower at 1.3250 to the greenback, or 75.47 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since June 15 at 1.3276. "The market is losing confidence that the Bank of Canada will hike again next month," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. Money markets see a 55% chance of a rate hike at the Bank of Canada's next policy decision on July 12, down from 64% before data on Tuesday that showed inflation easing to its slowest pace in two years. "The Bank of Canada is going to see economic weakness developing in Canada." One potential measure of support for the loonie was a rebound in the price of oil, one of Canada's major exports.

Persons: Adam Button, Button, Jerome Powell, Fergal Smith, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: greenback, Canadian, U.S, Bank of Canada, Bank of, of Canada, U.S ., Thomson Locations: TORONTO, Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada's, Canada

☆ Dollar weakens, euro edges higher after inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Labor Department data showed April inflation cooled to 4.9%, the smallest year-over-year increase in two years. However, so-called core inflation remained sticky at 5.5%, suggesting interest rates may need to stay high for some time to tame it. "The U.S. dollar did soften modestly on the news that core U.S. CPI inflation edges a little lower in April. Economists polled by Reuters expected core U.S. consumer prices to rise 5.5% on a year-on-year basis for April. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a pause before expected rate cuts in September.

☆ Instant View: Fed hikes another 25 basis points, hints it may be the last increase
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

TOM GARRETSON, STRATEGIST, RBC PORTFOLIO ADVISORY GROUP, MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA"It was a pretty dovish rate hike today. The expectations were that it might be a bit more of a hawkish rate hike in terms of leaving the door open to further hikes if needed." "The updated language in the policy statement does suggest the bar is going to be quite high for further rate hikes. … The market is hoping or expecting the Fed to pause after this rate hike. From a consumer credit perspective, the impact of further rate hikes will likely continue to be felt by borrowers across a range of industries.

"The bank run has abated for the moment, but that might be contingent on what the Fed signals today," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto. "The risk is that the (Federal Open Market Committee) shatters the fragile calm in markets today... by acting too aggressively." The Fed meeting concludes on Wednesday with the 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) release of a policy statement followed half an hour later by a news conference by Powell. Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC, said the focus will be on how the Fed communicates its forward guidance, in particular "the higher for longer" rhetoric. The Japanese yen weakened 0.20% to 132.80 per dollar, while the Australian dollar rose 0.07% to $0.667.

☆ Dollar jumps as Powell flags higher terminal rate
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Powell also said that the Fed is prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes if data indicates it is warranted. That comes after the bank slowed the pace of its tightening to 25 basis points at its last two meetings, following larger hikes last year. "Powell is explicitly talking about a higher target for interest rates. Fed funds futures traders raised bets that the Fed will hike rates by 50 basis points at its March 21-22 meeting to 56% after Powell's comments. A 25 basis points increase is now seen as a 44% probability.

☆ Dollar falls to nine-month low as Powell notes progress in disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The dollar extended losses on Wednesday and fell to a nine-month low against a basket of currencies after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke of making progress in bringing down inflation pressures, even as the U.S. central bank warned of further monetary policy tightening. He also noted progress on disinflation, which he said is in its early stages, and said the Fed will continue to make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. The Fed's last "dot plot" in December showed that Fed officials expected the rate to rise above 5%. The dollar fell as low as 101.03 against a basket of currencies , the lowest since April 22. (USAVGE=ECI), (USAVHE=ECI)The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England are both expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday.

☆ U.S. dollar down, still set for best year since 2015
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Hannah Lang | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

As 2022 draws to a close, the dollar was set to notch a 7.9% annual gain against a basket of currencies - its biggest annual jump in seven years. "If it's weak growth, the U.S. dollar will fall. The British pound was last up 0.09% at $1.2063, on pace for a 10.8% annual drop . The Australian dollar, seen as a liquid proxy for risk appetite, was up 0.41% on the day at $0.681 , but set to drop 6.4% on the year overall. The Bank of Japan's ultra-dovish stance has the dollar set to gain 13.7% versus the yen this year, in the yen's worst performance since 2013.

With liquidity lower due to holidays, the dollar index was down around 0.308% on the day at 103.650 . The euro was up 0.22% on the day to $1.0684 , on track for a 6% annual loss versus the dollar, compared with last year's 7% drop. The British pound was last up 0.21% at $1.2077, set for a 10.7% annual drop . It was set for an 8.6% annual drop, hurt by dollar strength and a domestic economic slowdown. The Bank of Japan's ultra-dovish stance has seen the dollar gain 14.5% versus the yen so far this year, in the yen's worst performance since 2013.

☆ Recent weakness in the strong dollar is a welcome development for multinational Club stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The dollar has run into a brick wall in November, a potentially hopeful sign for multinational Club stocks that have seen their earnings dented because of the U.S. currency's strength this year. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has declined more than 5% to around the 107 level since settling at nearly 113 on Nov. 3. However, the dollar index, which measures against six other currencies including the Japanese yen and the euro, is still up more than 10% compared with this time in 2021. Even though currency considerations don't factor into our long-term investment theses , the strong dollar has been a thorn in the side of many Club stocks in 2022. But it's important to understand near-term dynamics because we've seen how the strong U.S. dollar has pinched profits at Club stocks like P & G, Apple (AAPL), Salesforce (CRM) and more.

The dollar index rose less than expected in October prompted bets the Fed would scale back its hefty interest rate hikes. Waller did say that the Fed could now start thinking about hiking at a slower pace. The comments, however, poured cold water on investor hopes for a "rapid Fed recalibration," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto. The euro fell 0.24% against the dollar to $1.0322, after rising to a three-month high during Asian trading hours. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies including the euro, yen, and sterling, rose 0.74% to 107.072.

☆ Dollar dips as UK budget U-turn improves market sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

British Pound Sterling and U.S. Dollar notes are seen in this June 22, 2017 illustration photo. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterBritish gilts rallied sharply after the news, helping to also send U.S. Treasury yields lower. Hunt replaced Kwasi Kwarteng, whose package of unfunded tax cuts on Sept. 23 unleashed a bond market sell-off. "For now, the market seems happy to give the new chancellor time and space to put the government's house back in order," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG. Traders are also on watch for any intervention from the Bank of Japan after the yen fell to a 32-year low.

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