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☆ The best writing online about why Trump won, why Harris lost, and what it all means
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Theron Mohamed | Erin Snodgrass | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +20 min

Commentators and academics have been weighing in on why Donald Trump won the US election. The images of him bleeding after a failed assassination attempt became the symbol of what supporters saw as a campaign of destinyHow Mr. Trump won is also the story of how Ms. Harris lost. Laurel Duggan, UnHerdWhy white women stuck with TrumpAdvertisementThe abortion issue had seemingly little impact on Republicans's performance with white women in this cycle. Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and author of the Silver Bulletin newsletterSilver republished a lengthy blog post from late October with the new title "24 reasons that Trump won." Nate Silver offered up 24 reasons why Trump won.

Persons: Donald Trump, —, There's, Donald Trump's, They've, Kamala Harris, Frank Bruni, Let's, Harris, aren't, Hannibal Lecter, Trump, Allysia Finley, Taylor Swift, Taylor, Swift, they'd, I'd, Sarah Baxter, Mueller, Francis Fukuyama, Ankush Khardori, Politico Trump, Shane Goldmacher, Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan, MAGA, Biden's, John Burn, Alexandra Ulmer, Gram Slattery, Elon Musk, Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen, Axios, David Weigel, Annie Lowrey, Biden, Gerard Baker, Hitler, Laurel Duggan, UnHerd, Sen, Chuck Schumer, Todd Landman, Evan Vucci Steve Hanke, Ronald Reagan, Steve Hanke, Reagan, Steve Hanke Nate Cohn, Tina Fordham, Trump's, Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight, AP Matthew Yglesias, Yglesias, overperform electorally, Dominic Sandbrook, Sandbrook, Hillary Clinton, Tom Williams, Eric Cortellessa, Musk, Eric Cortellessa's Organizations: Service, Democratic, The New York Times Democrats, Trump, Street, Democrats Get, demeaned, Democrats, Financial, Republican, Biden, The New York Times, Trump Won, Republican Party, Britain's, Reuters Trump, White, Republicans —, Trump Republicans, Semafor, The Atlantic Voters, The, Democrat, Republicans, University of Nottingham, AP, Johns Hopkins University, Silver Locations: Trump, Ukraine, White, London, Florida, South Dakota, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Washington, New York City, San Francisco, Israel, California

☆ How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The basic theory behind prediction markets is that a lot of people with money on the line can better predict an outcome than any one expert. “Financial markets are generally pretty efficient, and the evidence suggests that the same is true of prediction markets,” Eric Zitzewitz, an economics professor at Dartmouth, tells me. The shares trade between $0 and $1, and once the event is resolved, shares tied to the correct outcome pay out a dollar. If you bought Trump shares on Monday, when they were 58 cents, you can expect to make 42 cents on the dollar. Later that fall, the popular betting market PredictIt gave Hillary Clinton an 82% chance of beating Donald Trump.

Persons: CNN Business ’, pollsters, Donald Trump’s, Trump, Kamala Harris, PredictIt, Eric Zitzewitz, “, aren’t, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, You’re, Shayne Coplan, Harris, Coplan, ” Zitzewitz, ”, “ Brexit, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Clinton, Nate Silvers, Ann Selzers, FiveThirtyEight Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wednesday, “, Dartmouth, Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Trump, Bloomberg, CNBC, European Union Locations: New York, America, United Kingdom

☆ The best writing we're finding around the web on why Trump won, Harris lost, and what it all means
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Experts have been weighing in on why Donald Trump won the US election. AdvertisementThere's been an avalanche of analysis following Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election on Wednesday, as experts sought to explain how the former president won a second term. They've offered a variety of reasons, ranging from a populist revolt against the elites to Vice President Kamala Harris' shortcomings as the Democratic candidate. Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and author of the Silver Bulletin newsletterSilver republished a lengthy post from late October titled "24 reasons that Trump won." AdvertisementNate Silver offered up 24 reasons why Donald Trump won.

Persons: Donald Trump, —, There's, Donald Trump's, They've, Kamala Harris, Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins University Hanke, Ronald Reagan, Reagan, Steve Hanke Nate Cohn, Trump, Tina Fordham, Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight, Harris, AP Matthew Yglesias, Yglesias, overperform electorally, Dominic Sandbrook, Sandbrook, Hillary Clinton, Eric Corellessa, Musk Organizations: Service, Democratic, Johns Hopkins University, The New York Times, Silver, Trump, America, AP Locations: Washington, New York City, San Francisco, Israel, California

☆ Kamala Harris' new lead in top Iowa poll could bode well for her in some key swing states
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-03 | by ( Lloyd Lee | John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Harris leading Trump by 3 points in the state. Political experts told Business Insider that the Iowa poll is significant for the Harris campaign given that the demographic makeup of Iowa — rural, older, and largely white voters — is similar to some key swing states. AdvertisementThe Iowa Poll has scrambled the conventional wisdom that former President Donald Trump will easily win the state. And notably, 69% of female respondents in the Selzer poll opposed the law, while only 27% of Iowa women backed the new restrictions. In the Selzer poll taken in September, Reynolds' job approval rating sat at 45%, while 50% of Iowans disapproved of her performance.

Persons: Harris, Trump, bode, —, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, they're, John Conway, Christian Grose, J, Ann Selzer —, Selzer, FiveThirtyEight, Patricia Crouse, it's, Joe Biden, Chip Somodevilla, Crouse, Al Gore, George W, Bush, Barack Obama's, Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joni Ernst, Kim Reynolds, Reynolds, Iowans Organizations: Des Moines Register, Trump, Service, Republicans Voters Against Trump, University of Southern, Harris, Selzer, University of New, Hawkeye State, Getty, Democratic, Texas Gov, GOP, Republicans, Republican Gov Locations: Iowa, It's, Pennsylvania, Michigan , Wisconsin, University of Southern California, Wisconsin , Michigan, Kansas, University of New Haven

☆ Buy these 39 quality stocks with rising earnings in a market with intriguing but imperfect parallels to the highly volatile fall of 2016
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-03 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Here are 39 quality economically sensitive stocks to buy, according to Morgan Stanley. Economically sensitive stocks, including financials and industrials, took off in anticipation of that result and caught fire after it became official. Several parts of the stock market seem to be preparing for another Trump presidency, according to Morgan Stanley. "Markets generally welcomed a reflationary playbook in 2016," Wilson wrote. AdvertisementRegardless of who's in office, Morgan Stanley outlined a list of 39 economically sensitive stocks that should do well.

Persons: Donald Trump, Morgan Stanley, —, Trump, Kamala Harris, It's, Harris, Mike Wilson, Wilson, that's, it's Organizations: Service, Trump, Consumer, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Locations: Financials

☆ Democrats are beating Republicans in voter enthusiasm, even as swing-state polls show tight race
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Bryan Metzger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Democrats have a big enthusiasm advantage over Republicans in the 2024 election, per Gallup. But polling in key swing states continues to show a tight race between Harris and Trump. AdvertisementWith just five days to go until Election Day, Democrats appear to have a significant advantage over Republicans when it comes to voter enthusiasm. Just before the 2012 election, Republicans boasted a 12-point enthusiasm advantage over Democrats, but Mitt Romney still lost to Obama. AdvertisementThough a better measure than voter enthusiasm, polling also has its pitfalls.

Persons: Harris, —, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump Organizations: Gallup, Trump, Service, Democratic, GOP, Electoral College, Democrats, Obama, Washington Post, Electoral Locations: Michigan, Gaza, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, In Nevada

Ad views per household For presidential and non-presidential TV ads, Aug. 1 to Oct. 25 Ads for Harris Ads for Trump Other Dem. Ads for Harris Ads for Trump Alaska Fla. Other Dem. Hawaii Ad views per household For presidential and non-presidential TV ads, Aug. 1 to Oct. 25 Other Rep. ads Ads for Harris Ads for Trump Other Dem. Alaska Fla. Hawaii Ad views per household For presidential and non-presidential TV ads, Aug. 1 to Oct. 25 Ads for Harris Ads for Trump Other Dem. TV ad views Ads for Harris Ads for Trump Other Dem.

Persons: Harris, Idaho Conn, Mo ., Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, outspending Mr, Trump, ”, Lynn Vavreck, Ruben Gallego, Republican Kari Lake, Ted Cruz, Colin Allred, ’, Erika Franklin Fowler, ” Fowler, FiveThirtyEight, Vavreck, John Sides, Christopher Warshaw, David Broockman, Ms, Willie Horton, George H.W, Bush, Hillary Clinton Organizations: Won, Harris Ads, Trump Other, ., Ind, Delaware ., W.Va, Trump Alaska Fla, AdImpact, Comscore, Democratic, Republican, Google, Wesleyan Media, Democrat, Democrat Independent, Neb . Ohio Texas Ariz, Democrats ’, Senate, Wesleyan University, Democrat Republican, Pa, Colo ., Colo, Iowa, Health, Harris Trump Immigration, Security, ’, Republicans, Mr Locations: Maine, . Vt, Minn, N.Y, Conn, Mich, Wis . Iowa Ohio, . Pa, R.I . Ill, Del, Mo, Ky . Va . Md, N.C, Tenn, Ark, New Jersey, Delaware, S.C . Miss ., La, Fla, Georgia, Trump . Montana, Mont, N.D, Ore . Idaho, Neb, Nev . Utah Colo, Calif, Kan, Ariz . Texas Alaska Hawaii Montana, N.H . Vt, Ore, Idaho, S.D, Wis, Wyo, R.I . Iowa Ohio, Delaware . Ind, Ill . Utah Colo, Mo . Kan . Va . Ky . Md, N.M, Okla . Tenn, . Ala, Texas, Trump . Hawaii, Mass, S.D . Mich, Wyo . Iowa Ohio, Nev . Ill, Ind . Utah Colo, Mo . Kan, Texas La, Alaska Fla, Hawaii, Ala, Ariz . Texas Alaska Hawaii, Trump’s, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, — Montana , Ohio, Pa . Wis . Ohio, . Texas, Nev, Neb . Ohio, Pa, Arizona, Alaska, Iowa, Va, Berkeley, Siena

☆ We are 15 days from the 2024 presidential election. Here's where things stand.
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-20 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

The presidential race remains razor close, with control of the White House at a coin-flip. AdvertisementIn just over two weeks, Election Day 2024 will be here — a final cap to a wild, at times unprecedented presidential fight that, for the moment, remains far too close to call. Noted election forecaster Nate Silver's model now shows Trump with an extremely slight lead in what continues to remain a toss-up race. Harris trolled Trump on Friday for being "exhausted," referencing a string of interviews he has reportedly walked away from. In the overwhelmingly conservative state, there's a swing district, the Omaha-based Nebraska 2nd.

Persons: —, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump's, pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, iecuUVyJ5e, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Harris, Mark Robinson, Nate Silver's, Harris trolled Trump, Trump, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, She's, Mark Cuban, Liz Cheney, Obama, Bruce Springsteen, Clinton, Bon Jovi, He's, It's, Melania Trump, night's Al Smith, Mike Pence, cohosts, Nikki Haley, Elon Musk, Musk, Spencer Platt, Mary, there's, There's, Biden, Trump's, Warren Buffett's Organizations: Service, White, Labor, RCP, Trump, Gov, The New York Times, Democrats, GOP, Capitol, Fox, Tesla, PAC, Getty, Pennsylvania, North Carolina —, Democratic, Electoral, Nebraska, Nebraska Republicans Locations: North Carolina, Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Siena, Georgia, Des Moines , Iowa, Philadelphia, New York, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Maine , Nebraska, Omaha, Minnesota , New Hampshire, New Mexico, Arizona

☆ JD Vance has broken through during the 2024 campaign in all the wrong ways
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Sen. JD Vance is one of the least-liked major vice presidential candidates in recent memory. Tim Walz in the first and only vice presidential debate. He'll get that chance on Tuesday night when the Republican vice presidential nominee debates Gov. Vice presidential candidates are traditionally near after-thoughts in the presidential race. After being anointed former President Donald Trump's MAGA heir apparent during a triumphant convention, Vance has become the least popular vice presidential nominee in recent memory.

Persons: Sen, JD Vance, Vance, Tim Walz, It's, —, He'll, Mike Pence's, Vance hasn't, Donald Trump's MAGA, Sarah Palin, Trump, Joel Goldstein, Trump's Trump, Taylor Swift, hasn't, Harris, Debbie Walsh, Kamala Harris, Walz, Donald Trump, Goldstein, Bradley Tusk, FiveThirtyEight, Palin, hyperpartisanship, He's Organizations: Gov, Service, Republican, Democratic, Center for American Women, Business, Trump, CNBC, Saint Louis University law, Venture Partners, Convention Locations: Ohio, Philadelphia, Springfield , Ohio, Alaska

☆ Why Trump is polling better in Georgia than North Carolina: From the Politics Desk
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( The Politics Desk | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +7 min

Why Trump is polling better in Georgia than North CarolinaBy Steve KornackiThe latest round of New York Times/Siena College state polls is a continuation of what has become a pattern: Donald Trump seems to be faring slightly better in Georgia than in North Carolina. And Trump is up by 2 points in North Carolina, where he prevailed by 1.3 points four years ago. And yet — at least in polling — it’s Georgia, not North Carolina, where Trump seems better positioned. According to exit polling, Trump won the noncollege white vote in each state by roughly the same margin in 2020: 59 points in Georgia and 57 points in North Carolina. It’s a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has over those early voters.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Ben Kamisar, Steve Kornacki, Donald Trump, Trump, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Mark Robinson, we’re, Harris, ”, Bill McInturff, Republican pollster, Jeff Horwitt, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Trump, New York Times, Siena College, Times, Peach, GOP, Democratic, it’s, Republicans, Republican, Hart Research Associates, Wall Locations: Georgia, North Carolina, Siena, Democratic Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, Durham, it’s Georgia, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, —

☆ America sort of likes Kamala Harris – and that might just be enough
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-21 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The 2024 White House race remains too close to call, but Vice President Kamala Harris' momentum is evident when you look just a little past the horse race. Earlier this week, Harris' favorability emerged above water for the first time since shortly after President Joe Biden took office. Soltis Anderson discussed a poll that the interest group commissioned, which found Harris has expanded Biden's once-meager lead over women voters aged 50 and over. Unlike Clinton, Walsh pointed out Harris hasn't spent decades in the spotlight and isn't faced with assuaging voters' fears of a potential political dynasty. Harris' favorability was up slightly in both Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, favorability, Joe Biden, She's, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Soltis Anderson, Debbie Walsh, Tim Malloy, Likability, Barack Obama's, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump's, Nikki Haley, Gabe Fleisher, reexamined, Trump, Nate Silver's, Walsh, There's, Clinton, Harris hasn't, isn't, Clinton's favorability, Obama's, Mark Robinson, Robinson, Sen, JD Vance, he's, Malloy Organizations: Service, AARP, Business, Center for American Women, Politics, Quinnipiac University Poll, Democratic, Research, Pew Research, State, Rutgers University, Gov, CNN, Republicans, Trump Tower, Trump Locations: North Carolina, Nazi, Nebraska, FiveThirtyEight's, Trump, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin

☆ Elon Musk boosts fake Trump rally bomb threat and false claims about the election
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Liam Reilly | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —Elon Musk is using his social media platform to promote misinformation about the presidential candidates in the lead up to the November election, amplifying false claims Wednesday about a Trump rally bomb threat and immigrants eating pets in Ohio. Then on Wednesday, Musk reshared a bogus claim that a bomb had been discovered near the site of a planned Trump rally in Long Island. Musk’s own post has been earmarked with a crowd-sourced “community notes” fact-check that makes clear the claim was false. X did not respond to a CNN request for comment Wednesday on Musk’s posts. Musk is far from the only figure spreading false information on the platform, though he is easily one of its biggest voices.

Persons: New York CNN — Elon, Donald Trump, Musk, Biden, Kamala, ”, Kamala Harris, Musk’s, Trump, JD Vance, Nate Silver, Silver, Harris Organizations: New, New York CNN, Trump, ABC, Long Island . Police, CNN, Twitter Locations: New York, Ohio, Long Island, Springfield , Ohio, Springfield, Nevada , Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania

☆ The 2024 election is anybody's race at this point, says FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe 2024 election is anybody's race at this point, says FiveThirtyEight's Nate SilverNate Silver, FiveThirtyEight founder and ‘On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything’ author, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the 2024 election, the art of risk-taking, difference between 'the river' and 'the village', and more.

Persons: Nate Silver Nate Silver

☆ Secret to Startup Success: Being an Obnoxious Risk-Taker
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Nate Silver | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Of the billionaires on the 2023 Forbes 400 list — the 400 richest people in the United States — 70% are basically self-made. In 1982, only 40% of the Forbes 400 had started their own business; the majority were simply scions of inherited wealth. The Forbes 400, however, is the extreme right tail of the curve. But you're not sniffing the Forbes 400 list, where the bidding starts at about $3 billion. I don't think VCs are deliberately picking founders they think are unreliable, although sometimes it seems like it.

Persons: Raj Chetty, That's, Chamath Palihapitiya, Palihapitiya, Josh Wolfe, Wolfe, Elon Musk, Thiel, Jeff Bezos, we're, Sam Bankman, Andreessen Horowitz, A16z, Adam Neumann, Neumann, WeWork, Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz, Horowitz, they've, Benchmark's Gurley, Gurley, Nate Silver Organizations: Forbes, United States —, Social Capital, Burger, Lux, VCs, New York Times, Penguin Press, Penguin Publishing, Penguin Random Locations: United States, America, Sri Lanka, Canada, Coney, Israeli, Silicon, Canyon Point , Utah

☆ Opinion | Nate Silver on How Kamala Harris Changed the Odds
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Ezra Klein | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +81 min

You know, Hillary Clinton, who was, I think, kind of a terrible candidate, won the popular vote by two points. So I don’t think they gave her a very good hand to play. It doesn’t matter who you are, it matters that you’re right and you’re able to prove it or bet on it in some way. What wasn’t in the Harris model that should have been?” “Yeah, maybe you really can meme your way to victory. And there’s something in it that I don’t think she can explain how she does it, but it makes her a fascinating leader.

Persons: Nate Silver, ”, ESPN’s Nate Silver, Silver, He’s, “ Savage, ” “, he’s, Ezra, Harris, we’ve, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump’s, There’s, Hillary Clinton, she’s, She’s, Gavin Newsom, It’s, Biden, I’m, you’re, Joe Biden, Democratic Party Harris, Liz, —, “, Donald Trump, that’s, George W, Bush, Donald Trump wasn’t, it’s, Michael Jackson, Woody Allen, ’, Chick, don’t, George Floyd, ‘ COVID, COVID, Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Michael Moritz, Elon, Mark Cuban, Thiel, Max Chafkin, Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Marc Andreessen, Ted Cruz, Sam Bankman, Tom Brady, SBF, Carrick Flynn, Oregon’s, I’m Carrick Flynn, Tara MacAulay, vouched, Bill Clinton, Tyler Cowen, they’ve, Jane, JD Vance, Peter Thiel’s, Vance, Trump, Steve Bannon, Don Trump, Jr, Tucker Carlson, Tim Walz, Josh Shapiro, Tell, you’ve, Shapiro, Walz, I’ve, Iglesias, Obama, Susan Collins, Joe Manchin —, Jon Tester, ” “ Sherrod Brown, I’d, Dana White, Hulk Hogan, Joe Biden’s, — let’s, Mike Donilon, Kennedy, ” “ Tim Alberta, Georgia —, Brian Kemp, Blake Masters, Rick Scott, ” “ Trump, Doug Burgum, Black, didn’t, — Woodrow Wilson, Harry Truman, Michael Jordan, everyone’s, Nancy Pelosi’s, Nancy Pelosi, Joe ’, we’re, I’ll, John Coates, Richard Rhodes, Natasha Schüll, Natasha Organizations: Oracle, Trump, Democratic Party, Facebook, Twitter, The New York Times, ’ Harvard University, Democratic White House, Republican White House, Democratic, Silver, George, Vegas, Poker, extroversion, Elon, Sequoia Capital, McLaren, Paypal, Republican, New, PAC, Alameda, Las, Ohio Senate, underperform, White, UFC, RNC, Biden, Biden ., National Association of Black Journalists, Deutsche Bank, Manhattan Project, Design Locations: Nate, Russian, Russia, ’, Elon, Florida, predestiny, Bahamas, Sam, Africa, New York, Oregon, Las Vegas, Petersburg, United States, Ohio, Trump, Minnesota, ” “ Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Gaza, Chicago, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada , Arizona, Biden . Georgia, Carolina, Arizona, Ukraine, LA, It’s, Vegas

☆ See How Biden Lost Support in the Polls Before He Dropped Out
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Albert Sun | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

See How Biden Lost Support in the Polls Before He Dropped OutPresident Biden ended his re-election campaign on Sunday after a post-debate slump in national and swing-state polls. Note: Times polling averages for the Biden vs. Trump matchup are archived here. The New York TimesMr. Biden fell again in the polls after a gunman’s attempted assassination of Mr. Trump at a Pennsylvania rally on July 13. Polls and the Electoral CollegeBoth Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump had states they could count on in November, but they needed to get to 270 electoral votes. By The New York TimesMight the polls have been wrong, or have underestimated support for Mr. Biden?

Persons: Biden, Donald J, Mr, Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: Biden, Trump, New York Times, The New York Times, Democratic, Electoral, Mr, Nev, Times Locations: Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Wisconsin , Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wis, Pa, Mich, N.C

☆ China finally agrees with Trump on something — they both think Kamala Harris can't win
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Matthew Loh | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewPresident Joe Biden's ditched election bid has gone viral in China, where online consensus is veering toward former President Donald Trump's campaign rhetoric. AdvertisementVice President Kamala Harris met briefly with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in 2022 at her request during the APEC forum that year. As for Trump, the former president is often the subject of memes in China, mocking him as a secret agent for Beijing. Montages of Harris laughing on camera have also surfaced in China, though most are not derogatory. Most July polls put either Democratic leader behind Trump, though typically by a slim disadvantage of one to five percentage points.

Persons: —, Joe Biden's, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris —, Biden, Harris, Joe Biden, Trump, there's, Wu Dalang, Xi Jinping, Antony Blinken, Kamala Harris, Ding Haitao, She's, Doug Emhoff, Blinken —, China —, Laffin, Kamala Organizations: Service, Democratic, White, Business, Republican, APEC, Getty, Trump, Biden Locations: China, Gansu, Weibo, Bangkok, Xinhua, Beijing, Trump

Gavin Newsom of California, had previously said he would not challenge Ms. Harris. He often rambles incoherently in interviews and at campaign rallies and has confused names, dates and facts just as Mr. Biden has. Mr. Biden consistently maintained that his experience was an advantage, enabling him to pass landmark legislation and manage foreign policy crises. He maintained that he was the Democrat best equipped to defeat Mr. Trump given that he did so in 2020. On the international front, Mr. Biden revitalized international alliances that frayed under Mr. Trump, rallying much of the world to stand against Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

Persons: Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald J, Trump, ”, Mr, Ms, Harris, “, it’s, I’ve, Kamala, —, Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, pollsters, Franklin, Lyndon, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden’s, James K, Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B, Hayes, Lyndon Johnson, John F Organizations: Sunday, Trump, Democratic, Democratic Party, Gov, Mr, Democratic National Convention, Senate, Democrat, White, Roosevelt’s, Society, Supreme, Republican, Republicans, Hamas Locations: Michigan, California, Chicago, Europe, County, Delaware, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, Rafah, Afghanistan, Kabul, U.S, Vietnam

☆ President Biden's reelection campaign is on its last legs as Democrats' fears extend beyond losing just the White House
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, President Biden's comeback plan isn't working , and Democratic leaders are ready to move on . President Joe Biden's reelection campaign appears to be on its last legs as calls within his party have grown from whispers to shouts since his disastrous debate last month. AdvertisementBut perhaps the biggest blow to Biden's reelection campaign came with the news that his former running mate has doubts. But for some Democrats, the risk of Biden continuing his reelection campaign could extend from the White House to Capitol Hill. Still, despite mounting pressure, Biden's campaign has remained steadfast about his reelection bid.

Persons: —, Biden's, Mario Tama, Tyler Le, Joe Biden's, it's, Insider's Brent D, Griffiths, Sen, Bernie Sanders, Biden, doesn't, That's, BI's Bryan Metzger, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Sarah Gray, Kelsey Vlamis, Barack Obama, Kent Nishimura, don't, Schumer, Jeffries, Adam Schiff, Quentin Fulks, Cros, Steve Schwarzman, it'll, Michael M, Jensen, Goldman Sachs, Peter Naylor, Amy Reinhard, Jamie Dimon's, cushy, Ernst & Young, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, It's, Harris, Harvey Weinstein, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, American Airlines, United Airlines, Democratic, Business, Getty, Trump, Biden, Capitol, Case, Senate, Wall, Google, Bank of America, Blackstone, Nvidia, Netflix, EV, Mercedes, Benz, Warner Bros Discovery, Warner Bros, Discovery, WarnerMedia, Investors, JPMorgan, McKinsey, Ernst, American Express, Convention Locations: Crowdstrike, Biden's, AFP, New York, London

☆ Donald Trump is favored, but Joe Biden can still win this election
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

If you average the national polls since the debate 15 days ago, Trump’s ahead by 3 points. An NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll out Friday morning even put the race at 50% for Biden to 48% for Trump (a result within the margin of error). Biden was ahead by 9 points in the early July national polls in 2020. I think it’s totally fair to say that Trump is the favorite and that Biden has his work cut out for him. There is also data to suggest that Vice President Kamala Harris would be a stronger Democratic nominee against Trump than Biden.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, Biden’s, Donald Trump, Democrat Michael Dukakis, Republican George H.W, Republican George H.W . Bush, Bush, Dukakis, Biden, Trump’s, Trump, we’ve, Nate Silver, Hillary Clinton, Clinton ”, We’ve, Kamala Harris, Harris Organizations: CNN, NPR, PBS, Marist College, Biden, Trump, Democrat, Republican, Biden’s, Democratic Locations: Republican George H.W ., Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, George , Nevada, North Carolina

☆ A Nobel-winning economist told us 3 ways a Trump presidency could make inflation worse
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewNobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz told Business Insider in a June interview the US economy is "remarkably strong." "I think general consensus, not just my view, but almost anybody modeling what is going on would say the Trump administration would be more inflationary," Stiglitz told BI. Related storiesStiglitz noted Trump's promise of large increases in tariffs as one of the things that could make inflation worse. A third factor that could juice inflation would be the "drastic reductions in immigration" that Trump has proposed, Stiglitz said. AdvertisementOutside of the risks to inflation, Stiglitz said a Trump presidency could also mean a slowing GDP.

Persons: —, Joseph Stiglitz, Stiglitz, Trump, Axios, Trump's, Karoline Leavitt Organizations: Service, Democratic, Republican, Business, Republican National Committee, Trump, U.S, Republicans, CNN Locations: U.S

☆ Live Election Updates: Biden Hits the Trail as Concern Among Democrats Grows.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-07 | by ( Nicholas Nehamas | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Pennsylvania is one of the states that Mr. Biden almost certainly must win if he hopes to retain the White House. “President Biden is a fierce supporter of unions, and he won’t cross a picket line,” Lauren Hitt, a Biden campaign spokeswoman, said in a statement. After Philadelphia, Mr. Biden will travel to Harrisburg for a community organizing event with union members on Sunday afternoon. “They don’t need scripted remarks,” said Steve Sisolak, the former Democratic governor of Nevada, who supports Mr. Biden. Be out there, mingle with your folks.”Despite doubts from many Democrats, Mr. Biden has defiantly insisted that he will stay in the race.

Persons: Biden, Mr, Donald J, Trump, Gavin Newsom, “, ” Lauren Hitt, Josh Shapiro, Bob Casey, John Fetterman, Biden’s, ”, Steve Sisolak Organizations: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Gov, National Education Association, Biden, Sunday, ABC News, Democratic Locations: Pennsylvania, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, California, Western Pennsylvania, Bucks County, Northwest Philadelphia, Nevada

☆ As Europe teeters further to the far right, the UK is doing the opposite
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Matthew Loh | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Sunak, who conceded defeat on Friday morning UK time, will likely be replaced by Labour Party leader Keir Starmer. Labour's rise, largely telegraphed by pre-election polls, makes the UK a clear outlier in this year's political shifts in Western Europe. Still, the far-right faction there, Vox, struggled to gain a foothold, with only 9.6% of the vote, down from 12.4% in 2019. Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage on July 3, 2024.

Persons: —, it's, Rishi Sunak's, Keir Starmer, Starmer, Jeremy Corbyn, he's, Germany's Scholz, Alice Weidel, Tino Chrupalla, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Sean Gallup, Scholz, France's, Emmanuel Macron, Macron, FRANCOIS LO, Le, Giorgia, Massimo Di Vita, Archivio Massimo Di Vita, Spain's, Pedro Sanchez's, Vox, Geert Wilders, Nigel Farage's, Farage, Nigel Farage, Dan Kitwood, Richard Wike Organizations: Service, Conservative Party, Labour Party, Business, European Union, Parliamentary, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party, Marine, FRANCOIS LO PRESTI, Getty, Italy, June's, Democratic Party, Spain's People's Party, Party for Freedom, Nigel Farage's Reform, Reform, Pew Research Center Locations: Western Europe, Germany, Berlin, France, AFP, Italy, Europe, Netherlands, Clacton

☆ Forget right or left. Voters are sick of whoever's in charge.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( Grace Eliza Goodwin | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Though some say right-wing movements are on the rise globally, in this year's elections, that's not universally the case. Andy Soloman/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty ImagesIn short, voters are just fed up — no matter who's in charge. Voters want a chanceGlobally, it's not hard to see an anti-establishment, anti-incumbency trend playing out. So-called "double haters" — voters who dislike both Trump and Biden — have made up an influential chunk of the electorate in recent polls.

Persons: —, that's, Brian Greenhill, Rishi Sunak's, Andy Soloman, Greenhill, Keir Starmer, Rishi, Emmanuel Macron's, Narendra Modi's, Yoon Suk, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, de, Richard Wike, Sweden —, Wike, Mike Kemp, there's, Biden —, Biden, it's Organizations: Service, Business, SUNY, Environmental, Getty, Voters, Labour, Conservative Party, Reuters, African National Congress, NPR, de Maismont, Pew's, Research, Pew Research, Trump Locations: India, France, SUNY Albany, South Korea, —, United States, AFP, Canada, Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, America

☆ A Nobel Prize-winning economist breaks down exactly how Trump's proposed policies could make inflation worse
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewNobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz told Business Insider the US economy is "remarkably strong." "I think general consensus, not just my view, but almost anybody modeling what is going on would say the Trump administration would be more inflationary," Stiglitz told BI. AdvertisementStiglitz noted Trump's promise of large increases in tariffs as one of the things that could make inflation worse. AdvertisementA third factor that could juice inflation would be the "drastic reductions in immigration" that Trump has proposed, Stiglitz said. Outside of the risks to inflation, Stiglitz said a Trump presidency could also mean a slowing GDP.

Persons: —, Joseph Stiglitz, Stiglitz, Trump, Axios, Joe Biden, Trump's, Karoline Leavitt Organizations: Service, Democratic, Republican, Business, Trump, U.S, Republicans, CNN Locations: U.S

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