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Big lenders are more exposed to commercial real estate than it might seem at first glance, a study says. In addition to lending to property owners, big firms also offer indirect lending to REITs, raising their exposure by about 40%. Wall Street has been worried about distress in commercial real estate amid high interest rates. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementLeading lenders have greater exposure to commercial real estate debt than typically understood, implying a larger chance of systemic risk, according to a new study.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Bank Credit Lines, Bank Financial, Business
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementWhile growth has normalized, prices still remain elevated, with median prices of existing and new homes both near all-time highs. In fact, the Housing Affordability Index fell to its all-time low last year, but Schwab noted that it seems to be pushing back up from the bottom. AdvertisementThe bank added that mortgage rates are likely to keep drifting higher, as federal interest rates normalize at around current levels. "Yet, a stabilization in activity, price growth, and interest rate volatility will likely provide a more stable foundation for the sector."
Persons: , Charles Schwab, Schwab, That's, homebuilders, it's Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Redfin
The productivity boost that AI technology will generate is being overestimated, according to a new MIT study. AI-led US GDP growth in the next 10 years will rise just 0.93% to 1.16%, economist Daron Acemoglu wrote. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementTalk to nearly any artificial intelligence bull, and they'll likely mention the technology's huge expected economic impact. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Daron Acemoglu, That's, Goldman Sachs, Organizations: MIT, Service, Vanguard, Business
"There could be hell to pay" if private credit markets wobble, Jamie Dimon said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementJPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said private credit could spark turmoil if the opaque sector of financial markets weakens. The private credit market—a corner of finance dominated by non-bank lenders who originate loans to private businesses—has grown rapidly in recent years. "And the problems in financial markets are often caused by the 'not good one,' the people that make the mistakes."
Persons: Jamie Dimon, , Dimon Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Bloomberg
Legendary investor John Hussman says the latest stock rally is rooted in the extreme fear of missing out. FOMO factors have surged in markets, and stock prices could fall 50%-70% this cycle. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. The legendary bear, famed for predicting the 2000 and 2008 crashes, reiterated that equities could drop as much as 70% this cycle. "Even the more conventional (but less reliable) S&P 500 price/forward operating earnings multiple is at levels that have no rivals except surrounding the 2000 and 2022 peaks," Hussman said.
Persons: John Hussman, , Hussman, Dow Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust
Stocks fell on Wednesday ahead of fresh economic data on growth and inflation. A $44 billion auction of seven-year Treasury notes was met with tepid demand. Bond yields spiked for a second day, with the 10-year bond climbing by seven basis points to 4.61%. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . On Tuesday, a sale of two and five-year notes was priced to weaker demand from investors.
Persons: Stocks, , Price Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Treasury, Nasdaq, Nvidia
Stocks slipped on Wednesday as traders watched the rise in US Treasury yields. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementStocks dipped on Wednesday — with the Nasdaq falling from a record — as investors watched bond yields move higher for a second day this week, with the 10-year Treasury continuing to climb above 4.5%. US bond yields are hovering around the highest level in about four weeks following a weak government bond auction Tuesday, as well as waning rate-cut hopes amid the latest inflation data.
Persons: Stocks, , Carol Schleif Organizations: Treasury, Marathon Oil, ConocoPhillips, Service, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, BMO Family Office, American Airlines Locations: PCE, Here's
The price of ether will climb to between $15,000 and $22,500 this cycle, SynFutures CEO Rachel Lin says. "Now the spot ETH ETF is approved, all indicators indicate a massive ETH bull run in the coming months," she said. AdvertisementThe positive verdict on spot ether ETFs last week will kickstart a price rally, according to Rachel Lin, the CEO of SynFutures. Today, 20 months since that date, ETH supply remains at the same 120 million," Lin said. Now the spot ETH ETF is approved, all indicators indicate a massive ETH bull run in the coming months," Lin wrote.
Persons: Rachel Lin, , Lin, Dow Jones, Ethereum, bitcoin Organizations: Service, Ethereum, bitcoin, Dow, NASDAQ, Standard Chartered, Chartered
Read previewA whistleblower claims that the Internal Revenue Service has not done enough to stop the exploitation of a Puerto Rico tax break, The New York Times reported. According to a letter written by an IRS insider, the agency's three-year campaign to uncover abuse of a tax benefit has failed to make much headway. For instance, the IRS will typically send out "soft letters" to any scrutinized beneficiaries, encouraging them to voluntarily fix any potential issue with their taxes. Yet, the agency hasn't issued any soft letters, the whistleblower said. In an interview with NYT, IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel acknowledged that no soft letters were sent, but highlighted the dozens that have been audited.
Persons: , Gabriel Hernandez, Hernandez, hasn't, Danny Werfel Organizations: Service, Internal Revenue Service, New York Times, IRS, Business, Puerto, Bloomberg Locations: Puerto Rico, Puerto Rican
Interest-rate hikes aren't out of the question, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said. "If we get surprised by the data, then we would do what we need to do," he said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAs markets debate the timing of when interest rates could finally ease, investors shouldn't be so sure rate hikes won't resume. According to Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank president, Neel Kashkari, monetary policy is likely restrictive enough for now, but no central banker can say with certainty that more rate hikes are completely out of the question.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, , shouldn't Organizations: Service, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, Business Locations: Minneapolis
UBS lifted its S&P 500 price target from 5,400 to 5,600, marking the highest target on Wall Street. The new estimate stems from diminishing recession risk and strong earnings growth. UBS also raised its estimate for earnings-per-share growth for 2024 and 2025. AdvertisementShrinking recession risks and estimate-beating earnings growth have prompted UBS to once again lift its S&P 500 year-end target, the bank said in a Tuesday note. Although UBS had upgraded its S&P target as recently as February, recent economic data has made that month's 5,400 forecast look too weak.
Persons: , Jonathan Golub, Gary Schilling Organizations: UBS, Service, Chicago
The Nasdaq finished at a record while the Dow tumbled. Nvidia soared but the broader market weakened amid a fresh spike in Treasury yields. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks finished mixed on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq at a record but the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding more than 200 points. Weighing on shares during the session was a jump in Treasury yields as the latest auction was met with lukewarm demand.
Persons: Dow, , Neel Kashkari, Elon Musk Organizations: Nasdaq, Nvidia, Service, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis
Top commodity trader Pierre Andurand expects copper to reach $40,000 a ton in the next four years. AdvertisementCopper prices at records are only a taste of what's to come, says top commodities trader Pierre Andurand. Copper is already sitting near record highs, so any quadrupling from current levels would mean a prolonged series of fresh records. It's bad news for a depleting inventory; last year, global copper supply hit its lowest seasonal level since 2008. The supply-demand imbalance is the same thesis for why commodities expert Jeff Currie expects higher prices, though his projection is nowhere near Andurand's — Currie expects copper to hit $15,000 in the coming years, and has called it "the most compelling trade" he's ever seen.
Persons: Pierre Andurand, , That's, Andurand, BHP's, Jeff Currie, — Currie, I'm, Currie Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Bloomberg
Nvidia "seems bubbly" as its semiconductor market share isn't sustainable, Rob Arnott told CNBC. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . According to Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott, Nvidia's market success is based on the idea that it will continue to dominate the semiconductor industry into the future. You can keep your 90+ market share and super chips.
Persons: Rob Arnott, , Arnott Organizations: Nvidia, CNBC, AMD, Intel, Service, Research, Taiwan Semi, Bank of America, Broadcom Locations: Taiwan
The price of ether could rise 60% if spot ETFs are approved, QCP Capital wrote. The previous success of spot bitcoin ETFs serves as an example of potential upside. Eyes are currently on the second-biggest cryptocurrency as US regulators are deciding on whether to approve the first ether spot ETFs in the country. That token's stellar run was set off in mid-January when the SEC similarly greenlit spot bitcoin ETFs. What's more, head of FX Research Geoff Kendrick wrote that the spot ether ETFs are unlikely to stumble on the same issues that tormented bitcoin, such as heavy inflow volatility.
Persons: , bitcoin, QCP, Geoff Kendrick Organizations: QCP, SEC, Service, BlackRock, [ Depository Trust, Clearing Corporation, Chartered, FX
Read previewTalks of a looming recession are flaring across Wall Street, but the savings war chest of baby boomers has staved off a US downturn. AdvertisementInstead, only the goods sector has shown signs of a growth recession, Yardeni said. But that's after the lockdown's hard-to-beat buying spree; today, goods spending remains at a record high when adjusted for inflation. Related storiesBut to Yardeni, they're the reason no consumer recession has appeared in the past two years, he separately wrote in April:"The Baby Boomers watched a lot of 'Star Trek' during the 1960s. AdvertisementMeanwhile, the baby boomer focus on service spending may also have deformed indicators, making things look gloomier than they are.
Persons: , Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Organizations: Service, Business, Financial Times, Boomers
China sold a record $53.3 billion worth of Treasurys and agency bonds in the first-quarter, Bloomberg reported. AdvertisementChina unloaded a record volume of US bonds in the first quarter, escalating the country's pivot from dollar-denominated assets. AdvertisementBy last year, China was already discarding US debt to prop up its yuan, given considerable declines against the dollar. Now, the metal makes up a 4.9% of Chinese reserves, the highest since at least 2015, Bloomberg said. China is also de-dollarizing its reserves as part of a broader movement to diversify global finance, and chip at dollar dominance.
Persons: , Biden, Donald Trump Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, US Treasury, greenback, Biden Administration, West Locations: China, Beijing, Russia
The US economy is headed for an economic hard landing driven by a deteriorating labor market, Citigroup's chief US economist told CNBC. That tends to snowball," Andrew Hollenhorst said about the job market. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA deteriorating labor market will be what causes the US economy to quickly turn sour, according to Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup's chief US economist. That tends to snowball and end up in something that looks more like a hard landing."
Persons: Andrew Hollenhorst, Organizations: CNBC, Service, Business
Stock trades fell flat as investors take a breather ahead of Nvidia's earnings. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe latest rally in stocks faltered Tuesday morning, with investors stepping back ahead of Nvidia's upcoming earnings report and further communications from Federal Reserve officials. Tuesday will also be saturated with speakers from the Federal Reserve, whose comments could provide insight into monetary policy.
Persons: , Dow, Jamie Dimon, David Morrison, Thomas Barkin, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, Loretta Mester Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Alto Networks, Urban Outfitters, Toll, Trade Nation Locations: Here's
Ethereum has jumped over the past 24 hours as odds of an imminent ETF approval have soared. AdvertisementAccording to Standard Chartered Head of FX Research Geoff Kendrick, ETF approvals would cement ether's chances of reaching $8,000 by this year's end. AdvertisementSecondly, big outflows are also less likely to be an issue for ether, Kendrick pointed out. Once ether funds are established, the price highs that it can achieve bode well for bitcoin, Kendrick added. "An ETH ETF approval will further legitimise the sector and therefore be BTC positive as well.
Persons: Ethereum, , That's, Eric Balchunas, Geoff Kendrick, Kendrick, bode Organizations: SEC, Chartered, Service, bitcoin, Securities and Exchange Commission, Bloomberg, Bloomberg Intelligence, Standard Chartered, FX, BTC Locations: VanEck
The S&P 500 came close to breaching a new high, as investors gear up for Nvidia earnings on Wednesday. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe S&P 500 closed at a record high Tuesday, as investors gear up for Nvidia's highly-anticipated earnings report. By now, the semiconductor manufacturer has a reputation for leading broader stock market upside and traders are eyeing the release as the next big catalyst as the market heads toward summer.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Crypto, , cryptocurrency Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, ethereum, Here's
Gold reached a new record of $2,454.20 per ounce on Monday as markets price in Fed rate cuts. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementGold set another record high on Monday as Wall Street readies for monetary policy to ease this year. Given that gold is a safe haven asset, rising international face-offs have prompted more investors to buy the bullion. Meanwhile, US sanctions on Russian reserves sparked central banks to snap up the metal at record pace.
Persons: Gold, , Grzegorz Drozdz, David Miarrions Organizations: Service, P, Trade
The firm notes that Vertiv, which makes power and cooling equipment for data centers, has beaten Nvidia by 315% over the past year. Much of that stems from the advanced chips that power AI on — such as the ones Nvidia produces — requiring significantly more electricity to operate. "Power used by AI applications is expected to grow at a 25-33% CAGR over the next few years." AdvertisementAs Nvidia gears up for its earnings season on Wednesday, expectations remain strong, Bank of America said. Previously, Goldman Sachs had similarly outlined broadening AI investment, characterizing Nvidia as the first of four phases.
Persons: , They're, Nvidia's, Vertiv, outpacing, BofA, Bank of America BofA, Steve Eisman, it's, NVDA, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Bank of America, Nvidia, Service, Vertiv
Janet Yellen told The New York Times that G7 leaders will discuss the details of a loan program for Ukraine. The loan would use proceeds from Russia's frozen asset and potentially offer a $50 billion lifeline. The aid could offer Ukraine a means of survival as Moscow amplifies its offensive. AdvertisementThe US and its allies are getting serious about a plan to finance Ukraine using interest earned on Russia's frozen assets. Under the idea, these profits would be bundled together into a sizable loan, a possible means of survival for Kyiv.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Organizations: New York Times, Service, Kyiv, Business Locations: Ukraine, Moscow
Copper "is the most compelling trade I have ever seen," Carlyle's Jeff Currie said on the Odd Lots podcast. He thinks the metal's massive mismatch in supply and demand could push its price up to $15,000 a ton. AdvertisementCopper supply issues are making the metal considerably more expensive, says commodities veteran Jeff Currie, who is very bullish on the opportunity. He later added: "I just quote many of our clients and other market participants say it's the highest conviction trade they've ever seen." Though not necessarily part of his acronym, artificial intelligence is also amplifying industry demand, Currie mentioned.
Persons: Carlyle's Jeff Currie, Currie, , Jeff Currie, Carlyle, Currie —, Goldman Sachs, policy's, copper's, deglobalization Organizations: Industry, Service, Bloomberg, US, BHP Locations: China, Panama
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