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☆ ‘A lot of fear:’ Trump’s deportation proposals are already rattling workers
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-21 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +12 min

“People are afraid of walking the streets right now; there’s a lot of fear … a lot of fear,” Sanchez said. “Shrinking worker (supply) in a period in which those sectors need more workers and are having a hard time finding workers will clearly generate a slowdown,” Peri said. Although temporary farm visas — known as H-2A — do exist, there is no legal way to have year-round foreign workers. “We know [undocumented immigrants] are working, they’re not sitting at home,” he said. “The slowing in immigration that’s broadly anticipated will probably show up in tighter labor markets for lower-skilled workers,” he said in an interview.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Sam Sanchez, ”, Sanchez, ” Sanchez, Giovanni Peri, Peri, Ron Estrada, “, ” Estrada, farmworkers, Joe Sohm, Farmworker Justice’s Estrada, Carolinians, they’re, “ They’ve, Biden, Trump, Michael Feroli, Julia Pollak, Scott Olson, it’s, Joe Brusuelas, ” Karoline Leavitt, Vance, Joanne Eriaku, Eriaku, she’s Organizations: CNN, Chicago, Coast Hospitality Group, “, Global Migration, University of California, Davis, UCDavis, Migration Center . Business, Biden, Farmworker, North Carolina Growers Association, Congressional, CBO, JPMorgan, Republican National Convention, RSM, Trump, United Nations, UN, Social Locations: America, Mexico, Little, San Francisco, Chicago, ”, Milwaukee, Chicago’s Little, Springfield , Ohio, New York City, Uganda, Eriaku, Kenya, United States

☆ Dollar braces for U.S. inflation data and several Fed speakers
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar started in a cautious mood on Monday as markets braced for U.S. inflation data and a throng of Federal Reserve speakers this week, while the yuan nursed a hangover from Beijing's latest underwhelming stimulus package. The dollar started in a cautious mood on Monday as markets braced for U.S. inflation data and a throng of Federal Reserve speakers this week, while the yuan nursed a hangover from Beijing's latest underwhelming stimulus package. Reports on retail sales and industrial output due Friday should show whether Beijing's various attempts at stimulus are having any real effect on demand. The dollar stood at 7.1970 yuan , having jumped 0.7% on Friday, and looks set to again test the 7.2000 barrier. The dollar index was a fraction firmer at 105.00, after gaining 0.6% last week mainly against the euro.

Persons: Olaf Scholz, Donald Trump's, Michael Feroli, Jerome Powell, cryptocurrencies Organizations: Federal Reserve, New, U.S, Fed Locations: China, New Zealand

☆ Investors should expect more aggressive actions with China, says JPMorgan's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should expect more aggressive actions with China, says JPMorgan's Michael FeroliMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss how economists are forecasting growth, how tariffs will impact the U.S. economy, and when its time to worry about debt and deficits.

Persons: JPMorgan's Michael Feroli Michael Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan Locations: China

☆ JPMorgan's Michael Feroli expects two 25 bps cuts through year-end
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Michael Feroli expects two 25 bps cuts through year-endMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the disappointing jobs report and the economy.

Persons: Michael Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ The big catalyst for the week: How to trade Friday’s job report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The best-case scenario for stocks is if Friday's jobs report comes in slightly above consensus, according to JPMorgan. Here are the bank's five scenarios: Above 200,000 jobs added: The S & P 500 trades flat or as much as 0.5% higher. Between 160,000 to 200,000 jobs added: The S & P 500 gains between 1% and 1.5%. Between 140,000 to 160,000 jobs added: The S & P 500 rises by 0.75% to 1.25%. Between 110,000 to 140,000 jobs added: JPMorgan traders see the S & P 500 sliding between 0.5% and 1.5%.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Dow Jones, JPMorgan's, Michael Feroli, nonfarm Organizations: JPMorgan, Investors, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ JPMorgan economist who nailed half-point call sees another big Fed rate cut in November
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

At its much-anticipated meeting Wednesday, the Fed approved a half percentage point, or 50 basis point, cut to its benchmark funds rate that ran counter to the 25 basis point move that many Wall Street economists and strategists had been expecting. The benchmark fed funds rate now stands at 4.75% to 5.00% after Wednesday's move. Futures market pricing Thursday suggested a 25 basis point move in November followed by a 50 basis point cut in December, according to the CME Group's FedWatch. A basis point equals 0.01%. "Ultimately what we found most important in what Powell said was also among the least surprising things he said: future decisions are going to depend on the data," Feroli wrote.

Persons: Michael Feroli, Feroli, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, Street Locations: U.S

☆ Stock market setting itself up for disappointment as it hits all-time high ahead of the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Last week, markets expected a quarter-point rate cut and were just happy that the Fed was starting the cutting cycle. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD And fed funds futures now point a majority of traders seeing a half point cut. Even though most Fed officials and economists believe the central bank would start with a quarter point. But now we've gone from that fear to expecting a half point. On the other hand, the JPMorgan traders think that a cut of a quarter point would "add to market uncertainty," meaning that we probably shouldn't expect the market to keep building on its all-time highs with a quarter point.

Persons: wouldn't, Michael Feroli, CNBC's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, JPMorgan

☆ JPMorgan top economist says the Fed should cut rates by a half point this month
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-05 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist of JPMorgan Securities, listens during a Bloomberg Television interview in New York on March 6, 2018. The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting, according to JPMorgan's Michael Feroli. "We think there's a good case for hurrying up in their pace of rate cuts." "While inflation is still a little above target, unemployment is probably getting a little above what they think is consistent with full employment. This follows the unemployment rate inching higher to 4.3% in July, triggering a recession indicator known as the Sahm Rule.

Persons: Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's Michael Feroli, CNBC's, you've, Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan Securities, Bloomberg Television, Federal Locations: New York

☆ Don't see why Fed wants to take 'baby steps' with rate cuts, says JPMorgan's Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't see why Fed wants to take 'baby steps' with rate cuts, says JPMorgan's FeroliMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss Feroli's expectations for rate cuts, Friday's jobs report in context with other economic data, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Feroli Michael Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ Expect a Fed rate cut in September with quarterly cuts thereafter: JPMorgan's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect a Fed rate cut in September with quarterly cuts thereafter: JPMorgan's Michael FeroliChris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities head of equity strategy, and Michael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the supposed market rotation, Feroli's calculations towards the rate path, and much more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Michael Feroli Chris Harvey, Michael Feroli Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, JPMorgan Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Here's why JPMorgan's Michael Feroli still expects three rate cuts this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why JPMorgan's Michael Feroli still expects three rate cuts this yearMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Fed ahead of its meeting tomorrow and how the rate decision could impact the markets.

Persons: Michael Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ JPMorgan's Michael Feroli: Still expect the Fed to carry out its first rate cut in July
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Michael Feroli: Still expect the Fed to carry out its first rate cut in JulyMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what Feroli made of the latest retail sales data, what to expect from the Federal Reserve, and more.

Persons: Michael Feroli, Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve

☆ This week will make it clearer if the Fed will cut interest rates in March
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Washington, DC CNN —A slew of economic news this week will make it much clearer if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The Labor Department is due to release four crucial assessments of America’s job market, gauging labor demand, wage growth, productivity and hiring. Wages and the Fed on Wednesday: The day after, the Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter, a comprehensive measure of employers’ labor costs. The US Labor Department releases December data on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter.

Persons: that’s, ”, Christian Scherrmann, Jerome Powell, ” Michael Feroli, “, ” Feroli, Powell, Alicia Wallace, Joe Brusuelas, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, DWS, Labor, Survey, Fed, Employers, PCE, Federal, Commerce Department, RSM, Whirlpool, Microsoft, UBS, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Cleveland Cliffs, Mondelez International, JetBlue Airways, Global, US Labor Department, Board, National Bureau of Statistics, Novo Nordisk, Mastercard, Novartis, Boeing, ADP, Nasdaq, Nomura Holdings, Apple, Shell, Honeywell, Deutsche Bank, Clorox, Quest Diagnostics, United States Steel, Bank of England, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Marathon, Cleveland, Chevron

☆ JPMorgan's Michael Feroli: Expect rate cuts in June
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Michael Feroli: Expect rate cuts in JuneMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss what surprised Feroli most in the latest GDP data, whether Feroli's outlook has changed after the latest GDP print, and more.

Persons: Michael Feroli, Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ The economy is slowing, says JPMorgan's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy is slowing, says JPMorgan's Michael FeroliMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss where Feroli thinks the economy is, how to balance Feroli's thoughts with the higher for a more extended narrative, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Michael Feroli Michael Feroli, Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan

Bond yields fell, and traders of contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate now see only a 12% chance of a rate hike by January, down from 30% before the release of the employment report. Rate futures pricing now reflects a better-than-even chance of a Fed rate cut by May of 2024, with several more cuts expected later next year. U.S. central bankers themselves are not even thinking about rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week after the Fed kept its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range. "Continued upward momentum would be troubling, and hopefully this recent rise levels off as the labor market recovery continues," said Indeed.com's Nick Bunker. Still for now, most of the worries about the labor market appear to be focused on what might, or might not, happen next rather than on the evidence so far.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, nonfarm, Bond, Powell, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, Michael Feroli, Nick Bunker, Sharif, Julie Su, Ann Saphir, Shristi Achar, Tomasz Janowski, Christina Fincher, Paul Simao, Chris Reese Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Labor Department, U.S, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Richmond Fed, CNBC, JPMorgan, Reuters Graphics, Labor, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ The Fed is at odds with itself. That’s a feature, not a bug
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

So, Fed officials are divided, but it doesn’t really matter. Fed officials are still people, and as the saying goes, opinions are like bellybuttons in that everyone’s got one. Fed officials in that committee with voting power have the option to dissent, but it’s only happened twice this cycle. This year’s voters, which are Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, will be rotated out next year. Up NextMonday: Fed officials Lorie Logan, Michael Barr and Phillip Jefferson deliver remarks.

Persons: Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman, ”, Biden, That’s, Michael Feroli, everyone’s, “ It’s, ” Feroli, Esther George, Ed Al, Hussainy, JPMorgan’s Feroli, It’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, Logan, Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed’s Daly, – CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald, Michael Barr, Phillip Jefferson, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Fed, Market Committee, Kansas City, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Governors, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco, Treasury, PepsiCo, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Delta, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: San, Kansas, Columbia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, San Francisco, Walgreens

☆ We're leaning more towards a mild recession instead of a soft landing: JPMorgan's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're leaning more towards a mild recession instead of a soft landing: JPMorgan's Michael FeroliMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether the economy has seen the end of the soft landing story, how much worse it'll get in the real estate sector, and more.

Persons: Michael Feroli Michael Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan

Striking United Auto Workers members Laura Zielinski and Aisha Cochra hold their strike signs outside the Stellantis Jeep plant in Toledo, Ohio, U.S. September 19, 2023. The fledgling auto workers strike, if it lasts and broadens out, could be just that. A prolonged nationwide strike could put already-low inventory under heavy strain, posing "significant" upside risk to auto prices. The United Auto Workers strike against the 'Detroit Three' automakers General Motors, Ford and Stellantis entered its fifth day on Tuesday. Annual inflation has plummeted this year and by some measures now has, or is close to having, a "2" handle - the central bank's 2% goal is within sight.

Persons: Laura Zielinski, Aisha Cochra, Rebecca Cook, Morgan Stanley, Michael Feroli, JP Morgan, Cox, Stellantis, Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: United Auto Workers, REUTERS, Rights, Fed, Reuters, U.S . Consumer, Bureau of Labor Statistics, General Motors, Ford, Cox Automotive, UAW, UBS, University, Thomson Locations: Toledo , Ohio, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Detroit

WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday with officials widely expected to keep interest rates on hold for now, but also flagging in new economic projections whether they feel rates still need to rise further before the end of the year. A new policy statement and interest rate decision will be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Wednesday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. to elaborate. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsIn June the Fed paused, but the quarterly economic projections accompanying that decision showed 12 of 18 policymakers still anticipated two more quarter-point rate increases by the end of the year. But how fast and when that occurs remains a matter of debate within the Fed and depends on how fast inflation falls. But it may mean rates stay higher for longer than the public currently expects.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Morgan, Michael Feroli, Feroli, Powell, Michael Gapen, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Bank of America, Thomson Locations: synch

☆ 'We are becoming more convinced that the cracks are emerging': JPMorgan warns a host of recession risks are starting to pile up — and shares 2 trades to keep your portfolio safe
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Another is the still-inverted Treasury yield curve, meaning yields on shorter-duration government bonds are higher than those with longer durations. Inversions of the 3-month and 10-year yields have preceded every recession since the 1960s without producing a false signal. The Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) offer exposure to energy stocks. The Consumer Price Index, a main measure of inflation, rose to 3.7% year-over-year in August compared to 3.2% in July. Investors can gain exposure to short-term government bonds through TreasuryDirect, their brokerage, or through ETFs like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH).

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Michael Feroli, Cash Organizations: for Supply Management, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Federal, Energy, Vanguard Energy Locations: China, TreasuryDirect

Colombian-born Kugler, whose research has focused on labor markets, is the first Latina to join the Fed Board in its 109-year history. The vote was 53-45, with a few Republicans supporting a nomination that was championed by Democratic Senator Bob Menendez. The Senate on Wednesday also confirmed Fed Governor Philip Jefferson as Fed vice chair and Fed Governor Lisa Cook to a second term. Jefferson's success as vice chair will hinge on his ability to help Powell manage that process. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao and Timothy GardnerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Adriana Kugler, Jonathan Ernst, Kugler, Bob Menendez, Menendez, Philip Jefferson, Lisa Cook, Cook, Jerome Powell, Powell, Michael Feroli, Jefferson, she'll, Derek Tang, Tang, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao, Timothy Gardner Organizations: Federal Reserve, of Governors, Capitol, REUTERS, U.S, Senate, Bank, Fed Board, Democratic, Wednesday, Jefferson, JPMorgan, Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Cuban, United States, U.S

He called the U.S. central bank's misreading of the issue "a major failure" that can mar analysis of where the economy stands. Since 2016, policies from the vastly different Trump and Biden administrations have combined in a sort of accidental complementarity to keep both job and economic growth above the Fed's estimate of potential. Median Fed policymaker projections of potential U.S. economic growth have slid from a level around 2.5% a decade ago to 1.8% as of June 2023, when the last projections were issued. Under pressure from colleagues to raise interest rates as the economy accelerated, Greenspan resisted and accommodated the expansion instead of fighting it. But it could help economic growth continue even as prices cool, another prop for the "soft landing" the Fed hopes to engineer and possible evidence of rising potential.

Persons: John Williams, Joe Biden, Adam Posen, Donald Trump, Trump's, Biden, Dana Peterson, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Board's Peterson, Alan Greenspan's, Greenspan, Jackson, John Fernald, Huiyu Li, Michael Feroli, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, San Francisco, Fed, Reuters, BlackRock, Bank of England, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Biden, Conference Board, Jackson, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Trust Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington

☆ Real consumer spend could be up 3-4% this quarter, says JPMorgan's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailReal consumer spend could be up 3-4% this quarter, says JPMorgan's Michael FeroliMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the expectations for the third quarter, what Jerome Powell could say at this week's Jackson Hole Summit, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Michael Feroli Michael Feroli, Jerome Powell Organizations: JPMorgan, Hole Summit

☆ A former BlackRock stock chief shares 3 indicators that tell him it's too early to abandon his recession call despite the economy's strength — and warns the stock market's rally is doomed for a revers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The inverted yield curve and The Conference Board's LEI are two indicators that inform his view. Instead, investors should be paying attention to indicators like the Treasury yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and money growth. Here's the yield curve. And the start of a recession typically comes a bunch of of months after the yield curve inverts. The yield curve didn't invert until less than a year ago.

Persons: Bob Doll, LEI, Doll, Wall, — Bank of America's Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli —, we're, Louis, It's, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Greg Boutle, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, — Bank of America's, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Louis Investors, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, BNP, Institute for Supply, Institute for Supply Management, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wells

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