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This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Breaking from Wall Street, Asia-Pacific stocks mostly rose on Friday. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 0.2%, in line with estimates from a Reuters poll, but that's lower than the second quarter's 0.5% increase. China retail sales pick back upChina's retail sales in October rose 4.8% year on year, reported the National Bureau of Statistics.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Music, Fair, CNBC, Trump, Nikkei, CSI, U.S . Federal, National Bureau of Statistics, Nvidia, Citi Locations: Dallas , Texas, Street, Asia, Pacific, China
AdvertisementThe large-cap real estate sector benefits from Wall Street's massive investment in data centers, a necessary infrastructure component of the artificial intelligence buildout. AdvertisementIn Subramanian's view, part of the appeal of value sectors is the high dividends they offer. As the Fed's cutting cycle pulls down short-term yields, money market investors will search for new sources of income. She previously noted that dividend yields are especially alluring in real estate. Since 2008, real estate dividends has doubled the proportion of high-quality market cap.
Persons: they're, Subramanian, , Savita Subramanian, BofA's, BofA, Scott Chronert Organizations: Bank of America, Service, CNBC, Bloomberg Locations: China, Beijing
'I was surprised': S&P economist on the Fed's bumper rate cut
  + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'I was surprised': S&P economist on the Fed's bumper rate cutSatyam Panday, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, says it's clear the U.S. Federal Reserve doesn't want to get behind the curve.
Persons: Satyam Panday Organizations: Satyam, U.S . Federal
But you're going to struggle if you're looking for a new one. "Even a few months ago, the labor market seemed fine, the trajectory looked stable," said Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, a think tank. The Fed therefore believes it can put a floor underneath the labor market that prevents it from deteriorating further, Berger said. "What we need to see is strong private-sector labor market growth, and outside of health care, what we've seen instead is a very, very rapid deceleration that has shown no signs yet of stabilizing," Pollak said. Pollak also said leisure and hospitality jobs — a key entry point into the labor market — have actually declined outright in recent months, putting further pressure on workers to secure employment.
Persons: Guy Berger, Berger, Jerome Powell, Bill Dudley, Julia Pollak, Pollak, we've Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Glass, Federal, Fed, New York Federal, Bloomberg Locations: U.S, haves
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewAfter raising $13 billion in 2022, billionaire Paul Singer's Elliott Management raked in another sizeable haul over the past six months. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Related stories"Historical and mathematical fact can get lost in the excitement when stocks are on a tear," the letter states. The firm recently took a $2.5 billion stake in Texas Instruments, calling on the 94-year-old company to improve its free cash flow.
Persons: , Paul Singer's Elliott, Elliott —, Elliott, doesn't Organizations: Service, Paul Singer's Elliott Management, Business, Texas Locations: YOLO
Investors had lately been hoping the Fed might start easing back on policy starting in June, with three rate cuts penciled in for the year. But a robust labor market, as reflected in last week's March payrolls, and this latest consumer inflation data have pushed back that view. Markets now anticipate the first cut might come in September, with just two quarter-point reductions for the whole year. Even so, investors anticipate that markets may be able to take fewer rate cuts in stride so long as the Fed isn't actually forced to raise rates. Varghese still leans toward equities, expecting as many as three rate cuts this year, though he anticipates the first cut might not come until July now.
Persons: Federal Reserve doesn't, Stocks, isn't, Ayako Yoshioka, Yoshioka, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Sonu Varghese, Varghese, Powell, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Carson Group, CPI
We certainly didn't want to trade Apple and Nvidia – the Club's two 'own it, don't trade it' stocks – as so many did. No, what got to me was a chartist saying that Nvidia's stock had the worst technical shape of any stock in the entire market. Hindsight says I should have known to walk away, but I have been in and around this stock almost my entire life. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: It's, Kenny Rodgers, I've, Emerson, Goldman Sachs, we're, Walt Disney, it's, Bausch, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Alexi Rosenfeld Organizations: Apple, Nvidia, Intel, Devices, Federal, Starbucks, Procter & Gamble, GE HealthCare Technologies, National, Goldman, Walt, Netflix, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Fifth, Getty Locations: U.S, China, Emerson, New York City
The Fed continued its pause on interest rate hikes in November. Fed Chair Powell said interest rate cuts are not part of the discussion right now. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe Federal Reserve doesn't want Americans thinking an interest rate cut is coming anytime soon. On Wednesday, the nation's central bank announced it would be continuing its pause on interest rates hikes in November, following the pause in September. Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle, ranking member of the House Budget Committee, said in a statement that "the Fed is right to continue the pause in interest rate hikes" but also "must avoid a costly overcorrection that could threaten this progress."
Persons: Powell, , Jerome Powell, Brendan Boyle Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal, Democratic, Republicans Locations: Israel, Ukraine
The current bull market in stocks looks sustainable as long as the Federal Reserve doesn't mess things up. The firm highlighted that the S&P 500's 25% rally from its mid-October low has all the hallmarks of a long-term secular bull market rather than a short-term cyclical bull market. That fact favors the idea that the current bull market in stocks is more secular in nature than cyclical, according to the note. As a result, the Fed represents the biggest risk to the stock market, which is the case whether the Fed cuts or continues to raise interest rates. With interest rates sitting at more than 5%, all eyes will be on the Fed's next interest rate decision at its July FOMC meeting.
Persons: Ned Davis, , it's, Alan Greenspan, Stocks, Jerome Powell, Burns, Miller Organizations: Federal, Ned Davis Research, NDR, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Term Capital Management
Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel is expecting some months of negative job growth later this year, and if the Federal Reserve doesn't respond with rate cuts, the market could struggle, he said Wednesday. "The worry I have is the Fed is going to say … 'We're going to stay tight,'" Siegel said on CNBC's " Halftime Report ." If the Fed doesn't cut, then it's going to be tougher sledding for the markets." Siegel said he sees a "meaningful" gain in the stock market this year if Fed officials "will respond to the downside as rigorously as they responded to the upside." However, he warned, if the central bank doesn't respond quickly, he sees a more "muted" return of 5% to 10% for the year.
Investors should get used to directionless trading, according to BMO Capital Markets. The S&P 500 has bounced between technical support and resistance levels, especially recently. BMO Capital MarketsBulls or bears hoping for a breakout in one direction or another will both be disappointed, according to BMO Capital Markets. 21 cheap quality stocks to buy nowBut even if US stocks stay stagnant for months, BMO believes investors can outperform by targeting high quality companies that have reasonable valuations and price momentum. Such stocks typically log double-digit returns while the S&P 500 is in a tight range, Belski noted.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher: Four or five percent inflation is unacceptableRichard Fisher, former Dallas Fed president and senior Barclays advisor, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss why the Federal Reserve doesn't seem as worried about the bank failures as the markets, if recent data has swayed the Federal Reserve, and more.
The Fed doesn't need to raise unemployment to lower inflation, Paul Krugman said. That suggests the labor market is sustainable, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said otherwise. Central bankers raised interest rates over 1,700% in the past year to tame inflation and rein in economic growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said rates will likely need to stay elevated until the labor market cools. But inflation measures have been cooling without a rise in unemployment, Krugman said.
Investors should be worried if the Federal Reserve doesn't raise interest rates next week, according to Steve Eisman. "If the Fed is scared, you should be scared," the "Big Short" investor told CNBC. Traders upped their bets on a Fed pause after the US's regional banking crisis rocked markets. "If the Fed doesn't raise rates … maybe it'll be positive for a couple hours or a couple of weeks," he added. The central bank is in a difficult position because inflation could flare up again if it does stop tightening, according to Eisman.
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. And after the chaotic few days following Silicon Valley Bank's collapse, unsurprising is what markets needed. The bigger news of the day was banks' — and investors' — reaction to U.S. financial regulators' measures to protect the financial industry. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Of course, the muted reaction to the CPI might be because the numbers were exactly in line with estimates. The bigger news of the day was banks' — and investors' — reaction to U.S. financial regulators' measures to protect the financial industry. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
Westend61HELOC use rose as cash-out refis droppedLast year, as mortgage rates climbed higher, accessing home equity by taking cash against it during refinancing — a so-called cash-out refi — became less appealing. That compares with personal loan rates of above 10%, for consumers with high credit scores, and about 20% for credit cards, according to CreditCards.com. I would not use a HELOC to buy frivolous things or things you can't afford. "I would not use a HELOC to buy frivolous things or things you can't afford," said certified financial planner David Demming, president of Demming Financial Services in Aurora, Ohio. Here are three key things to consider before signing on the dotted line.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGold is getting more expensive for consumers, which could 'curb the rally': HSBCJames Steel of the bank says if the U.S. Federal Reserve doesn't cut interest rates in the second half of the year, that could "take some of the oxygen away from the gold market."
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPrudent for Fed to pause rate hikes and assess impact, says former FDIC chairSheila Bair, former FDIC chair and The Volcker Alliance founding director, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss why the Federal Reserve should pause rate hikes, if the Fed needs to pay attention to the yield curve and what happens if the Federal Reserve doesn't pause rate hikes.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with the Volcker Alliance's Sheila BairSheila Bair, former FDIC chair and The Volcker Alliance founding director, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss why the Federal Reserve should pause rate hikes, why the Fed pays attention to the yield curve and what happens if the Federal Reserve doesn't pause rate hikes.
The US economy is already in a "rolling recession," says Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders. Sonders believes investors should emphasize factor investing over picking sectors. The timeline for the next recession may be the biggest topic of debate amongst investors right now. But Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, believes that the US economy is already in a recession — whether it's been officially declared or not. She also believes that investors who primarily own US assets and have no exposure to overseas equities may miss out on potential returns.
Jeremy Siegel expects US stocks to surge by 20% to 30% over the next two years. The Wharton professor sees interest rates dragging house prices down by 10% to 15% from their peak. Siegel warned the Fed risks causing a recession if it continues to aggressively hike rates. "I'm flabbergasted," Siegel said about the Fed scrambling to cool inflation based on lagging indicators such as rent increases. "What the market is so scared about is there seems to be no limit to their talk: 'Hike, hike, hike, hike, hike," he said.
Rent prices are falling across the country. It could be a lifesaver for not only Americans' bank accounts but also the entire US economy as a recession looms. The issue is that it takes time for lower rent prices to filter into the consumer-price index and other widely watched measures of inflation. "The faster those things show up in consumer-price inflation, the faster the inflation steps down, the sooner the Fed will back off." Sahm said the Fed was well aware of the way rent inflation is measured, adding that it "knows this data better than anyone in the world."
However, this month has also seen the end of more bear markets than any other. Data from the Stock Trader's Almanac shows that, of the 23 S & P 500 bear markets since World War II, seven ended in October, more than any other month. The majority of Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite bear markets have also ended in October. What's more, there are some signs that the end of this bear market could be near. Indeed, many of the headwinds hurting the stock market aren't going away anytime soon.
Some economists say that means the Federal Reserve doesn't need to squash jobs to cool inflation. Cooling prices might provide less reason for the Federal Reserve to continue its bold campaign to raise interest rates and slow the economy. It did just that on Wednesday, increasing interest rates by another 0.75% to make borrowing more expensive and squash demand. "Will raising interest rates lead to more oil, lower prices of oil, more food, lower prices of food?" "The real worry in my mind is," he added, "will they increase interest rates too high, too fast, too far?"
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