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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey: 96% of respondents see a November rate cut, 79% see rate cut in DecemberCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the results from CNBC's latest Federal Reserve Survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC, Reserve Survey
That’s helped push uncertainty among small business owners to an all-time high since the nearly 40-year inception of a monthly survey the National Federation of Independent Business conducts to gauge small business sentiment. The scale of firms whose investment plans are impacted by election uncertainty is “pretty remarkable” compared to prior elections, said Daniel Weitz, survey director at the Atlanta Fed. The Fed’s Beige Book, a quarterly collection of survey responses from businesses compiled by the 12 regional Fed banks published Wednesday, highlighted a wide range of businesses that are suffering because of election uncertainty. But the blowback that businesses are facing from the election uncertainty should subside once the policy path ahead becomes more clear, at which point we could start to see a rebound in hiring and capital investment businesses make, Meyer told CNN. The combination of these three major unknowns is shaping small business owners’ uncertain outlooks, said Holly Wade, executive director of the NFIB Research Center.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, That’s, ” “, Duke, Daniel Weitz, , hesitancy, Brent Meyer, Harris, Meyer, that’s, They’re, Holly Wade, “ We’re, Wade Organizations: New, New York CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Reserve, Atlanta and Richmond Federal, Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, Fortune, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, Fed, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed, Trump, CNN, Federal Reserve, NFIB Research Locations: New York,
The thrice-yearly measure of labor activity, confidence and satisfaction reflected growing concern in July about job security and an increase in those expecting to work past typical retirement age. Similarly, those who expected to become unemployed rose to 4.4%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from a year ago and the highest in the survey's history. On wages, satisfaction with current compensation dropped to 56.7%, down more than 3 percentage points from the same period in 2023. Finally, the expected likelihood of working past age 62 nudged up to 48.3% of respondents and increased to 34.2% of those saying they expect to work past 67, an increase of more than 2 percentage points. Following their most recent meeting, Fed officials described job growth as having "moderated."
Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, Workers Locations: U.S, nonfarm
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey: 81% of respondents expect first rate cut in SeptemberCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the latest news from the most recent CNBC Federal Reserve Survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC, CNBC Federal Reserve Survey
Opinion | The Great Interest Rate Debate
  + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Paul Krugman | Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday to talk about interest rates, which many voters are really frustrated about. People are saying high rates make it hard to buy a home or car or deal with debts. We eventually need to get into the underlying economics — why are interest rates high, and will they stay there? But first, on how interest rates influence people’s views, we need to deal with an odd aspect of the situation. High interest rates are, indeed, a burden on some Americans, especially first-time home buyers.
Persons: Peter Coy, Paul, we’ve, They’re, they’re, Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Paul Krugman, Peter Organizations: Fed, University of Michigan, Biden
The documentary chronicles the rise and fall of the movie-ticket-subscription company MoviePass, and is based on award-winning reporting from Business Insider . The big storyRetirement mathGetty Images;Alyssa Powell/BIFor some millennials, the reality of their retirement plans is that they're a fantasy. AdvertisementIt's not the first time we've gotten troubling data about millennials' retirement plans. But it's not just a lack of savings working against millennials' plans of riding off into the retirement sunset. AdvertisementAnd if you're hoping for a Hail Mary in the form of a fat inheritance to jumpstart your retirement plans, that's not looking great either.
Persons: , MovieCrash, Alyssa Powell, Jacob Zinkula, William Edwards, we've, it's, millennials, Hail Mary, that's, Juliana Kaplan, It's, Johannes Simon, Neel Kashkari, Sam Altman, Justin Sullivan, Oliver Mulherin, Scarlett Johansson, Altman, Jensen Huang, Adam Neumann, Neumann, WeWork, Moviegoing, there's, BI's Peter Kafka, Sheryl Sandberg, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, HBO, Max, Business, Hail, Reserve Survey, Consumer, Wall, Minneapolis, UBS, Google, Nvidia, BI, Hollywood, HP Locations: Swiss, BI Denmark, New York, London
The worst of inflation might be in the rear-view mirror, but the share of Americans who say they're "doing OK financially" has hit a four-year low. Among all U.S. adults, 72% say they were "doing OK" in 2023 — the lowest percentage since April 2020, according to an annual Federal Reserve survey released Tuesday. The sentiment has been trending down since 2021, when it was 78%. Notably, the share of parents with kids who say they are doing OK dropped from 69% in 2022 to 64% in 2023. A lot of that has to do with inflation, as 35% of the 11,400 survey respondents say rising prices were the "main financial challenge" in 2023, the highest of all self-reported answers, including retirement savings and debt.
Organizations: Federal Reserve
On a one-year basis, the expectation increased to 3.3%, up 0.3 percentage point from March and the highest since November 2023. However, expected increases in housing prices are particularly troublesome for policymakers who expected shelter costs to ease this year. Along with expected higher home costs, respondents see rents rising 9.1%, up 0.4 percentage point from the prior month. They expect food prices to increase 5.3% (up 0.2 percentage point from a month ago), gasoline to rise 4.8% (up 0.3 percentage point); and college education to increase by 9%, a 2.5 percentage point surge. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the all-items CPI to show a 3.4% increase for April from the prior year, down 0.1 percentage point from March.
Persons: Philip Jefferson, Dow Jones Organizations: Costco, Consumers, New York Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Labor Locations: Novato , California, New, New York
Brauns | E+ | Getty ImagesJust 4% of today's retirees said they are "living the dream," according to a new survey from asset management company Schroders. Image Source | Getty ImagesThe Schroders survey results come as more experts are pointing to a potential retirement crisis. "The retirement savings crisis in the United States is no longer looming: it is here, now," said a new report from the National Institute on Retirement Security. Not everyone agrees there is an emergencySome experts are skeptical there is a retirement savings crisis at all. Of seniors with more than $10,000 in retirement savings, 93% said they were doing okay or living comfortably.
Persons: , Deb Boyden, That's, Warren Buffett's, Boyden, Andrew Biggs, George W, Bush, EBRI, Biggs Organizations: Getty, National Institute on Retirement Security, Finance, American Enterprise Institute, Social Security, Northwestern Mutual, Research Locations: , United States
The share of renters as of February who possess hopes of "residential mobility," or the belief from renters that they one day will be able to afford a home, fell to a record low 13.4% in the central bank's annual housing survey for 2024. Pessimism about future prospects comes amid a confluence of factors conspiring against the likelihood of renters being able to transition to home ownership. Moreover, mortgage rates have remained high by historical standards. Survey respondents expect housing prices to increase 5.1% over the next year, nearly double the 2.6% expected rate in February 2023 and above the pre-pandemic mean of 4.2%. Despite prospects for the Fed to cut interest rates before the end of 2024, respondents think mortgage rates are only going to go higher.
Persons: Freddie Mac, There's Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, New York Fed, National Association of Realtors, Fed, Federal, Market Locations: Manhattan, New York City, New
Oil inches up after U.S. reimposes Venezuela oil sanctions
  + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The sun sets beyond an oil pumping unit, also known as a "nodding donkey" or pumping jack, at a drilling site operated by Tatneft OAO near Almetyevsk, Russia. Oil prices rose in early trade on Thursday, slightly paring the previous session's losses after the United States said it would reinstate oil sanctions Venezuela, while the European Union talked of fresh curbs on Iran. The U.S. said it would not renew a license set to expire on Thursday that had broadly eased Venezuela oil sanctions, moving to reimpose punitive measures in response to President Nicolas Maduro's failure to meet his election commitments. Looking to prevent a wider conflict, European Union leaders decided on Wednesday to step up sanctions against Iran. According to JP Morgan estimates, worldwide oil consumption so far in April has averaged 101 million bpd, or 200,000 bpd below its own forecast.
Persons: OAO, Brent, Nicolas Maduro's, Morgan Organizations: ANZ Research, European Union, Iran, The U.S . House, Federal Locations: Almetyevsk, Russia, States, Venezuela, European, Iran, U.S, United States, Israel, The, Ukraine
Dollar takes a breather as investors ponder U.S. rates outlook
  + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The yen strengthened 0.05% to 154.29 a dollar but remained close to the 34-year low of 154.79 touched on Tuesday. Japan last intervened in the currency market in 2022, spending an estimated $60 billion to defend the yen. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6439, while the New Zealand dollar eased a bit to $0.5914 after spiking 0.6% on Wednesday.
Persons: Sterling, Michelle Bowman, Kristina Clifton, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Market Committee, Federal, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, IG, Japan, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Japan, South Korea, Tokyo, Seoul
CNBC Fed Survey: Bond yields expected to remain around 4%
  + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey: Bond yields expected to remain around 4%CNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the latest from CNBC's exclusive Federal Reserve survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC, Survey
From consumer and wholesale prices to longer-term public expectations, reports this week served up multiple reminders this week that inflation isn't going away anytime soon. Data across the board showed pressures increasing at a faster-than-expected pace, causing concern that inflation could be more durable than policymakers had anticipated. The bad news began Monday when a New York Federal Reserve survey showed the consumer expectations over the longer term had accelerated in February. It continued Tuesday with news that consumer prices rose 3.2% from a year ago, and then culminated Thursday with a release indicating that pipeline pressures at the wholesale level also are heating up. The latest jolt on inflation came Thursday when the Labor Department reported that the producer price index, a forward-looking measure of pipeline inflation at the wholesale level, showed a 0.6% increase in February.
Persons: Steven Blitz, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Labor Department, department's Bureau of Labor Statistics
Opinion | Can America Survive a Party of Saboteurs?
  + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Almost four years have passed since Congress approved and Donald Trump signed a huge relief bill designed to limit the financial hardship created by the Covid-19 pandemic. The CARES Act did its job. Furthermore, fears that generous aid during the pandemic would undermine America’s work ethic — that adults would leave the labor force and never come back — proved totally wrong. So the CARES Act was a huge policy success. But given recent political developments, I’ve found myself thinking: What would have happened if Democrats in 2020 had behaved like Republicans in 2024?
Persons: Donald Trump, , San Francisco Fed, I’ve Organizations: Federal Reserve, San Francisco, Age Labor
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey: 70% of respondents say first rate cut comes in JuneCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the results from CNBC's latest Federal Reserve Survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC, Reserve Survey
Why is Donald Trump continuing to poll so strongly with voters? As unpalatable as a second Trump term would be, many pundits who tackle this question have ignored a striking fact: The typical household’s living standard improved during the three Trump years before the pandemic. The old saw that Mussolini got the trains to run on time should not be understood as an endorsement. But it is one thing to loathe Mr. Trump and hope for his defeat. The leitmotif in such arguments is that blue voters are rational political actors voting on merit while Trump is appealing primarily, if not exclusively, to irrational semi-citizens devoid of even self-interested calculation.
Persons: Donald Trump, Biden, Mussolini, Mr, Trump, Organizations: Trump, Survey, Consumer Finances
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey: Respondents expect no additional rate hikes from the Federal ReserveCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on data from the latest CNBC Federal Reserve Survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC, Survey, Federal, Reserve Survey
You may think the term "net worth" only applies to celebrities and CEOs, but it's something we all have — and we all should know it. Here's a breakdown of both median and average American net worth by age, according to the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances published in October 2023. Knowing your net worth can help you assess whether your next financial move is a good one. Empower (formerly Personal Capital) and Mint are two platforms that make tracking your net worth easy. Empower has its own net worth calculator and Mint has a net worth-specific dashboard that calls out your progress each month.
Organizations: Federal Reserve's Survey, Consumer, Federal Reserve Survey, Consumer Finances, Google, Android, CNBC, CNBC Select's, Facebook, Twitter Locations: U.S
WASHINGTON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The chance for persistent inflation to keep interest rates higher and potential losses in the commercial real estate market are among the top concerns of respondents to a Federal Reserve survey on financial stability, the U.S. central bank said on Friday. The latest version of the central bank's semiannual report found that three-quarters of survey respondents cited those two issues as prominent near-term risks. Concerns over bank stability following the failure of three large firms this spring were cited by roughly half, similar to levels seen in the May version of the report. Reporting by Pete Schroeder; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Pete Schroeder, Leslie Adler Organizations: Federal, Thomson Locations: U.S
But the income gains were largest among the highest-earning families, and fastest among white families, with income at the median actually registering small declines for both Hispanic and Black families, the Fed found in its latest Survey of Consumer Finances, conducted every three years. Median net worth rose sharply for all ethnic and income groups, the survey showed, though the lowest-earning 20% of households fared the worst, with a 2% decline on average over the period versus double-digit increases for all other income groups. The survey showed other stark contrasts. Still, Black households had the lowest median net worth at about $45,000, 27% below the next lowest, Hispanics, at about $62,000. By contrast, median household net worth for white families was $285,000 and for Asians - measured on their own for the first time in this year's survey - was $536,000.
Persons: Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Chizu Nomiyama, Aurora Ellis Organizations: Federal, Consumer Finances, Thomson
A man sleeps on chairs, in between subway platforms, at the 34th street and Broadway station in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 18 (Reuters) - American families on average saw large gains in income and wealth from 2019 to 2022, a period marked by the severe disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic and massive government spending in response, and measures of financial fragility fell, a Federal Reserve survey published Wednesday showed. But the income gains were largest among the highest earning families, and fastest among white families, with income at the median actually registering small declines for both Hispanic and Black families, the Fed found in its latest Survey of Consumer Finances, conducted every three years. Median net worth rose sharply for all ethnic and income groups, the survey showed, though the lowest-earning 20% of households fared the worst, with a 2% decline on average over the period versus double-digit increases for all other income groups. Reporting by Ann Saphir and Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Chizu Organizations: Broadway, REUTERS, Federal, Consumer Finances, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
The results were part of the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations for August. Fears of credit access have been rising steadily since early 2022, around the same time that the Fed began raising interest rates. While the Fed worries over higher prices, the inflation outlook was mixed. Expectations for inflation one year and five years out rose just 0.1 percentage point on the month, taking them respectively to 3.6% and 3%. That comes with an unemployment rate of just 3.8%, or 0.1 percentage point above its year-ago level.
Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, York Fed's Survey, Fed Locations: New, York
Regional bank stocks, in particular, gained as much as 35% before the bond warnings and downgrades began. The higher interest rates bond analysts cited hurt profits some, but most banks' net interest income and margins were higher than a year before. The ratings actions pushed the regional bank stock index 10% lower for the month-long period ending Sept. 8, according to Morningstar (the Moody's bank warning was issued August 7). By any reckoning, the argument about banks is about two things: Interest rates and real estate, specifically office buildings. The average regional bank stock rose 8% after earnings, Morgan Stanley said, with banks beating profit forecasts by an average of 5%.
Persons: Morningstar —, downgrades, Morgan Stanley, Jill Cetina, Cetina, Banks, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Scott Rechler, Jeff Greene, Alexander Yokum, Dick Bove, Bove, Yokum Organizations: First, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Getty, Moody's Investors Service, Poor's, Fitch, Morningstar, Federal Reserve, Fedwatch, RXR, Research, Odeon Capital Locations: First Republic, Regional, Moody's, U.S
The Fed next meets on Sept. 19-20, and futures markets currently expect no increase for that gathering. Primary dealers also thought ahead of the July 25-26 FOMC meeting that the Fed would be able to cut rates at the April 2024 meeting. By the final quarter of next year, primary dealers told the New York Fed they expect a 4% federal funds rate, while the market participant survey predicted 3.88%. Fed holdings peaked in the summer of 2022 at just shy of $9 trillion and currently stand at $8.3 trillion. On Wednesday, Fed officials released the meeting minutes from the July FOMC meeting that showed some division over the need for their last rate rise.
Persons: Michael S, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, Market Committee, Fed, New York Fed, Thomson
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