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☆ Dollar eyes weekly gain on slower Fed easing, inflation outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The euro was in turn on track for its worst weekly performance in seven months with a fall of 1.75%. Sterling traded 0.02% lower at $1.2666 and was similarly set to lose 2% for the week, its worst weekly fall since January 2023. Higher trade tariffs and tighter immigration under President-elect Trump's incoming administration are projected to fuel inflation, potentially slowing the Fed's easing cycle longer term. The yen was last 0.2% lower at 156.57 per dollar, on track for a weekly decline of 2.5%. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar eased 0.06% to $0.6450 and was set to lose just over 2% for the week, its worst weekly performance in four months.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Sterling, Jerome Powell, Carol Kong, CBA's, bitcoin, Joshua Chu Organizations: Traders, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S ., Treasury, New Zealand, Hong Kong Web3 Association Locations: U.S, CBA's Kong

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), after Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, in New York City, U.S., November 6, 2024. U.S. stocks slid on Thursday, as fresh comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that economic strength could warrant some patience with future rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 189 points, or 0.4%, after falling more than 250 points at the lows of the session. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully," Powell said. Those moves come after the October producer price index released Thursday rose 0.2%, matching forecasts from economists polled by Dow Jones.

Persons: Republican Donald Trump, Jerome Powell, Stocks, Powell, Tesla, Dow Jones, Donald Trump's, Jay Woods Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Republican, U.S, Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Trump, Russell, PPI, Dow, Freedom Capital Locations: New York City, U.S, Dallas

☆ 'The market is right': Former Fed policymaker Mester sees fewer rate cuts next year after Trump's victory
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. Federal Reserve could carry out fewer interest rate cuts than previously expected next year should President-elect Donald Trump's proposed global tariffs take hold, former Fed policymaker Loretta Mester said Tuesday. Markets trimmed their forecasts for rate cuts following Trump's election victory last week, with speculation growing around his tariff proposals and their implications for the world economy. It comes as concern is growing among global policymakers about the implications of Trump's fiscal plans, particularly on tariffs. "A trade war is the last thing we need," he continued. "If a trade war is to start, the European Union must not be unprepared as it was in 2018."

Persons: Donald Trump's, Loretta Mester, Mester, they're, Trump, It's, there's, —, Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: U.S . Federal, UBS European Conference, Cleveland Federal Reserve, Reuters, Trump, Bank of Finland, European Central Bank policymaker, UBS, European Union Locations: London, U.S, Europe, European

☆ Inflation data will be key hurdle to get through next week after stock market's historic postelection rally
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Inflation data in the week ahead could determine whether a stock market that surged to all-time highs after Donald Trump 's decisive victory can continue to push higher. Meanwhile, the October producer price index, which excludes shelter, is set to have risen 0.3%, consensus estimates show, up from a 0.0% reading the prior month. Initial Claims (11/09) 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (October) Earnings: Applied Materials , Walt Disney Friday, Nov. 15 8:30 a.m. Export Price Index (October) 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (October) 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Donald Trump, Hogan, We've, Nancy Tengler, Bitcoin, Harker, Tyson, Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Riley Wealth Management, FactSet, Laffer, Investments, Trump, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Atlanta Fed, Treasury, Philadelphia Reserve, Carnegie Mellon, Occidental Petroleum, Nation Entertainment, Tyson Foods, Mosaic, Treasury Budget NSA, Cisco Systems, Walt Disney, Price, Retail, Manufacturing Locations: China, U.S

☆ What the Fed’s interest rate cuts mean for your money
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But that doesn’t mean as a result interest rates are now low — or will soon be low. “‘Falling interest rates’ are not the same as ‘low interest rates.’ Interest rates are high and will only decline to ‘not as high’ as … we move into 2025,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. Credit cards: Just before the Fed cut its key rate in September, the average credit card rate was 20.78%, according to Bankrate. Another option: Try transferring your balance to a credit card from a credit union or local bank. Before the Fed’s September rate cut many of those accounts were offering yields between 4.25% and 5.3%, according to those listed on Bankrate.com.

Persons: ”, Greg McBride, Matt Schulz, Chris Diodato, they’re, Freddie Mac, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, ” McBride, Sinead Colton Grant, Colton Grant, “, Don’t, Diodato, you’re, BNY, they’ve Organizations: CNN, Reserve, Bankrate, Fed, LendingTree, Treasury, Savings Locations: Treasuries

☆ Dollar winds down after volatile week, China NPC in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar further unwound some of its sharp gains from earlier in the week as traders closed out profitable bets on a Trump presidency after his election victory. That helped lift sterling back toward the $1.30 mark, while the yen similarly got some respite and hovered closer to the 153 per dollar level. Sterling last traded $1.2983, recovering from its fall to a roughly three-month low earlier in the week. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar ticked up 0.03% to 104.44, on track to gain just above 0.1% for the week. "All eyes are on what may emerge from China's policy toolkit after the conclusion of the NPC standing committee meeting."

Persons: Donald Trump's, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Kerry Craig, Trump, Wells, Jay Bryson, Sterling, David Chao Organizations: White, National People's Congress, Trump, Federal Reserve, Morgan Asset Management, Traders, Bank of England, NPC, New Zealand, Asia Pacific, European Union Locations: U.S, Beijing, Germany, Wells Fargo, Japan, Invesco

☆ S&P 500, Nasdaq close at records and extend postelection rally as Fed cuts rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Jesse Pound | Alex Harring | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose Thursday, extending Wall Street’s rally in the wake of President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, as traders weighed the latest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 gained 0.74% to close at a record high of 5,973.10. The S&P 500 jumped 2.53% for its best post-election day in history. Those big swings were the backdrop for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut Thursday afternoon. “The balance of risks gives the Fed ample room to lower the Fed Funds rate well into 2025.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump’s, Jerome Powell, ”, Jamie Cox, Trump, Tony Roth, we’ve, ” Roth, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Dow, Treasury, Harris Financial, Wilmington Trust, “, Big Tech, Apple, Nvidia, JPMorgan, American Express Locations: Wilmington

☆ Traders see good chance the Fed cuts again in December then skips in January
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following the Nov. 6-7, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee meeting at William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 7, 2024. ET, market pricing pointed toward a 67% chance of another quarter-point cut in December and a 33% chance of a pause that month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a quarter-point December rate cut rose to more than 70% following the meeting, while the chances of a pause slipped to nearly 29%. Future rate probabilities found in the CME FedWatch Tool are derived from trading in 30-day fed funds futures contracts. Meanwhile, the odds that the Federal Reserve would skip an interest rate cut in January was around 71%.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Federal Locations: Washington ,, U.S

☆ Stock futures are little changed after major post-election rally as focus shifts to Fed: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

US election news on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. Stock futures are near flat Wednesday night after a huge market rally following Donald Trump's decisive victory in the presidential election. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 25 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both traded marginally above flat. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all notched new all-time highs in the session, while the small cap-focused Russell 2000 jumped more than 5%.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Dow, Russell, Scott Helfstein, Jerome Powell's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Traders, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, U.S ., Global, CME Group's, Moderna, Warner Bros Locations: New York

☆ The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again Thursday. Here's everything you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Federal Reserve likely will stick to the business at hand when it wraps up its meeting Thursday with another interest rate cut, but will have its eye on the future against a backdrop that suddenly has gotten a lot more complicated. The focus, though, will turn to what's ahead for Chair Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues as they navigate a shifting economy — and the political earthquake of Donald Trump's stunning victory in the presidential race. So while the immediate action will be to stay the course and enact the cut, which equals 25 basis points, the market's attention likely will turn to what the committee and Powell have to say about the future. The fed funds rate, which sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but often influences consumer debt as well, is currently targeted in a range between 4.75%-5.0%. Market pricing currently favors another quarter-point cut in December, followed by a January pause then multiple reductions through 2025.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Donald Trump's, Powell, Krishna Guha, Guha Organizations: Federal Reserve, Evercore ISI

☆ Dow set to surge more than 1,200 points as Trump is reelected
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( David Goldman | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Markets, in particular, crave certainty, and the clear path forward will allow companies to adjust their business and hiring plans. But stocks may also be reacting to Trump’s victory, in particular. Trump flipped several swing states from President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, and Republicans also took control of the Senate. So Trump’s victory, at least for now, appears to be keeping those rates somewhat higher. Other so-called Trump trades, including shares of his social media stock, Trump Media & Technology Group, surged Wednesday morning.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden’s, refocusing, Sam Stovall, Bitcoin, Crypto, Trump’s, Germany’s DAX, Australia’s, ”, Neil Newman, Hong, ” Daniel Murray Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Dow, Nasdaq, Republicans, Fed, JPMorgan, Democratic, CFRA Research, Gross, Treasury, Trump, Trump Media & Technology Group, CAC, Nikkei, Advisory, EFG Asset Management Locations: New York, Europe, Asia, China, Tokyo, Shanghai

☆ Election Day and the Fed’s rate decision approach – Where investors are finding fixed income opportunities now
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Uncertainty is the key theme for markets on the eve of Election Day, but fixed income investors say there are a few opportunities to snap up solid yield even as the market holds its breath. "We are constructive on fixed income as a whole, despite these uncertainties, and we're stressing to investors that yields are really quite attractive – and the income generation we can get from fixed income right now is quite powerful," Persson added. On the municipal bond side, offerings include the iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB) , which has a 30-day SEC yield of 3.35%. Vanguard also has its Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEB) , with a 30-day SEC yield of 3.4%. The iShares MBS ETF (MBB) has a 30-day SEC yield of 4.01% and a net expense ratio of 0.04%.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Andrew Szczurowski, Eaton, Anders Persson, Persson, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Baird Organizations: NBC News, Income, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Federal, Treasury, Muni Bond ETF, SEC, Vanguard, Bond, SPDR, MBS, Fidelity Intermediate Bond Fund, Bond Fund Locations: Washington, Nuveen

☆ Companies brace for Tuesday: Mentions of election surge on earnings conference calls
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-02 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Octavio Jones | ReutersExecutives at America's largest companies are talking publicly with investors about the presidential election more so than in recent cycles. The word "election" came up on 100 earnings calls of S&P 500 -listed firms between Sept. 15 and Oct. 31, according to FactSet. The U.S. presidential election is Tuesday Nov. 5. 'Prudent' clientsMultiple companies cited a feeling of unpredictability tied to the presidential race among consumers and business clients. To be sure, some of the "election" mentions this year were tied to unrelated events like enrollment periods for health care.

Persons: Blythe Andrews , Jr, Octavio Jones, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Richard Tobin, FactSet, John Butters, Harris, Trump, Harry Lawton, Hurricanes Helene, Andrew Watterson, Michael Bayley, Gary Hershorn, Stanley Black, Decker, Donald Allan, Decker's Allan, William Grogan, Jon Vander Ark, Eric Ashleman, hasn't, Nonfarm payrolls, Equifax, Mark Begor, Stephen Squeri, we've, Mark Parrell Organizations: Public, Reuters, America's, CNBC, U.S, Dover, Tractor Supply, Hurricanes, Southwest Airlines, Royal, Hollywood International Airport, Corbis, Republican, Republic, Boeing, Tyler Technologies, American Express, Equity Locations: Tampa , Florida, U.S, Milton, Royal Caribbean, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale , Florida, America, China

☆ Election next week holds big implications for stock market, especially the control of Congress
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

But the true implications for investors monitoring the election may lie in which party controls Congress, rather than who will sit in the White House. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 The importance of whichever party controls Congress was highlighted by Trump's recent trips outside battleground states such as New Mexico , a state that hasn't voted for a GOP presidential nominee in roughly 20 years. On the other hand, Evercore ISI's Emanuel expects a Harris victory, with a Democratic sweep of Congress, could result in the S & P 500 falling to roughly 5,700. The S & P 500 slid 1%, while the Nasdaq dipped 0.5%. Earnings season continues with about 100 S & P 500 companies confirmed to report.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, I'm, Abuhoff Jacobson, hasn't, Brian Burrell, Jay Hatfield, Harris, Hatfield, Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI's Emanuel, Jerome Powell's, Ralph Lauren, Warner, Alex Harring Organizations: NBC, Congress, House, Democratic, Republican, Hartford Investments, GOP, Thornburg Investment Management, Infrastructure Capital Advisors, Senate, Wednesday, Regional Banking, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, National, Marriott International, Diamondback Energy, Wynn Resorts, Palantir Technologies, NXP Semiconductors, PMI, PMI Services, Services PMI, Petroleum, Brands, Technology, Computer, CVS, Howmet Aerospace, Gilead Sciences, Labor, Consumer, Moderna, Molson Coors Beverage, Halliburton, Hershey Co, Warner Bros, Expedia, Akamai Technologies, Paramount Locations: New Mexico, Albuquerque, Santa Fe , New Mexico, Hartford, Albemarle, Qualcomm, Michigan

☆ Behind Friday's rally: Traders betting Fed keeps cutting rates next week
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( Hakyung Kim | In Hakyungkim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The monthly jobs report is typically closely-watched watched by traders and creates a reaction in the market. To be sure, storms in the Southeast and the Boeing labor strike were cited as downward pressures on the labor market. To Elizundia's point, fed funds futures are now pricing in 99.9% odds the central bank cuts rates by 25 basis points next week, and an 83.6% chance it lowers borrowing costs by another quarter-point percentage in December. There was no Fed meeting in October. "And yet, a deeper ponder of the numbers suggests that, beneath all the noise and disruption, is a fundamentally slowing labor market.

Persons: —, Dow jones, Elizundia, Seema Shah, Shah, Stocks Organizations: Dow, Boeing, Fed, Federal Reserve, Asset Management, U.S Locations: U.S

☆ Gold just keeps breaking records and Goldman says it has another 10% to go
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold's record-breaking rally may have even more room to run, according to Goldman Sachs. Analyst Lina Thomas forecasts the commodity will rise around 10% by December 2025, hitting the $3,000 threshold in that period. After advancing to a fresh record last week , spot gold reached an all-time high on Wednesday. "We still see significant hedging value in long gold positions in geopolitical or macroeconomic scenarios that are less friendly for equity-bond portfolios than our soft landing base case," she wrote. That said, she anticipates demand moderation could also allow for more upside.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lina Thomas, Thomas Organizations: U.S Locations: Russia, Ukraine, London

☆ While investors are focused on Big Tech earnings, a homebuilder gives a dire warning
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

There could be trouble ahead for consumers and the economy if interest rates don't come down, the latest financial results from D.R. "While mortgage rates have decreased from their highs earlier this year, many potential homebuyers expect rates to be lower in 2025," he said in a statement . Horton year to date The rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently 7%, according to Mortgage News Daily . Mortgage rates are tied to the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which has recently spiked higher. For the fiscal fourth quarter that just ended, it reported earnings of $3.92 per share on revenue of $10 billion.

Persons: Horton, David Auld, LSEG Organizations: Wall, Mortgage News, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Toll, Pulte, KB, Home Locations: Arlington , Texas

☆ The one big fear that could upend the bull market
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A chain reaction sparked by continued inflation could put the bull market to rest, according to Trivariate Research. As the bull market enters its third year, investors are wondering how much more room there is to run before a pullback is due. Now, Fed funds futures are pricing in a more than 95% likelihood of another drop to the borrowing costs at the central bank's November gathering, according to CME's FedWatch tool. In 2021 and 2022, Parker said there was a "strong and statistically significant relationship" between Fed funds futures and the price-to-earnings multiple on growth stocks. Though that connection now looks different, the Morgan Stanley alum said he would be "surprised if multiples did not compress meaningfully" if the expectation for the Fed funds rate rises from 3.5% to 5% or above.

Persons: Adam Parker, Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, Parker, Morgan Stanley, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Tudor Jones, Dow Jones Organizations: Research, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Dow

☆ Where Vanguard sees opportunity to earn income right now
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

With the Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle now underway, income investors may want to take a closer look at their portfolios. In this environment, Vanguard likes higher-quality, fixed-income assets. However, with high yield credit, Vanguard is focusing on bottom-up security selection due to the dispersion among issuers. CCC-rated bonds gained 12.5% year to date, as of Sept 30, versus the 4.3% return in AA credit, according to Vanguard. Individual investors can get access to corporate credit through mutual funds or exchange-traded funds comprising investment-grade or high-yield bonds.

Persons: Sara Devereux, Devereux, Colleen Cunniffe, Cunniffe, outsized Organizations: Federal, Vanguard, Fed, Investor, Securities, Exchange Commission, Fund Locations: Utilities

Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year Treasury was about two basis points higher at 4.047%. After jumping 12 basis points on Monday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose nearly three basis points to 4.21%, a level it has not reached in three months. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield continued its gains on Tuesday after Federal Reserve officials urged caution on the path of interest rate cuts. It is a quiet week on the data front, but a busy week for Federal Reserve commentary, with an array of policymakers delivering speeches. Rates have actually increased since the Fed cut rates by a half point one month ago.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Dallas Federal, Kansas, Traders Locations: U.S

☆ We're buying more shares on the dip in this Fed rate-cut stock tied to housing
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Following Tuesday's trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 145 shares of HD, increasing its weighting to 1.65% from 1.14%. Dow stock Home Depot has dropped $18 per share — or a little more than 4% — since making a new high of $418 last Wednesday. Some of this decline is probably due to profit-taking since the stock has gone straight up since Sept. 6. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Jim Cramer's, nonfarm payrolls, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Dow, Home, Federal, UBS, CNBC

☆ The commercial real estate recovery is on, but the rebound may be uneven
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Howard Schnapp | Newsday | Getty ImagesThe tide could be turning for commercial real estate. That could give interest rate-sensitive sectors such as commercial real estate long-awaited positive momentum. While lower rates are not a "magic bullet," the easing of the Fed's monetary policy "lays the groundwork for a commercial real estate recovery," analysts wrote in a follow-up report in late September. More than $40 billion in transactions occurred during the second quarter, a 13.9% jump quarter over quarter, but still 9.4% lower year over year, according to real estate data intelligence firm Altus Group. While these dynamics could set the stage for a broader recovery, with some major subsectors such as commercial retail real estate picking up in tandem, the path forward will likely be uneven.

Persons: Howard Schnapp, Alan Todd, Todd, Willy Walker, Walker, Dunlop, what's, Wells, Wells Fargo, —, Chad Littell, Littell Organizations: Newsday, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, CNBC, REIT, Real, Board, New York, U.S, Capital Locations: Melville , New York, Wells, U.S, Manhattan, Wells Fargo

☆ Small caps just hit levels not seen in nearly three years
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Fred Imbert | Kavitha Shastry | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Small-cap stocks are looking very good right now. Lower rates can boost smaller companies by allowing them to borrow money for cheaper and expand their businesses. Smaller companies are more vulnerable to economic cycles. Despite this recently strong performance, small caps are still lagging their large-cap counterparts for the year. To be sure, some on the Street are pointing to another driver for small caps: the potential of a Trump victory on Election Day.

Persons: Russell, IWM, JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Cantor, Howard Lutnick Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Insight Enterprises, Trump Locations: China

☆ UBS sees S&P 500 soaring to 6,400 by the end of 2025
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Strategist Jonathan Golub raised his 2025 S & P 500 target to 6,400 from 6,000 in a note to clients released Tuesday. "UBS economists forecast 3.7% nominal GDP in 2025 (1.6% real), roughly in line with long-term averages," he said. Golub also noted that a "sharp decline in Fed Funds will likely increase profit margins by 20 [basis points] via lower interest expense." The Fed lowered its benchmark fed funds rates a half a point, to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%, in September. Bottom line: Stocks could consolidate to end 2024 before scaling new heights in the new year, based on UBS' outlook.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, Stocks, Golub doesn't, Goldman Sachs Organizations: UBS, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Monday's

☆ 5 reasons why inflation will be stickier than expected going forward, Deutsche Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Investors need to be wary as sticky inflation remains a risk, Deutsche Bank says. But it's not yet time for investors to relax, Deutsche Bank wrote on Monday. "If inflation does return, this could have very important implications for markets," Deutsche Bank strategists said. While that much is true, history shows that easing cycles are precisely the time to be cautious over inflation, Deutsche said. The firm cited the fact that in August, US M2 money supply rose 2.0% year-over-year, the highest growth rate since September 2022.

Persons: —, Brent, Deutsche Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Service, Federal Reserve, Deutsche, Atlanta Locations: China, Israel, Iran, Iranian

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