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June 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The Bank of Japan, the most dovish major central bank in the world, announces its latest policy decision on Friday, with markets highly sensitive to signs of when and to what degree it will ditch its super-loose policy. The BOJ follows surprisingly aggressive interest rate increases and guidance recently from policymakers in Canada and Australia, and this week's hawkish signals from the European Central Bank and, to a lesser extent, the U.S. Federal Reserve. The BOJ remains the outlier among major central banks, promising to maintain its loose policy until it is sure inflation meets the 2% target. If Japanese assets are any indication, investors expect Ueda and his colleagues to err on the dovish side.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, Fed's Bullard, Waller, Barkin Organizations: The Bank of Japan, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of America, ECB, Nikkei, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Canada, Australia, Japan

☆ Morning Bid: Not so fast, debt ceiling bulls!
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin BucklandYou didn't think it would be that easy, did you? Investors are on edge after equities and the dollar got knocked back Friday, when Republican negotiators unexpectedly walked out of debt ceiling talks. Discussions now seem to be back on track, with President Joe Biden due to meet House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy later today. Another potential boost comes from the PBOC's assessment that the fundamentals of China's economic stability and long-term improvement have not changed. Luis de Guindos and Philip Lane are among Lagarde's ECB colleagues on speaking duty today.

☆ Markets next week may keep thinking about what could go right
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

At least that's the thinking of a small but growing chorus of voices on Wall Street who outline the case for further stock market gains after both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touched nine-month highs this past week. The VIX was trading around 16-17 late this week, signaling no great fear among professional traders. Walmart and other retailers this week highlighted consumers are spending less freely, but they're still spending , and that drives two thirds of the economy. Even Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote late this week that he has to entertain what could go right in markets, despite the fact his own view is fundamentally bearish. If that "upside scenario" happens, UBS sees global stocks moving 13% higher by the end of December, and the S & P 500 surging another 6% — to north of 4,400.

☆ Fed's Bullard: disinflation prospects 'good' but not guaranteed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"Monetary policy is now at the low end of what is arguably sufficiently restrictive given current macroeconomic conditions," Bullard said in remarks prepared for delivery to a monetary policy conference at the Hoover Institution. Inflation expectations, which had risen last year, are now back down to levels Bullard said is consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target. Accordingly, he said, "the prospects for continued disinflation are good but not guaranteed." Bullard said earlier this month he has an open mind about June, though rates may need to rise further. He did not specifically address the June meeting in his prepared remarks on Friday.

Investors may see rate cuts in the Fed's near future, part of a recession-breeds-accommodation view of the world, but "the labor market just seems very, very strong. The bulk of Fed policymakers as of March felt one more rate increase, which would raise the benchmark overnight interest rate to a range between 5.00% and 5.25%, was all that would be needed. Some policymakers and analysts worry it is those final steps that could push the economy into a recession. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsLIMIT GUIDANCEGiven how inflation and the economy are behaving, Bullard said, the fewer promises made the better. Recession forecasts "are coming from models that put too much weight on the idea that interest rates went up quickly," Bullard said.

☆ U.S. dollar strengthens as Fed minutes signal higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index was up 0.40% at 104.57, easing off the high of 104.59 it reached earlier in the day. "The Fed minutes were just released indicating that a few officials could have supported a 50-bps hike in the last meeting, though most backed the 25bps outcome. "The theme throughout February has been a bias towards higher rates, and these minutes are consistent with that perspective." But Fed funds futures traders are now pricing the fed funds rate to reach 5.38% in July, and remaining above 5% all year. "Stronger-than-expected U.S. data releases since the start of this month have reinforced the Fed's messages about stronger for longer interest rates."

☆ Continued rate hikes can help lock in a disinflationary trend this year: Fed's Bullard
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailContinued rate hikes can help lock in a disinflationary trend this year: Fed's BullardSt. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard addressed a business group in Jackson, Tennessee, on Thursday. CNBC’s Steve Liesman has the details.

Before the market opened, U.S. economic data showed retail sales and producer prices declined more than expected in December, while production at U.S. factories fell more than expected and November output was weaker than thought. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 613.89 points, or 1.81%, to 33,296.96 and the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 62.11 points, or 1.56%, to 3,928.86. Today's economic data served as a trigger to initiate a profit taking spell and the groups with most profits to take have been the ones that have done best last year," said Stovall. Earlier in the day, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stressed on the need to raise rates beyond 5% to bring inflation to heel. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 78 new highs and 20 new lows.

Markets reacted positively to data, which showed retail sales and producer prices declined more than expected in December. However, the gains were short-lived as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stressed on the need to raise rates beyond 5% to bring inflation to heel. U.S. stock markets have started 2023 on a strong footing on hopes that a moderation in inflationary pressures could give the Fed cover to dial down the size of its interest rate hikes. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 1.23-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.53-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded nine new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 63 new highs and 12 new lows.

☆ Fed's Bullard urges colleagues not to "stall" on remaining rate increases
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationWASHINGTON, Jan 18 (Reuters) - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Wednesday that U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers should get the policy rate of interest above 5% "as quickly as we can" before pausing rate increases needed to battle an ongoing outbreak of inflation. Asked during a Wall Street Journal event if he was open to another half point rate increase at the Fed's upcoming meeting, Bullard responded "why not go to where we're supposed to go?...Why stall?" Bullard said he felt the policy of "frontloading" rate increases with larger three-quarter-point and half-point increases had worked well, and that he saw no reason to stop until the policy rate was nearer the level seen as a likely stopping point. In projections issued in December the median official saw that "terminal" rate at around 5.1%. With the risks of inflation remaining higher than expected and the economy at this point performing better than anticipated, "let's move the policy rate to the right level...then we'll see how 2023 unfolds."

☆ Fed's Bullard says latest inflation data step in right direction
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"There's probably too much optimism inflation is going to easily come back to 2%. That is not the history of inflation," Bullard said, noting that he expects the path down to be bumpy. "We are really moving into an era of higher nominal interest rates for quite a while going forward as we try to continue to put downward pressure." The Fed's main policy rate currently sits in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50% and central bank policymakers have already made clear they hope to stop raising rates this spring. Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Gold rises, set for weekly gain with spotlight on U.S. jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,838.38 per ounce, as of 0238 GMT. The market's focus shifts to the U.S. Labor Department's closely watched nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data due at 1330 GMT. "Higher-than-expected job gains and more persistent wage pressures may be catalysts to add pressure on gold," said IG Market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. "Gold prices have been finding its way higher since November as bullish bets in dollar and yields unwind. For 2023, gold prices may continue to draw in buyers but it might face some risk from hawkish pushback from policymakers."

☆ Fed's Bullard says 2023 may be year inflation surge wilts
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Jan 5 (Reuters) - St. Louis Federal Reserve leader James Bullard said Thursday the new year could finally bring some welcome relief on the inflation front. “During 2023, actual inflation will likely follow inflation expectations to a lower level as the real economy normalizes,” he said. That saw the central bank take its overnight short-term rate target from near zero levels in March to the current 4.25% to 4.50% range. Officials have said wherever they stop with rates they are likely to stay for a while as they ensure inflation pressures are easing. Bullard also said the job market remains “strong.”Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Several factors could make 2023 a disinflationary year, says Fed's Bullard
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSeveral factors could make 2023 a disinflationary year, says Fed's BullardCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'The Exchange' to report on St. Louis Fed President James Bullard's comments about rates in 2023.

Several other Fed officials in recent days have also stressed the need to continue raising rates, albeit at a slower pace. "The Fed is trying to make sure the market doesn't get too ahead of itself," said Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion Advisor Solutions. "They're trying to walk this rhetorical tightrope where in between meetings and big data points, they're reminding the market that they're still tightening." Traders are now pricing in 89% odds of a 50-basis-point rate hike from the Fed in December and see terminal rate at around 5% in June 2023. The S&P index recorded no new 52-week high and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 12 new highs and 101 new lows.

Softer-than-expected inflation data in recent days had boosted expectations of smaller interest rate increases, but strong retail sales figures on Wednesday stoked fears that the Fed could keep tightening the monetary policy further. Several other Fed officials in recent days have also stressed on the need to continue raising interest rates, though at a slower pace. Wall Street closed the previous session lower as a grim outlook from Target Corp (TGT.N) sparked concerns about retailers heading into the crucial holiday season. ET, Dow e-minis were down 384 points, or 1.14%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 52.5 points, or 1.32%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 177.5 points, or 1.51%. U.S.-listed shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd fell 2.1% after the Chinese e-commerce giant posted a smaller-than-expected rise in quarterly revenue.

Bullard said that despite aggressive actions by the Fed this year the current target policy rate of between 3.75% and 4% remains below the "sufficiently restrictive" level the Fed feels is needed to lower inflation to its 2% target. In a graphic presented for discussion at an economic event in Louisville, Bullard showed that using even "dovish" assumptions, a basic monetary policy rule would require rates to rise to at least around 5%, while stricter assumptions would recommend rates above 7%. That entire range could fall if inflation declines more rapidly than expected, Bullard said, noting that "market expectations are for declining inflation in 2023." However "caution is warranted," he said, since the investors and Fed officials "have been predicting declining inflation just around the corner for the past 18 months." "While the policy rate has increased substantially this year, it has not yet reached a level that could be justified as sufficiently restrictive, according to this analysis, even with the generous assumptions,” Bullard said.

☆ Fed's Bullard says rate hikes have had 'only limited effects' on inflation so far
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Using standards set by Stanford economics professor John Taylor, Bullard insisted that the moves the Fed has made so far are insufficient. "Thus far, the change in the monetary policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023," he said. "To attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further," he added in the presentation. The Fed has approved four consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate increases, and markets widely expect the December FOMC meeting to yield a 0.5 percentage point move. Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNBC on Wednesday that she expects more rate increases and that a "pause is off the table" even with a lower level of rate increases.

☆ St. Louis Fed's Bullard says policy rate not yet 'sufficiently restrictive'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSt. Louis Fed's Bullard says policy rate not yet 'sufficiently restrictive'CNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Squawk Box' to report the latest comments from top Federal Reserve officials about the course of inflation and the central bank's key interest rate.

☆ Fed's Bullard says boost to dollar from rate hikes may ease
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

WASHINGTON, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate increases have contributed to the strength of the dollar against other currencies, but that may ease once the U.S. central bank reaches the point of pausing the rate hikes, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Saturday. Fed policy "has produced a stronger currency," Bullard said at a monetary policy panel on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Washington. That may ease once the Fed gets rates to a place "where the committee thinks we're putting meaningful downward pressure on inflation," so rates don't need to continue rising, he said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterIf the Fed follows through with two more 75-basis-point hikes this year, its policy rate would end 2022 in a range of 4.50%-4.75%. It is very possible that the data would come in a way that forces the (Federal Open Market) Committee higher on the policy rate. The possibility of a fifth larger-than-usual increase in December is "a little more frontloading than what I've said in the past," he added. Though some investors and economists expect the Fed will need to lift its policy rate even further, to 5% or higher, Bullard said, "I wouldn't predict that now ... Volatility in markets is to be expected when rates rise, he said, but may settle after a period of adjustment.

☆ Stocks could continue skittish trading until interest rate move calms down
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The S & P 500, Dow and Nasdaq were all down sharply for the week. The S & P was down 4.6%, ending the week at 3,693. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard , St. Louis Fed President James Bullard , San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman are among the speakers. Other global central banks joined the Fed in raising rates, and interest rates around the world rose in tandem. If those levels break, the S & P could touch 3,385 before the selling is over, he said.

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