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Dollar pulls ahead as markets focus on Trump policies, Fed outlook
  + stars: | 2024-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
After stalling for three sessions, the greenback was back on the march higher, with investors lifting the dollar index measure against its key rivals closer to a one-year high of 107.07 hit last week. The dollar has rallied more than 2% since the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election on bets Trump's policies could reignite inflation and temper the Fed's future rate cuts. The dollar index held steady at 106.56, up from a one-week nadir hit in the previous session. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict is heating up, which is further denting sentiment towards the euro alongside the prospects of trade tariffs," another "bullish cue" for the dollar index given the euro's heavy weighting, City Index's Simpson said. The dollar gave up some gains against the yen, down 0.33% at 154.91 yen , although the Japanese currency remained under pressure.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Matt Simpson, CME's, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Index's Simpson, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling, bitcoin, Bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Storm, ATACMS, Bank of Japan, Bank of England's Locations: Europe, China, Russia, Ukraine, Paris
Bitcoin pushed to a fresh all-time peak above $94,000, carried by expectations for a friendlier regulator environment for cryptocurrencies under Trump. "The 'Trump Trade' that boosted the greenback is facing challenges from Trump's controversial cabinet nominations and the escalation in the Russian-Ukraine war," DBS strategists wrote in a client note. Traders continue to pare back expectations for an interest-rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in December. The dollar added 0.9% to 154.84 yen after falling sharply to 153.28 on Tuesday following the Russia news. The euro held steady at $1.0598 , having recovered from a drop to $1.0524 in the previous session.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Bitcoin, Trump, Howard Lutnick, Trump's, pare, CME's, Jerome Powell Organizations: U.S, Moscow, Trump, Treasury, Wall Street, Commerce Department, Trump Trade, DBS, Traders, Financial Times Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Russia
AdvertisementTraders see a 45% chance the Fed pauses rate cuts in December, up from 17% last week. The rising odds come as markets digest a win for Trump, whose policies could complicate the Fed's plans. After two consecutive interest rate cuts, markets think the Federal Reserve might be ready to hit pause. AdvertisementThe rising odds come as markets continue to digest a win for Donald Trump, and as Fed officials have sounded cautious on the path of future policy easing in recent remarks. AdvertisementThe rising odds of a pause also come as Fed speakers this week have struck a cautious tone.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, David Kelly, Jerome Powell, he'd, Trump, JPMorgan's Kelly, They're, Kelly, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Cook, Powell Organizations: Trump, Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, Federal, University of Virginia Locations: West Palm Beach , Florida, Charlottesville, Dallas
Donald Trump's proposed tariffs will dent U.S. economic growth going into 2026, said Morgan Stanley's chief global economist Seth Carpenter. In the event that they are enacted all at once, they could result in a "big negative shock" to the economy, Carpenter told CNBC's Sri Jegarajah on the sidelines of Morgan Stanley's annual Asia Pacific Summit in Singapore. Carpenter, who maintained Morgan Stanley's base case of these tariffs being spread over 2025, said they would lead to higher inflation. "Then into 2026, we think growth starts to come down a great deal in the U.S. because of those tariffs and some of the other policies," he cautioned. Very clear, tariffs are a drag on growth for the U.S., not just for the countries that the tariffs are put on," Carpenter added.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Morgan Stanley's, Seth Carpenter, Trump, Carpenter, CNBC's Sri, Morgan, Mark Malek, Siebert, Joe Biden, Trump's, Malek, Ben Emons Organizations: Asia Pacific Summit, Microsoft, Apple, U.S . Federal Reserve, FedWatch Advisors Locations: China, CNBC's Sri Jegarajah, Morgan Stanley's, Singapore, U.S
AdvertisementInflation's downtrend may not be as straightforward as some investors think, according to Charles Schwab. Immigration reform could mean higher labor costs," the note added. Labor costs risingLabor costs have accelerated in recent months, with unit labor costs among all workers in the business sector rising to 3.4% year-over-year in the third quarter, according to Federal Reserve data. Markets are beginning to dial back expectations for further rate cuts in response to inflation concerns," Schwab strategists said. Charles Schwab, Citi Economic Surprise Index"Stronger growth suggests that the Fed may not lower short-term rates as much as anticipated just a few months ago.
Persons: Charles Schwab, Donald Trump, Trump, Schwab, It's Organizations: Trump, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, Federal Reserve, Unit, Bloomberg, Treasury, Business, Citi
5 things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead
  + stars: | 2024-11-17 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +10 min
October retail sales, released Friday morning, came in slightly ahead of expectations, indicating a 0.4% monthly increase, versus a 0.3% increase expected. Disney's reported strong earnings and its stock advanced more than 16% for the week as a result. In the week ahead, we will get earnings from three Club names, including the highly anticipated quarter from Nvidia, and a couple of housing market-related updates. The Street is looking for Nvidia sales of $33.1 billion in its fiscal Q3 and earnings of 75 cents per share. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Donald Trump, Friday's, Jerome Powell, Powell, That's, YTD We're, we're, Jensen, Trump, Nvidia's, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Angela Weiss Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Fed, Disney, Depot, Nvidia, TJX Companies, Home Goods, Blackwell, Palo Alto Networks, Home Depot, Stanley, Walmart, Viking Holdings, Sonoma, WSM, Baidu, PDD Holdings, Deere & Co, Warner Music Group, Intuit, Ross Stores, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Getty Locations: Maxx, U.S, China, Palo, VIK, Williams, New York City
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the opening bell on Nov. 13, 2024. Stock futures were slightly higher on Sunday night as Wall Street awaits a major earnings week and monitors a seemingly fizzled out postelection rally. S&P futures added 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2%. The next major catalyst for the market this week will be Nvidia earnings, which are set to be released on Wednesday. Earnings from Palo Alto Networks and several major retailers, including Walmart , Target and Ross , are also on deck this week.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jerome Powell, selloff, FactSet's John Butters Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Traders, Blackwell, Palo Alto Networks, Walmart, Target Locations: 18.680.12, Palo
ET, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by more than two basis points to 4.4453%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury rose by more than three basis points to 4.3307%. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday as investors digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's latest comments, and awaited further economic data. The remarks come after the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter point last week. Investors will turn their attention to further economic data due to be published on Friday, including retail sales, industrial production, and import prices.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, Powell's Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Investors, Fed
Markets sink: Stocks are taking it on the chin Friday, capping off a week in which the S & P 500 fell about 2%. Bright spots : The two best-performing S & P 500 sectors this week are financials and energy. Health care was far and away the worst-performing group in the S & P 500. Next week: There's 11 companies in the S & P 500 reporting next week. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .
Persons: Jim Cramer, There's, Donald Trump's, Jerome Powell, Trump, , Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Eli Lilly, we'll, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Traders, – BlackRock, Energy, Coterra Energy, Disney, Department of Health, Human Services, pharma, Nvidia, Walmart, Viking Holdings, TJX Companies, Palo Alto Networks, Target, Williams, Club, BJ's, Ross Stores, Baidu, PDD Holdings, GE Healthcare, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Wells Fargo, Sonoma, Snowflake, Palo Alto
Dollar eyes weekly gain on slower Fed easing, inflation outlook
  + stars: | 2024-11-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The euro was in turn on track for its worst weekly performance in seven months with a fall of 1.75%. Sterling traded 0.02% lower at $1.2666 and was similarly set to lose 2% for the week, its worst weekly fall since January 2023. Higher trade tariffs and tighter immigration under President-elect Trump's incoming administration are projected to fuel inflation, potentially slowing the Fed's easing cycle longer term. The yen was last 0.2% lower at 156.57 per dollar, on track for a weekly decline of 2.5%. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar eased 0.06% to $0.6450 and was set to lose just over 2% for the week, its worst weekly performance in four months.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Sterling, Jerome Powell, Carol Kong, CBA's, bitcoin, Joshua Chu Organizations: Traders, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S ., Treasury, New Zealand, Hong Kong Web3 Association Locations: U.S, CBA's Kong
Gold traded little changed on Friday, but was set for its worst week in more than three years, hurt by a stronger U.S. dollar amid expectations of fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,569.69 per ounce by 0308 GMT after a five-session slide. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday steady economic growth, a strong job market, and persistent inflation justify caution in cutting rates quickly. With a quiet U.S. calendar next week, gold could rebound, potentially retesting $2,600 level, Simpson said. Spot silver rose 0.2% to $30.52 per ounce, platinum edged up 0.1% to $940.68 and palladium added 0.5% to $946.00.
Persons: Gold, Donald Trump's, Fawad, Jerome Powell, Trump, Matt Simpson, Simpson Organizations: U.S ., Trump, Forex.com
What exactly President-elect Donald Trump's second term means for the stock market will be the question investors continue to grapple with in the week ahead. Nvidia earnings results will also be on deck as investors deal with stubbornly high interest rates as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged past 44,000 for the first time ever, and the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite similarly posted new records. Sales of Blackwell and Grace Blackwell are expected to start to show up in results next year. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF has surged 11% this month.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jimmy Chang, Jensen Huang, CNBC's, Blackwell, Grace Blackwell, Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler, Kumar, Jensen, Donald Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Novavax, Ken Mahoney, Trump, There's, Mahoney, Rockefeller's Chang, Chris Rupkey, Jerome Powell Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Rockefeller Global Family, Treasury, Nvidia, Blackwell, Health, Human Services Department, Moderna, Asset Management, Regional Banking ETF, Federal, White, FWDBONDS, Housing, Walmart, Lowe's, Palo Alto Networks, Philadelphia Fed, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Ross Stores, Intuit, Deere, PMI, PMI Manufacturing, PMI Services Locations: China, U.S, NAHB, . Kansas, Michigan
However, he went on to back up Chair Jerome Powell 's statement Thursday that the Fed doesn't need to be "in a hurry" to cut. "I do think if there's disagreement of what's the neutral rate, it does make sense at some point to start slowing." Getting to neutral, or a place that neither boosts nor restrains growth, is the Fed's ultimate goal, but Trump's victory could complicate the journey. The burst of euphoria after Trump's win actually complicates the situation by providing looser financial conditions that might make the Fed slower to ease. In any event, traders see a high likelihood that even if a December cut does happen, the Fed almost certainly will skip January as it assesses the landscape.
Persons: Donald Trump, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Susan Collins Organizations: Trump, Wall, Federal, Chicago Federal, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Boston Fed, Traders
Shelby Tauber | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineAfter enjoying the postelection rally, investors are turning their attention to issues like inflation and interest rates again. Powell added that the Fed doesn't need to be "in a hurry to lower rates" because the of "the strength we are currently seeing in the economy." For investors who were riding high on the postelection rally and are now descending to earth, their landing sure feels like a bumpy one.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Shelby Tauber, Powell, Rick Rieder, Rieder, , Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Sarah Min Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Fair, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Consumer, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Dallas , Texas, U.S
Wholesale prices nudged higher in October, though largely in line with expectations and mostly consistent with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. On a 12-month basis, headline wholesale inflation was at 2.4%. Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.3%, also one-tenth more than September and also matching expectations. Services rose 0.3% on the month, accounting for most of the PPI increase, and was driven largely by a 3.6% surge in portfolio management prices. Goods prices nudged higher by 0.1% after falling the previous two months.
Persons: Dow Organizations: Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, PPI, Traders, Labor Department
Housing-related inflation accounted for half of the monthly rise, and energy prices were flat after dragging down the overall index for four of the past six months. The Consumer Price Index measures price changes across commonly purchased goods and services. Still, October’s increase was to be expected, due to unfavorable comparisons from a year ago and stubborn housing-related inflation. Consensus estimates were for a 0.2% monthly increase and a 2.6% annual increase in the overall CPI, according to FactSet. A potential ‘inflation shock’ in the wingsAlthough the broader US economy survived the sharpest inflation run-up seen in a generation, Americans’ finances — and their sentiment — were far from unscathed.
Persons: , ” Stephen Juneau, Donald Trump, Larry Summers, Kate Bolduan, Trump’s, Lindsay Rosner, Jerome Powell Organizations: CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics ., Bank of America, BLS, , Trump, Biden, CNN News Central, Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs Asset Management Locations: Ukraine
So far on Wednesday, the stock market was largely ignoring the morning's inflation report because the main CPI reading was as economists expected. But a look deeper into the report spells trouble for a stock market — and president-elect — that are going to want the Federal Reserve to keep cutting rates throughout next year to keep fueling the bull market. However, in recent months, policymakers have focused more on the headline number, saying shelter costs, which have an outsized influence on core CPI, will come down. But core inflation has remained unusually stubborn, suggesting the Fed may have to hold rates higher than investors were previously anticipating. Core CPI showed a third straight monthly increase of 0.3%, bringing the annual rate to 3.3%.
Persons: Chris Rupkey, Jerome Powell, Rupkey, Donald Trump, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, White, Washington , D.C Locations: Washington ,
ET, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by more than four basis points to 4.3550%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury — which is the most sensitive to interest rate expectations — rose by more than six basis points to 4.3149%. U.S. Treasury yields jumped on Tuesday as investors continued to digest what President-elect Donald Trump's election win could mean for interest rates, and awaited key economic data — including inflation — later this week. It comes after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for a second consecutive time last week, by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%. Federal Reserve officials including Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin and Federal Reserve board governor Christopher Waller will also speak on Tuesday.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Thomas Barkin, Christopher Waller Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Traders, Federal, Richmond Federal, FactSet
Gold extends decline; investors await U.S. data, Fed comments
  + stars: | 2024-11-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices fell for a second straight session on Monday, while investors prepared for U.S. economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials this week for more clarity on the future direction of U.S. interest rates. Gold prices fell for a second straight session on Monday, while investors prepared for U.S. economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials this week for more clarity on the future direction of U.S. interest rates. "We may expect the Fed to be more cautious in its easing process ahead, which could cap gold prices," Yeap said. Several Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak this week. Additionally, U.S. consumer and producer price index data, weekly jobless claims and retail sales figures are due this week.
Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, Donald Trump's, Yeap, Bullion, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders Locations: Beijing
The 10-year Treasury yield fell by less than one basis point to 4.3062%. The October CPI is expected to rise 0.2% on a monthly basis and to have risen 2.5% on a yearly basis, according to economists polled by FactSet. Core inflation is expected to remain steady at 0.3% and 3.3% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively. Meanwhile, the October PPI is expected to have risen by 0.3% last month and 2.3% on a yearly basis. Last week, Fed officials lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Thomas Barkin, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, FactSet, Federal Reserve, Richmond Federal, Traders, Fed Locations: U.S
Fed may skip December rate cut, says FedWatch's Ben Emons
  + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed may skip December rate cut, says FedWatch's Ben EmonsBen Emons, FedWatch Advisors, joins 'Fast Money' to talk what's ahead for the Federal Reserve.
Persons: FedWatch's Ben Emons Ben Emons Organizations: FedWatch Advisors, Federal Reserve
Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Friday as investors considered the outlook for interest rates and the economy after the Federal Reserve's latest rate cut decision. Treasury yields had tumbled on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%. The Fed began easing rates at its previous meeting in September with a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction. One Fed meeting remains on the agenda for this year on December 17 to 18, for which traders were last pricing in an around 75% chance of another rate cut, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Federal Reserve, Fed
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Powell, in yesterday's press conference, maintained that "the election will have no effect on our policy decisions." According to the futures market, just 30.4% of traders think the Fed will cut rates again in January. "By December, we'll have more data, I guess one more employer report, two more inflation reports and lots of other data," Powell said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Caballero, Reynolds, Jim Reid, Trump, Scott Helfstein, Powell, we'll, that's, , Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring Organizations: Federal Reserve, AFP, Getty, CNBC, Deutsche, Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Global, Congress, Fed Locations: Washington , DC
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, the Fed cutting interest rates yesterday was never really in doubt . Additional rate cuts aren't as clear, though, as Donald Trump's proposed widespread tariffs could slow down the Fed's plans . The market is indicating inflation could lead the Fed to keep borrowing rates high. AdvertisementGreg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, told Insider Today that Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't indicate a pause in cuts was coming in December during Thursday's press conference.
Persons: , MANDEL NGAN, Chelsea Jia Feng, Donald Trump's, Paul Krugman, It's, Chip Somodevilla, Greg McBride, Jerome Powell didn't, Powell, McBride, There's, Dominique Lapointe, Lapointe, Trump, ANGELA WEISS, Morningstar, Trump's, Dave Sekera, Goldman execs, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Donald Trump, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Elon Musk, David Zaslav, Zaslav, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Ella Hopkins, Amanda Yen, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Service, Getty Images, BI, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, Manulife Investment Management, Morningstar, Elon, Trump, Keystone State, Big Tech's, Walmart, Target, Costco, Big Media, Warner Bros, Discovery, Paramount, Sony Locations: AFP, China, Pennsylvania, New York, London
Inflation data in the week ahead could determine whether a stock market that surged to all-time highs after Donald Trump 's decisive victory can continue to push higher. Meanwhile, the October producer price index, which excludes shelter, is set to have risen 0.3%, consensus estimates show, up from a 0.0% reading the prior month. Initial Claims (11/09) 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (October) Earnings: Applied Materials , Walt Disney Friday, Nov. 15 8:30 a.m. Export Price Index (October) 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (October) 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Donald Trump, Hogan, We've, Nancy Tengler, Bitcoin, Harker, Tyson, Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Riley Wealth Management, FactSet, Laffer, Investments, Trump, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Atlanta Fed, Treasury, Philadelphia Reserve, Carnegie Mellon, Occidental Petroleum, Nation Entertainment, Tyson Foods, Mosaic, Treasury Budget NSA, Cisco Systems, Walt Disney, Price, Retail, Manufacturing Locations: China, U.S
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