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☆ Japan's aging population offers a roadmap for the US economy's inflation battle
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Eurizon strategists forecast US inflation to steadily fall to the Fed's target of 2%. Since the 1990s, Japan's aging population has caused inflation and interest rates to fall. By Eurizon's calculations, Japan's labor force peaked in 2019, at 1.7 times its size from 1950, which suggests an average annual labor force growth rate of 0.77 percent a year through the expansion. Similarly, China's labor force peak from 2018 will likely be pushed back by new policies. Eurizon SLJ Capital LimitedAs more countries follow Japan's demographic path, inflation should follow a similar trajectory.

Persons: —, Stephen Jen, Joana Freire, Jen, Freire Organizations: Service, Japan, JPMorgan, Bank of, SLJ, Bank of America Locations: Japan, South Korea, Italy, China, EU, India

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. A near-miss on a debt ceiling showdown in the Spring led to the loss of another Triple-A sovereign credit rating. A fiscal adjustment akin to the one enacted in 1993 would be enough to do that again over 5 years. "However, this looks unlikely anytime soon given congressional gridlock, a lack of political attention to deficit reduction and the upcoming 2024 election," it concluded. On current poll readings at least, next year's election will do nothing to end the fiscal war.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, it's, Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden, Erik Nielsen, what's, Stephen Jen, Jen, Trump, Biden, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, William Maclean Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Presidential, AAA, Democrat, Biden, Trump, Congress, Ukraine, Treasury, Republican, Reuters, GRIDLOCK, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, loggerheads, Russia, Ukraine, United States

LONDON, Aug 23 (Reuters) - The United States and China may feel some financial detente is wise at this point - even if goading one another plays well domestically. But elements of the once-feared bind of 'mutally-assured financial destruction' (MAFD) still apply. Pulling the rug out from under either - battering U.S. and Chinese demand in effect - seems to make little economic sense at least. America had new markets and investments and a seemingly durable new creditor that kept borrowing rates low and consumption up. Falling China Share of Foreign US Treasury HoldingsChina FX Reserves vs Global ReservesUS Treasury Debt Climbs as Fed Pulls Back'MAFD'But is that where the situation has landed post-pandemic?

Persons: Larry Summers, Summers, Goldman Sachs, Jim O'Neill, O'Neill, Gina Raimondo's, Stephen Jen, Eurizon SLJ, Treasuries, Deepa Babington Organizations: U.S . Treasury Securities, ., Treasury, Foreign US Treasury Holdings China FX, Global Reserves, U.S ., Commerce, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: United States, China, Washington, Ukraine, Taiwan, Hong Kong, U.S, Beijing, America

☆ India just ditched the dollar and used its own currency to buy a million barrels of oil from the UAE
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

India bought 1 million barrels of oil from the United Arab Emirates using its own currency instead of US dollars. The Indian Oil Corp settled a payment in rupees with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. Nations including India, Russia, and other BRICS members have been pushing to de-dollarize. Monday's deal marked India's first crude oil payment to the UAE in rupees. Leaders from BRICS nations — a bloc that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — have made a particular push for their own non-dollar currency.

Persons: Dedollarization, Stephen Jen Organizations: United, Indian Oil Corp, Abu, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, Nations, Service, UAE, Eurizon Locations: United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi, India, Russia, Wall, Silicon, UAE, China, France, Israel, Brazil, South Africa, Argentina

☆ Welcome to the Dollar War: a Global Fight Over America's Economic Dominance
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +17 min

The US even reminded everyone just how influential the buck is when it effectively froze Russia out of the global financial system with sanctions last year. Becoming the issuer of the global reserve currency is about trust. The US has controlled the global reserve currency for 102 years — giving it a special status in the world economy. Still, given that the country controlling the global reserve currency holds that status of an average of 94 years, history seems to indicate it's high time for a successor. Why shouldn't the financial world resemble something closer to the mosaic of cultures, politics, and nations that exists today?

Persons: Chenzi Xu, there's, Xu, —, Ron Temple, Gregory Brew, Eurasia's Brew, dollarizing, Stephen Jen, Jen, we've, Stanford's Xu, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Josh Lipsky, " Lipsky, It's, Alexander Wise, Jan Loeys, Loeys, dollarization, Wise, Lazard's Temple, isn't, Phil Rosen Organizations: Stanford, Federal, European Central Bank, People's Bank of China, Lazard, Publishing, Getty Images, International Monetary Fund, Bank of International Settlements, Eurasia Group, Sandman's, Eurizon, IMF, Atlantic Council, JPMorgan Locations: Russia, Israel, France, China, America, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Bolivia, Iraq, South Africa, Beijing

☆ Partial de-dollarization is possible, but China won't dethrone the greenback even if it becomes the world's largest economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan strategists said dollar dominance isn't going away anytime soon, regardless of China's growth. Partial de-dollarization in possible as China's yuan becomes a bigger part of global commerce. De-dollarization can stem from sliding faith in the dollar, or developments that enhance the credibility of other currencies. "Historical experience thus suggests that if China were to overtake the US as the world's largest economy around 2030, dollar dominance may persist even into the second half of the 21st century." The bank maintained that China stands as the only competitor eager to supplant the role of the dollar and the US economy in the long-term.

Persons: —, reallocations, Stephen Jen, Eurizon Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, International Monetary Locations: Great Britain, China

☆ Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says to expect a gradual decline in the dollar's share of global reserves, but greenback remains dominant
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said to expect a gradual decline in the dollar's share of global reserves. "I would say there is virtually no meaningful workaround for most countries for using the dollar as a reserve currency," Yellen replied. "We should expect over time a gradually increased share of other assets in reserve holdings of countries — a natural desire to diversify," she said. The US dollar's reserve status has seen gradual erosion for two decades, and it saw a steep decline in 2022 even though its strength in international trade remains unchallenged, Eurizon SLJ Asset Management said in April. But US lawmakers aren't helping the dollar's cause, Yellen suggested.

Persons: Janet Yellen, —, Warren Davidson, Yellen, Vicente Gonzalez, aren't Organizations: Service, Financial Services Committee, Rep, US, Management Locations: Ohio, China, Texas, France

☆ De-dollarization and global reserves dominance, explained by a top currency economist and the inventor of the 'dollar smile' theory
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Eurizon SLJStephen Jen is a leading economist, the cofounder and CEO of Eurizon SLJ, and inventor of the "dollar smile" theory. Phil Rosen: You pointed out recently that the dollar saw a steep erosion in 2022 as a global reserve currency. More likely, we will evolve from a unipolar reserve currency world to a multi-polar world. Here's what he said on a potential "tripolar" reserve currency setup if the dollar loses dominance. And here are the top stories from markets this week:Lauren Simmons, a trader at the New York Stock Exchange.

Analysis of global central bank coffers does show the dollar's share of overall reserve holdings is gradually being chipped away - but the official sector is not selling dollar-denominated assets. In fact it's still buying them on aggregate, and the private sector is too. The overseas private sector was also a solid buyer of U.S. agency debt, further calling into question the narrative in some market quarters that the dollar's status as the world's preeminent currency is rapidly eroding. Jen calculates that the dollar's share of official global reserves slumped to 47% last year, down from 55% the year before and 73% in 2001. Including the private sector, total foreign inflows into Treasuries over the past two years have been substantial.

☆ China wants the dollar's dominance to fade - and the US should defend its reserve currency status, Biden nominee says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Lawmakers should raise the debt ceiling to defend the greenback's reserve currency status, he says. "I think there's some evidence that it does," he told Tennessee Senator Bill Hagerty, who had asked whether China wants the dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency to fade. "There are extremely important privileges, and even in the realm of security [there are] benefits to having the reserve currency," Bernstein added. "One of the most obvious is of course sanctions — if you control the reserve currency, you are able to impose sanctions as we've done on Russia to considerable effect." Read more: The anti-dollar drive spearheaded by Asia has spread to Europe, with France growing sour on the greenback's dominance.

☆ Ray Dalio says fewer countries want to hold the dollar as China trade grows and Russia sanctions expose new risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Global central banks are less willing to hold the dollar, billionaire investor Ray Dalio said. One reason is that China's share of global trade is rising while the US share is falling. Another is that Western sanctions against Russia have exposed new risks for holding dollar assets. But, with China increasing the yuan's use in global trade, the future necessity for the greenback may be ebbing. Those sanctions "increased the perceived risk that those debt assets can be frozen in the way that they've been frozen for Russia," Dalio said.

☆ The US dollar's recent slide is flashing a bullish signal for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The US dollar's recent decline is a bullish signal for global markets, DataTrek reports. Since its September peak, the US Dollar Index has fallen by 11.3%. "A weaker dollar at this point in the global economic cycle is both consistent with the past and a generally bullish sign about the future," he wrote. It is, however, how markets signal better times to come." Historically, the US Dollar Index, which compares the greenback's strength to a basket of currencies, spikes in moments of economic crises, such as in 2009 and 2022.

MSCI's Europe index, for example, still trades more than a point below its average historic valuation - with the index priced at less than 13 times its 12-month forward earnings. The top sectoral weighting in the STOXX Europe 50, for example, is healthcare - at almost 23%. With British-based stocks the biggest country weighting in the STOXX Europe index at 26%, the other top four sectors in the index include the food, beverages and tobacco grouping, consumer products, industrial goods and energy. The dollar peaked late last year against most European currencies as the Federal Reserve raced to ratchet up interest rates. Some think the slide in the dollar index of some 12% since last September is barely half of the whole move.

Although Britain saw the same easing of wholesale energy prices, UK industry - by stark contrast - continued to contract this month. More than two thirds of the 42 economists polled by Reuters this month expect another hefty 50 basis point rate rise to 4% next week, while their average 'terminal rate' forecast implies yet another quarter point rise to 4.25% after that. Despite economic funk, the implied peak BoE rate derived from money and swaps markets shows almost another full percentage point of hikes to 4.5% before the Bank calls it quits later this summer. Either way, the eventual outcome leaves the BoE and the pound in something of a half way house. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsUK vs Euro zone economic surprise gapThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

But you have to go back centuries in some cases to get anything nearly as bad as 2022 for 'safer' sovereign bonds. "2023 will be the year of the bond," claimed Chris Iggo, chair of the AXA IM Investment Institute. "Road to recession - bullish bonds and quality credit," was how SocGen entitled their view. And while stock volatility makes forecasters nervy, there's a clear attraction for long-term funds in seeking both the fixed income as well as the lift to bond funds when sub-par price discounts disappear into maturity for most high-quality names. "Long high quality bonds in the U.S. and Europe seems like an obvious strategy for 2023," said hedge fund manager Stephen Jen at Eurizon SLJ Capital.

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