Disruptions may hit mine output, leading analysts to trim a forecast surplus for this year to 133,000 tonnes from 165,000 tonnes of oversupply in the previous poll. Analysts have marked up their estimates for an aluminium market surplus this year to 113,500 tonnes from 80,535 tonnes forecast in January. "Due to relentless mined nickel supply growth in Indonesia, and its broad-based nickel-bearing exports, we remain longer-term bears on the global nickel price," said Tom Price at Liberum. Analysts expect LME cash nickel prices to average $22,273 a tonne in the third quarter, down 11% from current levels. They also expect the global nickel market to see a surplus of 112,000 tonnes this year and an oversupply of 89,500 tonnes in 2024.

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