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☆ Stocks stall, yields climb on "higher for longer" rate worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. stock futures , , were slightly firmer ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, signalling a pause after sharp losses on Thursday amid uncertainty over interest rates going into 2024. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a 16-year high of 4.508%, later trading at 4.48%, while 30-year yields hit their highest in a dozen years. The Fed revised downwards its unemployment rate forecast for next year, and if the U.S. economic data continued to improve, it would put "upside risk" on interest rates, making the need for a soft landing all the greater, Osman added. Ten-year Japanese government bond futures rallied though cash yields were little changed and near decade highs at 0.745%. Gold firmed 0.3% to $1,925 an ounce despite pressure from the stronger dollar and bond yields.

Persons: what's, Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, Osman, Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, Susan Collins, Lisa Cook, Craig Ebert, Huw Jones, Tom Westbrook, Edmund Klamann, Kim Coghill, Rashmi Organizations: Bank of Japan, Global, Nasdaq, Treasury, ING, Bank of, Japan's Nikkei, Investors, Bank of England, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Europe, U.S, Asia, Japan, China, Sweden, Norway, BNZ, Wellington

Yet a sharp drawdown in the excess savings created by COVID-19 could be a curve ball that slams into bullish sentiment. U.S. excess savings have fallen to around $500 billion from around $2.1 trillion in August 2021, the San Francisco Federal Reserve estimates. In Europe, Deutsche Bank reckons excess savings in Sweden, struggling to contain a property slump, have dwindled. Reuters GraphicsRUNNING OUTDefinitions for excess savings differ, but economists generally agree that this means savings that went beyond trend levels during the pandemic. Cardano chief economist Shweta Singh said U.S. pandemic excess savings are likely to be depleted by year-end.

Persons: Rachel Adams, Janus Henderson, Oliver Blackbourn, Shweta Singh, Guy Miller, Jamie Dimon, Ben, Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, Janus Henderson's Blackbourn, U.S . Russell, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Blackbourn, Zurich's Miller, Simon Bell, Guilluame Paillat, Paillat, Naomi Rovnick, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Oxford, REUTERS, San Francisco Federal, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Insurance Group, Ryanair, JPMorgan, Unilever, U.S ., London's, Bank of, Aviva, Thomson Locations: Britain, London, China, Europe, U.S, Sweden, United States, downturns, Australia

☆ Wall Street on ice ahead of big tech earnings, UK shines
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Tech stocks have been boosted by exuberance about artificial intelligence as well as hopes the Federal Reserve will soon end the aggressive interest rate rises that bludgeoned valuations of more speculative businesses in 2022. Owning big tech is also the "most crowded" trade in global markets, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned in a note to clients this week. This was just the latest downside surprise on prices for a major economy after more than 18 months of central banks cranking interest rates higher. Sterling lost 0.96% to trade at $1.291 as market bets that the Bank of England would raise interest rates as high as 6%, from the current 5%, faded out. London's blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) added 1.6% and the domestically focused FTSE 250 (.FTMC) rose 3.2%, on track for its best daily performance since February 2.

Persons: Sterling, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, BofA, Stuart Kaiser, Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, BoE, Samuel Tombs, Kenneth Broux, Germany's, Tom Westbrook, Bernadette Baum, Kim Coghill, Chizu Organizations: Stock, Wall, Tesla, Netflix, Nasdaq, Tech, Reserve, Bank of America, Citi, Bank of England, Macroeconomics, Sterling, . Federal, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: London, Sydney

☆ Tamer U.S. inflation lifts global stocks to new 2023 high, dollar slides
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Interest rate futures showed markets have fully priced in another rate hike from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) later this month, but expectations of any further increases have faded. The softer dollar helped gold prices advance to near one-month highs, while oil prices hovered above $80 a barrel. The MSCI All Country stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) was up 0.5% at 691 points, hitting a new high for the year. It is up 13.5% so far in 2023, though still not wiping out all of the near 20% loss in 2022. Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $80.27 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were slightly firmer at $75.80.

Persons: Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, Osman, Stocks, Premier Li Qiang, Bonds, Huw Jones, Stella Qiu, Lincoln, Kim Coghill, William Maclean, Chizu Organizations: PPI, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Federal, Market, Arbuthnot Latham & Co, Japan's Nikkei, Premier, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Asia, Europe, U.S, CHINA, China, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong

Ahead of crucial U.S. jobs data on Friday, MSCI's broad index of global stocks (.MIWO00000PUS) fell 0.3%. This view has clashed with market repricing of interest rate expectations and bond market signals that aggressive monetary tightening raises recession risks. "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said. U.S. Treasury yields continued an ascent on Wednesday, with the two-year yield, which tracks interest rate expectations, briefly touching 5.08% -- its highest level since 2007. After a series of jumbo hikes last year, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points last month.

☆ Nvidia cheer ripples through chips as investors assess Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, January 24, 2023. The MSCI all country share index (.MIWD00000PUS) was slightly firmer, adding to the year's 4.5% advance, after falling nearly 20% in 2022. The yield on 10-year Treasury was slightly firmer at 3.9254%. The Australian and New Zealand dollar were both slightly firmer against the dollar. Fed officials Mary Daly and Raphael Bostic are also due to make appearances later on Thursday.

☆ Stocks sag, bond yields firm as yen sinks further
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The strong dollar continued to loom over currency markets, with the yen sinking to a 32-year low against the greenback. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields touched a 14-year high, while 2-year German government bond yields rose to their highest since December 2008. But earnings are likely to fall next year which, along with anticipated interest rate hikes in the United States and elsewhere, are already largely priced into markets, Osman said. China's stock market (.SSEC) fell while Hong Kong stocks (.HSI) hit levels last seen during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The rise in the dollar and yields pushed gold lower, with prices lingering at a three-week trough on Thursday.

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