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☆ What Trump's election victory means for global investors — and why it's different to 2016
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House has sent ripples through global financial markets, with many investors looking to recalibrate their portfolios for a dramatically different policy landscape ahead. Higher Treasury yields mean higher interest rates for corporate borrowers. Trump's tariffs Perhaps the biggest concern for investors globally is Trump's campaign promise of aggressive new tariffs , including the potential for a universal 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. However, some Asian nations might benefit if higher tariffs on China prompt manufacturers to relocate. Europe Most analysts agree that U.S. trade tariffs are likely to hurt Europe, with some companies able to navigate the challenges better than others.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Russell, Mislav Matejka, David Seif, Goldman Sachs, Gareth Leather, Macquarie, Aditya Suresh, Mark Diethelm, Diethelm, Emmanuel Cau, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: White, Republican, Trump, U.S, Nasdaq, Treasury, Nomura, Federal Reserve, Asia Capital Economics, Capital Economics, U.S ., Union, Morningstar, Logitech, Barclays Locations: Congress, Treasurys, Trump's, U.S, United States, Korea, Taiwan, China, Vietnam, Asia, India, Europe

☆ Europe is seen as a loser of a Trump presidency, Barclays strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEurope is seen as a loser of a Trump presidency, Barclays strategist saysEmmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays, discusses the outlook for European stocks following Donald Trump’s historic U.S. election victory.

Persons: Emmanuel Cau, Donald Trump’s Organizations: Trump, Barclays

☆ How European investors can hedge against a Trump win, according to Barclays
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Investors in Europe who are concerned about former President Donald Trump's potential return to the White House have several options at their disposal, according to Barclays strategists. European markets are already trading with a risk premium ahead of a potential Trump win, and the investment bank believes the full impact may not be reflected in current valuations. "The possibility to bypass Congress increases the risk of tariff implementation in the event of a Trump win," said Barclays strategists led by Emmanuel Cau in a note to clients on Oct. 23. "Compared to a status quo scenario under a Harris win, a Trump win may have broader and more discriminant implications for markets." Under such a scenario, Barclays strategists warned that investors would have nowhere to hide anywhere.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Emmanuel Cau, Harris, Kamala Harris, DAX, Trump, isn't, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Barclays, Trump, White Locations: Europe, China, U.S, Russia, Ukraine

☆ Who Wall Street thinks will win the election
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Bradley Saacks | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A survey of 119 investors found that 53% think former president Donald Trump will defeat Kamala Harris. Investors believe fossil fuel and industrial companies should do well under Trump, the survey said. AdvertisementMany of the bigwigs of finance have picked their sides, but Wall Street seems to believe one candidate has the upper hand in this year's presidential election. Betting markets have leaned toward former President Donald Trump, and the financial markets have already priced in a Trump win, according to billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller. One of the world's most accurate economists, Christophe Barraud, for instance, is putting his credibility on the line for a Trump win.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Stanley Druckenmiller, —, Stan Druckenmiller, Emmanuel Cau, Trump, SumZero, Divya Narendra, Ken Griffin, Griffin, Druckenmiller, Hillary Clinton, Elon Musk, Christophe Barraud Organizations: Investors, Trump, Republican, Service, Barclays London, Billionaire Citadel, Future Investment Initiative, Tesla Locations: Saudi Arabia, Riyadh

☆ Investors getting very bullish heading into the election
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. presidential election is less than one week away, and investor positioning has gotten very bullish. "Animal spirits have been unleashed, as investors haven't wasted time positioning themselves up for a typical post-election/year-end rally," Cau said in a note. He also pointed out that these inflows come as expectations of former President Donald Trump winning next week have increased. Indeed, shares of Trump Media — which have been a market proxy for Trump's 2024 election chances — have soared a whopping 220.5% in the past month alone. "After Q3, we lack confidence that Boeing shares can outperform the market in the next 12 months."

Persons: Emmanuel Cau, haven't, Cau, Donald Trump, —, Kamala Harris, Bernstein Organizations: U.S, Barclays, Trump Media, NBC, Boeing Locations: U.S

☆ 'Don't fight the Fed': Barclays and Citi turn bullish on these stocks after rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The move prompted Wall Street giants Barclays and Citi to adopt a more optimistic stance on global cyclical stocks. Barclays believes the Federal Reserve's actions are "clearly designed to pull out all the stops to achieve a soft landing" for the economy. Barclays strategists noted that "cyclicals typically rebounded steadily after the Fed started its rate cut cycle ... as long as it was not followed by a recession." Citi strategists share a similar outlook for European stocks. "The scale of the downgrades has become so extreme of late that we're now approaching a point where negative ERI may be a useful contrarian indicator," the Citi strategists said.

Persons: Emmanuel Cau, Beata Manthey, we're, Safran, Atlas, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Barclays, Citi, Fed, Siemens, BBVA, ING, Holcim, ASM Locations: United States

☆ Stocks are near record highs despite turmoil and 'erratic price action'
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are headed for their fourth weekly gain in five weeks, up 3.5% and 5.3%, respectively. Those gains have come even after a massive but brief intraday sell-off Wednesday — which was quickly erased after the S & P 500 stayed above a key level. .SPX 5D mountain SPX 5-day chart Indeed, after all the wild swings, the S & P 500 is a scant 1.2% below an intraday record of 5,669.67 reached in July. "Erratic price action in equities suggests confusion amid ever changing market narratives," Cau wrote. "Therefore, equity price action may stay volatile and data dependent, until we get more clarity on the economic outlook."

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Emmanuel Cau, Cau Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Wolfe Research, Fed, Barclays Locations: U.S

☆ Markets are 'selling first and thinking later,' Barclays strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets are 'selling first and thinking later,' Barclays strategist saysEmmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays, points to pockets of opportunity in what he describes as an "indiscriminate" global sell-off.

Persons: Emmanuel Cau Organizations: Barclays

☆ Mixed data means ECB could take a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMixed data means ECB could take a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts, strategist saysEmmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays, discusses the European Central Bank’s highly anticipated monetary policy meeting and says that investors will be closely monitoring ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference for clues on the expected number of interest rate cuts later in the year.

Persons: Emmanuel Cau, Christine Lagarde’s Organizations: Barclays, Central

☆ European markets hit record highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEuropean markets hit record highsEmmanuel Cau, Barclays head of European equity strategy, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the recent performance of European equity markets, whether geopolitical risk appears to be draining out of the market, and more.

Persons: Emmanuel Cau Organizations: Barclays

☆ Stock futures inch higher Sunday after weaker-than-expected jobs report left investors looking up: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-05 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 66 points, or around 0.2%. Last week, the Dow and Nasdaq gained 1.1% and 1.4% each, while the S&P 500 gained 0.5%. But the April jobs report helps clear a path to that destination," said Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams. While the peak of the first-quarter earnings season has passed, investors are still watching key companies set to report this week, including Dow member Disney on Tuesday and Uber on Wednesday. On the economic front, Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin and New York Fed president John Williams are both scheduled to speak on Monday.

Persons: Dow, Bill Adams, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Uber, Emmanuel Cau, Tom Barkin, John Williams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, U.S ., Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Traders, Comerica Bank, Apple, Disney, Barclays, Richmond Fed, New York Fed Locations: New York City, U.S, U.S . U.S

☆ European stocks are up 7 weeks in a row. Here’s how long winning streaks typically last
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The STOXX Europe 600 hit 500 points for the first time last week, and the benchmark index has since notched yet another all-time high. When stocks fell immediately after seven weeks of gains, they lost 1.17% on average. The Stoxx Europe 600 recorded its longest winning streak between June and August 1993, when the market rose for 12 straight weeks. The weighted average of analyst price targets for the companies in the Stoxx Europe 600 points toward a 9.1% upside potential for the index, according to FactSet data. The bank has an end-of-year price target of 510 points for the Stoxx Europe 600.

Persons: Sebastian Raedler, Emmanuel Cau Organizations: CNBC, of America's, Barclays Locations: Europe

☆ Volkswagen and more: Barclays names European 'conviction' stock ideas — and gives one 59% upside
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Wall Street bank named the following five companies in its European "Conviction with Catalysts" list of stock ideas that offer strong upside potential. Enav Topping the list with the biggest upside potential is Enav , an air traffic controller company based in Italy. UCB Barclays believes Belgian biopharmaceutical company UCB can beat 2023 sales expectations thanks to its new psoriasis drug Bimzelx. Although the drug has struggled in the U.S. over side effect warnings, Barclays sees signs of healthy global demand. Volkswagen Barclays believes Volkswagen offers turnaround potential in 2024 after a disastrous 2023 and 2022.

Persons: Emmanuel Cau, Enav, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Barclays, UCB Barclays, Belgian, UCB, ABN Amro Dutch, ABN Amro, ABN, Vivendi, Volkswagen Barclays, Volkswagen Locations: Italy, U.S

☆ Earnings will 'make or break' European stocks — here's what to watch, according to analysts
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Investors will look to the upcoming earnings season to see whether stocks can recover from recent losses or if more declines are ahead. "All year, we've seen the steady weakening in European soft data and, more recently, hard data. In a note titled "Q3 Earnings - Make or break," Barclays analysts echoed that sentiment, suggesting that despite resilient earnings thus far, more mixed third-quarter economic indicators hint at equally varied results. UBS analysts have identified stocks that could surprise, both positively and negatively, when their earnings results are released in the coming weeks. Fowler said UBS analysts have historically been pretty accurate at predicting surprises, especially when combined with a value investing bias, which has tended to outperform.

Persons: Gerry Fowler, we've, Fowler, CNBC's, Fowler isn't, Emmanuel Cau, Stocks Organizations: UBS, Barclays, Santander, Ryanair, Siemens Energy, Nordic, Universal Music, AstraZeneca Locations: Europe

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 1.2% at $1,854.10 per ounce. Among those is the potential of a rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

Persons: Brent, ”, Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Noel Randewich, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 0.9% at $1,849.40 per ounce. Among those is a potential rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

Persons: Brent, ”, Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Sylvest Wealth Management, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany

☆ High oil prices don't make Europe energy stocks attractive to all
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The STOXX 600 European oil and gas index (.SXEP) is at its highest since mid-February, having gained around 13.5% in the past two months. In the same period, benchmark Brent crude has risen 18% and European natural gas prices have gained 50%. He said higher oil prices could prompt upgrades to earnings estimates, and potentially dividends too. "The whole energy sector should benefit, but the downstream sector is looking very cheap and offers a high dividend which is attractive given higher interest rates," said Cau. Bank of America strategists have an underweight rating on European energy stocks.

Persons: Heinz, Peter Bader, Brent, Mislav Matejka, Morgan Stanley, Emmanuel Cau, Andreas Bruckner, Lucy Raitano, Amanda Cooper, Miral Organizations: REUTERS, Brent, Reuters, JPMorgan, Barclays, Bank of America, Thomson Locations: Zistersdorf, Austria, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China

☆ Here's why trillions of dollars in money market funds may not restart the stock market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The 2023 stock market rally caught many investors off guard, with mountains of excess cash sitting in money market funds. "Money market balances are building up, which is unusual given how much the stock market has rallied recently. And history suggests that money market funds are not always fuel for a buy-the-dip trend to support a late-stage rally. Through that lens, the growth of money market funds in 2023 can also be linked to the regional bank crisis earlier this year. Clissold said discussions with wealth advisory clients suggest that "some of that money market fund money does leak into the stock market," albeit over time.

Persons: Emmanuel Cau, Callie Cox, Cox, Todd Sohn, Sohn, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Clissold, John Tobin, Dreyfus, I'm, corporates, Tobin Organizations: Bank of America, EPFR, Investment Company Institute, Nasdaq, Barclays, Money, Federal Reserve, Ned, Ned Davis Research, BNY Mellon Investment Management, CIO Locations: U.S

☆ Stock markets face a 'perfect storm' as high rates and China fears bite, analysts warn
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on August 16, 2023 in New York City. large scale fiscal stimulus) we acknowledge sentiment on China is unlikely to reverse sustainably on its own." Cau suggested this poses a problem for European and U.K. stocks. As such, Barclays is recommending investors should take a "barbell" approach involving allocations to cyclical and defensive stocks and a "value tilt." A value tilt refers to tipping a portfolio towards stocks perceived to be trading at a discount relative to their financial fundamentals.

Persons: Michael M, Russ Mould, bunds, Emmanuel Cau, Cau Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty, Bell, U.S, U.S . Federal, Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank, Barclays, European Equity Locations: New York City, U.S ., Silicon, China

☆ Barclays names the global stocks benefitting from falling inflation — and gives two 60% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Barclays identified several European stocks that it says could benefit from an environment of falling inflation. As interest rates remain elevated, inflation is expected to fall further toward the European Central Bank's 2% target in the coming months. The below table highlights 10 "disinflation winners" from Barclays with the biggest upside: Delivery Hero Among the stocks highlighted, shares of food delivery company Delivery Hero had the biggest upside potential. Lloyds Banking Group Barclays expects shares of U.K.-based lender Lloyds Banking Group to rise 64% over the next 12 months to £0.70 ($0.89). Together with falling provision risks we expect higher profits to drive outsized capital returns," said Barclays' analysts led by Aman Rakka in a note to clients on July 27.

Persons: Emmanuel Cau, Andrew Ross, Aman Rakka, Larissa van Deventer Organizations: Barclays, Central, Lloyds Banking Group Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group, Lloyds, Legal, General Barclays Locations: U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Soft landing fatigue
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Positive economic data tends to move stock markets, either by fueling rallies, or prompting a temporary sell-off as traders take profits. But Wall Street stock markets ended Thursday flat. Futures point to mild declines for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 on Friday. The S&P 500 has risen 16% year-to-date. Analysts have cut their estimates for S&P 500 companies' 2023 earnings by about 15% since the end of last year, Capital Economics says.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Naomi Rovnick, Emmanuel Cau, Cau, Ned Davis, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Barclays, Economics, Capital Economics, Ned Davis Research, U.S Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, University of Michigan, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Tuscany

☆ Tech and luxury goods face high bar on earnings expectations, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTech and luxury goods face high bar on earnings expectations, Barclays saysEmmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays, weighs in on the latest batch of corporate results in Europe.

Persons: Emmanuel Cau Organizations: Email Tech, Barclays Locations: Europe

☆ Forget the hype: Barclays identifies global 'A.I. winners' for the long term
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Barclays has named several global stocks that are expected to do well as the usage of artificial intelligence-related services evolves. The investment bank acknowledged that hardware and infrastructure giants, most notably Nvidia and Microsoft , are currently seeing the immediate benefits of the AI hype. Still, over the long term, it said businesses in the service sector could cash in significantly. The companies in Barclays' "Global AI Winners" basket include Canada-headquartered Telus and France's Capgemini . The below table highlights non-U.S. stocks in Barclays' basket of AI stocks.

Persons: FactSet, Emmanuel Cau, Capgemini, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Barclays, Nvidia, Microsoft, Telus, France's, Tech, Companies, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank Group, SAP, UK's Sage Group, ASM Locations: Canada, U.S, Taiwan, Tokyo, Europe, Amsterdam

☆ European equity investors hunt for big returns in small places
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The MSCI Europe SMID index of European small to mid-cap firms (.MIEU000D0PEU) is trading near 2008 lows versus the wider market in terms of valuations, including both price/earnings and price-to-book ratios. The bank's small cap basket is invested across sectors, or 'sector neutral', to make it "less prone to the ups and downs of cyclical acceleration and deceleration." But M&A remains a supportive theme, said Amundi's Matti, as big players seeking external growth can look to the small cap sector for niche expertise to add to their portfolios. "When people are trying to find alpha to add to their portfolio, small caps tend to be the place to look at," said Matti. "Ultimately, they (small caps) are a rich hunting ground for long-term investors."

Persons: Dash, Emmanuel Cau, Amundi, Cristina Matti, Amundi's Matti, Matti, Graham Secker, Morgan Stanley, ”, Bernie Ahkong, Morgan Stanley's Secker, Thomas McGarrity, Lucy Raitano, Susan Fenton Organizations: Barclays, Energy, Reuters Graphics, O’Connor, Alpha, UBS Asset Management, Data, RBC Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Europe, Amundi

☆ 'Tech is not crowded, tech is not over-owned,' strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Tech is not crowded, tech is not over-owned,' strategist saysEmmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays, discusses the outlook for equity markets, especially in the tech sector.

Persons: Emmanuel Cau Organizations: Barclays

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