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It has been less than two weeks since President Biden dropped his re-election bid and threw his support behind Vice President Kamala Harris. Already, Ms. Harris has closed the gap with former President Donald J. Trump in some national polls. The Harris campaign said it had raised more than $200 million in a week. Ms. Harris’s supporters even broke attendance records on Zoom, with one group gathering more than 160,000 people on a single call. We spoke to Zoom rally organizers, first-time campaign donors and people who were previously planning to sit the whole thing out.

Persons: Biden, Kamala Harris, Harris, Donald J, Harris’s Organizations: Trump

For decades, the mainstream Republican position on abortion rights was clear: Overturn Roe v. Wade and send the issue back to the states. But since June 2022, when the Supreme Court’s conservative majority did exactly that, Republicans have faced a question that few seemed to consider beforehand: What comes next?

Persons: Roe, Wade Organizations: Republican, Republicans

In the days since a Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty of 34 felony counts, people have mostly been asking one big question. Over the past few days, our colleagues at The New York Times and at the Siena College Research Institute have been trying to answer that question. They spoke with 1,900 people they had previously polled to find out how they are currently thinking. But some have — and they are moving away from Mr. Trump. This week, Astead speaks with voters about how they are thinking about the presidential race after Mr. Trump’s conviction, including with people in one significant group: Trump supporters who said in October that if he were convicted and sentenced, they would back President Biden.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Astead, Trump’s, Biden Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College Research Institute Locations: Manhattan

While the political world waits for a verdict in Donald Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan, we wanted to take a moment to remember how we got here — especially the broader political context of the fall of 2016. Mr. Trump is charged with falsifying business records related to a hush-money payment to the adult film actress Stormy Daniels as part of a scheme to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. Back in 2016, Mr. Trump was down in the polls and worried about losing support from women voters, who would, the thinking went, punish him at the ballot box for the lewd “Access Hollywood” tape and anything Ms. Daniels might make public. That of course is not what happened. And in the years since, assumptions about how women vote have come to feel more complicated.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, Stormy Daniels, Daniels Organizations: Mr Locations: Manhattan

Elisa Gutierrez andAs he runs for re-election, President Biden is talking about one specific issue a lot: the economy. He emphasizes the nation’s low unemployment and slowing inflation, and even rolled out a catchy nickname for the good numbers: Bidenomics. The problem for Mr. Biden is that few Americans seem to agree that the economy is strong. They think the opposite.

Persons: Elisa Gutierrez, Biden

If the 2024 presidential election were a road trip, we would now be at the part where you start to wonder: Are we there yet? The matchup is set, but there’s still such a long way to go until November. And one of the things we’ve noticed about the questions that you’ve been sending in is that you’re starting to mix it up. You want to know what Donald Trump’s possible vice-presidential picks are, how down-ballot races are shaping up, and what difference celebrity endorsements could make.

Persons: you’ve, Donald Trump’s

Here’s what we know when it comes to the antiwar protests on college campuses and electoral politics: President Biden does seem to have a problem with young activists on the left. But whether or not he has a larger problem with young voters in general remains to be seen. Which is why one statement from a more mainstream group, saying the administration is on a “mistaken route,” is worth considering. The College Democrats of America. Which means, they’re the young people who would seem most likely to support Mr. Biden.

Persons: Biden, That’s, Mr Organizations: The College Democrats of America, Democratic National Convention

astead herndonLast year, the comedian was Roy Wood Jr., a veteran of “The Daily Show” on Comedy Central —archived recording (roy wood jr.) Happy to be here. I don’t think you can ignore anything that the American people are bringing to you. So I think that’s where it ain’t funny to a lot of people. And I think that’s what we’re — those are the only two things we’re armed with is either laughs or yelling. But now do you want the funny guy that’s going to be in control of your uterus?

Persons: astead herndon, Jon Stewart, Wanda Sykes, roy, Dark Brandon, Roy Wood Jr, astead herndon —, I’ll, I’m, Clarence Thomas, There’s, Trump, it’s, Donald Trump, —, Biden, ” I’m Astead, ”, Showtime ”, that’ll, astead herndon Really, It’ll, astead, Jim Messina, Joe Biden, Rupert Murdoch, That’s, Harry Styles, Don Lemon, Harris, Ron Klain, exoticize Joe Biden, Scranton Joe, we’re, you’re, Obama, herndon, we’ve, Bob Dole, that’s, George Floyd, They’re, what’s, Roy, Buddy, who’s, Trayvon Martin —, let’s, Ludacris, Kim Kardashian, Ray J, Kardashian, astead herndon Roy, he’s, Joe Biden’s, It’s, I’ve, He’s, George Lopez, they’re, astead herndon I’m, there’s, John Oliver — astead herndon, “, Sarah Palin, Tina Fey’s, Nikki Haley, ain’t, Haley, Nikki Haley can’t, donald, Ron “ DeSanctimonious, astead herndon It’s, who’ve, Obama Obama, Lock, Hillary’s, Marco, You’re, Little Marco, Karine Jean, Pierre, astead herndon That’s, Donald Trump’s, Stormy Daniels, Jonah Bromwich, haven’t, jonah bromwich You’ve, We’ve, Michael Cohen, David Pecker, don’t, Trump — jonah bromwich, He’ll, biden, astead herndon Joe Biden, Let’s, She’s Organizations: White, Super, Comedy, “, Disney, The New York Times, Showtime, astead herndon, Trump, Biden, Paramount, BET, Scranton, Republicans, Florida, M University, Black College, Republican, Democratic Party, Democratic, Democrat, RFK, Party, Tea Party, SNL, Democrats, Tower, National, ”, AMI, Trump — Locations: Washington , DC, France, America, ” I’m Astead Herndon, herndon, Scranton, Tallahassee, Birmingham , Alabama, Birmingham, astead herndon, South Carolina, CPAC, Palestine, Israel, Manhattan, Florida, Tampa, Pennsylvania

Right now, President Biden’s clearest path to re-election in November seems to run through the middle of the country. Nebraska is one of just two states that distributes electoral college votes proportionally rather than with a winner-take-all approach. That means that, even though it’s a largely conservative state, Nebraskans sometimes still give one of their five electoral votes to a Democrat, as they did for Mr. Biden in 2020. This year, Nebraska and the up-for-grabs nature of that one electoral vote has caught the attention of the right-wing commentator Charlie Kirk, former President Donald Trump and his supporters. In recent weeks, they’ve mobilized and are throwing Nebraska’s unique electoral system into flux.

Persons: Biden, it’s, Charlie Kirk, Donald Trump, they’ve Organizations: Mr Locations: Pennsylvania , Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, . Nebraska

The people who don’t vote are often left out of the political conversation. Campaigns don’t spend much money on them, and the media doesn’t devote much coverage to them. But to understand a presidential contest like the 2024 race — one that threatens to be extremely close — we have to understand not just the people who show up to vote, but also those who sit out elections.

Organizations: don’t

Credits“The Run-Up” is hosted by Astead W. Herndon and produced by Anna Foley , Elisa Gutierrez and Caitlin O’Keefe . The show is edited by Rachel Dry , Lisa Tobin and Frannie Carr Toth . Engineering by Sophia Lanman and original music by Dan Powell , Marion Lozano , Pat McCusker , Diane Wong and Elisheba Ittoop . Fact-checking by Caitlin Love. Special thanks to Paula Szuchman, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Halbfinger, Renan Borelli, Mahima Chablani, Jeffrey Miranda and Maddy Masiello.

Persons: Astead W, Herndon, Anna Foley, Elisa Gutierrez, Caitlin O’Keefe, Rachel Dry, Lisa Tobin, Frannie Carr Toth, Sophia Lanman, Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong, Elisheba, Caitlin Love, Paula Szuchman, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Halbfinger, Renan Borelli, Mahima Chablani, Jeffrey Miranda, Maddy Masiello

For the past few months, we’ve been asking our listeners to write in with questions, and we’ve gotten some great ones. Things like: How does polling work? Does Joe Biden’s stance on Gaza present a campaign challenge? And who might Donald Trump select as his running mate? But as we were sorting through them, an underlying theme started to emerge: People can’t seem to fathom that we’re careening toward a Biden-Trump rematch — and they want to know if anything could alter this seemingly inevitable reality.

Persons: we’ve, Joe Biden’s, Donald Trump Organizations: Biden, Trump Locations: Gaza

But — astead herndon You don’t really talk — you don’t really talk about that on the first date? I don’t know how to — I don’t know if that’s the best way to phrase it. I just — they’re not for me if they’re really, really intense about it. And it is really, really important to some people and less important to others. speaker 8 I’m — I’m — I’m more pro-choice, to be honest.

Persons: ashley I’m Ashley, radia I’m Radia, ashley, astead herndon, ashley Yes, radia, we’re, we’ve, hasn’t, Donald Trump, it’s Donald Trump, Joe Biden, ashley Um, BELL, herndon, Elisa Gutierrez, Ashley, Radia, King of Prussia, elisa gutierrez, elisa gutierrez Oh, elisa gutierrez We’re, Don’t, I’m Astead Herndon, Trump, there’s, you’re, — astead herndon, Biden, It’s, that’s, I’m, COVID, didn’t —, aren’t, I’m John, astead, wasn’t, karen, Karen, karen Um, don’t, they’re, — astead, —, Pew, jess grose, Jess Grose, ” astead herndon, anna martin I’m Anna Martin, Elisa, anna martin, Jess, you’ve, astead herndon We’re, Anna, Taylor Swift, anna martin That’s, anna martin You’re, I’ve, anna martin Totally, jess grose Homophily, astead herndon Homophily, astead herndon I’m, — jess grose That’s, it’s, you’ll, anna martin Absolutely, jess grose Yes, anna martin Oh, Wariness, astead herndon Anna, anna martin Good, jess grose Oh, Jessica Grose, Anna Martin, Tom Suozzi, Republican Mazi Pilip, astead herndon He’ll, George Santos, astead herndon Donald Trump, Lara Trump, Sean Hannity, lara, Donald J, Ronna McDaniel, biden, Jason Kelce, Travis Kelce, Mama Kelce Organizations: The New York Times, Biden, Trump, Pew, “ Times, Democratic, Republican Party, Republican, The Boston Globe, Nassau, Nassau County Republican, Republican National Committee, RNC, South, GOP Locations: King, Philadelphia, herndon, astead herndon, It’s, United States, —, Boston, New, Nassau County, Israel

Nevada is doing things differently this year. Or at least, it tried to. The first presidential nominating contest in the west takes place on Tuesday — and on Thursday. But that’s not what state officials were hoping would happen when they decided to move from a caucus to a primary in 2021.

Persons: that’s Locations: Nevada

And I think he’s right there with Reagan as far as his track record, what he did overall throughout his presidency. I think it really does set her up well as you do move on into some other states. nick corasanitiSo New Hampshire has a long history of really just going against Iowa, right? Those independents is where the question of the final results really, really come in. They were economic voters, taxation voters, pro-gun voters, not any of those kind of evangelical issues that we heard in Iowa.

Persons: I’m, We’ve, I’m Astead, ”, Iowans, Donald Trump, Trump, Nikki ”, Haley, it’s, Ames, Harrison Barnes, Doug McDermott, Troy Hill, Nikki Haley, Vivek, — he’s, wouldn’t, “, aren’t, Reagan, DeSantis, Nikki, Ramaswamy, Ron, he’s, Biden, Ron DeSantis, —, I’ve, who’s, It’s, hasn’t, caucusing, Roe, Astead Herndon, Aaron, it’s Trump, They’re, Mike Pence, you’ll, we’re, Anna, Teresa didn’t, Teresa, haven’t, Nikki Haley’s, Donald Trump’s, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nick Corasaniti, astead herndon, Nick, Trump’s, astead, There’s, they’re, Rand Paul, herndon, Bill Clinton, — astead herndon Isn’t, John McCain, George W, Bush, isn’t, They’ve, unquote, astead herndon It’s, He’s, Chris Christie, Christie, that’s, “ Trump, it’ll, she’s, I’d Organizations: Trump, The New York Times, Republican, CNN, Iowa, America, Iowa State University, NBA, Republicans, Republican Party, Associated Press, NBC, CBS, Iowa Republican, New, astead herndon, New Hampshire, Democrat, New Hampshire Republican, Prosperity Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, I’m Astead Herndon, , Iowa, Ames , Iowa, Des Moines, Trump, Troy, Ukraine, Congo, , New Hampshire, COVID, Indiana, Ames, “, Hampshire, astead herndon, Portsmouth

“The Run-Up” is in a particularly good position to try and answer those questions. We convened a focus group — a very special, one-time only focus group in the childhood home of Astead W. Herndon, who hosts “The Run-Up.”For the wide-ranging discussion, he gathered family members, parishioners from his father’s church, community members and people he grew up with, all of whom largely leaned Democratic, but were clear about the ways in which the party had let them down. The conversations were anchored in questions about Black voters and the Democratic Party, but also covered the apparent appeal of Mr. Trump to Black men specifically.

Persons: Herndon, Trump Organizations: Democratic, Democratic Party

Vice President Kamala Harris is crucial to the Biden campaign’s strategy for winning over a skeptical Democratic base. Her central role — combined with President Joe Biden’s advanced age — means that certain questions have taken on renewed importance. Specifically: What does Ms. Harris believe, and what kind of president would she be? The question of what Ms. Harris believes is one Astead returned to in August. That’s when he sat with the vice president for a wide-ranging interview in Chicago, conducted as part of the reporting for a New York Times Magazine cover story on Ms. Harris.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Biden, —, Joe Biden’s, Harris, Herndon, That’s Organizations: Democratic, New York Times Magazine Locations: Chicago

Over the course of a few days this week, we got two pretty remarkable data points for the 2024 election. In Virginia, Democrats took control of the state legislature, flipping the House of Delegates and preserving control of the Senate. Just a few days earlier, though, The New York Times and Siena College released a new poll of battleground states. Former President Donald J. Trump was leading President Biden in five out of the six states where voters were surveyed. What to make of bad news for the president followed by good news for his party just a few days later?

Persons: Andy Beshear, Donald J, Trump, Biden Organizations: Gov, New York Times, Siena College Locations: Kentucky, In Ohio, State, In Virginia

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