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☆ Europe is currently in a 'weak recovery,' Morgan Stanley economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEurope is currently in a 'weak recovery,' Morgan Stanley economist saysJens Eisenschmidt, chief Europe economist at Morgan Stanley, says Europe is currently in a "weak recovery" in terms of growth numbers, with some positive consumption dynamics.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jens Eisenschmidt Locations: Europe

☆ Bank of England to cut rates in May, Morgan Stanley says, retaining contrarian call
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Bank of England could still cut interest rates in May, Morgan Stanley has said, in an increasingly rare call of confidence as market sentiment supporting such a move wanes. "We still entertain a May rate cut," chief economist Jens Eisenschmidt told CNBC's "Street Signs" on Wednesday, reiterating the bank's commitment to an earlier call. The Wall Street bank's contrarian view is now some way off consensus, which currently prices in an initial BOE rate cut in September, according to LSEG data. "In general, the central banks are all, to some extent, in the same boat. Morgan Stanley on Monday revised its ECB rate cut forecast, following an earlier revision in its Fed outlook.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jens Eisenschmidt, CNBC's, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Morgan Stanley's, Eisenschmidt, there's Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom, Europe, U.S

☆ Morgan Stanley economist confident euro zone inflation will come down resolutely in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley economist confident euro zone inflation will come down resolutely in 2024Jens Eisenschmidt, chief Europe economist at Morgan Stanley, discusses the latest euro zone Purchasing Managers' Index figures and inflation outlook.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jens Eisenschmidt Locations: Europe

Yet increasingly, euro area specific factors, particularly exposure to higher oil prices, risk further weakness in an already stagnating economy, and the single currency. The euro is especially vulnerable to rising oil prices, with net imports accounting for over 90% of oil products available in the European Union. "High oil prices are weighing on the euro area's terms of trade, and if oil prices move above $100 per barrel to $110 per barrel we think it will be difficult for the euro to avoid parity," said Nomura's G10 FX strategist Jordan Rochester. But it also lifts price pressures through higher import costs, compounding the impact from higher oil prices. "Definitely the euro zone is not in a good place right now," said Moec, adding that he did not rule out a euro move to parity.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jordan, Nomura, Morgan Stanley, Jens Eisenschmidt, Francesco Pesole, Athanasios, Gilles Moec, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alun John, Yoruk, Christina Fincher Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, European Union, OPEC, Barclays, European Central Bank, ECB, ING, Germany, Bank of America, AXA Investment, Thomson Locations: Jordan Rochester, United States, ITALY, Italy, U.S, London, Amsterdam

☆ 'Once-in-a-lifetime' opportunity: Morgan Stanley's stocks to trade Europe's renewable energy boom
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Lucy Handley | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Morgan Stanley named several stocks to play Europe's investment in renewable energy — and highlighted a "once-in-a lifetime" opportunity in the electricity sector in particular. Earlier this year, the European Union raised its renewable energy targets in the face of the energy crisis that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The bank estimated the transition to green power sources will cost around 5 trillion euros ($5.5 trillion) between now and 2030. Growth opportunity "The EU and UK renewables targets imply significant growth investment opportunities for renewable developers," the bank said. Though Morgan Stanley is positive on the opportunities for renewable energy companies, it said the EU's targets would be "hard to achieve."

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Morgan, Jens Eisenschmidt, Orsted, Centrica, Michael Bloom, Sam Meredith Organizations: European Union, Grid, EU, Siemens Energy, British Gas Locations: Ukraine

☆ Morgan Stanley: ECB rate hikes could end in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley: ECB rate hikes could end in JulyJens Eisenschmidt, chief Europe economist at Morgan Stanley, talks about the latest euro area inflation figures and the prospects for house prices and financial stability over the upcoming months.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jens Eisenschmidt Locations: Europe

While the error margins are unlikely to distort euro inflation in the long-term, economists say they could warp inflation expectations if not addressed, at a time when the European Central Bank is raising rates aggressively to tame double-digit inflation. As falling energy prices will take time to be reflected in household contracts, the current methodology will underestimate inflation when energy prices fall, CBS said. More volatility could follow when Germany introduces a cap on energy prices in March, that will also cut costs for January and February retroactively, he said. Eurostat has said that only measures that have a direct impact on energy prices, known to consumers before they purchase the energy, should reflect in inflation calculations. FEEDTHROUGH RISKSWith inflation at 10%, the calculation issues are unlikely to significantly impact the aggregate euro zone inflation print.

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