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☆ We asked Americans what they’d heard about Trump and Harris throughout the campaign. Here’s what they told us
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-10 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Georgetown University, University of Michigan and s3mc.orgGeorgetown University, University of Michigan and s3mc.orgWhat also stands out in the charts over time is the lack of a sustained narrative about either candidate. On average, over the 20 weeks The Breakthrough survey was fielded this year, roughly 76% of US adults said weekly they’d heard at least some news about Trump. In the 15 full weeks of data following Harris’ entry into the race, a slightly smaller share – about 71% on average – said they’d heard something about her. Sentiments expressed by political independents when talking about the news surrounding Trump were negative throughout the campaign. Their sentiment when discussing what they’d heard about Harris, which was close to neutral at the start of her candidacy, declined modestly throughout the fall, undercutting her advantage over Trump on that metric.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump’s, Joe Biden, Harris, ”, Harris –, SSRS, Trump, Gallup’s Frank Newport, “, …, Hillary Clinton, they’d, Biden, –, undercutting, Jennifer Agiesta, Edward Wu Organizations: CNN, Trump’s, Trump, Georgetown University, University of Michigan Locations: Puerto Rico

☆ What Americans heard about Trump heading into the campaign’s final week: fascism and french fries
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-03 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Conversations around Vice President Kamala Harris, by contrast, continued to focus largely around broader and more conventional stories about her campaign. The poll, conducted by SSRS and Verasight on behalf of a research team from CNN, Georgetown University and the University of Michigan, was fielded from October 25-28. Georgetown University, University of Michigan and s3mc.org“Numerous former officers in the 2016-2020 Trump administration are sounding alarms that Trump will dismantle democracy if he’s elected,” wrote one Democratic-leaning independent. Georgetown University, University of Michigan and s3mc.orgWhen the survey asked respondents what they’d been hearing about Harris, the words “campaign,” “rally,” “interview,” “polls” and “ad” all cracked the top 10. Overall, the sentiment behind the words Americans used in describing what they’d heard about both Trump and Harris remained more negative than positive, with the sentiment around Harris continuing to dip from the earliest days of her campaign.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, SSRS, Trump’s, Trump, –, “, Arnold, ”, Joe Rogan, “ Trump, ‘, Hitler, ’, they’d, Harris, Jennifer Agiesta, Edward Wu Organizations: CNN, Georgetown University, University of Michigan, Madison, Fame, ”, Trump, Beyoncé Locations: Puerto Rico, Houston

Likely voters in Georgia divide 48% for Trump to 47% for Harris, and in North Carolina, Harris stands at 48% to Trump’s 47%. North Carolina, which narrowly supported Barack Obama in 2008, has voted Republican in the past three presidential elections. While the polls find similar political environments in Georgia and North Carolina overall, there are some significant differences. In both states, Harris leads among Black likely voters (84% to 13% in Georgia, 78% to 19% in North Carolina) and voters with college degrees (55% to 39% in Georgia, 53% to 42% in North Carolina). Interviews were conducted October 23-28, 2024, online and by telephone with registered voters, including 732 voters in Georgia and 750 in North Carolina.

Persons: CNN —, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, SSRS, Harris, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, they’ve, –, Harris ’, White, ”, Josh Stein, Republican Mark Robinson, Robinson, Stein, Biden, Hurricane Helene, Helene, Black, Trump Organizations: CNN, White House, Trump, Republican, Democrat, Wisconsin –, White, North, Trump voters, North Carolina, Voters, – Locations: Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North, In Georgia

In Michigan, Harris holds a lead over Trump by 48% to 43% among likely voters. Among those likely voters who say they’re extremely motivated to vote in Michigan, 51% support Harris to 45% for Trump. In Wisconsin, they break 52% Harris to 47% Trump, and in Pennsylvania, they divide 50% for Harris to 47% for Trump. Harris holds a wider lead among Black voters in Michigan (83% Harris to 12% Trump) than she does in Pennsylvania (76% Harris to 21% Trump). Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Joe Biden, Robert F, Kennedy, Jr, Trump, –, that’s, Elissa Slotkin, Mike Rogers, Pennsylvania’s Democratic Sen, Bob Casey, Dave McCormick’s, Democratic Sen, Tammy Baldwin, Republican Eric Hovde’s, Harris ’, Biden Organizations: CNN, Electoral College, SSRS, Trump, White House, Trump ., White, Harris, Black, Keystone State, Suburban, Michigan Democratic, Republican, Pennsylvania’s Democratic, Senate, Democratic Locations: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Trump . In Michigan, Trump . In Wisconsin, Trump, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Southern, Western

In Nevada, 48% of likely voters support Trump and 47% back Harris. Hispanic likely voters in Nevada split about evenly between Harris and Trump (48% support Harris, 47% Trump). In Arizona, likely voters are split over which candidate cares more about people like them (45% say Harris does, 41% Trump). The gap is even wider in Nevada, where 71% of Democratic-leaning likely voters are very confident compared with 16% of Republican-aligned likely voters. Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, SSRS, Harris, Harris ’, Trump, White, Ruben Gallego, Kari Lake, Sen, Kyrsten Sinema, Democratic Sen, Jacky Rosen, Sam Brown, who’ve, Ethan Miller, Republican leaners Organizations: CNN, White, Trump ., Trump, Trump . Independent, Democratic, US Senate, Democratic Rep, Republican, Democrats Locations: Arizona, Nevada, Trump . In Nevada, Las Vegas, In Arizona, In Nevada

Early voting trends cannot predict the outcome of an election, but they can provide clues about who is voting – at least so far. Early voting in Georgia and North CarolinaWhile preelection turnout is generally down, Georgia is an outlier. Compared with the same point in 2020, early voting turnout is roughly the same – down just 1%, according to Catalist’s data. The state also now doesn’t accept mail ballots that arrive after Election Day, even if they are postmarked before the polls close. There’s also a clear partisan difference in how people are voting early in North Carolina.

Persons: Catalist, Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, it’s, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, There’s, White, –, CNN’s Edward Wu Organizations: CNN, District of Columbia, Edison Research, Republican, Republican Party, Republicans, Michigan voters Locations: Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan , Wisconsin, Michigan, Wisconsin, Badger

☆ CNN Poll: Most voters don’t think Trump will concede if he loses the 2024 election
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Jennifer Agiesta | Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Overall, just 30% of registered voters think Trump will accept the results of the election and concede if he loses, while 73% say that Vice President Kamala Harris would accept an election loss. But that rises to 20% among registered voters who support Trump, compared with only 3% who feel that way among Harris supporters. The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS online and by telephone October 20-23, 2024, among 1,704 registered voters nationwide drawn from a probability-based panel. Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results for the full sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points; it is 3.1 for likely voters, and larger for subgroups.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Trump’s, There’s, Edward Wu Organizations: CNN, SSRS, Trump

☆ Harris media blitz and Trump campaign rallies capture Americans’ attention
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The survey also finds dishonesty remaining a central theme of the election, with “lies” the most common word used in conjunction with Trump’s campaign. While both Harris and Trump have been holding rallies and speaking with podcasters, Harris has ramped up her media appearances. Mentions of the campaign made up 36% of the responses about Harris, and 28% of the responses about Trump, a 10-point rise for each candidate compared with the start of the month. “She is doing the media blitz everyone wanted.”Georgetown University, University of Michigan and s3mc.orgBy contrast, when Americans were asked to describe the news about Trump, “rally” was the second-most commonly word used in response. “He’s been posting all of his political rallies there.”Georgetown University, University of Michigan and s3mc.orgDemocrats, in particular, were also likely to mention Detroit.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, SSRS, ”, Howard Stern, Stephen Colbert, “ He’s, Hurricane Milton, “, Jennifer Agiesta, Edward Wu Organizations: CNN, Georgetown University, University of Michigan, Trump, CBS, s3mc.org Democrats, Detroit, Detroit Economic, Hurricane, Democratic National Convention, ABC Locations: California, New York, Aurora , Colorado, Coachella , California, Detroit, Florida

☆ CNN Poll: Harris and Trump are tied in North Carolina, while vice president leads in Nebraska’s 2nd District
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

CNN —Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied among likely voters in North Carolina, while Harris holds a comfortable lead in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, according to two new CNN polls conducted by SSRS. In North Carolina, Harris and Trump stand at 48% each among likely voters. In Nebraska’s 2nd District, the so-called blue dot encompassing Omaha, Harris has 53% to Trump’s 42%, the poll finds. An 86% majority of Democratic likely voters and 69% of independent likely voters favor keeping the current system, while 69% of GOP likely voters say they’d rather move to a winner-take-all system in the state. But just 41% in North Carolina say they’re very confident, rising to a 59% majority in Nebraska’s 2nd District.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, SSRS, Mark Robinson, Trump, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, they’ve, White, Biden, Brian Snyder, Josh Stein, Robinson, Stein, Tony Vargas, Don Bacon, Vargas, Bacon, Jim Watson, CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta, Edward Wu Organizations: CNN, Congressional, Gov, Democratic, Trump, North, Nebraska’s, Sun, College, Cornhusker State, Republican, Obama, Biden, Reuters Male, GOP, Republican Rep, Republicans, Getty Locations: North Carolina, Nebraska’s, The, Carolina, Omaha, Nebraska, Maine, Wilmington , North Carolina, Congress, Trump, North Carolina’s, North, Charlotte , North Carolina, AFP, The Nebraska

☆ Black voters: Harris still lags behind Biden’s 2020 margins but new CNN poll suggests she has room to grow support
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Edward Wu | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In the latest poll, 79% of Black registered voters say they would definitely vote, up from 68% in the June poll. The poll suggests Trump’s improvements among Black voters relative to 2020 are driven largely by Black voters under the age of 60. Harris is also generally viewed more favorably among Black registered voters compared with registered voters overall, even after accounting for Black voters’ overwhelming Democratic lean. Democratic Black likely voters, however, are twice as likely as Democratic likely voters overall to consider the economy their top issue (42%, compared with 19%). Results among Black registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 7.8 percentage points; among Black likely voters, it is plus or minus 7.7 percentage points.

Persons: CNN — Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, SSRS, Joe Biden’s, Black, Trump, CNN’s, Harris, That’s, – Harris, Biden, Joe Biden, Andrew Harnik, don’t, CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards, Levy Organizations: CNN, Trump, CNN’s, Biden, Black, Girard College, Democrats, Democratic Party, Black Democratic, Democratic Black, Democratic, White Americans, Black Americans Locations: Black, Philadelphia , Pennsylvania, United States

☆ CNN Poll: Harris leads Trump among young voters but falls short of Biden’s 2020 winning margin
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Harris leads Trump 52% to 40% among these likely voters younger than 35. Where female likely voters younger than 35 prefer Harris over Trump, 53% to 39%, male likely voters are closely divided. And among registered voters, young women are 15 points likelier than men to express a positive view of Harris. The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS online and by telephone September 19-22, 2024, among 2,074 registered voters nationwide drawn from a probability-based panel. Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Joe Biden, Biden, There’s, Young Trump, Obama, Trump, Trump’s, they’ve, Young, aren’t, Young Harris, CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta, Edward Wu Organizations: CNN, SSRS, Trump, Democratic, Quinnipiac University, Harvard Institute of Politics, Young, GOP, Young Republican, Republican, Democratic Party, Republicans, White, Trump voters

The latest poll finds Harris and Trump roughly even with independent likely voters – Harris at 45% to Trump at 41% - with a gender gap that is centered among independents. Harris is well ahead among likely voters younger than 30 (55% support her to 38% who favor Trump), and among Black (79% Harris to 16% Trump) and Latino (59% Harris to 40% Trump) likely voters. Likely voters overall say they trust Trump over Harris to handle the economy (50% Trump to 39% Harris), immigration (49% Trump to 35% Harris) and foreign policy (47% Trump to 40% Harris). Likely voters generally favor Harris’ approach on abortion and reproductive rights (52% Harris to 31% Trump), uniting the country (43% Harris to 30% Trump), and protecting democracy (47% Harris to 40% Trump). Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, SSRS, Libertarian Chase Oliver, Jill Stein, Trump, Harris ’, That’s, Joe Biden, – Harris, outpacing Trump, Trump’s, Tim Walz, Ohio Sen, JD Vance, Hillary Clinton, Clinton Organizations: CNN, Trump, Libertarian, Green Party, Democratic, Independent, White, Minnesota Gov, Voters, Republican

☆ The methodology behind The Breakthrough polling project
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Jennifer Agiesta | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —The Breakthrough is a project from CNN, Georgetown University, the University of Michigan, SSRS and Verasight. Each week, 1,000 Americans are asked to share what they have seen, read or heard about major presidential candidates in their own words. Results from the two surveys are combined using SSRS’s Encipher Hybrid methodology for blending probability and non-probability samples. Respondents have also been asked the same question about Biden since the start of the project. To develop topics, topic words are manually identified and augmented with words and topics identified using a combination of Noiseless Latent Dirichlet Allocation (NLDA) and Guided Topic-Noise Model (GTM).

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Robert F, Kennedy, Jr, Harris, Biden, Lisa Singh, Josh Pasek, Michael Traugott, Budak, RoBERTa pretrained, Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards, Levy, Edward Wu, Dana Elobaid, Le Bao, Yanchen Wang, Mohamed Ahmed, Akilah Evans, Hope Wilson, Cameron McPhee, Peter K, Enns, Gretchen Streett, Amelia Goranson, Jake Rothschild Organizations: CNN, Georgetown University, University of Michigan, Massive Data, Technical, Science Locations: Verasight

☆ CNN Poll: Harris improves on Biden’s performance against Trump in early look at new matchup
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | Jennifer Agiesta | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

That’s a closer contest than earlier CNN polling this year had found on the matchup between Biden and Trump. Half of those who back Harris in the new poll (50%) say their vote is more in support of her than against Trump. Among voters under 35, 49% said in April or June that they would support Trump and 42% Biden, but now, 47% support Harris to 43% for Trump. Among Hispanic voters, Biden trailed Trump in earlier polling 50% to 41%; those same voters now split about evenly, 47% Harris to 45% for Trump. That narrowed gap is driven at least partly by increased Harris support among independents who lean toward the Democratic Party.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Harris, Biden, Trump’s, That’s, it’s, they’d, SSRS, CNN’s Edward Wu, Dana Elobaid Organizations: CNN, SSRS, Harris ’, Biden, Democratic, Trump, CNN’s, Republican National Convention, Republicans, Republican, Trump ., Independent, Democratic Party, Democrats Locations: Democratic, Trump

☆ CNN Poll: Most voters think Democrats have a better chance of keeping White House if Biden isn’t the nominee
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-02 | by ( Jennifer Agiesta | Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Biden’s support among Democratic voters has inched up to 91% from 85% in April, while 93% of Republicans back Trump (about even since April). However, most Democrats and Democratic-leaning registered voters (56%) say the party has a better shot at the presidency with someone other than Biden, while 43% say the party stands a better chance with him. Biden’s strengths are on abortion and reproductive rights (44% trust Biden, 32% Trump) and health care (44% Biden to 34% Trump). The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from June 28-30 among a random national sample of 1,274 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 1,045 registered voters. For results among registered voters, it is plus or minus 3.7 points.

Persons: Joe Biden, SSRS, Donald Trump, Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Gavin Newsom, Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, Gretchen Whitmer, Whitmer, Biden, Haiyun Jiang, –, haven’t, CNN’s Edward Wu, Dana Elobaid Organizations: CNN, Democratic Party, Biden, Trump, Harris, California Gov, Transportation, Michigan Gov, Democratic, New York Times, Republican, GOP, Trump –, Buttigieg, SSRS, Surveys Locations: New York, East Hampton , New York, York

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