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☆ The methodology behind The Breakthrough polling project
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Jennifer Agiesta | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —The Breakthrough is a project from CNN, Georgetown University, the University of Michigan, SSRS and Verasight. Each week, 1,000 Americans are asked to share what they have seen, read or heard about major presidential candidates in their own words. Results from the two surveys are combined using SSRS’s Encipher Hybrid methodology for blending probability and non-probability samples. Respondents have also been asked the same question about Biden since the start of the project. To develop topics, topic words are manually identified and augmented with words and topics identified using a combination of Noiseless Latent Dirichlet Allocation (NLDA) and Guided Topic-Noise Model (GTM).

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Robert F, Kennedy, Jr, Harris, Biden, Lisa Singh, Josh Pasek, Michael Traugott, Budak, RoBERTa pretrained, Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards, Levy, Edward Wu, Dana Elobaid, Le Bao, Yanchen Wang, Mohamed Ahmed, Akilah Evans, Hope Wilson, Cameron McPhee, Peter K, Enns, Gretchen Streett, Amelia Goranson, Jake Rothschild Organizations: CNN, Georgetown University, University of Michigan, Massive Data, Technical, Science Locations: Verasight

☆ CNN Poll: Harris improves on Biden’s performance against Trump in early look at new matchup
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | Jennifer Agiesta | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

That’s a closer contest than earlier CNN polling this year had found on the matchup between Biden and Trump. Half of those who back Harris in the new poll (50%) say their vote is more in support of her than against Trump. Among voters under 35, 49% said in April or June that they would support Trump and 42% Biden, but now, 47% support Harris to 43% for Trump. Among Hispanic voters, Biden trailed Trump in earlier polling 50% to 41%; those same voters now split about evenly, 47% Harris to 45% for Trump. That narrowed gap is driven at least partly by increased Harris support among independents who lean toward the Democratic Party.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Harris, Biden, Trump’s, That’s, it’s, they’d, SSRS, CNN’s Edward Wu, Dana Elobaid Organizations: CNN, SSRS, Harris ’, Biden, Democratic, Trump, CNN’s, Republican National Convention, Republicans, Republican, Trump ., Independent, Democratic Party, Democrats Locations: Democratic, Trump

☆ CNN Poll: Most voters think Democrats have a better chance of keeping White House if Biden isn’t the nominee
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-02 | by ( Jennifer Agiesta | Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Biden’s support among Democratic voters has inched up to 91% from 85% in April, while 93% of Republicans back Trump (about even since April). However, most Democrats and Democratic-leaning registered voters (56%) say the party has a better shot at the presidency with someone other than Biden, while 43% say the party stands a better chance with him. Biden’s strengths are on abortion and reproductive rights (44% trust Biden, 32% Trump) and health care (44% Biden to 34% Trump). The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from June 28-30 among a random national sample of 1,274 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 1,045 registered voters. For results among registered voters, it is plus or minus 3.7 points.

Persons: Joe Biden, SSRS, Donald Trump, Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Gavin Newsom, Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, Gretchen Whitmer, Whitmer, Biden, Haiyun Jiang, –, haven’t, CNN’s Edward Wu, Dana Elobaid Organizations: CNN, Democratic Party, Biden, Trump, Harris, California Gov, Transportation, Michigan Gov, Democratic, New York Times, Republican, GOP, Trump –, Buttigieg, SSRS, Surveys Locations: New York, East Hampton , New York, York

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