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☆ Analysis-For traders, September's ECB move is far from clear cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File PhotoData on Thursday showed euro zone inflation held at 5.3% in August rather than dropping. Another inflation hawk, Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann, said the ECB could deliver “another hike or two”. Overall money supply in the bloc contracted in July for the first time since 2010, demonstrating the extent to which ECB policy has tightened financial conditions. And even if investors are divided on September’s decision, the consensus is that the ECB will be done raising rates soon. Longer-term, markets expect the ECB to start cutting rates by the second quarter of 2024.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Piet Christiansen, ’ indecisiveness, ” Christiansen, Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, ”, Mauro Valle, Valle, Edward Hutchings, Frederik Ducrozet, Aviva’s Hutchinson, ” Pictet’s Ducrozet Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Danske Bank, Generali Investments, Treasury, Aviva Investors, Pictet Wealth Management Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Austrian

☆ For traders, September's ECB move is far from clear cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File PhotoData on Thursday showed euro zone inflation held at 5.3% in August rather than dropping. Overall money supply in the bloc contracted in July for the first time since 2010, demonstrating the extent to which ECB policy has tightened financial conditions. And even if investors are divided on September’s decision, the consensus is that the ECB will be done raising rates soon. Longer-term, markets expect the ECB to start cutting rates by the second quarter of 2024. (This story has been corrected to clarify that Aviva favours a small overweight in European bonds, not longer-dated euro zone bonds, in paragraph 19)

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Piet Christiansen, ’ indecisiveness, ” Christiansen, Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, ”, Mauro Valle, Valle, Edward Hutchings, Frederik Ducrozet, ” Aviva’s Hutchings, ” Pictet’s Ducrozet Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Danske Bank, Generali Investments, Treasury, Aviva Investors, Pictet Wealth Management, Aviva Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Austrian

LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of England looks like it's being outed as the weakest link. The primary reason was that two of the nine-person MPC voted to end the Bank's rate rise campaign right away as the recession the Bank thinks is already underway will get entrenched next year. But with the median economist forecast for the Bank's terminal rate somewhere around 4.25%, markets still seem aggressively positioned for a hawkish surprise and the pound may be more vulnerable to that revision as the winter progresses. Significantly, the implied Fed terminal rate edged higher to 4.9% after its policy setpiece on Wednesday - even if is still below the 5.1% the Fed indicated. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ VIEW Bank of England raises rates to 3.5%, says inflation has peaked
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by a widely expected 50 basis points (bps) to 3.50%, in its ninth straight increase - and its eighth this year. UK rates began rising in December 2021, making the BoE the first of the world's major central banks to kick off a monetary policy-tightening cycle. MONEY MARKETS: Interest rate swaps showed investors expected rates to peak at 4.46% by next August, compared with an anticipated terminal rate of 4.53% just before the decision. Their own numbers have been pointing to a recession for a little while, and they've still materially hiked interest rates. EDWARD HUTCHINGS, HEAD OF RATES, AVIVA INVESTORS, LONDON:"The Bank of England duly delivered on financial markets expectations of a 0.50% hike.

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