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☆ The stock market is loving Trump’s return. The bond market has some concerns though
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN —Donald Trump is returning to the White House, and the stock market is loving it. ‘The regime change’For now, stock market investors don’t seem bothered by the jump in bond yields or these inflationary or debt concerns. “The stock market jumped for joy that the election results were definitive, thus averting a contested election. Of course, market veterans say they wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock market eventually display concern about tariffs and inflation under Trump. That could pose a number of problems for the economy and the stock market.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, shockwaves, ”, David Kotok, Stephanie Roth, Roth, ” Roth, Sau Loeb, Kamala Harris, Harris, Jeff Buchbinder, “, Kotok, it’s, ” Kotok, They’re, Freddie Mac, ‘, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, It’s, ’, BTIG’s Isaac Boltansky Organizations: CNN, White, Dow Jones, stoke, Trump, Advisors, Wolfe Research, Treasury, US Treasury Department, Getty, Wall Street, LPL, Fed, Stock Locations: Big, Washington , DC, Washington

☆ As the election winds down, worries of 'bond vigilantes' and inflation hit markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Specifically, he warned about traders taking the 10-year Treasury yield , a bond market benchmark, above 5% — a level it hasn't seen since mid-2007. To be sure, there are myriad reasons why the bond market has been in a state of tumult since mid-September, political considerations of a second Trump term being just one of them. "The bond market could easily nullify the impacts of another rate cut. That's because the bond market believes the Fed is cutting rates by too much, too soon, and is therefore raising long-term inflation expectations. It could carry "higher tariffs and mass deportations, which triggers stagflation in the US including a second inflation spike," the bank said.

Persons: Donald Trump, Chip Somodevilla, Kamala Harris, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Trump, Harris, Kumar, it's, Karen Dynan, Trump's, Peterson, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Fiserv, Republican National Convention, Treasury, Trump, Reserve, Bond, Yardeni Research, Sri, Kumar, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Republicans Locations: Milwaukee , Wisconsin, United States

☆ Retiree spending helped thwart a US recession. But boomers are losing a key financial advantage.
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Retirees have been spending big thanks to recent gains in Social Security income, Bank of America said. But annual payment increases are falling behind workers' wage growth, the note said. Some economists have said baby boomer spending helped ward off a recession in recent years. Bank of America said retired consumers enjoyed greater spending power in the past two years as Social Security income got a boost. AdvertisementThe trouble with weaker spending among baby boomers is that the generation's willingness to splurge has been credited with helping the US avoid a recession in recent years.

Persons: boomer, —, X, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Social, Bank of America, Service, Social Security, Bank of America Institute

☆ The U.S. continues to surprise to the upside, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. continues to surprise to the upside, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, why he believes the market may be in the early stages of a melt-up, state of the economy, impact of the 2024 election, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with Yardeni Research’s Ed Yardeni, NewEdge’s Cameron Dawson and Virtus’ Joe Terranova
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Yardeni Research’s Ed Yardeni, NewEdge’s Cameron Dawson and Virtus’ Joe TerranovaYardeni Research’s Ed Yardeni, NewEdge’s Cameron Dawson and Virtus’ Joe Terranova, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss markets, what a slower Fed could mean for stocks and the economy.

Persons: Yardeni, Ed Yardeni, NewEdge’s Cameron Dawson, Virtus ’ Joe Terranova Yardeni Research’s Ed Yardeni, Virtus ’ Joe Terranova Organizations: Virtus ’

☆ Ed Yardeni on future 2024 rate cuts: 'None and done'
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEd Yardeni on future 2024 rate cuts: 'None and done'Yardeni Research’s Ed Yardeni, NewEdge’s Cameron Dawson and Virtus’ Joe Terranova, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss markets, what a slower Fed could mean for stocks and the economy.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, NewEdge’s Cameron Dawson, Virtus ’ Joe Terranova Organizations: Virtus ’

☆ The economy is facing a 'no-landing' scenario that undercuts the financial relief many Americans hoped for
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

However, the economy and the job market may be too strong to warrant steep rate cuts in the near term. "September's strong employment report and upward revisions in July and August murdered the hard-landing scenario," Yardeni said in a note to clients this week. The 30-year mortgage rate has crept higher, not lower, since the Fed delivered its big rate cut. As the economy reaccelerates, inflation could become a problem again, solidifying a higher for longer interest rate outlook that many had abandoned after the Fed's jumbo rate cut last month. Advertisement"With benchmark interest rates coming down, most prospective borrowers don't feel relieved of high borrowing costs," according to Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate.

Persons: —, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Megan Horneman, Steven Blitz, Mark Hamrick Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Yardeni, Fed, Verdence Capital Advisors, TS Lombard, Philadelphia Fed

☆ The Fed is done cutting rates this year as the 'phantom recession' is finally dead, market vet says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed is done cutting interest rates for the rest of the year, according to Ed Yardeni. Fears of a recession have been almost completely eliminated, the market vet said in a note. The no-show Fed-triggered recession will remain a no-show, especially now that the Fed has started to lower the FFR even though it isn't warranted by the performance of the economy," Yardeni wrote. I think it broadens out from the Magnificent Seven to the S&P 493," Yardeni added, speaking to Bloomberg on Monday. "We're going to have another quarter where I think earnings will go to a record-high in the third quarter."

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, —, landers, they're Organizations: Service, Reserve, Yardeni, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Services, Institution of Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Bloomberg, Investor

☆ There's a simple reason one of Wall Street's most bullish strategists expects a 40% rise in the S&P 500 by 2030
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Ed Yardeni predicts the S&P 500 could reach 8,000 by 2030. AdvertisementThere's a simple reason one of the most bullish Wall Street strategists expects the stock market to continue rising in the years ahead: compound interest. At a compounded annual growth rate of between 6% and 7%, the S&P 500 is on track to hit 8,000 by 2030, representing potential upside of about 40% from current levels. "The S&P 500 stock price index is driven by its earnings per share (EPS), which has been growing mostly between 6% and 7% since the 1950s," Yardeni said. He added: "EPS could double to $400 by the end of the decade in our Roaring 2020s scenario," Yardeni said.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, —, it's, Yardeni Organizations: Service, Yardeni, Federal Reserve

☆ There's a skills mismatch in the labor market, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's a skills mismatch in the labor market, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, what to expect from the jobs report this week, impact on the Fed's interest rate decision, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ The stock market rally risks sparking an unsustainable 'melt-up' as the economy overheats, market vet Ed Yardeni says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market runs a bigger risk of an unsustainable melt-up, according to Ed Yardeni. AdvertisementStocks run the risk of seeing an unsustainable, dot-com style melt-up, thanks to the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. That move sparked a rally in stocks to fresh records —but it's also raised the odds of a stock market melt-up, he said, meaning investors are now facing the risk of an unsustainable market boom. And while inflation has cooled from its highs several years ago, it is still a risk, Yardeni noted. Advertisement"If they get to overheat the economy and get to create a bubble in the stock market, yeah they're creating some issues," Yardeni added.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, —, Stocks, it's, Yardeni, Michelle Bowman, haven't Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Yardeni, Labor Department, Atlanta Fed

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise as investors assess producer inflation and jobless claims data
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Indexes rose Thursday as investors digested new inflation and labor market data. Jobless claims last week rose slightly following two weeks of consecutive declines. The producer price index logged a 0.2% monthly rise, in-line with expectations. In the second inflation reading of the week, the producer price index rose 0.2% from July to August, in line with expectations. This corner of the stock market is set to outperform once the Fed starts cutting interest rates, Goldman Sachs says.

Persons: —, Harris, Ed Yardeni, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Here's, Trump

☆ 'Ultra dovish' cuts may be off the table after CPI report, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Ultra dovish' cuts may be off the table after CPI report, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if core CPI report should be threatening to rate cuts, what he thinks about the proposed overhaul of Basel Endgame, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research Locations: Basel

☆ How plunging oil prices could help the US avoid recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Brent crude has fallen below a key threshold of $70 per barrel, and analysts expect it to fall further. Falling oil prices lessen the odds of a US recession, market veteran Ed Yardeni said. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! That puts the commodity at its lowest level in three years, breaking past a key threshold of $70 per barrel. Although falling prices might spell trouble for oil producers who hinge on the product, it could ease the chances of a US recession, one economist wrote.

Persons: Brent, Ed Yardeni, — Organizations: Service, Business

☆ A necessary step or government overreach? Economists are divided over Kamala Harris' plan to clamp down on food inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewVice President Kamala Harris' proposal to combat grocery inflation hasn't elicited a range of opinions from economists, and many have turned to history to dispute her idea. Last week, the Democratic presidential nominee unveiled early details of her economic platform, which included a pledge to ban grocery price gouging. In a study from May, price gouging was the second leading perceived cause of inflation among surveyed consumers. AdvertisementWhether gouging deserves the blame for inflation, some have also criticized Harris' plan as an ineffective government overreach. Pundits have alluded to the price controls under President Richard Nixon.

Persons: —, Kamala Harris, Kenneth Rogoff, Harris, Ed Yardeni, Price, Richard Nixon, Stephen Moore, Lindsay Owens, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Democratic, Business, CNN, Republican, Cato Institute, Heritage Foundation, CNBC, Federal Trade Commission, New York Times Locations: Cal, Maine

☆ 3 reasons why recession alarms are flashing a false positive, market vet says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Fresh anxiety might also spring from the fact that the yield curve is finally disinverting, which is a recessionary signal on its own. "In other words, the Credit Crisis Cycle may be on pause this time." AdvertisementStable credit conditions also contradict a typical reason for why the yield curve inverted in the first place. They are usually correct, Yardeni noted, but not this time around. AdvertisementBut when this happens, shorter-term Treasurys typically roll off quicker than longer ones, Yardeni noted.

Persons: —, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Federal, Valley Bank, ICE

☆ Stock market today: US indexes try to claw back deep losses after 3-day meltdown
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

With little data on the horizon, investors will look to Thursday's jobless claims for more clue about the economy. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS stocks rallied on Tuesday as shaken investors looked to claw back some of the losses incurred in a historic three-day rout. Jobless claims on Thursday will be the next clue about the health of the labor market. If weekly claims come in well past the 245,000 estimated by economists, it could spark another decline for stocks.

Persons: —, they're, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Dow, Service, Nasdaq, Bank of America

☆ The economy is fine despite the recent jobs data, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy is fine despite the recent jobs data, says Ed YardeniEdward Yardeni, Yardeni Research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss markets, the Fed and the economy.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Edward Yardeni Organizations: Fed

☆ Dow crashes 1,000 points and the Nasdaq loses 3% as recession fears fuel market panic
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks plunged Monday amid recession fears and the yen carry trade unwind. AdvertisementUS stocks plunged on Monday as investors worried about a potential recession and the knock-on effects from the unwind of the yen carry trade. All of those factors have drummed up fears that a recession could be imminent, especially given that the Federal Reserve could be "behind the curve" in its failure to cut interest rates last month. AdvertisementHere's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:Some believe the Fed should implement an emergency interest rate cut, including Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. AdvertisementBut perhaps the biggest driver of Monday's stock market decline was the unwind of the yen carry trade.

Persons: Dow Jones, —, payrolls, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, LPL, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Nasdaq, Bank of, Service, Dow Jones, Apple, Amazon, Intel, Federal, Here's, Bank of Japan, Yahoo Finance Locations: Japan

☆ The global 'carry trade' is unwinding. Here's why it's a brutal force crushing stocks worldwide.
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The unwind of the global yen "carry trade" is a force battering stocks. AdvertisementStocks plunged on Monday, and market pros say a lot of it has to do with the global unwind of the yen "carry trade." The carry trade refers to investors borrowing money at near-zero interest rates in Japan, and then redeploying that cash into higher-yielding assets around the world, such as stocks and bonds. "The selloff here is to a large extent attributable to the unwind of the so-called carry trade," Ed Yardeni told Yahoo Finance on Monday. AdvertisementThe unwind in the yen carry trade will go down as the biggest ever, according to a Monday note from Societe Generale.

Persons: —, Stocks, Ed Yardeni, that's, Yardeni, That's, Kit Juckes, Warren Buffett's, Juckes, It's Organizations: Service, Yahoo Finance, Bank of Japan, Federal, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan

☆ The economy has demonstrated that these are normal interest rates, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy has demonstrated that these are normal interest rates, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the state of the economy, the Fed's rate path outlook, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ This sell-off is just a market correction of the 'Magnificent 7', says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis sell-off is just a market correction of the 'Magnificent 7', says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the trading day and his market outlook.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni

☆ Tesla keeps touting future plans. But without specific details, investors aren't buying it.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at another Tesla earnings report that was light on details about big future plans . The approach worked well last quarter when Tesla's earnings report was even worse than expected . However, big-picture plans without concrete details fell flat for investors this time around. It's Tesla's silver lining amid the EV market slowdown. But as beneficial as competitors were to Tesla this quarter, others seem to be gearing up for battle.

Persons: Jordan Strauss, Chelsea Jia Feng, Elon, Katherine Tangalakis, Hannah Getahun, that's, —, Musk, Toby Melville, BI's Nora Naughton, It's, BI's Jordan Hart, Sundar Pichai, Waymo, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Wall, Keith Lerner, Ed Yardeni, Michael M, Tyler Le, Jensen Huang, Rebecca Zisser, Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Business, Chelsea, AP, Tesla, Getty, BI Supply, Nvidia, Big Tech, Hollywood, AWS, Microsoft, Paramount, Digital, Google, IBM, Ford Motors, Samsung, Galaxy, The Locations: Waymo, San Francisco, Phoenix, New York, Paris, London

☆ The stock market is approaching 2 catalysts that will spark the next leg of the bull run, market vet says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The record stock market rally will get a boost from key economic data and earnings results, Ed Yardeni said. Yardeni highlighted strong company earnings and profit margins supporting the market in a way it didn't in 2000. AdvertisementThe stock market rally is set to continue this week as investors digest two key pieces of economic data and an onslaught of second-quarter earnings results. "We've acknowledged that the current stock market rally is reminiscent of the valuation-led market meltup of the 1990s. "We're expecting S&P 500 earnings per share of $250, $270, and $300 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, —, We've, we've, Yardeni, We're Organizations: Service, Yardeni Research, PCE, Federal Reserve

☆ Don't bet on the stock-market rotation as small-caps historically suffer when rates come down, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Small-caps historically decline before and after the first interest rate cut, Barclays reported. This argues against the growing narrative that the easing cycle will boost small-caps, the bank said. AdvertisementBarclays ResearchTheir finding opposes many prevailing viewpoints on Wall Street, where rising bets of lower interest rates have sent investors piling into the small-cap trade. In part, falling interest rates might help ease debt burdens, but they can also signal a cooling economy — which favors large-cap exposure. Market veteran Ed Yardeni wrote this week that the small-caps trade has no legs, given the sector's lackluster forward earnings, revenue, and profit margins.

Persons: —, Venu Krishna, Russell, June's, Tom Lee, Ed Yardeni, Liz Young Thomas Organizations: Barclays, Service, NASDAQ, Federal

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