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AdvertisementA key sticking point for the 73,479,065 Americans (and counting) who voted for President-elect Donald Trump was inflation. Inflationary promisesThe main Trump proposals viewed as inflationary are: sweeping tariffs on imports, mass deportation of immigrants, and lower taxes. Related storiesTypically, US companies simply pass the tariff costs to consumers via higher prices, and company executives are already signaling this to investors. Possible inflation falloutIf Trump delivers on all of these proposals, then a rebound in inflation is all but guaranteed, economists have said. AdvertisementIt's worth noting that the tariffs Trump enacted in his first term did not result in a significant inflation increase.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Trump, It's, Taylor Rogers —, Philip Daniele, Timothy Boyle, Wendy Edelberg, Nobel, Paul Krugman, Ned Davis, Veneta Dimitrova, Dimitrova Organizations: Trump, Service, White, Biden, Republican National, Center, Columbia, Washington Post, National Association of Homebuilders, Federal Reserve Locations: China,
Treasury yields have ripped higher of late, even as the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield has soared nearly 70 basis points to 4.3% since mid-September, when the Fed cut rates by a half-point. Despite the Fed's latest action, the incoming Trump administration is likely to keep yields elevated, according to Ned Davis Research. Dimitrova noted that rising debt-to-GDP ratio has been closely linked with higher bond yields. The question for investors now is: How long until higher yields start putting pressure on equities?
Persons: Trump, Ned Davis, Veneta, Dimitrova, Goldman Sachs, BNTX Organizations: Federal Reserve, Ned Davis Research
Investors are expecting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to get a boost from the inclusion of the biggest artificial intelligence beneficiary of the last year. The 30-stock Dow has underperformed this year and last after failing to capitalize on the artificial intelligence boom that helped bolster the comparatively tech-heavy S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. By comparison, the S & P 500 has surged 20% in 2024, after climbing 24% last year. Nvidia shares have gained 179% this year, and last advanced 1.8% in midday trading. Meanwhile, Intel shares have tumbled more than 55% in 2024; on Monday, it was last off by another 3.5%.
Persons: Dow Jones, CFRA Research's Angelo Zino, Dow, Nvidia doesn't, Ned Davis, Zino, bullish Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Ned Davis Research, Blackwell, Intel, Amazon, Walgreens, Alliance, Walgreens Boots Alliance
Those rules were designed to prevent a repeat of the abuses of Richard Nixon, who improperly used the Justice Department to punish his political enemies. A new president appoints roughly 300 senior Justice Department officials, including the U.S. attorneys who run offices across the country. All 300 must be confirmed by the Senate, but multiple former Justice Department officials said they fear Trump would install partisans willing to do his bidding. Justice Department officials have risen to the occasion and defied presidential overreach in the past. You go in and just whack a good portion of the workforce,” the former Justice Department official said.
Persons: Donald Trump, , Trump, don’t, Richard Nixon, , , Joyce Vance, Barbara McQuade, Sen, JD Vance, Vance, Vance’s, Biden Justice Department’s, Hunter Biden, Robert Menendez, Eric Adams, Jack Smith, Aileen Cannon, Cannon, Jeffrey Clark, Clark, Mike Davis, influencer Benny Johnson’s, Davis, Joe Biden, Jan, gulag ”, ” Trump, ” Vance, “ Trump, Stephen Gillers, Gillers, Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell, ” Gillers, Ilya Somin, Somin, Nixon, Archibald Cox, wouldn’t Organizations: NBC, Google, National Public Radio, NBC News, Justice Department, FBI, Trump, Department, U.S, Senate, Drug, Administration, Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, Explosives, DOJ, Biden Justice, Robert Menendez of New, New York, U.S . Capitol, ABC News, Republican, Politico, D.C, gulag, Service, NYU School of Law, George Mason University, senior Locations: U.S, Alabama, Ohio, Georgia, Robert Menendez of, Robert Menendez of New Jersey, New, , acquittals
And how should investors be thinking about future equity returns as the bull market enters its third year riding stellar multi-year performance and facing demanding valuations? So, expansionary policies that would quicken the economy's metabolism and produce more inflation was exactly what the market craved then – but now? Right now, the S & P 500 is up 42% from 18 months ago and fetches 22-times expected earnings. No reliable augurs of a coming bear market are in evidence: S & P up 10 of 11 months, making a new high in September, credit spreads resolutely narrow, all point to an upside bias over a span of months, at least. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Which leaves the question of just how much upside, if any, a bull should reasonably expect from here.
Persons: Warren Pies, Pat Tschosik, Ned Davis, Donald Trump, payrolls, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, 3Fourteen Research, Trump, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Dow, Leuthold, quicken, Wall Locations: U.S, China, Wells
Price of gold is proving an unstoppable force lately
  + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold recently regained momentum after the Federal Reserve began its easing cycle with a half-percentage point rate cut last month. However, the latest upturn comes despite rebounds in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar too, which might be expected to take the wind from gold's sails. Higher yields typically make gold less attractive, as the metal doesn't offer any yield. The 10-year Treasury yield has soared to 4.08% from around 3.7% over the past month. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against the euro, Japanese yen and others, is up nearly 3% over the past month.
Persons: Gold, Andrew Brenner, Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Hayes Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, NatAlliance Securities, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Treasury Locations: NatAlliance
In today's big story, Google Search is going to look a whole lot different thanks to generative AI . According to Rhiannon Bell, the vice president of user experience for Google Search, it's a "pretty dramatic shift from where we were before." AdvertisementAnd yes, in case you were wondering if it was coming, Google is going to start putting ads in its AI Search results — but only when Google deems them relevant. Google's new AI-organized search results GoogleSearch's revamp addresses a big concern for the rest of the internet. One survey conducted earlier this year found 60% of people who used Google's AI search found it more effective than non-AI powered Search.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, Tyler Le, Hugh Langley, Tech's, Hugh, Rhiannon Bell, Gen, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Ned Davis, Kalshi, Andy Jassy F, Carter Smith, Chelsea Jia Feng, Andy Jassy, Marc Andreessen, he's, Alyssa Powell, dockworkers, hasn't, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi, Amanda Yen Organizations: Business, Service, Costco, Tech, Google, Getty, Ned, Ned Davis Research, CFTC, Bloomberg, Getty Images, Amazon, LinkedIn, YouTube, EU . US Department of Labor Locations: China, San Francisco, EU, New York, London
The two-year-old bull market in stocks could last for another year, NDR strategists said. Median gains in the third year of a bull market are about 13%, the firm said in its analysis. AdvertisementThe latest bull market in stocks may still have a long life ahead of it, according to Ned Davis Research. In one instance, the bull market ended after the Fed reversed its rate cut decision, spooking investors. The S&P 500 has gained 60% since the index entered bull market territory in October 2022.
Persons: That's, , Ned Davis Organizations: Service, Ned Davis Research, NDR Locations: Europe
This latest bull run has been strong, even by historical standards. The broad market index has also reached a record above 5,700 — with some on the Street expecting it to top 6,000 before year-end. The bull market will be two later this month. .SPX mountain 2022-09-30 SPX since Q4 2022 The first: "The disinflation that has defined the cyclical bull needs to remain in place," said Clissold. The second element needed for the bull run to carry on is a successful soft landing.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Clissold Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Fed, JPMorgan
In Catawba County, North Carolina, a 4-year-old who lit up every room she walked into was killed in a head-on car crash on a rainy road. And in Charlotte, North Carolina, a tree fell on a home, killing a resident. Leon Davis via FacebookOn Thursday morning, Davis’ brother, James Carlas Davis, who lives in Mississippi, texted Davis, their two sisters and other family members in a group text chat and asked whether they were ready for Helene. In North Carolina, officials said a resident of Charlotte was pronounced dead early Friday after wind and rain caused a tree to topple onto their home. Gaddis, who lives in Iredell County, North Carolina, added that her faith has helped her through the tragedy of losing Luna.
Persons: Hurricane Helene, Vernon Leon Davis, Christopher Wright, Davis, Wright, Blackshear, ” Wright, , ” Leon Davis, Leon Davis, James Carlas Davis, texted Davis, Helene, emoji, James Davis, Shirley, ” Davis, Rellina Davis Lester, , Luna Jade Gaddis, Luna, Lyndsey Nicole Gaddis, Tiffany Miner Sipe, Elizabeth Gaddis, Gaddis, Him, Vernon Leon Davis ’, Lester, ” Lester Organizations: Blackshear Police, Facebook, North Carolina, Patrol, NBC News, Locations: Blackshear , Georgia, Hurricane, Catawba County , North Carolina, Charlotte , North Carolina, Florida , Georgia, Virginia, Carolinas, In Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, Charlotte, Catawba, Claremont, Iredell County , North Carolina, Georgia, Ware, Culloden , Georgia, Germany, Fort Knox , Kentucky, Fort Hood , Texas
The secular bull market, which began in 2009, is in a mature stage according to NDR's Tim Hayes. "With the secular bull mature, we're watching out for signs that it may be at risk," he said. AdvertisementWith the S&P 500 in its 15th year of a secular bull market that started in 2009, Ned Davis Research says investors should watch for warning signs of a potential peak. The first warning sign of a near-term peak in the stock market is worsening breadth among the underlying issues of the US stock market. And a rebound in inflation, coupled with rising interest rates, would be an unwelcome warning sign for the current bull rally in stocks.
Persons: Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, , Hayes Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Service, NDR
Davis, who will be sentenced in December, faces a maximum of six years in prison, according to the plea agreement. The student, who has only been identified as Z.F., was seated near the back of the bus when Davis boarded and sat down nearby, according to the plea agreement. The incident left many Asian American students at the university shaken, with several previously telling NBC News that they did not feel sufficiently supported. Some pointed out that the anti-Asian hate was particularly concerning given the area’s history of race-related violence against Asian students. Former IU student Benjamin Smith, a vocal white supremacist, murdered 26-year-old doctoral student Won-Joon Yoon in 1999 outside the Korean United Methodist Church.
Persons: Billie Davis, Davis, Leslie D, Samuel Ansell, “ Ms, , Marah Yankey, Benjamin Smith, Joon Yoon, Smith Organizations: Indiana University Bloomington, NBC News, Bloomington Police Department, Indiana University, Korean United Methodist Church Locations: American
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Wharton's Jeremy Siegel, Ned Davis’ Ed Clissold and Hightower’s Stephanie LinkWharton's Jeremy Siegel, Ned Davis’ Ed Clissold and Hightower’s Stephanie Link, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss markets, the Fed and inflation.
Persons: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Stephanie Link, Jeremy Siegel
Investors haven't become super pessimistic on stocks since the recent volatility bout began. Specifically, the firm's Crowd Sentiment Poll — a gauge for intermediate market sentiment — shows excessive optimism among investors after dipping to neutral last month. NDR's nearer-term daily trading composite, meanwhile, points to more neutral sentiment. Wall Street is also anxiously looking ahead to the U.S. presidential election in November. So bottom line: It may take another bout of selling to shake out the weak bullish investors and restart the long-term trend.
Persons: Ned Davis, London Stockton, Goldman Sachs downgrades, Morgan Stanley, Richard Ramsden Organizations: Ned Davis Research, London, Reserve, U.S Locations: NDR's
In recent years wildfires have regularly burned in and around Wrightwood, a picturesque mountain town 60 miles east of Los Angeles known for its 1930s cabins. In neighboring Orange County, firefighters used bulldozers, helicopters and planes to control a rapidly spreading blaze called the Airport Fire that started Monday and spread to about 3 square miles in only a few hours. Concialdi said the fire was burning away from homes in Orange County, but there are 36 recreational cabins in the area. Residents along the southern edge of Big Bear Lake were told to leave the area Tuesday night, according to the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department. The blaze had charred more than 51 square miles of grass and brush and blanketed the area with a thick cloud of dark smoke.
Persons: Big Bear, Robert Luna, Janice Quick, texted, Quick, “ I’ve, I’ve, , Steve Concialdi, Concialdi, Sherri Fankhauser, Fankhauser, ” Fankhauser, “ It’s, Davis, Joe Lombardo, Charles Moore Organizations: Chamber of Commerce, Orange County Fire, San Bernardino National Forest, Residents, San, San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department, Nevada Gov, Sunday, National Weather Service, Truckee Meadows Fire Locations: , California, Los Angeles, Big, Wrightwood, Los Angeles County, Orange County, Riverside County, San Bernardino County, Northern California, Clearlake City, San Francisco, Idaho , Oregon, Nevada, Reno, Davis, Washoe, Washoe County, Truckee Meadows
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bullish drivers of the market haven't changed, says Ned Davis' Ed ClissoldEd Clissold, Ned Davis Research chief U.S. strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed and his market outlook.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold Ed Clissold Organizations: Ned Davis Research
The doc includes more than 500 submissions from people who identified themselves as Microsoft employees in the US. The move came in response to a growing number of its workers feeling underpaid compared to Microsoft's tech peers like Amazon . AdvertisementAs a reminder, this pay data is based on Microsoft employees' self-reporting, so it's not a complete picture. However, the pay gap between Microsoft AI and the rest of the company is undeniable. These are the 100 most-used AI apps, according to a top VC.
Persons: , Chelsea Jia Feng, Insider's Ashley Stewart, Ashley, Satya Nadella, Drew Angerer, Mustafa Suleyman, it's, they're, Tyler Le, Jerome, Jerome Powell's, Goldman Sachs, Jamie Dimon's, Dimon, Ned Davis, Justin Sullivan, Andreessen Horowitz, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Jack, Jerome Powell, Sabrina Carpenter, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Business, Microsoft Microsoft, Getty, Bloomberg Creative, JPMorgan, Treasury, Ned Davis Research, Big Tech, RBC Capital Markets, Consumer, Engineers, BI Locations: Washington, New York, London
… It seems like even though their heart rate does accelerate, it’s much more even (than the other spider’s heart rates),” he added. To test the spiders’ heart rates, Davis and study coauthor Christina Vu, who was a University of Georgia undergraduate student of entomology at the time, wrangled 79 spiders from two different genera. The Jorō spiders (top left) had to be carefully restrained using pins in order to measure the arachnids' heart rates. They compared the spiders’ resting heart rates to their heart rates during restraint and found all the spiders’ heart rates increased, but the Argiope spiders, which are known to avoid urban settings, had many more spikes as they struggled to run away, according to the research. … To observe spider heart rates, they must be restrained in the first place, which causes a heart rate elevation,” he said.
Persons: I’ve, ’ ”, Andy Davis, panicking, Davis, Christina Vu, , ” Vu, Jorōs, , , Floyd Shockley, ” Shockley, Jay Stafstrom, ” Stafstrom, they’re Organizations: CNN —, University of Georgia, University of Georgia’s Odum, of Ecology, University, Georgia, Smithsonian National Museum of, Cornell University Locations: United States, Asia, Georgia, West Virginia , Tennessee, Maryland, Canada, arachnophobes, Washington , DC, Ithaca , New York
Turn to these dividend growers as the Fed cuts rates
  + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
As the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, it makes sense that investors might turn to dividend stocks. In slow tightening cycles, fast dividend growers have outperformed slow growers and high yielders, the firm found in its analysis. The fastest growers are defined as the top 25% of the S & P 500 payers by trailing one-year dividend growth, while the slowest are the bottom 25%. We looked within the top 25% of S & P 500 dividend stocks by trailing one-year dividend growth. They also have a dividend yield of more than 2% and an upside of 10% or more to the average price target.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Clissold, Prologis, SLB Organizations: Federal Reserve, Ned Davis Research, Ned, CNBC, CNBC Pro, Wall, Resorts, Equinix Locations: Real, Aker
A wild week of trading on Wall Street ended with the S & P 500 back roughly where it started, but the lessons learned by whipsawed investors over those five days could determine what happens next. The S & P 500 had its worst day since 2022 on Monday, and then its best since 2022 on Thursday. But with the S & P 500 ending the week down less than 0.1% in a calm session on Friday, the market seems to have stabilized. .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500 finished the week nearly flat. And I think that has to do with investors really being a little bit skeptical about some of this equity market volatility."
Persons: Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Gennadiy Goldberg, didn't, Jeremy Schwartz, Peter Berezin, aren't, Wellington, Frank Gretz, RJ O'Brien, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick Organizations: Wall, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, TD Securities, CNBC, Japan —, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, BCA Research, Wellington Shields, Associates Locations: Japan
With ongoing affordability challenges exacerbated by high interest rates and inflated home values, housing is a major concern for Americans across the political spectrum. "When I talk to Americans, one of the biggest concerns I hear is, 'Why are housing costs so high?' In the past, Vance has blamed the housing affordability crisis largely on high interest rates. Many economists disagree with Vance's argument about the source of the housing affordability crisis and his solution to it. They've also blamed the current administration for relatively high interest rates, which are determined by the independent Federal Reserve and designed to control inflation.
Persons: , JD Vance, Vance, Sean Hannity, Kamala Harris, Daryl Fairweather, Fairweather, hasn't, Ned Davis, There's, Donald Trump's, Biden, Harris, They've Organizations: Service, Fox News, Republican, Business, Federal Reserve, Ned Davis Research, Trump Locations: Ukraine
Investors are de-risking their portfolios amid recession fears, driving a stock-market sell-off. AdvertisementThe stock market's recession playbook is in full swing as suddenly panicked investors look to aggressively de-risk their portfolios amid fears of a downturn. Investors are questioning whether the Federal Reserve waited too long to cut interest rates and whether it's too late to fend off recession. AdvertisementDetailed below are four outperforming areas of the market that make it clear investors are employing the recession playbook:1. "Next's year's pricing makes sense if the US economy falls into recession and/or inflation tumbles below the Fed's 2% target," analysts said of the market's rate-cut expectations.
Persons: , it's, they've, David Sekera, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Ned Davis Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Treasury, Bloomberg, Morningstar, Global, ETF, Rosenberg Research, Ned Davis Research
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today's big story, what to expect from OpenAI's newest AI model that's in the works. GPT-5, the newest model upgrade for OpenAI's chatbot, is coming soon . AdvertisementOpenAI has a lot riding on its newest model, including its ability to get customers to cough up more cash. That's not ideal for a company that's preparing to take on one of the biggest juggernauts in tech: Google's Search.
Persons: , Z's, Let's, Nordin Catic, OpenAI, Darius Rafieyan, Darius, ChatGPT, Justin Sullivan, Chelsea Jia Feng, it's, Sam Altman, Ned Davis, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, David Zalubowski, Chiang Ying, Mark Zuckerberg, Jensen Huang, Alexa von Tobel, Tyler Le, Mark Zuckerberg's, It's, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Getty, OpenAI, Ned Davis Research, Blackstone, Harvard, Microsoft, Starbucks, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Fed, Meta, Boeing, Kraft Locations: undergrad, New York, China, London
The cyclical bull rally starting in October 2022 is expected to last into 2025, according to Ned Davis Research. The firm highlights a chart that shows the historical trends of cyclical bull market rallies, and when they typically end. The research firm published a note last week that included a chart illustrating prior cyclical bull rallies within a secular bull market, as is the current rally. To monitor the current health of the bull rally in stocks, the research firm suggests investors closely monitor earnings results. Ultimately, the recent correction "should give way to another leg higher in the continuing bull market," Ned Davis Research concluded.
Persons: Ned Davis, , Ned Davis Research, bode Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Service, Nasdaq
CNN —The flight attendant involved in an incident that led to Terrell Davis’ removal from a United Airlines plane in handcuffs “is no longer employed” and the NFL Hall of Famer’s “no fly” ban has been lifted, the airline told CNN Tuesday. Additionally, the airline said the flight attendant involved in the controversy is no longer an employee. It was not immediately clear if the flight attendant’s employment status is a result of the incident involving Davis. The letter “was generated due to the report of the flight attendant - who is no longer employed by United,” Leslie Scott, a spokesperson for United Airlines, said in a statement to CNN. I did not see or interact with him further for the duration of the flight,” Davis wrote July 15, two days after the incident.
Persons: Terrell Davis, , Davis, United, Parker Stinar, ” Stiner, ” Davis, ” Leslie Scott, , Stinar, CNN’s Erin Burnett, ‘ Don’t Organizations: CNN, United Airlines, NFL, United Express, United, Mr, Davis ’, John Wayne Airport Locations: California, @united, Denver, Orange County , California
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