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☆ Britain’s 'mini-budget' disaster should serve as a warning to the U.S., bond strategists say
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-21 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFears are mounting that the U.S. could soon experience its own version of Britain's "mini-budget" crisis, with bond strategists warning that Donald Trump's return to the White House brings with it the specter of currency volatility and surging bond yields. The former president's economic agenda has ratcheted up concerns about a surge in consumer prices, which strategists say could spark significant shifts in bond yields and investor behavior. They warn a scenario that mirrors Britain's mini-budget crisis of 2022 is not out of the question. watch nowBritain's mini-budget crisis refers to a tumultuous period under former Prime Minister Liz Truss and ex-Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng. Bond yields tend to rise when market participants expect higher consumer prices or a growing budget deficit.

Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Trump, Remtulla, Liz Truss, Kwasi Kwarteng, Kwarteng, Althea Spinozzi, Trump's, Spinozzi, Angela Weiss, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, Thierry Wizman, likelier, Wizman Organizations: Economic, of New, Bloomberg, Getty, EFG, CNBC, U.S ., Finance, U.S, Bank of England, Saxo Bank, White, Treasury, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Capital Economics, Macquarie Group Locations: of New York, New York, U.S, Foreign, Treasurys, Treasuries, New York City, America

The stock market has always pulled back when valuations are stretched as they are now, according to Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen in a note to clients this week. "[T]urning points can happen quickly, and … when valuations are stretched to start with, there can be limited scope for further gains," Allen noted. "[E]xamples of high returns through history have often been followed by sizeable reversals." The bank cited lofty current readings in the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio developed by economist Robert Shiller, arguing that "the CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 has only been higher on two other occasions in the last century" than it is today. "Indeed, on both the occasions the CAPE ratio has got as high as it is today, there was then a significant correction."

Persons: Henry Allen, Allen, Robert Shiller, — Scott Schnipper Organizations: Deutsche Bank

After flatlining the week before, mortgage demand rose last week, despite mortgage rates increasing for the fourth straight week. Total application volume climbed 1.7% compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 2% for the week but were 1% lower than the same week one year ago. Purchase demand was driven by conventional and FHA loans, with FHA purchase applications seeing a 7% increase. Mortgage rates are about flat so far this week, according to a separate survey from Mortgage News Daily.

Persons: ”, Joel Kan, Matthew Graham Organizations: Mortgage, Mortgage News Locations: Ukraine, Russia

☆ Weekly mortgage demand inched up, despite higher interest rates. Here's why.
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

After flatlining the week before, mortgage demand rose last week, despite mortgage rates rising for the fourth straight week. Total application volume increased 1.7% compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 2% for the week but were 1% lower than the same week one year ago. Purchase demand was driven by conventional and FHA loans, with FHA purchase applications seeing a 7% increase. Mortgage rates are about flat so far this week, according to a separate survey from Mortgage News Daily.

Persons: Joel Kan, Matthew Graham Organizations: Mortgage, Mortgage News, U.S Locations: Ukraine, Russia

☆ Nobel laureate Simon Johnson is skeptical that Trump will be able to follow up on his two biggest campaign promises — here's why
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

"I'm skeptical he'll actually do it," Johnson said of Trump's tariff policy. With all of these negative implications, Johnson isn't convinced that Trump's tariffs will be as drastic as they were presented on the campaign trail. Mass deportation is a logistical nightmareTrump's mass deportation plans don't make economic sense to Johnson, either. It's still too early to predict how Trump's policies will pan out, but for now, Johnson is seeing drastic barriers to Trump's tariff and immigration plans. Should Trump go through with his tariff and immigration policies, it'll be up to the American people to judge their efficacy and implementation.

Persons: Donald Trump, Nobel, Simon Johnson doesn't, Johnson, Simon Johnson, Trump, We've, They're, he'll, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Johnson isn't, it's, Thomas Homan, That's, It's, they're, it'll Organizations: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Trump, American Immigration Locations: China, Johnson, Vietnam, Mexico, United States

☆ Markets think the odds of a Fed pause in December are rising
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AdvertisementTraders see a 45% chance the Fed pauses rate cuts in December, up from 17% last week. The rising odds come as markets digest a win for Trump, whose policies could complicate the Fed's plans. After two consecutive interest rate cuts, markets think the Federal Reserve might be ready to hit pause. AdvertisementThe rising odds come as markets continue to digest a win for Donald Trump, and as Fed officials have sounded cautious on the path of future policy easing in recent remarks. AdvertisementThe rising odds of a pause also come as Fed speakers this week have struck a cautious tone.

Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, David Kelly, Jerome Powell, he'd, Trump, JPMorgan's Kelly, They're, Kelly, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Cook, Powell Organizations: Trump, Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, Federal, University of Virginia Locations: West Palm Beach , Florida, Charlottesville, Dallas

☆ China expectedly keeps benchmark lending rates steady as Beijing assesses stimulus measures
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Anniek Bao | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

China's central bank on Wednesday kept major benchmark lending rates unchanged, as Beijing assesses the effects of its recent stimulus measures. The People's Bank of China said it would keep the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%. The 1-year LPR affects corporate and most household loans in China, while the 5-year LPR acts as a benchmark for mortgage rates. Only retail sales beat expectations, with a 4.8% year-on-year increase, indicating that recent stimulus had started seeping into certain sectors of the economy. Goldman, however, maintained "overweight" stance on China equities, forecasting a 13% upside to the benchmark CSI 300 index next year.

Persons: Bruce Pang, Pang, Pan Gongsheng, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Donald Trump's Organizations: People's Bank of China, People's Bank of, Reuters, Ministry of Finance Locations: Beijing, China's, People's Bank of China, China, JLL

☆ Euro-dollar parity is back in focus as Trump win sparks trade jitters
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The euro has declined rapidly, meanwhile, briefly dipping below $1.05 on Nov. 14 for the first time since October 2023. Modeling by Barclays' economists shows the euro hitting dollar parity with a 10% tariff on European products and subsequent retaliation. The bank said the prospect of Trump tariffs and fiscal reforms had caused it to revise its view that the dollar would gradually decline through the year, instead seeing the U.S. currency "stronger for longer." Since hitting a low in September 2022, the euro has been comfortably back above parity even if below its long-range average. One of those 2022 factors roared back into focus this week, weighing broadly on European assets: the threat of escalating tensions with Russia.

Persons: Donald Trump, James Reilly, Reilly, George Saravelos, Trump, Saravelos, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: U.S, Republican, China —, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, Federal, European Central Bank, FX Research, Deutsche Bank, Trump, Barclays, ECB, Fed Locations: Congress, China, U.S, Europe, Russia, Ukraine

☆ Trump tariffs to push down U.S. growth 'a great deal' going into 2026, Morgan Stanley warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Donald Trump's proposed tariffs will dent U.S. economic growth going into 2026, said Morgan Stanley's chief global economist Seth Carpenter. In the event that they are enacted all at once, they could result in a "big negative shock" to the economy, Carpenter told CNBC's Sri Jegarajah on the sidelines of Morgan Stanley's annual Asia Pacific Summit in Singapore. Carpenter, who maintained Morgan Stanley's base case of these tariffs being spread over 2025, said they would lead to higher inflation. "Then into 2026, we think growth starts to come down a great deal in the U.S. because of those tariffs and some of the other policies," he cautioned. Very clear, tariffs are a drag on growth for the U.S., not just for the countries that the tariffs are put on," Carpenter added.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Morgan Stanley's, Seth Carpenter, Trump, Carpenter, CNBC's Sri, Morgan, Mark Malek, Siebert, Joe Biden, Trump's, Malek, Ben Emons Organizations: Asia Pacific Summit, Microsoft, Apple, U.S . Federal Reserve, FedWatch Advisors Locations: China, CNBC's Sri Jegarajah, Morgan Stanley's, Singapore, U.S

☆ Brewing worker resentment could fuel a 2025 quitting spree
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Jennifer Liu | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The job market could be poised for a fresh wave of people quitting, according to a new Glassdoor report. Employees' satisfaction in their career opportunities has been on the decline since 2022 after people settled into new roles following the post-pandemic hiring boom known as the Great Resignation. "People don't feel like the job market is working for them right now, even if you hear economists and policymakers talk about how strong and resilient the job market is," Glassdoor senior economist Daniel Zhao tells CNBC Make It. "The desire [to quit] is there, but the opportunities aren't," Zhao says. For example, some sectors, like housing, real estate and tech, could be buoyed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, Zhao says.

Persons: Daniel Zhao, Zhao, Terry Petzold, Donald Trump Organizations: CNBC, Fox Search, White

☆ Thanksgiving meals are expected to be cheaper in 2024 as turkey prices drop
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

And when it comes to Thanksgiving food, it seems Americans are getting relief on their grocery bills this year following a few years of escalating costs. The national average cost for a 16-pound turkey is down 6% from 2023, according to the Farm Bureau. Overall turkey prices have decreased about 4% in the past year, according to the consumer price index. Farmers raised about 205 million turkeys in 2024, down 6% from 2023, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The aggregate impact has been lower turkey prices.

Persons: Robin Wenzel, Bernt Nelson, Nelson, Monty Rakusen, That's, —, Robin Wenzel Wells, Wenzel Organizations: American Farm Bureau Federation, Farm Bureau, Deloitte, Finance, Food Institute, Farm, Farmers, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Digitalvision, Getty, Food, USDA Locations: Wells, Turkey, U.S, Ukraine

☆ China should be more worried about potential European tariffs than Trump: Economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina should be more worried about potential European tariffs than Trump: EconomistWilliam Lee of the Milken Institute says that Chinese President Xi is laying the groundwork at the G20 meeting to prepare for the changes to global trade when Trump takes office.

Persons: William Lee, Xi, Trump Organizations: China, Trump, Milken Institute

☆ Trump 2.0: U.S. growth likely to 'come down a great deal' in 2026, Morgan Stanley economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTrump 2.0: U.S. growth likely to 'come down a great deal' in 2026, Morgan Stanley economist saysSeth Carpenter, global chief economist at Morgan Stanley, says the impact of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's tariffs will depend on how they're implemented — "all at once" or "phased in over time."

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Seth Carpenter, Donald Organizations: Trump

☆ Russia's top central banker says the country's economy is at a 'turning point'
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Meghan Morris | Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AdvertisementRussia's central bank has been hiking its key interest rate to combat inflation. Business leaders have slammed Russia's increasing interest rate, saying it restricted their growth. Russia's top central banker, Elvira Nabiullina, told the government yesterday that the country is approaching a "turning point" for inflation and interest rates, Moscow-based RBC Group reported. Last month, to tame prices, Russia's central bank hiked its key interest rate to a record high of 21%. He also downgraded Russia's fixed capital investment growth from 1.9% to 1%, blaming the central bank's key rate.

Persons: Elvira Nabiullina, Nabiullina, Andrei Klepach, Alexander Shokhin Organizations: Business, RBC Group, State Duma, Industrialists Locations: Moscow, Ukraine, Russia, Russian Union

☆ The Economist's Tom Standage shares his outlook for 2025
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Economist's Tom Standage shares his outlook for 2025Tom Standage, editor of The Economist's World Ahead 2025 gives Steve Sedgwick and Karen Tso his predictions for 2025.

Persons: Tom Standage, Steve Sedgwick, Karen Tso

☆ Cheaper turkeys help bring down Thanksgiving dinner costs this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Vanessa Yurkevich | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —Thanksgiving dinner will cost less this year than last but will still be 19% higher than before the pandemic, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual Thanksgiving survey out Wednesday. The average cost of this year’s dinner for 10 people is $58.08, or about $5.80 per person, the survey found. The center piece of the Thanksgiving meal, the turkey, helped bring down the overall cost. But items like cubed stuffing and dinner rolls both increased by 8% because of higher labor costs, the AFBF said. The cost of the Thanksgiving dinner items varies based on location, the survey found.

Persons: ”, Bernt Nelson, “, Zippy Duvall, Joe Biden, Donald Trump Organizations: CNN, American Farm Bureau, American Farm Bureau Federation, Cranberries, Farm Bureau Locations: Puerto Rico, Midwest

But planning ahead to take advantage of them is getting harder, and that’s largely thanks to Amazon. NBC News’ Holiday Price Check is tracking the online prices of five gift items, each in a popular product category, to determine when the best deals hit. Already, it’s clear that Amazon is often setting the pace. Target, for example, has narrowed the online price gap with Amazon in key product categories since last year, Profitero found. But for retailers, the race for shoppers’ holiday dollars is increasingly a discounting competition.

Persons: “, Trae Bodge, ”, Profitero, Vivek Pandya, upmanship, Janelle Rasey, “ We’ll, Donald Trump, Jack Kleinhenz, you’re, it’s, It’s, ” Pandya Organizations: Amazon . NBC, Amazon, Walmart, Amazon Prime, Amazon’s, AirPods, NBC News, House, NBC, Retail, National Retail Federation, “ Locations: Seattle

☆ Central banks now 'focused on the fight for growth,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCentral banks now 'focused on the fight for growth,' economist saysKokou Agbo-Bloua, global head of economics, cross-asset and quant research at Societe Generale, discusses the economic and central banking outlook.

Persons: Kokou Agbo Organizations: Societe Generale

☆ Doubts mount over Britain’s ambitious growth plans — with warnings of further tax rises possible
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A higher economic growth rate could theoretically boost the government's tax take without the need to raise taxes further, because overall revenues would be higher. The OBR now expects U.K. real GDP growth of 1.1% in 2024, followed by expansion of 2% in 2025, before falling to 1.5%. The Labour government did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment on further possible tax changes. 'Desperate' growth ratesThe U.K. economy barely grew in the third quarter, eking out a less-than-expected 0.1% expansion, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Friday. We've had 1% growth, or around 1% growth now since the Financial Crisis.

Persons: Rachel Reeves, James Smith, CNBC's, John Grieve, Reeves, Gieve, —, Labour's, ING's Smith, We've Organizations: Treasury, Getty, Labour, Finance, ING, of, CNBC, National Insurance, Office, National Statistics, Gross Locations: London, England

☆ 'Go for gold' says Goldman Sachs, but other Wall Street banks aren't so sure
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Three Wall Street banks have taken differing views on gold's trajectory in 2025, reflecting the complex economic outlook. Goldman Sachs expects the price of the yellow metal to reach $3,000 per ounce by December 2025, saying "Go For Gold" in a note from Nov. 17. The gold price has declined by 7% since late October as the risk of a disputed U.S. election result diminished. While maintaining a positive outlook on gold, UBS warned that its gains — gold had risen 35% this year until November — could slow down. Goldman Sachs pointed to a fivefold increase in central bank gold purchases, driven by concerns about financial sanctions and sovereign debt sustainability.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump's, Goldman, Daan Struyven, Karen Ward, Ward, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Trump, JPMorgan Asset Management, UBS Locations: U.S, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Switzerland, Russia, Ukraine

☆ RFK Jr. heading HHS could be a game changer, says Solus' Dan Greenhaus
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRFK Jr. heading HHS could be a game changer, says Solus' Dan GreenhausDan Greenhaus, Solus chief strategist and economist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss navigating an indecisive market, the Trump trade and his market outlook.

Persons: Solus, Dan Greenhaus Dan Greenhaus, Trump Organizations: RFK, HHS

☆ Europe’s auto giants face a ‘perfect storm’ of challenges, ING economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEurope’s auto giants face a ‘perfect storm’ of challenges, ING economist saysING's Rico Luman, a senior sector economist with a focus on transport, logistics and the automotive industry, discusses the future of Sweden’s ailing battery giant Northvolt and the outlook for Europe’s auto sector.

Persons: ING's Rico Luman Organizations: ING

☆ How Trump's rich Cabinet members could save millions thanks to a little-known tax break
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( Hayley Cuccinello | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

AdvertisementTwo of the reported candidates for Treasury Secretary made their fortunes on Wall Street, including billionaire Apollo CEO Marc Rowan. Eligible federal appointees can defer capital gains taxes indefinitely when they sell stock or other assets in order to avoid a conflict of interest. As a top earner in New York, they would normally have to pay more than $3 million in capital gains taxes. The sum that would have been spent on capital gains taxes is now free to compound and grow. The IRS allows investors to defer capital gains taxes in other scenarios that are deemed outside their control.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, Howard Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald, Major Trump, Chris Wright, Marc Rowan, Bush, Goldman Sachs, Henry Paulson, George H.W, Bob Willens, You've, Scott Bessent, frontrunners, eyeing Rowan, Kevin Warsh, Morgan Stanley, Warsh, Jane Lauder, Rowan, Ed Renn of Withersworldwide, Penny Pritzker, Mark Parthemer, Willens, Renn Organizations: Commerce, of Energy, Treasury, Executives, Columbia Business School, Federal Reserve, Government, IRS Locations: George H.W . Bush, New York

☆ Nearly half of Americans say they live paycheck to paycheck—only 30% actually do, new Bank of America data finds
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( Kamaron Mcnair | In Kamaronmcnair | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

As a result, the share of Americans saying they live paycheck to paycheck has been growing fairly steadily for the past two years, a recent Bank of America survey found. Nearly half of Americans at least somewhat agree with the statement, "I am living paycheck to paycheck," as of the third quarter of 2024. Importantly, how each respondent defines living paycheck to paycheck may vary. By that measure, around 30% of American households are living paycheck to paycheck, according to Bank of America's internal data. If it becomes unaffordable, that person may feel like they're living paycheck to paycheck, Tinsley says.

Persons: that's, David Tinsley, Tinsley Organizations: of America, Bank of America, Bank of, Bank of America Institute Locations: Bank

☆ Hiring will be growth orientated and more strategic in 2025, ADP chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHiring will be growth orientated and more strategic in 2025, ADP chief economist saysNela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, discusses employment in the U.S. and explains how President-elect Donald Trump will impact the U.S. labour market.

Persons: Nela Richardson, Donald Trump Organizations: ADP Locations: U.S

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