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Dollar pulls ahead as markets focus on Trump policies, Fed outlook
  + stars: | 2024-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
After stalling for three sessions, the greenback was back on the march higher, with investors lifting the dollar index measure against its key rivals closer to a one-year high of 107.07 hit last week. The dollar has rallied more than 2% since the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election on bets Trump's policies could reignite inflation and temper the Fed's future rate cuts. The dollar index held steady at 106.56, up from a one-week nadir hit in the previous session. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict is heating up, which is further denting sentiment towards the euro alongside the prospects of trade tariffs," another "bullish cue" for the dollar index given the euro's heavy weighting, City Index's Simpson said. The dollar gave up some gains against the yen, down 0.33% at 154.91 yen , although the Japanese currency remained under pressure.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Matt Simpson, CME's, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Index's Simpson, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling, bitcoin, Bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Storm, ATACMS, Bank of Japan, Bank of England's Locations: Europe, China, Russia, Ukraine, Paris
Nvidia earnings results this week are more important to the stock market than the Federal Reserve or even jobs data, according to the options market. But Jensen Huang's company remains crucially important to the market, according to Wall Street firms tracking the options market. NVDA 1D mountain Nvidia The options market shows an implied move of 8% for Nvidia, according to Barclays. For investors, how Nvidia moves could determine what is next for a market that has been flagging lately following the postelection rally, according to Bank of America Securities' Asis. Asis recommends hedging against the earnings results in case Nvidia disappoints.
Persons: Jensen, Gonzalo Asis, Asis, Stefano Pascale Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Wall, Bank of America Securities, Sunday, Nvidia, CPI, Barclays, Bank of America, Apple, Microsoft Locations: Asis
CNBC asked Intrepid Travel and ChatGPT to put together a two-day itinerary to Melbourne City, AustraliaAsia-Pacific markets are set to open higher on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street gains buoyed by a Tesla rally, and as traders wait to watch key Chinese financial policymakers speak at an investment summit in Hong Kong. Futures for Australia's S&P/ASX 200 stood at 8,327, slightly higher than the index's last close of 8,300.2. Japan's Nikkei 225 futures pointed to a stronger open for the market, with the futures contract in Chicago at 38,275 and its counterpart in Osaka at 38,310 compared to the previous close of 38,220.85. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures were at 19,766, higher than the HSI's last close of 19,576.61. The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish the minutes from its monetary policy meeting earlier this month, where it held its benchmark interest rate for the eighth meeting in a row at 4.35%.
Organizations: CNBC, Intrepid Travel, Futures, Australia's, Japan's Nikkei, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: Melbourne City, Australia Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, Chicago, Osaka
Stocks still have significant gains in front of them heading into 2025, at least according to BMO Capital Markets. Although bull markets over the past 50 years have averaged about six years in length, the current bull market is just starting its third year but, unfortunately, the third year of past bull markets have been the weakest of the bunch, he cautioned. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 is little changed on Monday, but has gained about 23% in 2024. Heading into 2024, the S & P 500 had advanced more than 24% in 2023. The latter envisions the S & P 500 ending 2025 at 5,500, or about a 6% decline from the index's current price, mostly as a result of inflation picking up steam.
Persons: Stocks, Brian Belski, Belski, Belksi Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, BMO, Federal Reserve, & $ Locations: Canadian
Asia-Pacific markets are set to open mixed on Tuesday, with investors expected to exercise caution even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average's post-election rally continued to gain momentum to close at a record high. Futures for Australia's S&P/ASX 200 stood at 8,279, slightly higher than the index's last close of 8,259. Japan's Nikkei 225 futures pointed to a stronger open for the market, with the futures contract in Chicago at 39,660 and its counterpart in Osaka at 39,630 compared to the previous close of 39,533.32Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures were at 20,324, lower than the HSI's last close of 20,426.93.
Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Australia's, Nikkei Locations: Asia, Pacific, Chicago, Osaka
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the morning trading on Nov. 7, 2024. Stock futures are near flat Sunday night as Wall Street looks to what's next after a post-election rally propelled the market to record highs. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 19 points, trading slightly above breakeven. S&P 500 futures were also little changed, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.2%. Last week's rally was considered broad, with both the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and small cap-focused Russell 2000 also advancing.
Persons: what's, Russell, Donald Trump, Jerome Powell, Katie Nixon Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Traders, Trust, Ticketmaster
Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Performance since Nov. 1 closeThe stock market reaction Wednesday to Republican Donald Trump's victory over Democrat Kamala Harris was swift and powerful, sending the Dow , the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to all-time highs. For the week, consumer discretionary, energy, industrials, financials, and information technology were the top five sectors. Only time will tell how the balance of power will play out and whether it's good or bad for the stock market. Barring anything catastrophic, President Joe Biden and Vice President Harris will hand Trump the baton of a healthy economy with moderating inflation and a strong stock market. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Disney YTDDisney reports before the bell Thursday, and its experiences business will be in focus as it has softened recently due to the recent hurricane activity that forced closures at Florida theme park locations and inflation-weary consumers.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jerome Powell, Drew Angerer, Republican Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Dow, Jim Cramer, Wells Fargo Morgan Stanley, Trump, Joe Biden, Harris, FactSet, Helene, Milton, we're, Disney's, Tyson, JD.com Organizations: Federal, White House, Republican, Dow, Nasdaq, Staples, Honeywell, White, Capitol, Republicans, NBC News, Trump, Depot, Disney, CPI, PPI, Home Depot, Summer, IAC, Hertz, Tyson Foods, TSN, AstraZeneca, Occidental Petroleum, Rocket Companies, Cisco, Parts Locations: Washington ,, financials, Washington, inflect, Florida, Paris
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Powell, in yesterday's press conference, maintained that "the election will have no effect on our policy decisions." According to the futures market, just 30.4% of traders think the Fed will cut rates again in January. "By December, we'll have more data, I guess one more employer report, two more inflation reports and lots of other data," Powell said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Caballero, Reynolds, Jim Reid, Trump, Scott Helfstein, Powell, we'll, that's, , Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring Organizations: Federal Reserve, AFP, Getty, CNBC, Deutsche, Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Global, Congress, Fed Locations: Washington , DC
People visit a riverside in front of the Lujiazui financial district, during the National People's Congress (NPC) in Shanghai, China, March 7, 2023. Aly Song | ReutersAsia-Pacific markets were set to climb on Tuesday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and major U.S. indexes continued their postelection rally. In Japan, the country will be releasing spending data for September, which will offer clues to the policy path ahead for the Bank of Japan. Strong spending data would support the case for the BOJ to raise rates, and vice versa. If stocks follow futures, the Hong Kong index will hit its highest level in about a month.
Persons: Aly Song, Australia's Organizations: National People's Congress, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, China's National People Congress, Bank of Japan, Nikkei Locations: Shanghai, China, Reuters Asia, Pacific, U.S, Asia, Japan, Chicago, Osaka, Hong Kong
The news on Home Depot Telsey Advisory Group, a leader in retail industry analysis, upgraded Home Depot stock to a buy-equivalent outperform on Friday. The news on Best Buy Citi lowered its Best Buy price target to $109 per share from $115 on Friday while maintaining its buy-rating on the stock. BBY YTD mountain Best Buy stock performance year-to-date. Bottom line Despite Citi's concerns, we're sticking with Best Buy. Best Buy should be well-positioned to benefit from falling interest rates if home sales pick up again.
Persons: , Telsey, Jim Cramer, Jim, they're, Donald Trump's, Jim Cramer's, Ting Shen Organizations: Advisory, Depot, Federal, Home Depot, Home, Citi, Trump, CNBC, Home Depot Inc, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: China, Washington , DC
Kent Nishimura | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Powell, in yesterday's press conference, maintained that "the election will have no effect on our policy decisions." "By December, we'll have more data, I guess one more employer report, two more inflation reports and lots of other data," Powell said. — CNBC's Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound and Alex Harring contributed to this report.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kent Nishimura, Jim Reid, Trump, Scott Helfstein, Powell, we'll, that's, , Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring Organizations: FTSE, Federal, CNBC, Deutsche, Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Global, Congress, Fed Locations: GDAXI, Washington, Washington , DC
The font entrance of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, Aug. 5, 2024. Asia-Pacific markets are set to mostly climb on Thursday, after former President Donald Trump won the White House, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. NBC News projects that Trump will win at least 291 Electoral College votes, including key swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Stocks surged in the U.S. after Trump's win, and the same phenomenon is set to repeat itself in Asia. Japan's Nikkei 225 is set to retake the 40,000 mark for the first time in about a month.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Stocks Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, White, NBC News, Trump, Electoral, Japan's Nikkei, Nikkei Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Pacific, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, U.S, Chicago, Osaka
Kostin expects the S&P 500 equal-weighted index and mid-cap stocks to gain from a broadening market. Today, the 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 make up 36% of the entire index by market capitalization. Related storiesThis gap between the top S&P 500 performers and the rest of the index hasn't occurred since the dot-com bubble. "The evidence is strongly in support of the fact that growth rates for high revenue growth companies tend to fade," he added. For that reason, Kostin is expecting the S&P 500 equal-weight SPW index to outperform the market-cap-weighted S&P 500.
Persons: David Kostin, Kostin, , Goldman Sachs, Kostin isn't, that's, he's Organizations: Service, Big Tech, Intel, Microsoft, Cisco
SHANGHAI, CHINA - MARCH 01: Skyscrapers stand at the Pudong Lujiazui Financial District on March 1, 2022 in Shanghai, China. Asia-Pacific markets were set to open mixed Friday, after Wall Street benchmarks the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 suffered their worst day in nearly two months on downbeat Microsoft earnings forecast and Meta results. Traders await a slate of economic data from the region, including third-quarter producer prices index reading from Australia and Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers' index for October. Japan's Nikkei 225 appeared set for a softer open, with the futures contract in Chicago at 38,470 and their counterpart in Osaka at 38,370 against the index's last close of 39,081.25. Futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index stood at 20,432, pointing to a rebound from its last close at 20,317.33.
Persons: Australia's Organizations: Pudong Lujiazui Financial, Nasdaq, Traders, Japan's Nikkei Locations: SHANGHAI, CHINA, Shanghai, China, Asia, Pacific, Australia, Chicago, Osaka
Super Micro is one of the primary vendors for building out Nvidia-based clusters of servers for training and deploying AI models. Super Micro is now at risk of being delisted from the Nasdaq, and has until Nov. 16 to regain compliance with the stock exchange. Ernst & Young was new to the job, having just replaced Deloitte & Touche as Super Micro's accounting firm in March 2023. Since the S&P's announced index changes in March, Super Micro's stock has dropped at least 10% on six separate occasions. — CNBC's Rohan Goswami and Kif Leswing contributed to this report WATCH: Super Micro stock is a 'very risky buy'
Persons: Ernst & Young, Deloitte didn't, hasn't, P's, Dow Jones, Kevin Barry, Barry, , Rohan Goswami, Kif Leswing Organizations: Computer Inc, Bloomberg, Getty, Micro, Nvidia, Ernst, Nasdaq, Mizuho, Deloitte, Touche, CNBC, Ernst & Young, Dell, SEC, Super, Hindenburg Research, Super Micro, U.S, U.S . Super, Whirlpool, P Global Locations: San Jose , California, U.S, That's, U.S .
The Australian flag is in front of Christiansborg Palace in Copenhagen, Denmark, on January 14, 2024. Asia-Pacific markets were set for a mixed open Wednesday after key Wall Street benchmarks rose, with the Nasdaq Composite closing at a new record high as tech stocks gained. Traders in Asia will assess consumer price data out of Australia, with inflation for the quarter ended in September expected to fall to 2.9%, down from 3.8% in the previous quarter. Japan's Nikkei 225 futures pointed to a higher open for the market, with the contract in Chicago at 39,255 and its counterpart in Osaka at 39,160 compared to the index's previous close of 38,903.68. Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures were at 20,746, higher than the index's last close of 20,701.14.
Persons: Australia's Organizations: Nasdaq, Traders, Nikkei Locations: Christiansborg, Copenhagen, Denmark, Asia, Pacific, Australia, Chicago, Osaka, Hong Kong
TOPSHOT - Officials look on as people vote during the general election at a polling station set up at a local school in Tokyo on October 27, 2024. Japan voted on October 27 in its tightest election in years, with new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his juggernaut Liberal Democratic Party facing potentially their worst result since 2009. (Photo by Richard A. Brooks / AFP) (Photo by RICHARD A. BROOKS/AFP via Getty Images)Futures for Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 were mixed Monday after the country saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority in Japan's lower house following elections on Sunday. Public broadcaster NHK has projected the ruling bloc would secure 214 seats, with just one of the total 465 seats undeclared. The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party and the Democratic Party for the People have made significant gains in this election.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Richard A, Brooks, RICHARD A, BROOKS Organizations: Liberal Democratic Party, Getty, Nikkei, Sunday, Public, NHK, Constitutional Democratic Party, Democratic Party for Locations: Tokyo, Japan, AFP, Chicago, Osaka
The S & P 500 typically advances about 7% from November to April, compared to the index's average 2% rise from May to October, according to CFRA Research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall. This year's market strength follows a standout 20% gain for the S & P 500 in 2023's "best six months" period, he noted. "This double-dose of double-digit returns has caused investors to wonder if the market has used up its energy reserves and may be headed for tough times," Stovall wrote. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 has advanced more than 22% in 2024. Stocks were bhigher on both Friday and Monday , with the S & P 500 trading within a hair's breath of this month's all-time high of 5864.67.
Persons: Sam Stovall, Russell, Stocks, Stovall Organizations: Stock Traders, Research, Investors Locations: U.S
The one big fear that could upend the bull market
  + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A chain reaction sparked by continued inflation could put the bull market to rest, according to Trivariate Research. As the bull market enters its third year, investors are wondering how much more room there is to run before a pullback is due. Now, Fed funds futures are pricing in a more than 95% likelihood of another drop to the borrowing costs at the central bank's November gathering, according to CME's FedWatch tool. In 2021 and 2022, Parker said there was a "strong and statistically significant relationship" between Fed funds futures and the price-to-earnings multiple on growth stocks. Though that connection now looks different, the Morgan Stanley alum said he would be "surprised if multiples did not compress meaningfully" if the expectation for the Fed funds rate rises from 3.5% to 5% or above.
Persons: Adam Parker, Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, Parker, Morgan Stanley, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Tudor Jones, Dow Jones Organizations: Research, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Dow
Here are 13 top stocks that are cheap and have above-average earnings growth. Mega-cap growth stocks dusted their smaller peers for 18 months, beginning in early 2023. These firms have above-average earnings growth and cheaper-than-average valuations, and they have an impressive record of outperformance over the last few decades. Without potent earnings, GARP stocks could risk falling into the "value trap" category. Cheaper GARP stocks should become more appealing in that backdrop, according to BMO, and historical performance backs that up.
Persons: , Brian Belski, he's, Belski Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, Service, BMO Capital, BMO, Markets
The slump comes as investors price in higher odds of a Trump win in the upcoming US election. Emerging market stocks are headed for their worst monthly decline since January, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling for a fourth day on Thursday for a 3.1% decline this month. A select few EM stocks have taken the biggest hits, with Samsung, Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan accounting for more than half of the index's fall. "There has been a significant change in investor sentiment, and investors' risk budgets have likely been changing as a function of that." Investors are also expressing disappointment in China's stimulus measures, which initially fueled a rally in EM stocks last month.
Persons: Trump, , It's, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Harris Organizations: Trump, Service, Samsung, Citi Locations: China
Fed outlook pushes dollar to 2-1/2 month peak; yen under pressure
  + stars: | 2024-10-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar hovered at a 2-1/2-month peak on Wednesday as investors adjusted bets toward a gradual reduction of interest rates while keeping an eye on a close presidential election race. The yen remained under pressure as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields marched higher, pushing it to a three-month low. That less dovish outlook for the Fed has helped buoy Treasury yields. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was last up 0.11% at 104.18 after ticking up to 104.19, its highest since Aug. 2. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields kept the heat on the yen which sank to a three-month low of 151.72 against the greenback.
Persons: Matt Simpson, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, there's, Index's Simpson, Komeito, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Republican, Reuters, Democratic U.S, Markets, Trump, greenback, Liberal Democratic Party, of, European Central Bank Locations: Harris, U.S, Japan
Goldman Sachs forecasts muted S&P 500 gains, with a 3% annual return over 10 years. Diversification and equal-weighted S&P 500 exposure may offer better long-term returns. The bank's most bearish scenario would see the S&P 500 decline by an annual 1%, while its more positive calls for a gain of 7%. Goldman SachsAdding an exchange-traded fund that tracks the equal-weighted S&P 500 could be one way to go about it. AdvertisementFurthermore, investors should consider a more mixed asset portfolio of stocks and bonds without tilting toward one more than the other.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , David Kostin, Goldman, There's, Christian Mueller Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Treasury
The bank is adding to the growing numbers of forecasts for a "no landing" of the US economy. Inflation will remain low enough to leave room for the Fed to cut interest rates, boosting stocks. The job market is proving resilient, despite tighter financial conditions and higher interest rates. AdvertisementCooling price growth sets the stage for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates, UBS said, which is bullish for stocks. The strategists added that while investors may see some volatility ahead of the November election, it's unlikely to interrupt more positive market catalysts.
Persons: Organizations: UBS, Fed, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New
The S&P 500 has enjoyed a bull market since October 2022, rising nearly 70%. AdvertisementThe stock market has been experiencing a bull market for the last two years. The Magnificent Seven drove much of the returns for the S&P 500 this year, contributing 34% of the index's total return. Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report 4.2% profit growth for Q3. Ever since World War II, bull markets that have lasted two years continue onwards for a third.
Persons: LPL Financial's Quincy Crosby, , Quincy Crosby, LPL, Crosby, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells, Jack Ablin, Jerome Powell, Buchbinder Organizations: Service, LPL, Federal, Bull, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Morningstar, Cresset Capital Management, Federal Reserve Locations: America
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